Akuntansi-Predicting Future Operating Cash Flows

PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS AND FACTORS
THAT INFLUENCE FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS

(Empirical Examination of Manufacturing Company Listed in the Jakarta
Stock Exchange for year 2003-2006)
A THESIS
Presented as Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements to Obtain the Bachelor
Degree in Accounting Department
By
ANDIKAPUTRI KUSUMA WARDHANI
Student Number: 04312011
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING
INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS
ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY OF INDONESIA
YOGYAKARTA
2008

By
Student Number
: 04312011
Approved by
Content Advisor,
Yuni Nustini, Dra., MAFIS., Ak.
February 4th, 2008
Language Advisor
Lulu Sylvianie, S.IP.
February 4th , 2008
ii

A BACHELOR DEGREE THESIS

By
Student Number : 04312011
Defended before the Board of Examiners
on February 21th, 2008
and Declared Acceptable
Board of Examiners
Examiner 1:
Arief Rahman, SE., M.Com.

Examiner 2:
Yuni Nustini Dra., MAFIS., Ak
Yogyakarta, February 21th, 2008
International Program
Faculty of Economics
Islamic University of Indonesia
Dean
Asmai Ishak, Drs., M.Bus., Ph.D
iii
DECLARATION OF AUTHENTICITY
Herein I declare the originality of this thesis; there is no other work which has
ever which presented to obtain any university degree, and in my concern there is
neither one elses opinion nor published written work, except acknowledged
quotations relevant to the topic of this thesis which have been stated or listed on
this thesis bibliography. If in the future this statement is not proven as is
supposed to be, I am willing to accept any sanction complying with the
determined regulation for its consequence
Yogyakarta, February 4, 2008
Andikaputri Kusuma Wardhani
iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
A journey is easier when you travel together. Interdependence is

certainly more valuable than independence. This thesis is the result of three and
half years of work whereby I have been accompanied and supported by many
people who have made this thesis possible. It is a pleasant aspect that I have
now the opportunity to express my gratitude for all of them.
First of all, I would like to thank to Allah SWT for the opportunity given to
me to live in this world. Only by His blessing and compassion, I could live my life
as the way I am and feels like lucky girl by given many ease, and a good
chance.
My greatest appreciation goes to my thesis advisor, Yuni Nustini Dra.,
MAFIS., Ak., whom I always consider as open - minded person for the support,
criticism, and advises during the supervision time. I owe him lots of gratitude for
having me shown this way of research. She could not even realize how much I
have learned from him. I would like also to convey my sincere gratitude to Ms
Lulu Sylvianie, S.Sos. for her willingness to be my language advisor, and thank you
for correcting my thesis quickly.
My deepest gratitude goes to my family for their unflagging love and
support throughout my life; this thesis is simply impossible without them. I am
indebted to my father, H.Kenny Wardhana S.H, for his care and love. He worked
hard to support the family and spare no effort to provide the best possible
environment for me to grow up and attend school. He had never complained in
spite of all the hardships in his life. I cannot ask for more from my mother, Hj Umy
Sholikhah, as she is simply perfect. I have no suitable word that can fully describe
her everlasting love to me. I remember her constant support when I
encountered difficulties. You are amazing women, my best friend and the best
mom in the world for me.
For my sister Dek Arum (Mangu Cosmos)
temperamental girl, we will together until the end OK? Thank you for sleeping
together for 21 years. My brother Dek Adi be nice and be mature ya and thank
you for keeping the laptop and printer work well. Bro and Sis thank you for
rendering me the sense and the value of brotherhood. I am glad to be one of
them.
I debt special thanks to Maulana Dihaan Tadiska (Liuk) The love you
gave comforts me deep inside my soul, you teach me how to love and make
me confident with my self, you just like Sunshine in the cloudy day. Thank you for
have been accompanying me for 6 years 3 months and together we make our
dreams come true. Also mas Diskas familiy; Tante Istiqomah, Om Munadjad, Mb
Ririn thank you for rendering the books and for sharing your experience, Dek
Ditto and Dek Nanin.
To my entire friend at Accounting International Program 2004, who are
inspiring me in making this thesis, thank you for all of the inspirations and ideas
that I used in my thesis, especially for Sari who teach me about Regression,
Amita and Nuri that always give attention to me, Diat for our many discussions
and providing me brotherly advises and tips that helped me a lot in staying at
the right track, Rika who helped me much in getting things formal in a correct
way and Seto my friends under Ms Yuni thesis advisory, and for all my friends
good luck with your thesis.
Finally, to all of the lectures who have shared their knowledge and staff
in International Program, thank you and may Allah bless you all.
vi
TABLE OF CONTENT
PAGE OF TITLE ..
APPROVAL PAGE ..
ii
LEGALIZATION PAGE .
iii
DECLARATION OF AUTHENTICITY .
iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS . vii

LIST OF TABLES xi
LIST OF FIGURES ... xii
LIST OF APPENDICES ... xiii
ABSTRACT . xiv
ABSTRAK xv
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION .... 1
1.1 Background of The Study 2
1.2 Problem Identification ..... 4
1.3 Problem Formulation ... 6
1.4 Problem Limitation .. 7
1.5 Research Objectives ...... 7
1.6 Research Contributions . 7
1.7 Definition of Terms .. 8
CHAPTER II: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE 10
2.1 Introduction . 10
2.2 Theoretical Review . 10
2.3 Hypotheses Formulation . 14
2.4 Theoretical Framework .. 16
2.4.1 Financial Statement ... 17
2.4.2 Statement of Cash Flows 18
2.4.3 Cash Flows from Operation .. 19
vii
2.4.4 Direct and Indirect Method .. 20

2.4.5 Cash flows and Accrual Earnings 23
CHAPTER III: RESEARCH METHOD
3.1 Research Method 27
3.2 Research Subject 27
3.3 Research Setting . 28
3.4 Research Instrument ..
28
3.4.1 Validity and Relevance of Data 28

3.5 Research Data and Variables . 29
3.6 Research Procedure ... 33
3.7 The Test of Classical Assumption Regression .
34
3.7.1. Multicollinearity Test ..
34
3.7.2 The Heteroscedasticity Test .
34
3.7.3 Normality Testing . 35

3. 8 Technique Data Analysis .. 35
3.8. Formulated Hypothesis and Hypothesis Testing .. 41
3.8.1. Formulated Hypothesis ..
41
3.8.2. Hypothesis Testing .. 42

3.8.2.1 Simultaneous Regression Testing (F test) .. 43
3.8.2.2 Partial Regression Testing (t test) .. 44
CHAPTER IV: REASEARCH FINDINGS, DISCUSSION, AND
IMPLICATIONS .. 45
4.1 Descriptive Statistics .. 46
4.2 Quality Data Test ........................................................................... 47
4.3 Classical Asumption Test ............................................................... 48
4.3.1 Multicollinearity Test ............................................................ 48
4.3.2 Heteroscedastisity Test .. 50
viii
4.4 Hypothesis Testing . 51

4.4.1 The First Hypothesis to Find the Ability of Cash Flow from
Operating Activities to Predict the Future Cash Flows
51
4.4.1.1 Simultaneous Regression Test ( F Test) .................. 51

4.4.1.2 Coefficient Determination ...
52
4.4.1.3 Regression Analysis . 53

4.4.2 The Second Hypothesis to Measure the Different Persistence
Level between Cash Flow Components (Core and Non-core) in
Predicting Future Cash Flow 54
4.4.2.1 Simultaneous Regression Test ( F Test) ................... 54
4.4.2.2 Coefficient Determination 55
4.4.2.3 Regression Analysis . 55
4.4.3 The Third Hypothesis to Prove that Aggregate Cash Flows Are
Incrementally Informative Beyond Accruals Components in
Predicting Future Cash Flows .
57
4.4.3.1 Simultaneous Regression Test ( F Test) .................
57
4.4.3.2 Coefficient Determination 57

4.4.3.3 Regression Analysis .. 58
4.4.4 The Fourth Hypothesis to Measure the Superiority of Cash
Flows Component (core and non-core) Beyond Accruals
Components in Predicting Future Cash Flows .. 59
4.4.4.1 Simultaneous Regression Test ( F Test) ................... 59
4.4.4.2 Coefficient Determination . 60
4.4.4.3 Regression Analysis .. 60
4.4.5 Pair West Test . 62
ix
CHAPTER V: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Research Conclusions .63
5.2 Research Recommendations .. 64
LIST OF TABLES
Table 4.1 : The Election of Research Sample .. 45

Table 4.2 : Descriptive Statistics ... 46
Table 4.3 : Multicollinearity Test ................................................................. 49
Table 4.4 : Simultaneous RegressionTest (F test) ....................................... 52
Table 4.5 : Coefficient Determination .. 52
Table 4.6 : Regression 53
Table 4.7 : Simultaneous RegressionTest (F test) ....................................... 54
Table 4.8 : Coefficient Determination .. 55
Table 4.9 : Regression 55
Table 4.10: Simultaneous RegressionTest (F test) 57
Table 4.11: Coefficient Determination .. 57
Table 4.12: Regression 58
Table 4.13: Simultaneous RegressionTest (F test) ....................................... 59
Table 4.14: Coefficient Determination .. 59
Table 4.15: Regression .... 60
Table 4.16: Pair-west Test .. 62
xi
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1: Cash Flows Classified by Major Activities .. 19
Figure 1.2 : General Process under the Direct Approach .. 22
Figure 1.3 : General Process of the Indirect Approach .. 22
Figure 4.1 : P Plot 47
Figure 4.2 : Heteroscedastisity Test .. 50
xii
LIST OF APPENDICES
Appendic 1: List of Companies ... 1
Appendic 2: Data for Each Variable .. 2
Appendic 3: Coefficient Regression 12
xiii

ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to examine the ability of cash flows component from
operating activity to predict the future cash flows which done by manufacturing
companies that have been go public in Indonesia based on their financial
statements. As much as 76 manufacturing firm listed in the Jakarta Stock
Exchange each year were taken as sample using a purposive sampling method.
The statistical method used to test hypotheses is a multi linier regression. There
are four equations that will be used in the research. The result of this study for
the first equation shows that cash flow in current year positively and significantly
has ability to predict future cash flows, for second equation cash flows components
(core and non-core) do reflect different information relating to future cash flows.
For third equation we also find that the disaggregation of cash flow into aggregate
cash flows and accrual components significantly enhances cash flow prediction.
Hence, for the fourth equation the inclusion of cash flow components and accrual
components provide significant improvement in cash flow prediction than aggregate
cash flows and accrual components alone.
Keywords: Cash Flows, Accruals, Cash Flow Prediction, Core and Non-Core Cash
Flows, Cash Flow Variability
xiv
MEMPREDIKSI ARUS KAS AKTIVITAS OPERASI DAN

FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI ARUS KAS DARI
AKTIVITAS OPERASI DI MASA DEPAN
( Pengujian Empiris Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa
Efek Jakarta Tahun 2003 2006)
ABSTRAK
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menguji kemampuan komponen arus kas dari
aktivitas operasi untuk memprediksi arus kas di masa depan dengan
menggunakan laporan keuangan perusahaan manufaktur di Indonesia.
Penelitian ini mengambil 76 perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa
Efek Jakarta sebagai sample dengan cara metode purposive sampling. Metode
yang digunakan untuk menguji hipotesis adalah regresi multi linear. Ada empat
persamaan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Hasil dari penelitian ini untuk
persamaan pertama yaitu arus kas di tahun tertentu secara positif dan signifikan
mempunyai kemampuan untuk memprediksi arus kas di masa depan. Untuk
persamaan yang kedua yaitu komponen arus kas (inti dan bukan inti)
menunjukkan informasi yang berbeda dalam memprediksi arus kas dimasa
depan. Untuk persamaan yang ketiga yaitu pengujian sample dengan
memisahkan arus kas menjadi kumpulan arus kas dan komponen akrual hasilnya
menunjukkan secara sigifikan meningkatkan prediksi arus kas. Dan untuk
persamaan yang keempat yaitu penggabungan komponen arus kas dan
komponen akrual menunjukkan peningkatan yang signifikan dalm memprediksi
arus kas daripada kumpulan arus kas dan component akrual.
Kata kunci: Arus Kas, Memprediksi Arus Kas, Arus Kas Inti dan Bukan Inti,
Kemampuan Arus Kasi
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1. Study Background

The primary purpose of a statement of cash flows is to presents the
information about the historical changes in cash and cash equivalents of an
enterprise by means of a cash flow statement which classifies cash flows
during the period according to operating, investing and financing activities.
Statement of cash flows is part of financial statement whose item under
statement of cash flows section is the combination of the balance sheet
(purchase of assets, for example) and the income statement (cash received
from the sale of good, for example) affecting cash and cash equivalents. Cash
and cash equivalents comprise cash on hand and demand deposits, together
with short-term, highly liquid investments that are readily convertible to a
known amount of cash and that are subject to an insignificant risk of changes
in value.
Furthermore,
International
Accounting
Standard
7.1
is
the
International Accounting Standard that deals with cash flow statements

determining that All enterprises that prepare financial statements in
conformity with IAS are required to present a cash flow statement. On
September 1994, Komite Standar Akuntansi Ikatan Akuntan Indonesia (The
Accounting Standard Committee of Indonesian Accountant Institute) released
PSAK (Pernyataan Standar Akuntansi Keuangan) No.2 mandating the
presentation of cash flow statement. Then, starting from January 1, 1995 the
IAI (Indonesian Institute of Accountants) requires companies to publish
statement of cash flow.
Reporting the source, uses, and net increase or decrease in cash will
help investor, creditors, and others know what is happening to a companys
most liquid resource. Cash flow information is also useful to evaluate the
companys ability to produce cash and cash equivalent and make possible for
the user to develop the model to evaluate and to compare the present value of
the future cash flow, and thereby, firm value.
Key principles specified by IAS 7 for the preparation of a cash flow statement are
as follows:
Operating activities are the main revenue-producing activities of the
enterprise that are not investing or financing activities, so operating cash flows
includes cash received from customers and cash paid to suppliers and employees
[IAS 7.14] Operating activities include the production, sales and delivery of the
company's product as well as collecting payment from its customers. This could
include purchasing raw materials, building inventory, advertising and shipping
the product.
Investing activities are the acquisition and disposal of long-term assets
and other investments that are not considered to be cash equivalents [IAS 7.6]
Items under Investing Activities include capital expenditures, which include

purchases (and sales) of property, plant and equipment , investments.
Financing activities are activities that alter the equity capital and
borrowing structure of the enterprise [IAS 7.6] Financing activities include the
inflow of cash from investors such as banks and shareholders, as well as the
outflow of cash to shareholders as dividends as the company generates income.
Other activities which impact the long-term liabilities and equity of the company
are also listed in the financing activities section of the cash flow statement. Items
under the Financing activities section include dividends paid, sale or repurchase
of the company's stock Net borrowings.
The operating activity also shows what the cash effects of transactions
that enter into the determination of net income. As an analytical tool the
statement of cash flows is useful in determining the short-term viability of a
company, particularly its ability to pay bills, maintain the company ability in
operations, pay dividend and to make a new investment. Cash flow from
operation generally comes from other transactions and event, which influence
earning or net loss
Interest and dividends received and paid may be classified as operating,
investing, or financing cash flows, provided that they are classified consistently
from period to period [IAS 7.31], cash flows arising from taxes on income are
normally classified as operating, unless they can be specifically identified with
financing or investing activities [IAS 7.35] and for operating cash flows, the
direct method of presentation is encouraged, but the indirect method is acceptable

[IAS 7.18]
1.2. Problem Identification
This research tries to confirm about the cash flow from the operating
activities component to predict future cash flows. The reason why most
researches emphasis in the cash flow from operations is that most valuation
models suggest that unexpected operating cash inflow or outflows in the current
period should influence share prices through their effect in the current and future
cash flows
The result of prior research has shown that current period cash flows
better in predicting earning than current period accruals (e.g.,Sloan 1996) and
the result of investigating the aggregate cash flows and accrual components
has different level of significantly with aggregate cash flows and aggregate
accruals in predicting future cash flows ( Dechow 1998). However, these
studies do not clearly investigate the usefulness of cash flow components from
operating activity in predicting future cash flows. The other research shows
that aggregate cash flows and accrual components enhance cash flow
prediction beyond aggregate cash flows and aggregate accruals. It means that
accrual components contribute to predicting next periods cash flows. (e.g,
Barth, Cram, and Nelson 2001)
The research done by Hollie and Cheng (2004) tries to use cash flow
from operating activities to predict future cash flows and divide the cash
flows from operating activity into core and non-core cash flow based on the
recommendation which is stated by AICPA (American Institute of Certified
Public Accountants) that firms should distinguish between the financial effect
of a companys core (major or central operation) and non-core (peripheral or
incidental activities) operating activities from cash flows, thereby, presenting
the best possible information in which to analyze trends in a firm without the
potential distortive effects of non-core activities.
This research defines the variable from financial statement to be core
and non-core cash flows. Core cash flow which the data taken from income
statement is defined as cash flow related to sales, cost of good sold and
operating expenses while non-core cash flow which the data taken from
statement of cash flows is defined as cash flow related to interest, taxes and
other expenses. And then address the issue of whether cash flow components
(core and non-core cash flows) have similar persistence and persist more than
non-core cash flows related to taxes and other expenses. It also explains that
the persistence of the coefficients for non-core cash flow components is
significantly less than those for core cash flow components. The result is
relevant to academic researchers using cash flow prediction models to
measure financial reporting quality and it also relevant to financial statement
users interested in better predicting a firms future cash flows.
The explanation above is about research done by Hollie and Cheng
(2004) who used data from Compustat annual industrial, research and full
coverage files and specifically data from Manufacture Company in America.
For this research, I try to implement the Hollie and Cheng theories in
Indonesia which has different company and accounting method. In America,
they usually use indirect method in presenting statement of cash flows but in
Indonesia the presentation of statements of cash flow should be presented by
using direct method. A different method in accounting will affect the form of
financial statement and the calculation. Direct method cannot reflect the
existence of core and non-core components, it only gives direct information
about non-core components. Because of that condition, this research will
make calculation for the core component from combination of income
statement and balance sheet.
Based on above explanation, I am interested to examine the ability of the
component of cash flow from operation which is defined as core component and
non-core component to predict the future cash flows. The research will be done at
the Jakarta Stock exchange as a developing market. According to the
background, the writer entitled this thesis Predicting Future Cash Flows
Using Cash Flows from Operating Activity Components
1.3. Problem Formulation
Based on the main idea and argumentation from the background
above I will be proposing a formulating problem such as:
1. Does aggregate cash flow from operating activities have the ability to predict
the future cash flows manufacturing companies listed on Jakarta stock Exchange?
2. Do cash flow components (core and non core) have different persistence
level in predicting the future cash flows of manufacturing companies listed on
Jakarta stock Exchange?
3. Do aggregate cash flows are incrementally informative beyond accruals
components in predicting the future cash flows of manufacturing companies
listed on Jakarta stock Exchange?
4. Do cash flows component are incrementally informative beyond accruals
components in predicting the future cash flows of manufacturing companies
listed on Jakarta stock Exchange?
1.4. Problem Limitation
To avoid misunderstanding and misappropriates in this research, the
research will restrict the scope and size of proposed study as follows;
1. This research will obtain the data from the manufacturing
companies, which are listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) from 2003 until
2006.
2. The published financial reporting in the year ended on 31st December
includes the statement of cash flows for 2003-2006.
1.5.Research Objectives
The objectives of this research are:
1. Aggregate cash flow from operating activities has ability to predict future
cash flows.
2. Cash flow components (core and non core) have different persistence level in
predicting the future cash flows.
3. Aggregate cash flows are incrementally informative beyond accruals
components in predicting the future cash flows.
4. Cash flows component are incrementally informative beyond accruals
1.6. Research Contribution
The benefits or advantages of the research are:
1. This research is relevant for the management of the firm to make decisions.
Such as to determine whether their prediction of future operations can deliver
sufficient cash flow to settle a debt, to maintain company operations, or to
pay dividend.
2. This research is also relevant to academic researchers to extend the model in
predicting the future cash flows to assess the financial reporting quality of the
firm.
3. This research is relevant for financial statement users to assess the effect of
company operating activities toward the financial position of the company
and toward the amount of cash and cash equivalent .
1.7 Definition of Terms
Key word: Cash flow, Statement of cash flow, core cash flow, noncore cash flow, Accrual basis, direct method of reporting cash flow, indirect
method of reporting cash flows. The writer will elaborate more about this
term.
1) Cash Flows are a cash or cash equivalent inflow and outflows.
2) The Statement of cash flows is reports a firms major cash inflows and
outflow for a period. It provides useful information about a firms ability to
generate cash from operation, maintains and expands its operating capacity,
meets its financial obligations, and pays dividends. The Statement of cash flows
also provide information to managers in evaluating past operations, in planning
future investing and financing activities. The statement of cash flows reports cash
flows by three types of activities: cash flows from operating activities are cash
flows from transaction that affect net income. Examples of such transaction
include the purchase and sale of merchandise. Cash flows from investing
activities are cash flows from transaction that affect the investment in non current
assets. Examples of cash inflows include the sale and purchase of plant assets,
such as equipment and buildings and for cash outflows include payments to
acquire plan assets and investment. Cash flows from financing activities are cash
flows from transaction that affect the equity and debt of the entity. Examples of
cash inflow include the issuance or retirement of equity and debt securities, for
cash outflows are the payment of cash dividend, and the payment of debt (Fess &
Warren 21st edition).
3) Core cash flow is a cash flow related to sales, cost of good sold and
operating expenses.
10
4) Non-Core cash flow is a cash flow related to interest, taxes and other
expenses.
5) Accrual basis is Basis of accounting, whose revenues are recognized in
the period earned and expenses are recognized in the period incurred in the
process of generating revenues.
6) Direct method reports the source of operating cash and the uses of
operating cash. The major source of operating cash is received from customers.
The major uses of operating cash include cash paid to supplier for merchandise
and service and cash paid to employees for wages.
7) Indirect method reports the operating cash flows from net income and
adjusting it for revenues and expenses that do not involve the receipt or payment
of cash.
CHAPTER II
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
2.1 Introduction
This chapter contains the previous studies and the relevant theories used
in conducting this research about the predicting the future cash flows. The first
part presents the theoretical review that gives us the insight of the findings from
experts and other researchers. Several lessons can be found in such findings,
especially those related to cash flows and its components. The second part is
related to the theoretical framework that provides better understanding in
11
financial statement and cash flows. The theoretical frame work will be explained
step by step started from financial statements, statement of cash flow, cash flow
from operations, presentation of cash flow from operation: direct and indirect
method, information content: cash flows and accrual earnings.
2.2 Theoretical Review

Some researches find that the result examining the earning is not accurate
anymore to predict the future cash flows, but the research below explain that
prediction of operating cash flows show increasing forecast accuracy for short
time period of research.
Previous literature investigates the relationship between earnings and
future cash flows over the 1980s and the 1990s. For example research done by
Myungsun and Kross, (July 2002). The result of the research stated that the
relationship between earnings and future cash flows has increased over time. This
result holds for older (surviving) firms and newer firms, dividend paying and
non-paying firms, firms that earned profits or incurred losses, and for small and
mid-sized firms. Large firms showed neither improvement nor deterioration. Outof-sample predictions of operating cash flows show increasing forecast accuracy
over time for one, two, and three year-ahead cash flows. This statement
supported by DeFond and Hung (2003) found that there is an increasing trend of
market participants demandingand financial analysts makingcash flow
forecasts. Their findings further validate the increasing importance of financial
statement users ability to adequately predict future cash flows. In contrast, cash
12
flow includes as a primitive valuation construct argue that and cash flow
prediction is fundamental to assessing firm value.
Brooks (1981) used a time series analysis to investigate if addition of
earnings information to past cash flows would give better predictions of future
cash flows than would past cash flows alone. Based on quarterly Compustat data
for thirty firms, the researcher did not find a general improvement in the ability
to forecast cash flows when earnings information was added. Bowen et al. (1986)
assessed the ability of accrual earnings and five measures of cash flow to predict
one- and two-period ahead cash flows against a random walk prediction of
CFFO. A final sample of 324 firms on Compustat for the period 1971-1981 was
used. The results indicated that the traditional measures of cash flows (i.e., net
income plus depreciation and amortization(NIDPR) and WCFO) were
statistically superior predictors of future CFFO than either earnings or CFFO and
the random walk models performed as well as (and often better than) models
based on other flow variables. Thus, the results did not support the FASB's
assertions of superiority of earnings for predicting future cash flows. The British
study by Arnold et al.(1991) and the Australian study by Percy and Stokes
(1992), who used the research methodology applied by Bowen et al. (1986),
provide consistent results with that of Bowen et al. (1986).
The other literature that examines the association between earnings
and cash flows in predicting the future earnings and future cash flows that
applied in Indonesia, for example in the research done by Syafriadi (2000). By
using earning and cash flow as research variables, shows that earnings as an
13
independent variable have better influencing earnings as dependent variable

compare with the use of cash flows as predictor to earnings. But earnings are
not significant in predicting the future cash flow. This result also explains that
earning doesnt have the ability to predict incrementally comparing with cash
flows.
Research which examines the association between earnings and cash
flows in predicting earnings and cash flows is also done by Parawiyati and
Baridwan (1998). Using purposive random sampling for 288 financial reports
from 48 manufacturing companies listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange from 1989
to 1994. By using earnings and cash flows from operation as dependent and
independent variable, this research also examine many problems which are;
firstly whether earnings and cash flows are the predictor to determine future
earnings, secondly whether earnings and cash flows are the predictor to
determine future cash flow, and the last is to whether earnings are
incrementally beyond cash flows in giving the prediction. The results of this
research show that both earnings and cash flow as independent variables have
the ability to be the predictor. Meanwhile, compared to cash flows, earning
has a better ability to predict cash flows.
While the other prior researches that examined about accruals earnings are
superior to cash flow from operations in explaining future cash flows, stock
return, etc. This statement carried as FASB statement declared that using earning
to predict future cash flows is much better compared to the use of cash flows as
predictor.
14
There are two researches that agree and disagree with the statement
declared by FASB. First, researches that agree using earning as a better predictor
in predicting future cash flow than the cash flows itself is Greenberg, et al.
(1986), and who disagree with FASB statement is (Finger, 1994; and
Burgstahler, 1998). They states that current cash flows have more predictive
ability when predicting future cash flows than current earnings in the shorthorizon.
The researcher tries to implement the American model which is used
by Hollie and Cheng (2004) in Indonesia. Both Hollie and Cheng suggest that
both current periods of earnings and current period of cash flows are important
determinants in predicting the future cash flows. They classify cash flow from
operations into two components; core and non-core cash flows and then they
address the issue or not whether those components reflect different
information relating to future cash flows. They also provide evidence as to
whether cash flows components are incrementally informative beyond accrual
components and aggregated cash flows alone in predicting future cash flows.
Although this research use some literatures as references and use
research done by Hollie and Cheng (2004) as basis, there are some differences
between this research and other research as follows;
1. Samples used in this research are manufacturing companies listed in Jakarta
Stock Exchange (JSX) from 2003-2006.
2. This research tries to implement AICPA recommendation that firms should
distinguish between the financial effects of companys core (major or central
15
operations) and non-core (peripheral or incidental activities) cash flow, in

Indonesia.
3. PSAK no.2 stated that the presentation of cash flow should use direct
method. Thats why almost all of the companies listing in Jakarta use direct
method in presenting their statement of cash flow. Thus, this research will
take the core component of cash flow from the income statements and
balance sheets.
2.3 Hypotheses Formulation
According to PSAK No.2, company must arrange the cash flow statement
based on the requirement and they must present that statement as an integrated
part of the financial report for every period of financial report presentation.
One of the main objective of presenting the data regarding cash flow is to
provide information that is assumed that it will (1) Help the investor or
creditor in predicting the amount of cash to be distributed in the future in the
form of dividends or interest and in the form of liquidation and distribution or
repayment of principal and (2) aid in the evaluation of risk. Risk in this
context, include both the expected variability of future returns and the
probability of insolvency or bankruptcy (Hendriksen, 1982).
PSAK also stated that the historical information of cash flow is often used
as an indicator of quantity, time, and the certainty of future cash flow
appraisal that has been made before and to determine the relationship between
profitability and net cash flow and also the effect of prices changes. The
approach of accounting objectives that assumes a set of unknown users of
16
financial reports has also assumed that information regarding wealth and or
economic transactions of an enterprise is relevant for the many data needs of
the users. To be relevant, information must be logically related to a given
decision (Kam, 1986). SAK through its framework for the preparation and
presentation of financial statements points out that the information has the
relevance quality when it influences the users economic decisions by helping
them in evaluating past, present or future events or confirming, or correcting
their past evaluation.
Thus, to be relevant the information presented in financial statement
must fulfill certain criterias:
1. The information must have predictive values; it means its resulted from it has
a basic to predict the future.
2. Feed back values, it means that the information must have value to evaluate
the previous things.
3. Timeliness, the measurement of timeliness is when the information content
still reflects economic position when the statement is presented (Kam, 1982).
If the accounting information is relevant, so that it can predict the
future activities of the company and can reduce the uncertainty about the
variables in decision process, then it is important to test the ability of cash
flow component, as a part of financial statement, to predict future cash flow.
That is why the hypothesis of this research can be generated as follows:
17
H1
= Cash flow from operating activities have the ability to predict the future
cash
H2
flows.
= Cash flow components (core and non core) have different persistence
level in predicting the future cash flows.
H3
= Aggregate cash flows are incrementally informative beyond accruals

H4
= Cash flows component are incrementally informative beyond accruals

components in predicting the future cash flows
2.4 Theoretical Framework

Accounting is a service activity. Its function is to provide useful
information about economic entities to managers, investors, creditors, and other
interested parties. Accounting may be described as a measurementcommunication activity, since the usefulness of accounting information depends
on effective measurements to users of accounting information. Accounting
information can de divided into two; financial accounting and financial reporting.
Financial accounting is measuring and recording an entitys economic activities
and financial reporting is communicating the record data to external users.
2.4.1 Financial statement
Financial statement is a central feature of financial reporting, and is the
principal means of communicating the effects of business transaction and other
economic event. Financial statement is a formal tabulation of account names and
amount of money derived from the accounting records maintained by a business
18
entity. Financial statements display either the financial position of the entity at a
point in time or various kinds of changes in financial position of the entity over a
period of time.
The financial statements required under GAAP (Generally Accepted
Accounting Principles) are:
1) Balance Sheet also called the statement of financial position, reports an
entitys assets, liabilities, and equity at the end of each accounting period.
2) The income statement reports revenues, expenses, gain, losses, and the
resulting net income or loss. Thus it summarizes a companys earnings
performance during an accounting period.
3) The statement of changes in owners equity summarizes transaction affecting
owners equity during an accounting period.
4) Statement of cash flows summarizes cash inflows and outflows from
operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities during the
accounting period.
2.4.2 Statement of cash flows

Statement of cash flows provides information regarding a companys cash
inflows and outflows during an accounting period. The statement of cash flows
provides information that, together with the information in the other financial
statement, should explain about 1) a companys ability to generate positive future
net cash flows 2) a companys ability to meet its obligation and its need for
external financing and to pay dividends; 3) understand the difference between a
19
companys net income and its net cash flows; and 4) determine the effect on a
companys financial position of its investing and financing transaction during
period (Weygand & Kieso, 12th ed.).
The statement of cash flows must provide information about a companys
operating, investing, and financing activities. In an effort to respond to the
common practice of investing idle and cash in highly liquid assets, Statement
No.95 requires that companies treat cash and cash equivalents as a single pool for
reporting purposes.
Statement of cash flows is useful for both internal party (management)
and external party (investor and creditor). Management use the statement of
cash flows to appraise liquidity, determine the dividend policy, and evaluate
the impact of the decision relate to the main policy in investing and financing
activities. External parties use the statement of cash flows as the basic to
evaluate the firms ability in producing cash and cash equivalent.
Figure 1.1
Cash Flows Classified by Major Activities
INFLOWS
Operating activities:
Collection from customer
debt
Receipts of interest and dividends
securities
Other operating cash receipts
Investing activities:
Collections on loans
Financing activities:
Issuance of long term
Sale of certain debt
Issuance
of
equity
Sale or productive assets
20
Pool of Cash
OUTFLOWS
Operating activities:
Payments suppliers
Payments to employees
entitys
Interest payments
Investing activities:
Purchase of productive assets
Purchase of Debt or equity
Financing activities:
Payment of dividends
Acquisition of an
making loans
own equity securities
Payment of income taxes

Other operating cash payments
Repayment of amounts
borrowed
2.4.3 Cash Flows from Operations

Based on PSAK No.2 year 2002 statement of cash flows must report
cash flow within certain period and classified based on the operating activities,
investment activities, and funding activities.
The amount of cash flows from operations is an indicator to determine
whether from their operating activities company can produce sufficient cash
flows to settle a debt, maintain the firms ability in company operations, pay
dividend and make a new investment. The examples of cash flows from
operations are:
1. Revenue from sales or services.
2. Revenue from royalty, fees, commissions and other revenue.
3. Cash Payment to the supplier.
4. Cash payment to the employee.
21
5.
Revenue and payment by the insurance company in connecting with

insurance premium, claim, annuity and other benefit of insurances.
6. Cash disbursement or cash receipt (restitution) of income tax except if it

can be specifically identify as a part of financing activity and investing
activity.
7. Cash receive and cash payment from contract which is held for business
transaction and trading.
Investing activities are acquisition and dismissal of long-term assets
and also other investment, which is not including in cash equivalent.
Financing activities are activities result in change in capital amount and
composition and company loan.
2.4.4 Presentation of Cash Flow from Operation: Direct and Indirect
Method
In November 1987, FASB issued SFAS 95, Statement of Cash Flows,
which required businesses to issue a statement of cash flows rather than a
statement of changes in financial position, effective July 15, 1988. FASB made
the decision to encourage, but not require, the use of the direct method for
reporting. Both the direct and indirect methods require cash flows to be classified
according to operating, investing, and financing activities. The different
presentation affects the operating section only. The investing and financing
sections do not differ between the two presentations.
The direct method also referred to as the income statement method,
reports major classes of operating cash receipts and payments. In this respect, it
22
is more consistent with the objective of SFAS 95. Supporters of the direct
method contend that it is more revealing of a companys ability to generate
sufficient cash from operations to pay debts, reinvest in operations, and make
distributions to owners. Detractors point out that many corporate providers of
financial statements do not currently collect information that would allow them
to determine the information necessary to prepare the direct method. More
important, the direct method effectively presents income statement information
on a cash rather than an accrual basis and may erroneously suggest that net cash
flow from operations is as good as, or better than, net income as a measure of
performance (Mahoney, Sever and Theis, 1988).
The indirect or reconciliation method focuses on the difference between
net income and net cash flow from operations. Advocates of the indirect method
note that it provides a useful link among the statement of cash flows, the income
statement, and the balance sheet. Critics point out that the direct method requires
a supplemental disclosure to present a reconciliation of net income and net cash.
The incremental cost of providing the additional information disclosed in the
direct method is, however, not significant.
Figure 1.2
General Process under the Direct Approach of Adjusting Accrual-Basis Income
Statement Accounts to obtain ash Flows from Operating Activities
Income Statement
Accounts (Accrual Basis)
Balance Sheet Accounts
Cash flow Statement
23
Revenues
Adjust revenues to obtain

cash flows
Cost of good sold
Adjust cost of good sold

to obtain cash flows to suppliers
Net cash flows

from operating
activities
Expenses (other than COGS) Adjust expenses to obtain cash flows

Figure 1.3
General Process of the Indirect Approach to Determining Cash Flows

from Operating Activities
Income
Addition to Net income
Deduction from Net Income
Statement
N/I
Statement
of cash flows
+ Loss on sale investment
- gain on sale of investment
+ Loss related to extraordinary item
- gain related to extraordinary item Net
+ Loss on sale of property, plan
- gain on sale of property, plan
+ decrease in inventory
- increase in inventories
+ Decrease in operating receivables
- increasing in operating receivables activities
+ Increase in account payable
- decrease in account payable
+ Increase in accrued liabilities
- decrease in accrued liabilities
cash flows
from op.
+ Increase in deferred taxes payable - decrease in deferred taxes payable
2.4.5 Information Content: Cash flows and Accrual Earnings

One of the fundamental features of company financial reports is that it is
prepared using accrual rather than cash accounting. Unlike cash accounting,
accrual accounting distinguishes between the recording of cost and benefits
associated with economic activities and the actual payment and receipt of cash
and the accrual basis ensures that the expenses incurred are properly matched
with the revenues they generate. When the accrual basis of accounting is used,
revenues are reported in the period in which they are earned. Generally accepted
accounting principles also require the use of the accrual basis. And based on
24
FASB, 1978, par. 43, 44, accounting earnings and its components provide a
better indication of a firm's ability to generate future cash flows than information
about cash flows themselves.
From many researches there are three predictive ability of accrual-based
information to that of cash flow information:
1 Bankruptcy prediction (Casey and Bartczak, 1984)
2 Predicting security returns (Board and Day, 1989)
3 Predicting operating cash flows (Murdoch and Krause, 1990)
The accrual accounting data also can give the information that is useful for:
1. Predicting the risky sign in financial sector.
2. Detecting the risk, size and schedule in deciding credits.
3. Predicting credits rate.
4. Assessing company performance.
5. Presenting additional information in capital market.
Besides predicting companys prospectus using earning, we can use
cash flows information to figure out;
1. Financial structure and ability to detect the amount and time for cash
flow to adapt with different conditions and opportunities.
2. Changes in company net assets
3. Firm ability in producing cash and cash equivalent
But from the comparison between accrual earnings and cash flows and
those entire strengths of accrual measurement process, from an extensive
25
research found that cash flows information to determine the corporate earning
has crucial complimentary information to accrual information. Eight
advantages of cash flows are set out below:
1. Cash-flow accounting would rely on the price/discounted flow ration there is
more reliable investment indicator than the present price/earning ratio
because of the arbitrary allocations which are used to compute the present
accrual earnings per share figure and the international differences in the
computation of earning per share.
2. In contrast to accrual-based earnings, cash-flow accounting retains money as
the unit of measurement, which is familiar and not confusing to people.
3. If the investors interest is in the survival of the firm, together with their
ability to provide a stream of dividend, then cash-flow accounting will prove
more useful by providing accounting information about the current and
anticipated cash positions of the firm. Liquidity assessment is a critical aspect
of performance evaluation in the sense that cash flow and net profit are the
end result of a firms activities.
4. Cash flow does not require price-level adjustments (which can distort
reported profit figures if inflation adjustments are not made), because cash
transactions reflect prices of the period in which they occur. It is however;
appropriate to the note that some general price level adjustment is needed for
cash plans occurring in different periods.
5. Cash flow information fits as an important variable in the decision models of
various users because of the concerns associated with the firms ability to pay
26
dividends to investors, interest and capital to lenders and bankers, amount

due to suppliers, wages and other benefits to employees, rectification and
maintenance services for customers, and taxation to the governments.
6. Cash flow information is argued to be more objective and relevant than the
accrual-based information.
7. There is the suspicion that the popularity of the all-embracing measures of
performance such as accrual-based profit may well have caused firms to
underestimate the importance of performance measures such as market
domination, productivity, and quality of products and services.
8. Cash flow accounting is the ideal system to correct the gaps in practice
between the way in which an investment is made (generally based on cash
flows) and the ways the results are evaluated (generally based on earnings).
CHAPTER III
RESEARCH METHOD
27
This chapter is aimed at giving a view of the research conducted by the

researcher. The view will cover several important things such as the type of
the study, the subject of the study, research setting, and research instruments
(including validity, relevance, data collection method, and research
procedures). Finally, as the most important thing before data analysis, this
chapter presents the technique of the data analysis. It describes in descriptive
ways the sequences of data analysis including the structure of presentation.
This chapter will explain about the outlines procedures that are used to
gather and analyze the data. The explanation will include the hypothesis
formulation. The reason behind is even though the hypotheses or research
problems have been formulated in the form of question, they need to be
rewritten into statistical hypotheses. This chapter also determines the null and
alternative hypotheses that are developed from the theoretical basis. This
research is an event study which tries to confirm about predicting future cash
flows using cash flows components from operating activity. The reason why
this research needs further observation because this can be important analysis
for management making decision and performance to determine next step
about future operations can deliver sufficient cash flow to settle a debt, to
maintain company operations, and pay dividend.
3.1 Research Method
28
This research tries to implement research done by Hollie and Cheng

(2004) in Indonesia which emphasize on the relationship between cash flow
from operating activities and the future cash flows, the different persistence
level between cash flow components (core and non core) in predict future cash
flow, to prove whether aggregate cash flow are incrementally informative
beyond accruals component in predicting future cash flows and to predict
whether cash flows component are incrementally informative beyond accrual
components in predicting future cash flow. This research contains of many
variables that used to prove the theory and it included as bivariate and
multivariate variable empirical research. To collect and process the data,
method used in this research is purposive sampling. Purposive sampling
method is a technique to collect the sample based on certain criteria that is in
accordance with the purpose of research and the samples are found based on
the variables exist in this research.
3.2 Research Subject (Population and Sample)
Population is the number of elements where a conclusion will be
arranged (Emory & Cooper, 1998). Or population is a group of comprehensive
elements that usually in the form of people, object, transaction or event where
we are interest to learn or to become the research object (Kuncoro, 2001).
Sample is a part collection from unit population. The population used in this
research is financial reports of the manufacturing company that already go
public in the Jakarta Stock Exchange within 3 years from 2003 until 2006.
Manufacturing Company was chosen because based on the report explained
29
that manufacturing companies have the most complete financial report

(Kristianingsih, 2003), the homogeneity in revenue-producing activities, and
consistency in the result to generalization. Manufacturing sector also has the
biggest company portion compared to another sector in the Jakarta Stock
Exchange. For the sample chosen in this research are 228 companies that
listed at the Jakarta Stock Exchange in the period of 2003-2006.
3.3 Research Setting
In order to collect, analyze, and present the results, the research will be
conducted through library study especially related to the real accounting
practices. This research is conducted by using relevant secondary data, which
is collected from many sources such as Indonesia Capital Market Directory
(ICMD), JSX statistic. The data used in this research is also collected from
JSX database at JSX corner Faculty Economy of UII, and also from Jakarta
Stock Exchange website www.JSX.co.id. Data collection and the sources of
data are taken from the companies listed in JSX, because JSX is the biggest
stock market in Indonesia and also accessible of gathering the data and the
completeness of the data.
3.4 Research Instrument
3.4.1 Validity and Relevance of Data

To maintain the validity of the study, the data are taken from annual reports
of Manufacturing Company in Indonesia. These reports have been audited by
independent auditor, in terms of relevance; the data are selected in such a way so
30
that they can support the analysis of the problem (they will be described later in
chapter IV). All acquired data are reflecting the existing problems of cash flow
from operating activities and the future cash flows, and the cash flow
components (core and non core) in predict future cash flow.
3.5 Research Data and Variables
To specify the object, this research used the companys financial
statement that issued yearly as data and several requirements must be fulfilled
are:
1. The companies were listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange starting from
January 2003 until 2006.
2. The companies must publish the financial report in the year ended on 31st
December along with the presentation of statement of cash flow minimum in 2
years in a row, from period 2003-2006.
The data that chosen from financial statement were as follow:
1) Balance sheet from the accounting year 2003 (ended in December 31
2003) to the accounting year 2006 (ended in December 31 2006), the variable
are account receivable, account payable, change in inventory, depreciation
expense and amortization.
2) Income statement from the accounting year 2003 (ended in December 31
2003) to the accounting year 2006 (ended in December 31 2006), the variable are
sales, cost of good sold, operating expense, and earning.
31
3) Statement of cash flows from the accounting year 2003 (ended in

December 31 2003) to the accounting year 2006 (ended in December 31 2006),
the variable are the cash flow from operating activities, cash flow related with
interest payment, and cash flow related to tax payment.
4) Notes to 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 financial statements.
The explanation variables used in this research are as follows:
1) Cash flow from operation (CFO)
This variable can be found directly from statement of cash flows, cash
flow from operation that used in this research is net cash flow from operating
activities.
2) Cash flow from sales (C_SALES)
The cash flow from sales variable cannot be used directly from the
income statement but must be calculated as sales minus change in account
receivable-trade. This variable can be found directly if the companies present
the statement of cash flow by using indirect method. In Indonesia, starting
from 1997 most of companies present the statement of cash flow by using
direct method as what it is regulated by PSAK no.2. Thus, in this research
cash flow from sales were also calculated as sales minus change in account
receivable-trade.
3) Cash flow from CGS (C_CGS)
Cash flow from CGS also same with cash flow from sales that cannot
be used directly from the income statement but must be calculated by Cost of
32
Good Sold minus change in inventory minus change in account payable

because the companies present the statement of cash flow by using indirect
method.
4) Cash flow from operating and administrative expense (C_OE)
This variable is calculated as operating expenses minus change in Net
Operating Working Capital excluding changes in accounts receivable-trade,
inventory, tax payable and interest payable
5) Cash flow related with interest payment (C_INT)
This variable is presented in the statement of cash flow. If the variable
is not available, the value will be assign as zero.
6) Cash flow related to tax payment (C_TAX)
This variable is presented in statement of cash flow. If the variable is
not available, the value will be taken from income taxes or income taxes
payable. The result is not altered by these two alternative variables.
7) Cash flow related to other revenue/expense (C_OTHER)
This variable is includes special and extraordinary items which are
calculated as cash flow from the operations minus by all other cash flow
components (i.e., cash flow related to sales, CGS, Operating expenses, interest
and taxes).
8) Earnings (EARN)
Earnings used in this research can be taken directly from income
statement that is income before extraordinary items and discounted operations.
33
9) Change in account receivable (AR)

In this research, for the company that presents their cash flow
statement by using direct method, change in Account Receivable was
calculated as follows:
AR = ARt ARt 1
Where, ARt is account receivable in year t and ARt-1 is account
receivable in year t-1.
10) Change in account payable (AP)
In this research, same with the calculation of change in Account
Receivable for company using direct method of cash flow, change in Account
Payable was calculated as follows:
AP = APt APt 1
Where, APt is account payable in year t and APt-1 is account payable in

year t-1.
11) Change in Inventory (INV)
In this research, change in Inventory was calculated as follows:
INV = INVt - INVt 1

Where, INVt is the amount of inventory in year t and INVt-1 is the
amount of inventory in year t-1.
12) Depreciation expense (DEPR)
34
This variable is presented in the balance sheet in the part of fix assets,
but if not this variable can be found in the notes.
13) OTHER-not all other accruals
This variable is calculated as:
EARN- (CF+ AR+ INV- AP-DEPR)
3.6 Research Procedures

This research is conducted throughout several procedures as follows;
Collecting the data. The data are collected in such a way to maintain the
validity and relevance in this study. I access the information especially those
related to that will be used as variable in this research from the library of PPA
(Pusat Pengembangan Akuntansi) Faculty of Economics, JSX corner of FE UII
Yogyakarta and www.JSX.co.id.
Classifying the data by choosing the data that includes as manufacturing
company listed in Jakarta Stock exchange from year 2003-2006 which has at
least three years in arrow.
Reclassifying by taking the data from company financial statement which
used as variables and only choose the company financial statement that has
complete data.
35
Doing calculations of variables needed in this research such as combining

the data which cannot used directly as variable, grouping the variable and etc
then data processing.
Doing the statistical test to find out whether there was a significant
variation on the relationship among the variables.
Using the multiple regression analysis to predict the relationship from the
dependent and the independent variable. The regression equation would also
determine the standard error of estimate to measure the dispersion from the
actual data around the regression line. Furthermore the quantitative analysis of
probability value (p-value) approach is used to determine whether the result of
the regression analysis is significant or not.
Analyzing and interpreting the data.
Deriving conclusion and any other findings.
3.7. The Test of the Classical assumption of Regression

3.7.1. Multicollinearity Test
The term multicollinearity means the existence of a perfect or exact,
linear relationship among some or all explanatory variables of a regression
model. The existence of multicollinearity causes in appropriate estimation result
(Gujarati, 1995). The classical linear regression model assumes that there is no
multicollinearity among explanatory variables because if multicollinearity is
perfect, the regression coefficients, although determinate passed large standard
36
errors (in relation to the coefficients themselves), which means the coefficients
can not be estimated with great precision or accuracy.
According to Gujarati (1995), as a rule of thumb of this test is high
pair wise correlation among regression. If the pair wise or zero order
correlation coefficient between two repressors is high, for example, in excess
of 0.8, the only multicollinearity is serious problem
3.7.2 The Heteroscedasticity Test
Heteroscedasticity occurs when there is relationship between one or more
independent variable with error or the heteroscedasticity symptom will appear
when the residual (el) has the different variance from one observation to another.
The existence of heteroscedasticity causes the regression coefficient estimation
becomes inefficient. Thus, the objective of this test is to find whether there is no
difference in the standard value of deviation of dependent variable in each
independent variable value. The fit better regression model is Homoskedasticity,
it means that residual variance is same from one residual observation to another
(Ghozali, 2005). Heteroscedasticity can be detected by analyzing the coefficient
of the Spearmans correlation tests. Also it can use the scatter diagram and the
park test.
3.7.3 Normality Testing
This normality test aimed to measure whether in the regression model,
disturbance variable or residual have normal distribution. In the normality test
there are two ways to detect whether the residual have been normally distributed
or not trough graphical analysis and statistics analysis (Ghozali, 2005).
37
3.8 Technique of Data Analysis

In this research, the dependent variable used in every model used is cash
flow from operation in the year t+1, whether the independent variables used are
aggregate cash flow from operation in the year t, aggregate earnings, the
components of cash flow from operation and the component of accrual. The
relation between the dependent and independent variable will form two types of
regression: bivariate and multivariate.
The data analysis used in this research is Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
model. The steps analyses are divided into four groups of framework based on
the hypothesis, and then formed the regression model and formulated the
hypothesis testing.
Steps analyses are explained as follows:
1. The first analysis is to find the ability of cash flow from operating
activities to predict the future cash flows.
2. The second is to measure the different persistence level between cash
flow components (core and non core) in predicting future cash flows. In this
research, I defined core cash flows as cash flow related to sales, cost of good
sold, and operating expenses and non-core cash flow as cash flow related to
interest, taxes and other expenses.
3. Third is to measure the superiority of aggregate cash flows beyond
accruals components in predicting future cash flows. In this research, the
inclusion of accrual components to cash flow components equals total earning.
38
4. The fourth is to measure the superiority of cash flows component (core

and non-core) beyond accruals components in predicting future cash
flows.
5. Furthermore is to test the hypothesis and deriving the conclusion.
6. Then after finished the fourth equation, use the Pair-wise test to know the
differences in adjusted R square for each equation.
The explanation about the analysis can be explained more as follows:
a.) First analysis is to find the ability of cash flow from operating activities to
predict the future cash flows.
The framework of this assumption is that the cash flow from operating
activities is assumed that they will have the ability to predict future cash flow.
The variables that are used here:
Dependent Variable : Aggregate cash flow from operating activities from year
t+1.
Independent Variable : Aggregate cash flow from operating activities from year
t.
The least square regression model that is used:
CFOt +1 = + CFOt + t .3.1.
= Intercept from the regression line
= Coefficient of variable
= residual error.
39
b.) Second analysis is to measure the different persistence level between cash
flow components core and non-core.
The framework is taken here since this research tries to define core and
non-core cash flow in parallel with the classification of income statement. Core
cash flow is defined based on their close relation to operating activities.
Second is to measure the different persistence level between cash flow
components (core and non core) in predicting the future cash flows. In this
research, the researcher defined core cash flows as cash flow related to sales, cost
of good sold, and operating expenses and non-core cash flow as cash flow related
to interest, taxes and other expenses.
The variables that are used:
t+1.
Independent Variable :
Cash flow from sales (C_SALES) in year t.
Cash flow from cost of good sold (C_CGS) in year t.
Cash flow from operating and administrative expense (C_OE) in

year t.
Cash flow related to interest payment (C_INT) in year t.
Cash flow related to tax payment (C_TAX) in year t.
Cash flow related to other revenue/expenses item (C_OTHER) in year

t.
Least square regression model which is used is:
40
CFOt +1 = + C _ SALES t + C _ COGS t + C _ OEt + C _ INTt + C _ TAX t

+ C _ OTHERt + t ........................................................................................3.2
In This case:
=Intercept from the regression line.
= Variable coefficient.
= residual error.
c.) Measure the superiority of aggregates cash flows beyond accruals components
in predicting the future cash flows.
The framework of this analysis is to provide the evidence as to whether
cash flow components are incrementally informative beyond accrual components
and aggregated cash flow alone in predicting the future cash flows.
t+1.
Aggregate cash flow from operating activities from year t (CFOt).
Change in account receivable (AR) in year t.
Change in account payable (AP) in year t.
Change in inventory (INV) in year t.
Depreciation expense (DEPR) in year t.
OTHER-not all of other accrual.
Least square regression model used is:
41
CFOt +1 = + CFOt + ARt + APt + INVt + DEPRt + OTHERt + t

3.3
In this case:
= residual error.
d.) The fourth is to measure the superiority of cash flows component (core and
non-core) beyond accruals components in predicting the future cash flows.
The assumption of this analysis is to investigate whether core and
non-core components of cash flows from operation persist differently and
improve predictability. To determine whether the components of cash flows
enhance cash flow predictability we investigate whether the role of cash flow
components is additive to the role of accrual components when predicting
the future cash flows.
The framework of this analysis is to provide evidences as to whether cash
flow components are incrementally informative beyond accrual components and
aggregated cash flow alone in predicting the future cash flows.
t+1.
Cash flow from sales (C_SALES) from year t.
42
Cash flow from cost of good sold (C_CGS) in year t.
Cash flow from operating and administrative expense (C_OE) in year t.
Cash flow related to interest payment (C_INT) in year t.
Cash flow related to tax payment (C_TAX) in year t.
Cash flow related to other revenue/expenses item (C_OTHER) in

year t.
Change in account receivable (AR) in year t.
Change in account payable (AP) in year t.
Change in inventory (INV) in year t.
Depreciation expense (DEPR) in year t.
OTHER-not all of other accrual.
Least square regression model used is:

CFOt +1 = + C _ SALES t + C _ COGS t + C _ OEt + C _ INTt + C _ TAX t
+ C _ OTHERt t + ACC t + t ............................................................................................3.4
Also
written
as:
CFOt +1 = + CFOt + ACC t + t ..3.5
ACC = AR
+ APt + INVt + DEPRt + OTHERt ...
3.6
In this case:
43
= residual error.
3.8. Formulated Hypothesis and Hypothesis Testing
3.8.1. Formulated Hypothesis
Based on the problem statements and the review of the related
literature, so that the alternative hypothesis and the null hypothesis that are
proposed in this research are:
1. Ho : Cash flow from operating activities doesnt have the ability to predict
future cash flows.
Ha : Cash flow from operating activities have the ability to predict future cash
flows.
2. Ho : Cash flow components (core and non core) doesnt have the same
persistence level in predicting the future cash flows.
Ha : Cash flow components (core and non core) have different persistence
level in predicting the future cash flows.
3. Ho : Aggregate cash flows are not incrementally informative beyond accruals
Ha : Aggregate cash flows are incrementally informative beyond accruals
4. Ho : Cash flows component are not incrementally informative beyond
accruals components in predicting the future cash flows.
Ha : Cash flows component are incrementally informative beyond accruals
44
3.8.2. Hypothesis Testing

The hypothesis testing will be done by using linear and multiple
regression equation to find the relationship between the dependent and
independent variables used in this research and then do the analysis the
significance of coefficient.
The statistical hypotheses used for equation 3.1 till 3.4 respectively
were as follows:
H01: 1 = 0
Ha1: 1 0
H02: 1 = 2 = 3 = = 6 = 0
Ha2: At least one 1 0
H03: 1 = 2 = 3 = = 6 = 0
H04: 1 = 2 = 0
The first until the fourth hypotheses testing steps are described as follows:
After analyzing the result of classical assumption test, then I continued using
simultaneous regression test by using F-test and partial regression test by using ttest for each hypothesis that can be calculated by using SPSS 11.5.
3.8.2.1 Simultaneous Regression Testing ( F test)
45
This testing aimed to know the simultaneous independent variable

influence toward dependent variable by see the significance F value. If F
significance value less smaller than 0,05 ,so the alternative hypothesis can not
be rejected or with = 5% statistically independent variable simultaneously
influence dependent variable.
The data then processed by using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social
Science) computer software. The testing for the first hypothesis was tested by
analyzing the cash flow from operation in year t on the cash flow from
operation in year t+1. For the second hypothesis, the hypothesis was tested by
analyzing the cash flow component (core and non-core) in year t on the
aggregate cash flow from operation in year t+1. For the third hypothesis, the
hypothesis was tested by analyzing aggregate cash flow from year t and
accruals component in year t on the aggregate cash flow from operation in
year t+1. The fourth hypothesis, the hypothesis was tested by analyzing the
cash flow component (core and non-core) in year t and accruals component in
year t on the aggregate cash flow from operation in year t+1.
3.8.2.2 Partial Regression Testing (t test)

This testing aimed to know the relation is significant from each free
variable toward its tied variable. If significance rate obtained (p- value) smaller
46
than 0,05 so H0 can be rejected or by = 5% those independent variable

statistically relate toward they dependent variable.
Testing the significance of the regression coefficient from the first
until the fourth hypothesis that has already been described previously are
determined by using probability value of estimated error approach (p-value
approach) to observe the significance level of the regression coefficient. The
determination of accepting or rejecting Ho for equation 3.1 until 3.4 is as
follows:
Ho is rejected when:
F test > p-value < (5%)
Ho is failed to reject when:

F test < p-value > (5%)
47
CHAPTER IV
REASEARCH FINDINGS, DISCUSSION, AND IMPLICATIONS
This chapter will explain about the early process of gathering data,
measurement of variables used in this research, data analysis and the
interpretation of hypothesis testing which consists of explanations about research
findings, discussion and research implications.
The data that are used in this research include of the information of cash
flow components from the companies (228 companies) in the JSX at the period
of 2004 - 2006, the data include of cash flow from operating activities, sales, cost
of good sold, cash flow from operating expense, cash flow related with interest
payment, cash flow related to tax payment, earning, account receivable, account
payable, inventory, depreciation expense and amortization over the period of
2004 - 2006.
Table 4.1
The Election of Research Sample
Explanation
The number
of company
Manufacturing companies listed in JSX year 2003 - 2006
138
Companies that have been de listing
(49)
Companies that not present at least 3 years in arrow
(12)
Companies that have year book not 31st December
(1)
Total sample used in this research
76
48
4.1 Descriptive Statistics

This section will describe the result of statistical analysis like average
value (mean), standard deviation, maximum value, and minimum value of each
variable.
Table 4.2
CFOt+1
N
228
Minimum
-881326274910
Maximum
28993107000000
Mean
414776814916.42
Std. Deviation
2350537732458.19
CFOt
228
-308805952513
19418506000000
281662735978.03
1354587699154.11
C_Sales
228
-37453779230000
289732771000000
3172625093150.72
19674363726709.58
C_COGS
228
-401272000000
253941430000000
2672139898403.53
16999349559296.17
C_OE
228
-260116587092
27786821000000
398051042564.08
1904747645839.79
C_INT
228
40997800
10385535000000
95553239969.94
696456873716.98
C_TAX
228
14319802
7592511000000
85915665674.22
517538797521.71
C_OTHER
228
-34386349210000
570020562000000
6142290826541.76
38312991874625.44
A_AR
228
-308805952513
19418506000000
281662735978.03
1354587699154.11
A_AP
228
-9801602410000
18944023500000
22935375950.89
1530697403836.51
A_INV
228
-28806588360000
63363122880000
230561553539.39
4691095755392.40
DEPRE
228
678214279
156780566000000
1569522873505.67
10552647734228.80
OTHER
228
-43136200000000
171555000000000
1294041195159.88
11931046634823.40
Valid N
(listwise)
228
As we can see from table 4.1, the amount of sample, which is used in this
research, is 228. From variable CFOt and CFOt+1 that represent the amount of
aggregate cash flows from operations in current year and aggregate cash flows
from operations in the future, shows that in average, the mean for period t+1 that
is 4.15E+011 are greater than the mean in period t that is 2.82E+011. It indicates
that there is an increasing amount of aggregate cash flow from operations during
the periods of research. And the means from all variables represents overall
change during the period of research.
49
4.2 Quality Data Test

This test is aimed to know whether in the regression model, the residual has
normal distribution or not. This analysis use normality testing by using normal
probably plot of standardized residual. There are four p-plot diagrams for four
equations to know the normality each equation. The result is follow:
FIGURE 4.1
P Plot Equation 3.1
Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual
P Plot Equation 3.2

Dependent Variable: lgcfot1

1.0
0.8
Expected Cum Prob
Expected Cum Prob
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0
1.0
0.2
P Plot Equation 3.3
0.6
0.8
1.0
P Plot Equation 3.4

1.0
1.0
0.8
Expected Cum Prob
Expected Cum Prob
0.4
Observed Cum Prob
Observed Cum Prob
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Observed Cum Prob
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Observed Cum Prob
50
Based on the figure 4.1 that contains of four diagrams shown above, the
dots are spreadly distributing roundabout diagonal line and the distribution is in
line with diagonal line. From the result, it can be concluded that the data
distribution is closely normal or has fulfilled the normality assumption.
4.3 Classical Asumption Test
Classical assumption test is done to know whether the data used has been
free from autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity problem. If
the classic assumption cannot be fulfilled, it will cause bias in the research result.
The result of the classical assumption below will describe the validity of the data
used for the research.
4.3.1 Multicollinearity Test
Multicollienearity test is one of tests to know whether in the regression
model there is correlation or linier relationship amongst independent variables
( free variable) which are cash flow from operating activities, sales, cost of good
sold, cash flow from operating expense, cash flow related with interest payment,
cash flow related to tax payment, earning, account receivable, account payable,
inventory, depreciation expense (Ghozali,2005).
Multicollinearity test can be seen from the tolerance value and variance
inflation facto (VIF) (Ghozali, 2005). If the test result shows that there is no
tolerance value which is less than 10 % or VIF calculation result shows that there
is no VIF value which is more than 5 for each independent variable, so in the
regression model there is no multicollinearity indication amongst independent
variable (Santoso,2000 cited in Eddy R, 2005).
51
This is the multicolliniearity test result that use tolerance value and
variance inflation factor (VIF) by using SPSS software 13.0
Table 4.3
Multicollinearity Test
Equation 3.1
Equation 3.2
Coefficients (a)
Coefficients (a)
Model
Tolerance
1
Collinearity Statistics
Model
(Constant)
VIF
(Constant)
C_CFOt+1
1.000
1.000
.996
1.004
C_CGS
.978
1.023
C_OE
.522
1.914
C_INT
.930
1.075
C_TAX
.947
1.056
C_OTHER
.494
2.024
Equation 3.4
Coefficients(a)
Coefficients(a)
Tolerance
VIF
(Constant)
C_CFOt
A_ AR
A_ AP
.997
.998
.998
VIF
C_SALES
Equation 3.3
Tolerance
Depre
Other
.968
1.033
.950
1.052
Tolerance
VIF
(Constant)
1.003
C_SALES
.996
1.004
1.002
C_CGS
.978
1.023
1.002
C_OE
.495
2.020
.929
1.077
A_ Inv
.996
1.004
C_INT
Depre
.996
1.004
C_TAX
.943
1.061
1.003
C_OTHER
.469
2.133
A_ AR
.995
1.005
A_ AP
.987
1.013
A_ Inv
.986
1.015
Other
.997
52
Based on the multicollinearity test result in the table 4.2 above, it is known
that all variables for each equation have tolerance value more than 10 % and VIF
value less than 5 for each independent variable. Finally, we can conclude that
there is no multicollinearity indication.
4.3.2 Heteroscedastisity Test
Heteroscedastisity test is done to test whether in the regression model a
variance equality from certain residual observation compared to other experience
observation (the variance is not constant through time). Heteroscedasticity test
result using SPSS 13.0 is follow:
Figure 4.2
Equation 3.1
Equation 3.2
Scatterplot
Scatterplot
Regression Studentized Residual
4
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
-5.0
-2
-4
-6
-4
-2
Regression Standardized Predicted Value
Equation 3.3
-2
Equation 3.4
53
Scatterplot
Scatterplot

4
-2
-4
-6
-2
-4
-6
-4
-2
-2
The figure 4.2 shows that there is no clear pattern, and the dots
spreadly distribute in the above and under 0 in the Y axis. So, we can
conclude that there is no heteroscedastisity indication in the regression model
and result proves that the data was valid and it will give a reliable estimated
model parameter.
4.4 Hypothesis Testing

4.4.1
The First Hypothesis to Find the Ability of Cash Flow from

Operating Activities to Predict the Future Cash Flows
4.4.1.1 Simultaneous RegressionTest ( F test)

Table 4.4
ANOVAb
Model
1
Regression
Residual
Total
Sum of
Squares
,068
1,092
1,160
df
5
223
228
Mean Square
,014
,004
F
2,767
Sig.
,018a
a. Predictors: (Constant), CFOt

b. Dependent Variable: CFOt+1
In the F test, if the F significant value is less than 0,05 so the alternative
hypothesis cannot be rejected or with = 5% independent variables statistically
54
altogether can influence dependent variable. In the above table, it is shown that
p-value is 0,018 in the = 5%. It means that independent variable CFOt
simultaneously and significantly influence dependent variable CFOt+1, there is
future cash flows.
4.4.1.2 Coefficient Determination

Table 4.5
Model Summary (b)
Model
1
R
.797(a)
R Square
.335
Adjusted R
Square
.332
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.59859
Durbin-Watson
1.949
a Predictors : (Constant), CFOt

b Dependent Variable: CFOt+1
Equation (1) serves as a benchmark to assess the relative predictive

ability of aggregate cash flows to future cash flow. Consistent with prior
research, I find that aggregate cash flows in equation (1) are significantly positive
in the prediction equation. CFO explains 33.2% of the variation in next-period
cash flows.
4.4.1.3 Regression Analysis
Table 4.6
Independent
Variables
t-Statistics
CFOt
0.921
23.579
-value
Significance
level
0.001
Significant
55
p-value is 0,001 in the = 5%. It means that independent variables (CFOt)
simultaneously
and significantly influence dependent variable (CFOt+1). For
regression analysis, table 4.4 shows that the coefficient of CFOt () the amount is
0.921. It means that CFOt positively affect the amount of CFOt+1. And it means
that an increase in one value of CFOt, it will cause the increase amount of CFOt+1
by 0.921, holding by other variables constant. This indicates that more than 90%
of current years cash flows will persist to next years cash flows. The results
also lead to a conclusion that there are sufficient evidences to prove that cash
flow from operation have the ability to predict the future cash flow. This is
consistent with the prior research done by Hollie and Cheng (2004) which stated
that the aggregate cash flow is significantly positive in the prediction equation.
Through the Adjusted R2 which is stated in Hollie and Cheng research,
independent variable (CFOt) explains 28.69% of the variation in the next period
cash flows.
4.4.2 The Second Hypothesis to Measure the Different Persistence Level
between Cash Flow Components (Core and Non-core) in Predicting
Future Cash Flow
This research defines core cash flow component are cash flow from: sales
(C_SALES), cost of good sold (C_COGS), and operating and administrative
expenses (C_OE). The non-core cash flow components are interest (C_INT),
56
taxes (C_TAX), and other expenses (C_OTHER). After finding all the variables
needed and stacking the data, the test for the second hypothesis is done by
identifying the significance level of core and non-core component of cash flow
from operation on aggregate cash flow from operation in future year (CFOt).

Table 4.7
ANOVAb
Model
1
Regression
Residual
Total
Sum of
Squares
,071
1,112
1,183
df
7
221
228
Mean Square
,002
,007
F
2,821
Sig.
,009a
a. Predictors: (Constant), C_SALES, C_COGS, C_OE, C_TAX, C_INT, C_OTHER

p-value is 0,008 in the = 5%. It means that independent variables consisting of
C_SALES, C_OOGS, C_OE, C_TAX, C_INT, C_OTHER simultaneously and
significantly influence dependent variable, there is CFOt+1 or future cash flows.
Table 4.8
57
Model Summary(b)
Adjusted R
Std. Error of
Square
the Estimate
R
R Square
Durbin-Watson
.823(a)
.477
.464
.53758
1.675
a Predictors: (Constant), C_Sales, C_COGS, C_OE, C_Int, C_Tax, C_Other
Model
1

ability of cash flows components (core and non-core) to future cash flow. From
the Adjusted R2, we can conclude that all of the core and non-core cash flows
components are significant in predicting future cash flow. The cash flows
component explains 46.4% of the variation in next-period cash flows. And the
adjusted R2 increase from 33.2% for equation (1) to 46.4% for equation (2), an
13% increase in explaining its variation.
Table 4.9
Independent
Variables
t-Statistics
C_SALES
C_COGS
C_OE
C_INT
C_TAX
C_OTHER
0.879
0.571
0.522
0.169
0.141
0.109
9.569
7.263
7.169
1.796
1.523
1.235
-value
Significance level
0.001
0.033
0.006
0.003
0.002
0.001
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Table 4.6 shows the coefficient (slope or i ) and p-value result of all
independent variables (C_SALES, C_COGS, C_OE, C_INT, C_TAX,
C_OTHER). From those result we know that both core and non-core
58
component of cash flow from operation are significantly affecting the future
cash flow.
For core cash flows, the coefficient for C_SALES is 0.879 with a tstatistic 9.569. The coefficient for C_COGS is 0.571 with a t-statistic 7.263 and
the coefficient for C_OE is 0.522 with a t-statistic 7.169. From that information,
we can conclude that the persistence of C_SALES has greater variability
compare than C_OE and C_COGS. This is different with the result from research
which is done by Hollie and Cheng (2004) which stated that C_OE has greater
variability compare than C_SALES and C_COGS. This difference could be
caused because the research held in different country and different periods.
For non-core cash flow, the coefficient on C_INT, C_TAX and
C_OTHER have a value 0.169, 0.141 and 0.109 respectively. Thus they have a tstatistic of 1.796, 1.523 and 1.235 respectively. This values indicate that C_INT
has the greatest persistent between C_TAX and C_OTHER. This is in accordance
with the result of research Hollie and Chengs research (2004). According to
Hollie and Cheng, this is in accordance with FASB statement through SFAS
No.95, which stated that in deciding the reporting of statement of cash flow,
FASB chooses to include cash flow, related to interest in the operating section.
For the result of C_TAX variable is different with what Hollie and Cheng said,
they stated that C_TAX does not persist to the next period. According to them,
this concurs with the characteristic of taxes. It can depend on the sources of
income that the tax are levied on and depends on the firms tax strategy. The
result also lead to a conclusion that there are sufficient evidences to prove that
59
cash flow components (core and non core) persist similarly among each other but
persist more than non-core cash flows in predicting the future cash flows.
4.4.3
The Third Hypothesis to Prove that Aggregate Cash Flows Are

Incrementally Informative Beyond Accruals Components in
Predicting Future Cash Flows

Table 4.10
ANOVAb
Model
1
Regression
Residual
Total
Sum of
Squares
,084
1,181
1,265
df
3
225
228
Mean Square
,005
,012
F
2,749
Sig.
,017a
a. Predictors: (Constant), CFO, A_AR, A_AP, A_INV, DEPRE, OTHER

CFO, A_AR, A_AP, A_INV, DEPRE, OTHER simultaneously and significantly
influence dependent variable, there is CFOt+1 or future cash flows.
Table 4.11
60
Model Summary(b)
Adjusted R
Std. Error of
Square
the Estimate
R
R Square
Durbin-Watson
.807(a)
.592
.572
.51723
1.081
a Predictors: (Constant : A_AR, A_AP, A_Inv., A_Depre, A_Other
Model
1

ability of aggregate cash flows and accrual component to the future cash flow.
The result of adjusted R2 is 57.2% we can conclude that aggregate cash flows and
accrual components are significant in predicting future cash flow. The adjusted
2
R increased from 46.4% for Equation (2) to 57.2% for Equation (3), an increase
of almost 12% in explaining the variation of next years cash flows.
Table 4.12
-value
Independent
Variables
t-Statistics
CFOT
A_AR
A_AP
A_INV
DEPR
OTHER
0.744
0.616
0.428
0.325
0.292
0.278
9.139
8.387
5.298
0.593
0.738
0.872
0.005
0.018
0.000
0.000
0.072
0.558
Significance level
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Not Significant
Not Significant
Table 4.7 shows that CFOt, A_AR, A_AP and A_INV are significant to
the hypothesis alternative (Ha). We find that the coefficient for CFOt has average
0.744 with t-statistics. It indicates that almost 75% of current year cash flows will
persist to next years cash flows once effects of the accrual components are
controlled. Same with Hollie and Cheng, who found that the coefficient for CFOt
has greatest value among all variables, here we can see that A_AR also has a
61
great value compared to other variables. Based on the p-value of significant,

DEPRE and OTHER are not significant with hypothesis alternative. From that
result, we can derive a conclusion that aggregate cash flows are incrementally
informative beyond accruals components in predicting the future cash flows.
4.4.4
The Fourth Hypothesis to Measure the Superiority of Cash Flows

Component (core and non-core) Beyond Accruals Components in
Predicting Future Cash Flows

Table 4.13
ANOVA(b)
Model
1
Regression
Sum of
Squares
,071
Df
11
Mean Square
,013
,016
Residual
1,112
223
Total
1,183
228
F
4,926
Sig.
.029(a)
a Predictors: (Constant), C_SALES, C_COGS, C_OE, C_TAX, C_INT, C_OTHER, A_AR, A_AP,
A_INV, DEPRE, OTHER
b Dependent Variable: lgcfot1
C_SALES, C_OOGS, C_OE, C_TAX, C_INT, C_OTHER, A_AR, A_AP,
A_INV, DEPRE, and OTHER simultaneously
and significantly influence
dependent variable, there is CFOt+1 or future cash flows.

62
Table 4.14
Model Summary(b)
Model
1
R
.833(a)
R Square
.721
Adjusted R
Square
.694
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.56488
Durbin-Watson
1.912
a Predictors: (Constant), C_Sales, C_COGS, C_OE, C_TAX, C_INT,C_OTHER A_AR,

A_AP, A_INV, OTHER, DEPRE
Equation (4) assesses whether cash flow components (core and n0n-core)
reflect different information in predicting future cash flows with accrual
2
components in the model. The adjusted R increased from 57.2% for Equation (3)
to 69.4% for Equation (4), an increase of almost 8 % in explaining the variation
of next years cash flows.
Table 4.15
Independent
Variables
tStatistics
-value
Significance level
C_SALES
Significant
0.001
Significant
C_OE
C_INT
C_TAX
C_OTHER
A_AR
A_AP
A_INV
DEPR
OTHER
0.581
0.216
0.251
0.178
0.236
0.212
0.194
0.317
0.115
10.689
8.374
5.103
3.060
3.349
2.947
1.848
1.789
0.702
0.236
0.024
0.000
C_COGS
0.899
0.685
0.005
0.000
0.010
0.003
0.014
0.000
0.027
0.095
0.688
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Not Significant
Not Significant
This research finds that all components of cash flow are significant. For
the accrual components, DEPRE and OTHER are not significant. The
63
significance level of cash flow components have the same sign to those reported
in equation (2) and the significance level for accrual components also same with
equation (3). When we add accrual components, all coefficients get larger. For
example, coefficients of the core items (C_Sales, C_COGS and C_OE) increase
from (0.879, 0.571 and 0.522) to (0.899, 0.685 and 0.581), a 10% increase,
coefficients of C_INT, C_TAX and C_OTHER increase from (0.169, 0.141 and
0.109) to (0.216, 0.251 and 0.178). Comparing the coefficients for the accrual
components between equation (3) and (4) reveals that magnitude of the
coefficients of A_AR, A_AP, A_INV and OTHER decrease from (0.616, 0.428,
0.325 and 0.278) to (0.236, 0.212, 0.194 and 0,115). However, the coefficients of
DEPR increase from (0.292) to (0.317). This implies the significance of shortterm accruals and OTHER in equation 3 is partly due to their correlations to cash
flows while this is not the case for long-term accruals. This is same with the
result of Hollie and Chengs research (2004). The result from their research
shows that all cash flow components become larger when they add accrual
components. They stated that by adding omitted variables it will improve the
performance model and the impact on coefficients of the original variables
depend on whether the significance of the original variables from the original
model is due to their correlation to added omitted variables. From that result, we
can derive the conclusion for the fourth equation in this research that cash flow
components are incrementally informative beyond accrual components in
predicting the future cash flow.
4.5 Pair-west Test
64
Table 4.16
Pair-wise Test of Differences in Adjusted R-squares for Equations 1, 2, 3
and 4
Equation 2
13.97%
17.22%
20.90%
20.84
31.83
38.61
<.0001
<.0001
<.0001
12.32%
14.95%
19.42
27.69
<.0001
<.0001
12.13%
19.51
<.0001
Table 5 presents a pair-wise comparison test between each models

adjusted R-square. The improvement from equation 1 to equation 2 and from
equation 2 to equation 3 and equation 3 to equation 4 are around 12% - 13%
(13.97, 12.32 and 12.13 respectively) with high t-statistics (20.84, 19.42 and
19.51 respectively). We conclude that disaggregating cash flows into
components enhances cash flow prediction.
65
CHAPTER V
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This chapter covers the conclusion, limitation, and the recommendation

for the future research. Through this chapter, the economists can learn some
important lessons in this study, particularly in predicting the future cash flows.
Thus, for the students who will conduct the next research or further research
relates to this study, this paper can be a guidance to derive and determine new
evidence relates to informational content of cash flows.
5.1. Research Conclusions
Based on the research purpose, the statistical test and analysis that have been
described in the previous chapters, some conclusions are drawn as follows:
66
a.
The research that has been done in the period of 2003-2006 with the
total sample of 228 companies which were listed in the Jakarta Stock
Exchange conclude that there were sufficient evidence to prove the first
hypothesis that the aggregate cash flow in current year has the ability to
predict the future cash flow.
b.
There is a sufficient evidence to prove that there is a different

persistence level between core and non-core components of cash flow
from operations in predicting the future cash flow. From the result we
can see that all variable (consider as cash flow core and non-core
components) are significantly affecting future cash flow. The results
imply that AICPA recommendation that firms should distinguish
between financial effects of companys core and non-core cash flow has
been proven and can be implemented in Indonesia.
c.
The incremental information given by aggregate cash flow beyond

accrual components to predict future cash flow can be proved. Here,
CFOt has the highest coefficient with the future cash flows we can see
that all accrual components are not significant to the future cash flows.
d.
The superiority of cash flow components to predict the future cash flow
compare than accrual components can be predicted through the equation
3.4. All cash flows components are significant to the dependent variable
(future cash flow or CFOt+1), each component gives positive coefficient
to the dependent variable. So this is more significant compare than
accrual components that almost all are not significant.
67
5.2. Research Recommendations

After completion this research, the following recommendations have been
drawn:
1. The companies used as sample consideration for same the research
hopefully can be added by other types of company. So the result will be
more significant because it cover all companies that listing in Jakarta
Stock Exchange.
2. For further research, the research should not only prove the different
persistent level between each variable and components but it must also
find which variables (cash flow components or accruals components)
contribute greater to the dependent variable (future cash flows) by using a
pair-wise test of the differences in the equation.
3. Further research may compare between the core and non-core cash flow
in the presentation of cash flow by using direct or indirect method of
presentation of cash flow statement. The objective is whether the
Bapepam decisions that regulate the company in presenting statement of
cash flow by using direct method can be supported or not.
68
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71
72
73
74
APPENDIC 1
LMPI
LANGGENG MAKMUR IND (LMPI)
List of Companies
LMSH
LIONMESH (LMSH).
LPIN
MULTI PRIMA SEJAHTERA (LPIN)
MLBI
MULTI BINTANG (MLBI)
MLIA
MULIA INDUSTRINDO (MLIA)
MRAT
MUSTIKA RATU (MRAT)
MYOR
MAYORA (MYOR)
MYRX
HANSON INTERNATIONAL (MYRX)
MYTX
APAC CITRA (MYTX)
PAFI
PANASIA FILAMENT (PAFI)
PICO
PELANGI INDAH CANINDO (PICO)
ADES
ADES WATER (ADES).
ADMG
POLYCHEM (ADMG)
AISA
TIGA PILAR (AISA).
ALMI
ALUMINDO LIGHT METAL (ALMI)
AMFG
ASAHIMAS FLAT GLASS (AMFG)
ARGO
ARGO PANTES (ARGO)
ARNA
ARWANA CITRA MULIA (ARNA)
AUTO
ASTRA OTOPART (AUTO)
BATI
BAT INDONESIA (BATI)
BIMA
PRIMARINDO ASIA (BIMA)
BRAM
BRANTA MULIA (BRAM)
BRNA
BERLINA (BRNA).
BRPT
BARITO PACIFIC TIMBER (BRPT)
DPNS
DUTA PERTIWI NUSANTARA (DPNS)
DSUC
DAYA SAKTI UNGGUL (DSUC)
DYNA
DYNAPLAST (DYNA).
ESTI
EVERSHINE (ESTI)
FASW
FAJAR SURYA WISESA (FASW).
GGRM
GUDANG GARAM (GGRM).
GJTL
GAJAH TUNGGAL (GJTL)
HDTX
PANASIA INDOSYNTEX (HDTX)
IGAR
IKAI
KAGEO IGAR JAYA (IGAR)

INTI KERAMIK ALAMASRI INDUSTRI
(IKAI)
IKBI
SUMI INDO KABEL (IKBI)
INAF
INDOFARMA (INAF)
INAI
INDAL ALUMUNIUM (INAI)
INDF
INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR (INDF)
INDS
INDOSPRING (INDS)
INKP
INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER (INKP)

INDOCEMENT TUNGGAL PERKASA
(INTP)
INTP
JECC
JEMBO CABLE COMPANY (JECC)
JPFA
JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA (JPFA)
KAEF
KIMIA FARMA (KAEF)
KDSI
KEDAWUNG SETIA (KDSI)
KICI
KEDAUNG INDAH CAN (KICI)
KKGI
RESOURCES ALAM INDONESIA (KKGI)
KLBF
KALBE FARMA (KLBF)
LAPD
LAPINDO INTERNATIONAL (LAPD)
POLY
POLYSINDO EKA PERKASA (POLY).
PRAS
PRIMA ALLOY STEEL (PRAS)
PSDN
PRASIDHA ANEKA NIAGA (PSDN)
PYFA
PYRIDAM FARMA TBK (PYFA)
RICY
RICKY PUTRA GLOBALINDO (RICY)
SCCO
SUCACO (SCCO)
SIMA
SIWANI MAKMUR (SIMA)
SKLT
SEKAR LAUT (SKLT)
SMCB
HOLCIM INDONESIA (SMCB)
SMGR
SEMEN GRESIK (SMGR)
SMSM
SELAMAT SEMPURNA (SMSM)
SOBI
SORINI CORPORATION (SOBI)
SPMA
SUPARMA (SPMA)
SQMI
SRSN
SANEX QIANJIANG (SQMI)

INDO ACIDATAMA SARASA NUGRAHA
(SRSN).
STTP
SIANTAR TOP (STTP)
TBMS
TEMBAGA MULIA SEMANAN (TBMS)
TEJA
TEXMACO JAYA (TEJA).
TFCO
TIFICO (TFCO)
TIRT
TIRTA MAHAKAM POLYWOOD (TIRT)
TKIM
PABRIK KERTAS TJIWI KIMIA (TKIM)
TOTO
SURYA TOTO (TOTO).
TRST
TRIAS SENTOSA (TRST)
TSPC
TEMPO SCAN PACIFIC (TSPC)
ULTJ
ULTRAJAYA (ULTJ)
UNIC
UNGGUL INDAH CAHAYA (UNIC)
UNVR
UNILEVER INDONESIA (UNVR)
75
APPENDIC 2
Data for Each Variable
Company
C_CFOt+1
2006
C_CFOt
2005
2004
C_SALES
2005
2004
2003
C_COGS
2005
2004
2003
2005
2004
2003
ADES
-1.3E+11
-1E+11
1.6E+10
-1E+11
1.6E+10
9.53E+09
1.4E+11
1.15E+11
1.721E+11
1.2E+11
1.07E+11
1.07E+11
ADMG
-9.4E+10
2.9E+11
6.6E+11
2.9E+11
6.6E+11
2.43E+11
4.34E+12
4.62E+12
3.078E+12
3.74E+12
3.88E+12
2.86E+12
AISA
1.9E+09
1.6E+10
1.4E+10
1.6E+10
1.4E+10
-6.91E+09
2.44E+11
2.12E+11
1.37E+11
1.9E+11
1.79E+11
1.04E+11
ALMI
-1.5E+11
2E+11
5.3E+10
2E+11
5.3E+10
-3.6E+10
1.71E+12
1.13E+12
8.928E+11
1.24E+12
1.02E+12
8.23E+11
AMFG
5.2E+10
2.2E+11
3.1E+11
2.2E+11
3.1E+11
1.69E+11
1.89E+12
1.49E+12
1.301E+12
1.15E+12
9.29E+11
9.04E+11
ARGO
2.5E+09
3.9E+10
-9E+10
3.9E+10
-9E+10
1.15E+11
9.69E+11
9.54E+11
1.019E+12
9.64E+11
1.02E+12
1.04E+12
ARNA
3.9E+10
5.9E+10
3.1E+10
5.9E+10
3.1E+10
4.29E+10
3.29E+11
1.94E+11
1.819E+11
2E+11
1.38E+11
1.26E+11
AUTO
2.7E+11
2E+11
1.2E+11
2E+11
1.2E+11
9.08E+10
3.78E+12
2.82E+12
2.009E+12
3.13E+12
2.36E+12
1.74E+12
BATI
-8.5E+10
7.9E+10
6.3E+10
7.9E+10
6.3E+10
1.75E+11
8.16E+11
5.59E+11
5.8E+11
-4E+11
3.13E+11
2.9E+11
BIMA
3.4E+09
4.9E+09
8.9E+09
4.9E+09
8.9E+09
-2.11E+10
3.85E+10
2.16E+10
1.927E+10
3.65E+10
3.68E+10
4.14E+10
BRAM
1.9E+11
1.4E+11
1.7E+11
1.4E+11
1.7E+11
1.3E+11
1.71E+12
1.47E+12
1.145E+12
1.38E+12
1.17E+09
9.86E+11
BRNA
2.2E+10
2.1E+10
3.5E+10
2.1E+10
3.5E+10
4.75E+10
2.79E+11
2.67E+11
1.993E+11
2.19E+11
1.97E+11
1.6E+11
BRPT
-2.4E+11
-3E+11
8.8E+10
-3E+11
8.8E+10
6.56E+10
7.53E+11
1.28E+12
1.896E+12
8.08E+11
1.04E+12
1.89E+12
DPNS
7.6E+09
5.3E+09
7.4E+09
5.3E+09
7.4E+09
9.77E+09
7.69E+10
6.9E+10
9.06E+10
6.38E+10
5.92E+10
5.64E+10
DSUC
3.1E+10
7.6E+09
-2E+10
7.6E+09
-2E+10
6.24E+09
4.62E+11
5.22E+11
5.122E+11
4E+11
3.87E+11
4.05E+11
DYNA
8.2E+10
9.3E+10
1.3E+11
9.3E+10
1.3E+11
8.5E+10
8.97E+11
7.21E+11
5.566E+11
7.5E+11
5.7E+11
4.3E+11
ESTI
-2.4E+09
-2E+10
3.7E+10
-2E+10
3.7E+10
4.31E+10
4.62E+11
4.9E+11
3.628E+11
4.5E+10
4.64E+11
3.91E+11
FASW
8.9E+10
1E+11
1.2E+11
1E+11
1.2E+11
1.61E+11
1.52E+12
1.4E+12
1.136E+12
1.25E+12
1.19E+12
1.04E+12
GGRM
1.9E+12
1.6E+12
8.3E+11
1.6E+12
8.3E+11
2.11E+12
2.45E+13
2.41E+13
2.307E+13
1.97E+13
1.95E+13
1.86E+13
3E+11
2.5E+11
5.9E+11
2.5E+11
5.9E+11
5.64E+11
4.78E+12
6.71E+12
6.116E+12
4.1E+12
5.68E+12
4.86E+12
GJTL
76
HDTX
1.2E+10
3.1E+10
5.2E+10
3.1E+10
5.2E+10
1.48E+10
8.65E+11
7.65E+11
5.058E+11
8.38E+11
7.49E+11
6.03E+11
IGAR
2.8E+07
8.2E+09
-7E+09
8.2E+09
-7E+09
4.36E+10
4.47E+11
3.71E+11
3.459E+11
3.88E+11
3.14E+11
2.86E+11
IKAI
2.4E+10
4.7E+10
-1E+09
4.7E+10
-1E+09
5.79E+10
2.83E+11
2.37E+11
1.579E+11
2.15E+11
1.82E+11
1.77E+11
IKBI
5E+10
1.5E+10
1.3E+10
1.5E+10
1.3E+10
7.35E+09
1.44E+12
8.79E+11
5.309E+11
1.34E+12
9.17E+11
5.55E+11
INAF
7.3E+10
5.5E+10
1.6E+11
5.5E+10
1.6E+11
4.07E+10
6.66E+11
6.48E+11
5.213E+11
4.85E+11
4.73E+11
3.61E+11
INAI
8.3E+10
3.4E+10
1.1E+10
3.4E+10
1.1E+10
-7.24E+09
4.24E+11
4.41E+11
2.808E+11
4.36E+11
4.38E+11
2.93E+11
INDF
1.5E+12
8E+11
1.8E+12
8E+11
1.8E+12
1.56E+12
1.81E+13
1.77E+13
1.794E+13
1.43E+13
1.33E+13
1.34E+13
INDS
-6.5E+10
6.4E+09
-5E+08
6.4E+09
-5E+08
5.82E+09
5.03E+11
2.86E+11
1.999E+11
3.82E+11
2.67E+11
1.9E+11
INKP
4.2E+12
1.7E+12
9.6E+11
1.7E+12
9.6E+11
1.78E+12
1.17E+13
1.45E+13
1.317E+13
1.2E+13
1.21E+13
1.19E+13
INTP
1.2E+12
1.3E+12
1.3E+12
1.3E+12
1.3E+12
1.39E+12
5.53E+12
4.5E+12
4.032E+12
3.57E+12
3.09E+12
2.76E+11
JECC
2.4E+09
2.4E+10
1.7E+10
2.4E+10
1.7E+10
2.29E+10
4.5E+11
3.53E+11
2.628E+11
3.7E+11
3.11E+11
2.54E+11
JPFA
2E+11
1.5E+11
2E+11
1.5E+11
2E+11
-2.26E+10
5.29E+12
4.55E+12
4.409E+12
4.43E+12
3.94E+12
3.8E+12
KAEF
1.4E+11
3.1E+10
7.5E+10
3.1E+10
7.5E+10
3.15E+11
1.71E+12
1.91E+12
1.773E+12
1.24E+12
1.28E+12
1.27E+12
KDSI
2.9E+10
1.8E+10
-6E+08
1.8E+10
-6E+08
-1.04E+09
6.21E+11
5.32E+11
5.012E+11
5.63E+11
4.92E+11
4.69E+11
KICI
3.6E+09
1.2E+09
1.3E+10
1.2E+09
1.3E+10
-5.31E+09
9.08E+10
8.74E+10
7.974E+10
8.57E+10
8.4E+10
8.51E+10
KKGI
5.4E+09
5.4E+09
1.5E+09
5.4E+09
1.5E+09
3.27E+10
1.37E+11
1.72E+11
1.373E+11
8.86E+10
1.29E+11
1.24E+11
KLBF
6.4E+11
4.4E+11
4.3E+11
4.4E+11
4.3E+11
5.07E+11
5.67E+12
3.42E+12
2.812E+12
2.91E+12
1.46E+12
1.27E+12
LAPD
5E+08
3.8E+09
-3E+09
3.8E+09
-3E+09
6.49E+08
8.52E+10
8.34E+10
5.72E+10
7.87E+10
8.44E+10
5.39E+10
LMPI
6.1E+09
4.7E+07
1.8E+09
4.7E+07
1.8E+09
1.98E+10
2.56E+11
2E+11
2.307E+11
2.23E+11
2.09E+11
2.08E+11
LMSH
9.8E+08
-5E+08
7.2E+09
-5E+08
7.2E+09
3.75E+09
1.03E+11
8.12E+09
6.252E+10
9.21E+10
7.62E+10
5.94E+10
LPIN
-2.6E+09
-7E+09
2.7E+09
-7E+09
2.7E+09
1.62E+09
4.22E+10
3.85E+10
5.101E+10
3.51E+10
3.11E+10
2.38E+10
MLBI
1.7E+11
1.4E+11
1.5E+11
1.4E+11
1.5E+11
1.1E+11
8.3E+11
6.93E+11
5.308E+11
4.78E+11
4.02E+11
2.91E+11
MLIA
1.1E+11
1.8E+11
4.5E+11
1.8E+11
4.5E+11
2.21E+11
2.78E+12
2.62E+12
2.112E+12
2.14E+12
1.96E+12
1.8E+12
MRAT
2.3E+09
1.2E+10
2.2E+10
1.2E+10
2.2E+10
1.52E+10
2.17E+11
2.51E+11
2.251E+11
9.32E+10
1.12E+11
9.88E+10
MYOR
2.4E+10
1.6E+11
1E+11
1.6E+11
1E+11
1.28E+11
1.84E+12
1.37E+12
1.047E+12
1.33E+12
1.04E+12
8.05E+11
MYRX
1E+11
1E+11
3.4E+10
1E+11
3.4E+10
2.22E+10
3.95E+11
3.67E+11
2.783E+11
3.75E+11
3.21E+11
2.68E+11
77
MYTX
1.2E+11
8.9E+10
4.9E+10
8.9E+10
4.9E+10
1.89E+10
2.28E+12
2.12E+13
1.852E+12
2.12E+12
2E+12
1.81E+12
PAFI
3.6E+09
3.4E+08
4.5E+10
3.4E+08
4.5E+10
-1.8E+10
4.35E+11
4.07E+11
3.804E+11
4.46E+11
4.06E+11
4.09E+11
PICO
-3.4E+10
1.5E+10
3E+10
1.5E+10
3E+10
-6.45E+09
2.83E+11
1.81E+11
1.426E+11
1.95E+11
1.6E+11
1.55E+11
POLY
-8.8E+11
-1E+11
1.8E+10
-1E+11
1.8E+10
2.2E+11
3.72E+12
1.87E+12
2.041E+12
3.32E+12
7.67E+10
2.42E+12
PRAS
5.7E+10
3.4E+10
5.1E+10
3.4E+10
5.1E+10
2.05E+10
6.65E+11
4.72E+11
3.384E+11
6.43E+11
4.89E+11
3.43E+11
PSDN
5.1E+09
8.6E+09
1.8E+10
8.6E+09
1.8E+10
-5.67E+10
3.91E+11
2.65E+11
8.208E+10
3.26E+11
2.19E+11
7.64E+10
PYFA
-2.7E+09
1.6E+09
4.5E+09
1.6E+09
4.5E+09
3.97E+09
4.39E+10
3.13E+10
2.628E+10
1.62E+10
1.32E+10
1.03E+10
RICY
1.2E+10
1E+10
5.6E+09
1E+10
5.6E+09
1.49E+10
3.12E+11
1.96E+11
1.937E+11
2.13E+11
1.57E+11
1.73E+11
SCCO
1.3E+11
1.5E+10
5.7E+10
1.5E+10
5.7E+10
8.35E+09
1.24E+12
9.12E+11
5.89E+11
1.21E+12
9.63E+11
5.69E+11
SIMA
3.6E+08
6.9E+09
1.8E+09
6.9E+09
1.8E+09
1.32E+10
9.59E+10
7.16E+10
6.415E+10
7.71E+10
6.33E+10
5.39E+10
SKLT
3.4E+09
2.5E+09
1.2E+09
2.5E+09
1.2E+09
-2.85E+09
1.93E+11
1.65E+11
1.481E+11
1.37E+11
1.14E+11
1.31E+11
SMCB
4.5E+11
2.1E+11
1.2E+11
2.1E+11
1.2E+11
3.11E+10
2.78E+12
2.34E+12
2.163E+12
2.3E+12
2.2E+12
2.02E+12
SMGR
1.6E+12
1.2E+12
8.5E+11
1.2E+12
8.5E+11
1.11E+12
7.16E+12
5.84E+12
5.474E+12
4.64E+12
4.01E+12
3.56E+12
SMSM
7.4E+10
1.5E+11
4.9E+10
1.5E+11
4.9E+10
5.83E+10
9.41E+11
7.23E+11
6.047E+11
6.64E+11
5.56E+11
4.84E+11
SOBI
3.4E+10
1.2E+11
1.3E+11
1.2E+11
1.3E+11
2.91E+10
7.2E+12
5.5E+11
4.621E+11
5.44E+11
4.15E+11
4.04E+11
SPMA
9.9E+09
1.1E+10
-2E+09
1.1E+10
-2E+09
2.3E+10
5.81E+11
5.62E+11
4.694E+11
4.78E+11
4.55E+11
3.96E+11
SQMI
1.8E+08
2.7E+09
2.6E+10
2.7E+09
2.6E+10
-7.36E+08
2.02E+10
5.08E+10
2.973E+10
1.92E+10
4.3E+10
3.15E+10
SRSN
3.6E+10
5.4E+09
-6E+09
5.4E+09
-6E+09
1.28E+10
2.59E+11
1.13E+11
1.458E+11
2.1E+11
1.56E+11
1.37E+11
STTP
1.4E+10
5.1E+09
7.2E+09
5.1E+09
7.2E+09
1.307E+12
6.33E+11
7.26E+11
6.743E+11
5.54E+11
5.91E+11
5.74E+11
TBMS
2.9E+11
4.7E+10
5.1E+10
4.7E+10
5.1E+10
-6.53E+10
2.62E+12
1.71E+12
9.589E+11
2.81E+12
1.76E+12
9.82E+11
TEJA
5.9E+10
-3E+09
2.5E+11
-3E+09
2.5E+11
1.69E+10
6.26E+10
1.63E+11
6.175E+11
1.43E+11
3.05E+11
6.54E+11
TFCO
-3.1E+11
3.9E+12
2.1E+11
3.9E+12
2.1E+11
1.3E+11
6.97E+12
2.86E+12
2.043E+12
2.76E+12
2.71E+12
2.25E+12
TIRT
7.2E+10
-1E+11
3E+10
-1E+11
3E+10
6.71E+09
7.23E+11
7.06E+11
3.704E+11
7.65E+11
6.55E+11
3.67E+11
TKIM
3.7E+11
7.5E+11
9.5E+11
7.5E+11
9.5E+11
4.01E+11
1.31E+12
9.18E+12
8.647E+12
7.63E+12
6.93E+12
6.76E+12
TOTO
9.9E+10
4.6E+10
4.6E+10
4.6E+10
4.6E+10
5.69E+10
6.6E+11
5.42E+11
4.472E+11
5.44E+11
4.18E+11
3.47E+11
TRST
1.5E+11
-3E+10
1.8E+10
-3E+10
1.8E+10
1.36E+11
9.04E+11
8.13E+11
7.388E+11
9.15E+11
7.63E+11
6.18E+11
78
TSPC
2.3E+11
3E+11
4.2E+11
3E+11
4.2E+11
3.21E+11
6.86E+08
1.99E+11
1.965E+12
1.41E+12
1.3E+12
1.16E+12
ULTJ
1.1E+11
3.6E+10
3.6E+10
3.6E+10
3.6E+10
4.04E+09
6.41E+11
5.28E+11
4.647E+11
4.96E+11
3.72E+11
3.31E+11
UNIC
2.9E+13
1.9E+13
4.2E+10
1.9E+13
4.2E+10
3.14E+11
2.9E+14
-3.7E+13
2.492E+12
2.54E+14
2.49E+12
2.12E+12
UNVR
2.2E+12
1.7E+12
1.4E+12
1.7E+12
1.4E+12
1.26E+12
9.8E+12
9.02E+12
8.094E+12
5.1E+12
4.32E+12
3.91E+12
(C_INT)
2005
5.988E+09
3.728E+10
2.476E+10
1.519E+10
795327000
2.471E+10
1.586E+10
2.216E+10
614000000
40997800
5.232E+10
2.707E+10
5.272E+10
41859914
2.085E+10
3.089E+10
6.862E+09
8.34E+10
5.158E+11
1.382E+11
2004
2E+09
3E+10
1.9E+10
2.7E+10
9E+09
3E+10
1.2E+10
1.1E+10
2.1E+09
6.3E+08
5E+10
-1.1E+10
1.6E+11
-9.7E+07
2E+10
1.7E+10
4.4E+09
7.5E+10
3.2E+11
1.4E+11
2003
100000000
3.152E+10
2.319E+10
2.415E+10
1.256E+10
9.267E+10
1.325E+10
9.63E+09
6.847E+09
2.106E+09
2.85E+10
1.055E+10
5.543E+10
151952878
1.707E+10
1.913E+10
6.644E+09
8.724E+10
3.46E+11
1.136E+11
(C_TAX)
2005
328000000
3.02E+10
3.977E+09
1.156E+10
1.163E+11
4.854E+09
1.301E+10
1.033E+11
1.737E+10
235518118
4.298E+10
7.183E+09
1.279E+10
6.323E+09
2.437E+09
1.721E+10
1.212E+10
289636145
7.85E+11
5.786E+10
Company
ADES
ADMG
AISA
ALMI
AMFG
ARGO
ARNA
AUTO
BATI
BIMA
BRAM
BRNA
BRPT
DPNS
DSUC
DYNA
ESTI
FASW
GGRM
GJTL
(C_OE)
2005
1.41E+11
1.2E+11
1.25E+10
6.1E+10
2.6E+11
5.61E+10
4E+10
4.26E+11
-2.6E+11
9.94E+09
1.56E+11
3.67E+10
2.25E+11
1.58E+10
9.84E+10
8.2E+10
2.76E+10
1.17E+11
1.99E+12
3.31E+11
2004
8.9E+10
1.4E+11
2.3E+10
4.6E+10
2.3E+11
5.8E+10
2.7E+10
3.3E+11
2.8E+11
8.5E+09
1.6E+11
1.7E+11
2.1E+11
1.6E+10
1.1E+11
7.3E+10
3.1E+10
1E+11
1.9E+12
4.4E+11
2003
8.2E+10
1.74E+11
1.83E+10
5.5E+10
2.15E+11
7.02E+10
2.77E+10
2.59E+11
2.26E+11
1.01E+10
1.61E+11
2.37E+10
2.79E+11
1.85E+11
1.17E+11
6.84E+10
2.52E+10
8.99E+10
1.59E+12
6.06E+11
2004
70000000
2.12E+10
1.25E+09
7.74E+09
8.08E+10
7E+09
1.21E+10
6.74E+10
2.49E+10
8122887
1.69E+10
3.76E+09
9.09E+09
-6.42E+08
7.6E+09
2.91E+10
2.28E+10
58228312
8.72E+11
6.63E+10
2003
2.14E+09
2.08E+10
2.21E+08
2.08E+10
1.33E+11
4.7E+09
5.21E+09
9.54E+10
6.49E+10
22880268
2.92E+10
1.2E+10
3.22E+10
1.62E+09
5.31E+09
2.74E+10
1.41E+10
6.16E+09
8.26E+11
3.5E+10
(C_OTHER)
2005
5.41E+11
7.98E+12
4.6E+11
2.85E+12
3.19E+12
1.98E+12
5.39E+11
7.27E+12
9.5E+10
8.04E+10
3.2E+12
5.48E+11
2.16E+12
1.58E+11
9.76E+11
1.68E+12
5.73E+11
2.87E+12
4.59E+13
9.16E+12
2004
3E+11
8E+12
4.2E+11
2.2E+12
2.4E+12
2.2E+12
3.5E+11
5.5E+12
1.1E+12
5.9E+10
1.5E+12
5.9E+11
2.6E+12
1.4E+11
1.1E+12
1.3E+12
9.7E+11
2.6E+12
4.6E+13
1.2E+13
2003
3.5E+11
5.9E+12
2.9E+11
1.9E+12
2.4E+12
2.1E+12
3.1E+11
4E+12
9.9E+11
9.4E+10
2.2E+12
3.6E+11
4.1E+12
3.2E+11
1.1E+12
1E+12
7.6E+11
2.2E+12
4.2E+13
1.1E+13
79
HDTX
IGAR
IKAI
IKBI
INAF
INAI
INDF
INDS
INKP
INTP
JECC
JPFA
KAEF
KDSI
KICI
KKGI
KLBF
LAPD
LMPI
LMSH
LPIN
MLBI
MLIA
MRAT
MYOR
MYRX
MYTX
PAFI
PICO
3.4E+10
2.55E+10
4.17E+10
3.46E+10
1.64E+11
3.6E+10
2.76E+12
-3.6E+10
1.81E+12
8.06E+10
4.21E+10
7.11E+11
4.92E+11
5.75E+10
1.43E+10
2.1E+10
1.9E+12
4.29E+09
3.25E+10
4.82E+09
1.16E+10
2.48E+11
4.98E+11
1.02E+11
2.83E+11
2.78E+10
1.8E+11
4.99E+10
1.53E+10
3.2E+10
2.5E+10
3.7E+10
3.4E+10
1.7E+11
3E+10
2.5E+12
3.1E+10
1.6E+12
6.9E+11
3.7E+10
5.6E+11
5.2E+11
6E+10
1.6E+10
3E+10
1.2E+12
3.9E+09
3.5E+10
3.8E+09
9.5E+09
2.1E+11
5.4E+11
1.1E+11
2.1E+11
2.4E+10
1.8E+11
5.4E+10
1.7E+10
3.39E+10
2.84E+10
3.83E+10
3.87E+10
1.85E+11
3.28E+10
2.46E+12
2.31E+10
1.38E+12
5.82E+11
2.68E+10
5.66E+11
4.5E+11
6.05E+10
1.71E+10
2.67E+10
1.06E+12
3.52E+09
3.39E+10
3.46E+09
8.56E+09
1.67E+11
4.73E+11
1.03E+11
1.48E+11
2.54E+10
1.65E+11
3.91E+10
1.82E+10
3.446E+09
5.097E+09
1.926E+10
344854390
1.62E+10
2.803E+10
8.549E+11
5.502E+09
6.211E+11
3.904E+10
1.784E+10
-1.14E+10
7.542E+09
1.397E+10
43302341
5.307E+09
9.881E+10
2.148E+09
5.345E+09
759242639
755462045
892000000
7.13E+09
1.3E+09
3.309E+10
1.168E+09
1.025E+11
554465600
2.064E+10
1.4E+09
3.7E+09
5.6E+09
2.8E+09
2.8E+10
1.9E+10
9.2E+11
3.6E+09
1.5E+11
1.3E+10
1.7E+10
8E+10
3.6E+09
1.7E+10
5.3E+08
2.8E+08
8.6E+10
1.1E+09
7.6E+09
6E+08
8.8E+08
5.6E+09
9.8E+09
1.7E+09
5.1E+10
1.4E+10
8.5E+10
2.2E+09
1.7E+10
4.904E+09
8.191E+09
2.384E+09
5.452E+09
3.525E+10
1.839E+10
1.015E+12
2.975E+09
1.843E+11
1.743E+10
1.296E+10
7.722E+10
1.162E+10
3.912E+09
2.283E+09
437066110
6.574E+10
3.507E+09
2.329E+10
697266608
2.179E+09
4E+09
1.376E+10
2.039E+09
6.782E+10
1.835E+10
5.512E+10
1.078E+09
8.419E+10
2.753E+09
1.266E+10
4.668E+09
3.404E+10
7.623E+09
8.252E+09
5.326E+11
1.075E+10
4.12E+11
3.883E+11
3.686E+09
-4.38E+09
4.447E+10
62877877
386720657
744359783
5.586E+11
464648556
1.021E+10
4.435E+09
661521291
5.307E+10
5.546E+09
3.382E+09
3.84E+10
7.034E+09
2.372E+09
441507972
553951147
5.28E+09
1.52E+10
8.56E+08
7.9E+09
5.11E+09
7.47E+09
2.89E+11
7.15E+09
1.15E+11
3.18E+11
3.83E+09
5.12E+10
2.95E+10
8.22E+08
1.45E+09
1.14E+09
2.86E+11
14319802
7.54E+09
1.7E+09
3.76E+09
3.47E+10
1.49E+10
9.87E+09
2.73E+10
1.01E+10
1.02E+10
4.12E+08
1.59E+09
4.11E+09
1.5E+10
7.95E+08
5.32E+09
2.56E+10
6.88E+09
3.21E+11
1.43E+10
6.54E+10
3.35E+11
1.46E+09
4.66E+10
1.47E+10
2.18E+09
2.86E+09
1.61E+09
2.09E+11
6.65E+08
9.52E+09
1.09E+09
3.77E+09
4.07E+10
4.41E+09
7.95E+09
2.47E+10
1.5E+09
1.67E+09
3.7E+08
24255561
1.71E+12
8.7E+11
5.17E+11
2.83E+12
1.28E+12
8.98E+11
3.58E+13
8.6E+11
2.48E+13
8.29E+12
8.6E+11
1.03E+13
3.46E+12
1.24E+12
1.9E+11
2.47E+11
1.07E+13
1.67E+11
5.27E+11
2.05E+11
9.76E+10
1.47E+12
5.26E+12
4.05E+11
3.37E+12
7.03E+11
4.59E+12
9.32E+11
4.99E+11
1.5E+12
7.4E+11
4.6E+11
1.8E+12
1.2E+12
9.2E+11
3.3E+13
5.9E+11
2.8E+13
7.3E+12
7.1E+11
9E+12
3.7E+12
1.1E+12
1.8E+11
3.3E+11
6.1E+12
1.8E+11
4.6E+11
8.3E+10
8.1E+10
1.2E+12
4.7E+12
4.6E+11
2.6E+12
7E+11
2.3E+13
8.3E+11
3.5E+11
1.1E+12
6.4E+11
3.2E+11
1.1E+12
1.1E+12
6.4E+11
3.4E+13
4.2E+11
2.5E+13
3.9E+12
5.3E+11
8.9E+12
3.2E+12
1E+12
1.9E+11
2.6E+11
4.9E+12
1.2E+11
4.9E+11
1.2E+11
8.8E+10
9.2E+11
4.2E+12
4.2E+11
2E+12
5.7E+11
3.9E+12
8.5E+11
4.1E+11
80
POLY
PRAS
PSDN
PYFA
RICY
SCCO
SIMA
SKLT
SMCB
SMGR
SMSM
SOBI
SPMA
SQMI
SRSN
STTP
TBMS
TEJA
TFCO
TIRT
TKIM
TOTO
TRST
TSPC
ULTJ
UNIC
UNVR
-2.6E+11
2.67E+10
3.25E+10
2.06E+10
-4.6E+10
5.1E+10
7.45E+09
3.79E+10
5.76E+11
1.35E+12
-7.8E+10
1.02E+11
3.87E+10
3.24E+09
3.54E+10
6.73E+10
5E+10
4.49E+10
1E+11
-1.1E+11
1.06E+12
8.29E+10
8.58E+10
7.31E+11
1.55E+11
2.27E+11
2.63E+12
2.5E+12
2.5E+10
2.9E+10
1.8E+10
3.9E+10
5.1E+10
8E+09
3.2E+10
2.4E+11
1.1E+12
7E+10
8.8E+10
3.6E+10
1.5E+09
1.5E+10
5.1E+10
3.8E+10
1.4E+11
9E+10
3.7E+10
1.2E+12
6.6E+10
6.7E+09
6.8E+11
8.8E+10
2.1E+11
2.4E+12
3.98E+11
1.93E+10
2.78E+10
1.51E+10
3.41E+10
4.97E+10
7.12E+09
3.26E+10
2.38E+11
9.64E+11
6.43E+10
6.78E+10
3.21E+10
1.89E+09
2.17E+10
7.73E+10
3.45E+10
1.53E+11
7.36E+10
2.39E+10
1.12E+12
5.88E+10
5.76E+10
5.87E+11
7.36E+10
1.04E+13
2.82E+10
3.613E+09
8.564E+09
5.599E+09
858232968
1.397E+09
1.773E+10
557081317
354017216
1.293E+11
2.243E+11
2.235E+10
7.096E+09
4.693E+10
583401571
1.067E+10
2.919E+09
1.076E+10
135014823
7.894E+10
3.69E+10
4.855E+11
1.107E+10
4.972E+10
5.31E+10
5.354E+10
1.131E+11
3.612E+10
1.3E+10
7.3E+09
4.3E+09
6E+09
2.2E+10
1.9E+10
5.7E+08
3.3E+08
1E+11
2.7E+11
1.7E+10
8.3E+09
3.3E+10
5E+08
2.6E+09
7.2E+09
5.5E+09
4.7E+09
4.3E+10
2E+10
6E+10
7E+09
6.7E+10
3.8E+10
7.7E+10
5.1E+10
7.2E+10
7.801E+10
1.08E+10
2.349E+10
7.488E+09
9.911E+09
1.15E+10
706559552
1.248E+09
8.472E+10
3.221E+11
1.668E+10
6.608E+09
2.43E+10
1.255E+09
2.234E+09
2.659E+09
4.209E+09
8.757E+09
3.336E+10
1.427E+10
5.978E+10
7.14E+09
8.498E+09
4.159E+10
8.046E+10
7.593E+12
7.371E+11
3.212E+10
8.436E+09
978892385
502191977
1.237E+09
666091626
894118336
115955383
7.539E+09
3.996E+11
2.038E+10
3.75E+10
635875925
219848520
1.732E+10
9.842E+09
5.865E+09
2.618E+09
8.472E+09
4.801E+09
6.461E+10
2.185E+10
8.191E+09
2.063E+11
6.925E+09
2.751E+11
5.895E+09
2.35E+10
8.03E+09
4.04E+08
6.11E+08
1.73E+08
7.63E+09
2.4E+09
1.24E+08
2.47E+10
1.74E+11
1.41E+10
1.86E+10
5.15E+08
5.55E+08
3.03E+09
1.03E+10
9.11E+09
1.18E+08
3.87E+10
1.6E+09
5.9E+10
2.76E+10
5.1E+09
2.11E+11
3.91E+09
1.04E+11
5.12E+11
1.23E+10
5.77E+09
1.58E+09
5.82E+08
1.85E+08
8.31E+09
1.21E+08
2.66E+08
4.18E+09
1.32E+11
3.23E+10
2.09E+10
6.65E+08
2.45E+09
3.53E+08
1.03E+10
4.46E+10
5.87E+08
4.34E+10
3.75E+08
4.71E+10
1.63E+10
2.63E+09
1.71E+10
4.25E+09
-5.7E+14
-1.7E+13
6.92E+12
1.32E+12
7.48E+11
8.06E+10
4.72E+11
2.51E+12
1.75E+11
3.66E+11
5.58E+12
1.26E+13
1.42E+12
7.77E+12
1.13E+12
4.07E+10
5.27E+11
1.26E+12
5.45E+12
2.57E+11
5.98E+12
1.56E+12
9.79E+12
1.27E+12
1.99E+12
2.11E+12
1.32E+12
-3.4E+13
1.46E+13
4.5E+12
9.5E+11
5E+11
6.5E+10
4.1E+11
1.9E+12
1.4E+11
3.1E+11
4.8E+12
1.1E+13
1.3E+12
9.5E+11
1.1E+12
7E+10
2.9E+11
1.4E+12
3.5E+12
3.6E+11
5.5E+12
1.4E+12
1.6E+13
1E+12
1.6E+12
2E+12
1E+12
4.7E+12
1.4E+13
4.7E+12
7E+11
2.7E+11
5.6E+10
4E+11
1.2E+12
1.1E+11
3.2E+11
4.5E+12
9.3E+12
1.1E+12
9.3E+11
9E+11
6.8E+10
2.9E+11
1.4E+12
2.1E+12
1.4E+12
4.3E+12
7.7E+11
1.6E+13
8.2E+11
1.3E+12
3.4E+12
9.5E+11
-2E+13
-2E+12
81
Company
ADES
ADMG
AISA
ALMI
AMFG
ARGO
ARNA
AUTO
BATI
BIMA
BRAM
BRNA
BRPT
DPNS
DSUC
DYNA
ESTI
FASW
GGRM
GJTL
HDTX
IGAR
IKAI
IKBI
INAF
INAI
A_ AR
2005
-1.3E+11
2.89E+11
1.57E+10
1.97E+11
2.23E+11
3.93E+10
5.86E+10
2E+11
7.88E+10
4.9E+09
1.37E+11
2.06E+10
-3.1E+11
5.3E+09
7.64E+09
9.27E+10
-1.9E+10
1E+11
1.58E+12
2.47E+11
3.05E+10
8.2E+09
4.7E+10
1.51E+10
5.49E+10
3.39E+10
2004
1.64E+10
6.62E+11
1.42E+10
5.3E+10
3.07E+11
-9.2E+10
3.13E+10
1.23E+11
6.25E+10
8.86E+09
1.7E+11
3.48E+10
8.79E+10
7.4E+09
-2E+10
1.3E+11
3.74E+10
1.2E+11
8.35E+11
5.91E+11
5.25E+10
-7.3E+09
-1.5E+09
1.34E+10
1.59E+11
1.06E+10
2003
9.53E+09
2.43E+11
-6.9E+09
-3.6E+10
1.69E+11
1.15E+11
4.29E+10
9.08E+10
1.75E+11
-2.1E+10
1.3E+11
4.75E+10
6.56E+10
9.77E+09
6.24E+09
8.5E+10
4.31E+10
1.61E+11
2.11E+12
5.64E+11
1.48E+10
4.36E+10
5.79E+10
7.35E+09
4.07E+10
-7.2E+09
A_ AP
2005
1.53E+11
-1E+10
-1.5E+10
-4.9E+11
-8.6E+10
1.57E+10
-4.7E+10
-8.5E+09
-1.8E+11
2.46E+09
8.64E+10
1.55E+10
4.61E+11
4.38E+09
-3.5E+09
2.69E+10
7.32E+10
7.56E+09
-4.3E+11
3.95E+11
3.81E+09
-2.4E+10
-7.2E+10
-3E+10
1.23E+11
2.62E+10
2004
-8.9E+09
-5.5E+10
-5.3E+09
5.94E+10
5.81E+09
1.32E+11
1.19E+10
6.56E+10
-2E+10
2.07E+10
3.94E+10
1.52E+10
-5.5E+10
-5.8E+09
2.32E+10
4.41E+10
-4.8E+09
1.21E+09
-1.5E+11
1.3E+11
-1.5E+11
1.41E+09
-7E+09
5.81E+10
1.85E+10
1.27E+10
2003
8.82E+09
7.13E+09
1.64E+10
-1.4E+10
-8.1E+09
6.71E+10
4.85E+09
1.18E+11
2.23E+10
-1.7E+09
2.81E+10
2.05E+09
-2.5E+10
9.83E+09
-3E+10
3.24E+10
1.04E+10
1.6E+08
1.59E+10
1.6E+10
4.51E+11
1.38E+10
-7.5E+08
6.15E+10
5.2E+10
-1.3E+12
A_ Inv
2005
3.13E+11
8.79E+11
1.99E+10
-5.6E+11
1.96E+11
1.69E+11
-2.8E+10
4.15E+11
-1.8E+11
1.26E+10
4.2E+11
6.74E+10
9.02E+11
4.52E+10
-1.3E+10
1.96E+11
1.86E+11
2.14E+11
5.84E+11
1.27E+12
1.97E+11
3.21E+10
-2.2E+10
5.39E+10
3.29E+11
7.08E+10
2004
1.41E+10
-2.4E+10
-3.9E+10
-8.3E+10
1.22E+11
-1.1E+09
1.33E+09
9.52E+10
-9.6E+10
-1.4E+10
1.35E+11
8.83E+09
-1.3E+11
4.78E+09
-4.6E+09
1.16E+10
4.47E+10
5.34E+10
1.17E+12
-6.8E+11
7.62E+09
-8.3E+09
-9.2E+09
2.49E+10
7.24E+09
1.13E+10
2003
-2.2E+09
-1.4E+10
1.7E+10
7.87E+10
7.85E+09
4.28E+10
1.01E+09
1.48E+11
4.54E+10
-4.2E+08
2.99E+10
2.9E+09
-5.5E+09
9.86E+09
5.62E+09
4.71E+10
3.11E+09
5.33E+09
1.35E+12
-3.6E+11
-2.3E+10
2.96E+10
1.81E+10
3.27E+10
-3.3E+10
4.83E+10
DEPRE
2005
1.14E+11
1.55E+12
6.01E+10
2.83E+11
1.12E+12
7.66E+11
9.53E+10
5.13E+11
1.46E+11
9.61E+10
8.56E+11
1.32E+11
1.01E+12
2.74E+10
2.28E+11
3.86E+11
3.38E+10
9.96E+11
2.44E+12
1.99E+12
5.54E+11
9.39E+10
3.63E+11
9.64E+10
1.12E+11
1.17E+11
2004
1.58E+11
1.36E+12
3.89E+10
2.5E+11
9.96E+11
6.78E+08
7.53E+10
4.02E+11
1.3E+11
8.94E+10
7.72E+11
1.09E+11
1.01E+12
2.68E+10
2.11E+11
3.19E+11
4.03E+11
8.87E+11
2.01E+12
1.87E+12
4.78E+11
8.04E+10
3.18E+11
1.01E+11
1.01E+11
1.04E+11
2003
2.28E+11
1.59E+12
2.26E+10
2.04E+11
8.74E+11
5.83E+11
6E+10
3.18E+11
1.22E+11
7.84E+10
6.61E+11
8.86E+10
9.65E+11
2.47E+10
1.92E+11
2.58E+11
3.5E+11
7.54E+11
1.69E+12
2.8E+12
4.13E+11
7.54E+10
2.73E+11
8.84E+10
9.44E+10
9.13E+10
82
INDF
INDS
INKP
INTP
JECC
JPFA
KAEF
KDSI
KICI
KKGI
KLBF
LAPD
LMPI
LMSH
LPIN
MLBI
MLIA
MRAT
MYOR
MYRX
MYTX
PAFI
PICO
POLY
PRAS
PSDN
PYFA
RICY
SCCO
8.01E+11
6.41E+09
1.73E+12
1.32E+12
2.4E+10
1.48E+11
3.06E+10
1.83E+10
1.24E+09
5.4E+09
4.41E+11
3.76E+09
47385673
-5.5E+08
-7.3E+09
1.45E+11
1.81E+11
1.17E+10
1.57E+11
1.03E+11
8.9E+10
3.4E+08
1.55E+10
-1E+11
3.41E+10
8.59E+09
1.57E+09
1.03E+10
1.49E+10
1.84E+12
-4.8E+08
9.63E+11
1.3E+12
1.71E+10
2E+11
7.5E+10
-6.1E+08
1.31E+10
1.46E+09
4.25E+11
-3.4E+09
1.79E+09
7.15E+09
2.69E+09
1.5E+11
4.49E+11
2.19E+10
1.04E+11
3.36E+10
4.85E+10
4.51E+10
3.02E+10
1.79E+10
5.1E+10
1.81E+10
4.54E+09
5.59E+09
5.72E+10
1.56E+12
5.82E+09
1.78E+12
1.39E+12
2.29E+10
-2.3E+10
3.15E+11
-1E+09
-5.3E+09
3.27E+10
5.07E+11
6.49E+08
1.98E+10
3.75E+09
1.62E+09
1.1E+11
2.21E+11
1.52E+10
1.28E+11
2.22E+10
1.89E+10
-1.8E+10
-6.5E+09
2.2E+11
2.05E+10
-5.7E+10
3.97E+09
1.49E+10
8.35E+09
1.72E+12
-7.8E+10
1.7E+12
-1.3E+11
-2.9E+10
1.08E+11
1.54E+11
-8.4E+09
1.42E+10
-2.4E+09
1.83E+11
-3.6E+09
7.8E+09
9.22E+09
-2.6E+09
2.78E+10
2.02E+11
8.39E+08
-1.9E+11
-6.8E+10
-1.3E+10
4.8E+10
-3.5E+10
-6.6E+11
4.02E+10
6.06E+09
-1.3E+09
-3.5E+09
1.59E+11
-9.8E+11
7.21E+10
2.82E+11
-1.7E+10
4.86E+10
7.32E+10
-2.8E+10
1.18E+10
22622068
-1.6E+09
1.55E+11
3.59E+09
1.04E+10
-1.1E+09
-7.2E+08
1.03E+10
-2.7E+10
-4.7E+09
2.67E+10
-1E+11
6.25E+10
2.07E+10
2.18E+10
2.14E+09
2.69E+10
-1E+09
2.13E+08
7.95E+09
1.38E+10
-1.7E+11
6.08E+10
-9.7E+11
7.96E+10
1.53E+10
1.55E+10
-4.2E+10
2.61E+10
1.74E+09
-3.9E+09
4.82E+10
-2E+09
3.65E+09
2.19E+09
2.25E+09
2.44E+10
2.71E+10
7.95E+09
7.1E+10
8.21E+10
1.9E+11
3.53E+10
-1.2E+10
1.35E+11
-2.6E+09
8.28E+08
6.26E+08
-1.8E+09
1.49E+11
4.09E+12
-4.1E+10
3.34E+12
4.19E+10
5.16E+10
4.71E+11
4E+11
6E+10
3.52E+10
2.62E+09
7.56E+11
-5.4E+08
4.88E+10
2.71E+10
-2.4E+09
1.29E+11
9.04E+11
9.07E+10
8.76E+10
-9.9E+10
1.85E+11
1.59E+11
2.27E+10
-3.2E+10
2.87E+11
3.61E+10
7.34E+09
4.4E+10
4.19E+11
4.07E+11
3.42E+10
-3.8E+11
1.99E+11
2.14E+10
1.16E+11
2.1E+10
6.79E+09
1.59E+09
3.75E+09
5.53E+11
-3.9E+09
9.95E+10
2.63E+09
4.96E+09
-9.4E+08
1.53E+11
-7E+08
-1.3E+10
-7.4E+09
-7.1E+09
2.03E+10
2.72E+10
-1.5E+10
1.77E+10
2.45E+10
1.74E+09
4.7E+10
2.35E+10
6.61E+10
4.63E+10
-5.9E+10
2.83E+09
-1.2E+09
4.73E+10
-8.6E+10
2.14E+10
1.04E+10
-1.1E+10
1.41E+11
3.53E+09
-8.8E+10
2.7E+09
1.66E+09
1.12E+10
-1.3E+10
-4E+09
6.18E+10
3.49E+10
1.05E+10
1.6E+10
-5.4E+09
-2.4E+10
9.08E+09
6.62E+09
5.83E+08
9.2E+09
1.11E+10
3.26E+12
6.55E+10
1.87E+13
3.85E+12
1.73E+11
9.73E+11
1.93E+11
1.61E+11
9.3E+10
7.43E+10
5.72E+11
8.93E+09
1.41E+11
1.3E+10
6.71E+09
2.25E+11
1.98E+09
4.96E+10
5.26E+11
4.47E+11
2.97E+11
3.36E+11
1.46E+11
6.29E+12
1.97E+11
6.68E+10
1.3E+10
8.06E+10
1.91E+11
2.89E+12
5.09E+10
1.66E+13
3.39E+12
1.64E+11
8.54E+11
1.66E+11
1.43E+11
7.89E+10
7.19E+10
3.94E+11
7.36E+09
1.66E+11
1.17E+10
6.99E+09
2.19E+11
1.72E+12
4.33E+10
4.49E+11
4.24E+11
1.65E+11
2.98E+11
8.86E+10
5.71E+12
1.61E+11
7.82E+10
9.66E+09
7.17E+10
1.73E+11
2.37E+12
4.51E+10
1.46E+13
2.91E+12
1.63E+11
7.32E+11
1.7E+11
1.22E+11
6.6E+10
6.89E+10
3.5E+11
6.1E+09
1.44E+11
1.06E+10
6.81E+09
1.96E+11
1.48E+12
3.74E+10
3.8E+11
3.97E+11
4.29E+10
2.59E+11
1.09E+11
5.1E+12
1.28E+11
7.05E+10
7.62E+09
6.41E+10
1.56E+11
83
SIMA
SKLT
SMCB
SMGR
SMSM
SOBI
SPMA
SQMI
SRSN
STTP
TBMS
TEJA
TFCO
TIRT
TKIM
TOTO
TRST
TSPC
ULTJ
UNIC
UNVR
6.91E+09
2.53E+09
2.1E+11
1.22E+12
1.54E+11
1.19E+11
1.15E+10
2.74E+09
5.38E+09
5.1E+09
4.69E+10
-3.4E+09
3.94E+12
-1.3E+11
7.52E+11
4.57E+10
-2.8E+10
2.98E+11
3.57E+10
4.23E+10
1.42E+12
1.77E+09
1.19E+09
1.15E+11
8.51E+11
4.91E+10
1.26E+11
-1.8E+09
2.6E+10
-5.9E+09
7.22E+09
5.06E+10
2.51E+11
2.13E+11
2.98E+10
9.49E+11
4.61E+10
1.81E+10
4.25E+11
3.56E+10
3.14E+11
1.26E+12
1.32E+10
-2.8E+09
3.11E+10
1.11E+12
5.83E+10
2.91E+10
2.3E+10
-7.4E+08
1.28E+10
-2.7E+10
-6.5E+10
1.69E+10
1.3E+11
6.71E+09
4.01E+11
5.69E+10
1.36E+11
3.21E+11
4.04E+09
-9.8E+12
8.79E+10
-1.2E+10
-4.5E+08
1.47E+11
-1.3E+09
-1.8E+11
-7.7E+10
-1.1E+10
2.07E+10
3.13E+10
1.1E+10
2.5E+11
-1.3E+10
-8E+12
3.67E+11
-1.8E+11
5.41E+10
2.23E+11
-1.3E+10
7.11E+10
1.89E+13
2.33E+11
6.88E+09
3.03E+09
3.41E+10
1.23E+11
-6.3E+09
-4.4E+09
7.6E+09
-9E+08
1.34E+11
-5.1E+09
4.57E+11
1.19E+10
-5.6E+10
-4.1E+09
-3.9E+09
-4.9E+11
-1.1E+10
8.19E+10
1.11E+10
1.87E+11
4.88E+10
2.73E+09
4.49E+09
6.95E+09
-9.6E+10
7.47E+09
1.39E+10
6.21E+08
-3E+10
-4.1E+09
6.31E+09
-1.6E+11
-2.6E+11
3.89E+11
5.01E+10
-4.9E+11
5.18E+11
1.17E+11
1.59E+11
-3.1E+08
-2.9E+13
-2.7E+09
-5.4E+09
2.5E+10
3.81E+11
5.56E+11
-1.3E+11
-7E+09
5.19E+10
7.97E+10
4.69E+10
1.09E+11
5.81E+11
3.72E+08
-1.1E+13
6.06E+11
1.4E+12
1.55E+11
4.93E+11
2.72E+10
1.71E+11
6.34E+13
7.59E+11
-5.1E+07
2.7E+09
9.13E+10
1.21E+11
-4.1E+10
5.32E+10
2.64E+10
-2E+09
6.45E+10
7.39E+08
3.73E+10
-1.3E+10
2.22E+10
6.06E+10
-1.9E+11
1.64E+11
4.78E+10
8.98E+10
1.94E+10
4.12E+11
-4.6E+09
1.56E+09
-2.3E+08
2.69E+11
8.74E+11
6.56E+10
-2.7E+10
2.03E+10
-3.8E+09
-3.3E+10
-1.7E+10
3.68E+10
-9E+10
-9.6E+09
1.23E+11
4.43E+11
-1.2E+11
9.33E+10
9.53E+08
6.38E+09
1.57E+14
3.43E+11
3.39E+10
8.94E+10
3.18E+12
4.15E+12
3.69E+11
5.14E+11
3.67E+11
1.5E+10
1.42E+11
1.62E+11
9.1E+10
7.35E+11
3.13E+12
1.54E+11
6.85E+12
2.26E+11
5.44E+11
2.14E+11
2.56E+11
1.47E+12
2.95E+11
3.14E+10
8.25E+10
2.8E+12
3.72E+12
3.25E+11
4.57E+11
3.18E+11
1.21E+10
3.63E+10
1.37E+11
7.35E+10
6.58E+11
2.98E+12
1.29E+11
5.44E+12
1.89E+11
4.65E+11
1.9E+11
1.96E+11
1.34E+12
3.92E+10
2.93E+10
8.37E+10
2.43E+12
3.3E+12
2.8E+11
4.07E+11
2.75E+11
8.61E+09
3.32E+10
1.12E+11
5.72E+10
5.79E+11
2.83E+12
1.06E+11
5.44E+12
1.64E+11
3.97E+11
1.73E+11
1.45E+11
-1.7E+14
1.01E+12
84
Company
ADES
ADMG
AISA
ALMI
AMFG
ARGO
ARNA
AUTO
BATI
BIMA
BRAM
BRNA
BRPT
DPNS
DSUC
DYNA
ESTI
FASW
GGRM
GJTL
HDTX
IGAR
IKAI
IKBI
INAF
INAI
INDF
INDS
INKP
INTP
JECC
JPFA
KAEF
KDSI
KICI
KKGI
KLBF
LAPD
LMPI
LMSH
LPIN
MLBI
MLIA
MRAT
MYOR
(OTHER)
2005
7.1E+10
6.5E+11
2.5E+10
3.2E+11
6.2E+11
8.3E+11
4E+10
-3E+11
1.3E+11
9.9E+10
3.8E+11
7.4E+10
-1E+11
-2E+10
2.9E+11
1.9E+11
-7E+10
7.8E+11
-5E+11
9.4E+11
2.7E+11
2E+10
3.4E+11
-1E+10
-1E+11
9.3E+10
6.5E+11
3.5E+10
1.7E+13
2.9E+12
9.5E+10
5.6E+11
-1E+11
8.7E+10
8.3E+10
7.3E+10
-7E+11
9.3E+09
8.1E+10
-9E+09
1.8E+10
3.7E+10
-7E+11
-5E+10
2E+11
2004
2.8E+11
9.1E+11
6.9E+10
3.8E+11
6.7E+11
1.3E+11
6.1E+10
1.1E+11
2.2E+11
1.7E+11
5.9E+11
8.5E+10
1.1E+12
-1E+10
2.4E+11
2.9E+11
3.7E+11
8.3E+11
-1E+12
2.2E+12
2.7E+11
5.9E+10
3.3E+11
1.3E+11
1E+11
1.2E+11
9.7E+11
1.1E+11
2E+13
3.1E+12
1.9E+11
9.7E+11
3.9E+10
1.8E+11
9.6E+10
6.7E+10
-4E+11
1.4E+10
1.3E+11
2.5E+09
4.5E+09
1.4E+11
2.2E+12
2.6E+10
4E+11
2003
2.54E+11
1.33E+12
2.3E+10
1.08E+11
6.23E+11
6.75E+11
3.43E+10
-8.3E+09
3.07E+10
1.25E+11
5.63E+11
7.04E+10
8.4E+11
7.4E+09
1.83E+11
1.68E+11
3.99E+11
7.41E+11
-2.3E+12
2.52E+12
8.77E+11
2.36E+10
2.16E+11
2.47E+11
3.49E+11
-1.3E+12
1.11E+12
5.28E+10
1.7E+13
2E+12
1.87E+11
8.73E+11
1.34E+11
1.61E+11
6.79E+10
7.72E+10
-2.8E+11
-6.5E+08
2.7E+11
7.64E+09
8.09E+09
7.7E+10
1.69E+12
3.41E+10
2.66E+11
MYRX
MYTX
PAFI
PICO
POLY
PRAS
PSDN
PYFA
RICY
SCCO
SIMA
SKLT
SMCB
SMGR
SMSM
SOBI
SPMA
SQMI
SRSN
STTP
TBMS
TEJA
TFCO
TIRT
TKIM
TOTO
TRST
TSPC
ULTJ
UNIC
UNVR
4.9E+11
2.7E+11
2.6E+11
8.7E+10
6.5E+12
-6E+10
3.9E+10
3E+09
-4E+09
-1E+11
2.5E+10
-3E+10
2.6E+12
2.6E+12
2.4E+11
4E+11
3E+11
-4E+10
1E+11
5.3E+10
-2E+11
5.8E+11
6.3E+12
-9E+10
5.1E+12
6.2E+10
2.6E+11
-1E+11
1.5E+11
1.7E+14
-1E+12
3.3E+11
3.8E+11
3.6E+11
1E+11
7.8E+12
1.6E+11
6.3E+10
6.7E+09
5.3E+09
2E+11
3.6E+10
1.3E+11
3.3E+12
3.7E+12
2.9E+11
3.6E+11
3.6E+11
1.2E+10
1.4E+11
1E+11
4.9E+11
1E+12
3.1E+12
5.3E+10
6.5E+12
-5E+11
3.8E+11
-1E+11
1.8E+11
-4E+13
-2E+12
4.68E+11
2.22E+11
3.33E+11
1.32E+11
6.42E+12
1.02E+11
7.87E+10
6.32E+09
4.93E+10
2.72E+11
5.8E+10
7.85E+10
2E+12
1.77E+12
1.4E+11
3.97E+11
2.33E+11
-2.1E+10
8.04E+10
8.89E+10
-1.5E+11
7.01E+11
3.13E+12
2.38E+10
4.93E+12
7.5E+11
2.87E+11
-1E+11
1.28E+11
9.94E+11
-1.7E+12
85
APPENDIC 3
Coefficient Regression
First Equation
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
1
(Constant)
Standardized
Coefficients
B
1.077
Std. Error
0.236
.921
.069
CFOt
Sig.
Correlations
Beta
Zero-order
.803
24.236
.029
23.579
.001
.803
Partial
.203
Part
.103
Tolerance
1.000
VIF
1.000
a Dependent Variable: CFOt+1
Second Equation
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
B
1
Standardized
Coefficients
(Constant)
.920
Std. Error
.083
C_SALES
0.879
.070
C_COGS
0.571
.062
C_OE
0.522
C_INT
0.169
C_TAX
0.141
Sig.
Correlations
Zeroorder
Beta
Partial
Part
Tolerance
VIF
3.958
.000
.142
9.569
.001
.665
.162
.002
.996
1.004
.207
7.263
.033
.703
.232
.034
.978
1.023
.085
.039
7.169
.006
.589
.040
.022
.522
1.914
.020
.418
1.796
.083
.800
.162
.092
.930
1.075
.058
.027
1.523
.072
.714
.018
.010
.947
1.056
86
C_OTHER
0.109
.027
.201
1.235
Third Equation
.061
.770
.155
.088
.494
2.024
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
1
Standardized
Coefficients
B
1.181
Std. Error
.091
CFOt
.744
.066
A_AR
.616
.030
A_AP
.428
A_INV
.325
DEPRE
OTHER
(Constant)
Sig.
Beta
Correlations
Zero-order
Partial
Part
Tolerance
VIF
1.709
.009
.766
9.139
.005
.494
.401
.252
.997
1.003
.000
8.387
.018
.381
.214
.126
.998
1.002
.079
.466
5.298
.000
.405
273
.164
.998
1.002
.165
.495
.593
.000
.630
.375
.234
.996
1.004
.292
.028
.055
.738
.072
.738
.484
.319
.996
1.004
.278
.034
.028
.872
.558
.211
.050
.028
.997
1.003
a Dependent Variable: lgcfot1
Fourth Equation
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
B
1
Standardized
Coefficients
(Constant)
.950
Std. Error
.036
C_SALES
.899
.005
C_COGS
.685
.012
C_OE
.581
C_INT
.216
C_TAX
.251
Sig.
Beta
Correlations
Zero-order
Partial
Part
Tolerance
VIF
19.432
.024
.155
10.689
.000
.666
.193
.099
.996
1.004
.173
8.374
.001
.728
.211
.108
.978
1.023
.006
.237
5.103
.005
.742
.041
.020
.495
2.020
.017
.241
3.060
.000
.759
.265
.138
.929
1.077
.021
.220
3.349
.010
.548
.265
.139
.943
1.061
87
C_OTHER
.178
.030
-.318
2.947
.003
.440
-.261
-.136
.469
2.133
A_AR
.236
.004
.569
1.848
.014
.666
.260
.135
.995
1.005
A_AP
.212
.014
-.435
1.789
.000
.558
-.260
-.135
.987
1.013
A_INV
.194
.011
.111
0.702
.027
.755
.019
.010
.986
1.015
DEPRE
.317
.006
-.062
0.236
.095
.452
-.070
-.035
.968
1.033
OTHER
.115
.035
-.020
0.024
.688
.735
-.015
-.008
.950
1.052
a Dependent Variable: CFOt+1
88
89
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PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS AND FACTORS

THAT INFLUENCE FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS

PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS AND FACTORS

Yuni Nustini, Dra., MAFIS., Ak.

February 4th, 2008

Lulu Sylvianie, S.IP.

February 4th , 2008

PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS AND FACTORS

A BACHELOR DEGREE THESIS

Arief Rahman, SE., M.Com.

Asmai Ishak, Drs., M.Bus., Ph.D

Yogyakarta, February 4, 2008

Andikaputri Kusuma Wardhani

A journey is easier when you travel together. Interdependence is

For my sister Dek Arum (Mangu Cosmos)

TABLE OF CONTENTS . vii

2.4.4 Direct and Indirect Method .. 20

3.4.1 Validity and Relevance of Data 28

3.7.1. Multicollinearity Test ..

3.7.2 The Heteroscedasticity Test .

3.7.3 Normality Testing . 35

3.8.2. Hypothesis Testing .. 42

4.4 Hypothesis Testing . 51

4.4.1.1 Simultaneous Regression Test ( F Test) .................. 51

4.4.1.3 Regression Analysis . 53

4.4.3.1 Simultaneous Regression Test ( F Test) .................

4.4.3.2 Coefficient Determination 57

CHAPTER V: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Table 4.1 : The Election of Research Sample .. 45

PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS AND FACTORS

MEMPREDIKSI ARUS KAS AKTIVITAS OPERASI DAN

1.1. Study Background

International Accounting Standard that deals with cash flow statements

Items under Investing Activities include capital expenditures, which include

direct method of presentation is encouraged, but the indirect method is acceptable

2.2 Theoretical Review

independent variable have better influencing earnings as dependent variable

operations) and non-core (peripheral or incidental activities) cash flow, in

= Aggregate cash flows are incrementally informative beyond accruals

= Cash flows component are incrementally informative beyond accruals

2.4 Theoretical Framework

2.4.2 Statement of cash flows

Sale of certain debt

Sale or productive assets

own equity securities

Payment of income taxes

2.4.3 Cash Flows from Operations

Revenue and payment by the insurance company in connecting with

6. Cash disbursement or cash receipt (restitution) of income tax except if it

Balance Sheet Accounts

Cash flow Statement

Adjust revenues to obtain

Cost of good sold

Adjust cost of good sold

Net cash flows

Expenses (other than COGS) Adjust expenses to obtain cash flows

General Process of the Indirect Approach to Determining Cash Flows

Addition to Net income

Deduction from Net Income

+ Loss on sale investment

- gain on sale of investment

+ Loss related to extraordinary item

- gain related to extraordinary item Net