Analysis and Estimation of the US Oil Production

by Eduardo Petazze
October 5, 2015
In 2015 the US oil production will grow 5.9%. However, the production of new wells drilled will be reduced by 40%.
The final oil recovery (EUR) from each new well drilled is ~ 243,500 barrels, with increasing tendency. Also a growing trend in initial production.
In the first 4-years will be recovered a 64.1% of the EUR in 2015, compared to 62.4% in 2014 and 60.4% in 2013
The aim of this working paper is to present relevant statistical data on the production of oil and condensate in the US and estimate the profile of
production decline.
The statistics were obtained from the US EIA, for the following sources:
WTI: Spot Prices and Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil
Number of Oil Wells: Distribution and Production of Oil and Gas Wells by State
Rigs in Operation: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Activity
Oil Wells drilled: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Exploratory and Development Wells
Crude Oil Production: Crude Oil Production
Production data 2015/2016 are preliminary estimates, while production data 2017/2021, rig count, and number of new wells correspond to our own
forecast (see the document WTI Spot Price).

New production per drilled well and per rig in operation - Expected Ultimate Recoverable per New Well
Analysis and Estimation of the US Oil Production
Year

WTI
Rigs in Oil Wells Wells per
Oil wells
(#)
Operation drilled
Rig

New oil production

per well

$/bbl number number

number number
bpd
bbl
1979 17.03 330,086
2,177
20,851
9.6
73.5
26,834
1980 28.73 350,648
2,909
32,959
11.3
64.1
23,386
1981 38.18 379,263
3,970
43,887
11.1
50.7
18,508
1982 34.42 394,597
3,105
39,459
12.7
43.7
15,951
1983 31.69 400,634
2,232
37,366
16.7
41.4
15,103
1984 31.26 439,207
2,428
42,906
17.7
39.9
14,556
1985 28.76 451,124
1,980
35,261
17.8
39.3
14,340
1986 15.05 448,748
964
19,213
19.9
41.3
15,090
1987 19.20 416,614
936
16,210
17.3
46.8
17,099
1988 15.97 438,935
936
13,646
14.6
52.8
19,272
1989 19.64 436,176
869
10,230
11.8
57.6
21,006
1990 24.53 423,463
1,010
12,445
12.3
63.2
23,066
1991 21.54 428,967
860
12,035
14.0
68.6
25,040
1992 20.58 414,721
721
9,019
12.5
72.8
26,590
1993 18.43 406,136
754
8,764
11.6
77.3
28,222
1994 17.20 394,909
775
7,001
9.0
83.5
30,480
1995 18.43 384,394
723
7,827
10.8
90.2
32,905
1996 22.12 389,120
779
8,760
11.2
92.3
33,699
1997 20.61 390,022
943
10,445
11.1
91.5
33,403
1998 14.42 378,114
827
6,979
8.4
91.5
33,403
1999 19.34 358,710
625
4,314
6.9
97.2
35,468
2000 30.38 359,188
918
8,090
8.8
102.8
37,528
2001 25.98 358,739
1,156
8,888
7.7
98.8
36,078
2002 26.18 354,640
830
6,775
8.2
98.8
36,078
2003 31.08 351,127
1,032
8,129
7.9
99.2
36,216
2004 41.51 350,404
1,192
8,789
7.4
93.4
34,080
2005 56.64 350,778
1,381
10,779
7.8
84.0
30,663
2006 66.05 356,544
1,649
13,385
8.1
74.0
27,002
2007 72.34 358,334
1,768
13,371
7.6
66.9
24,408
2008 99.67 369,128
1,879
16,633
8.9
59.4
21,693
2009 61.95 363,459
1,089
11,190
10.3
61.8
22,547
2010 79.48 359,328
1,546
15,753
10.2
61.8
22,547
2011 94.88 359,066
1,879
18,969
10.1
57.9
21,144
2012 94.05 360,094
1,919
19,683
10.3
60.9
22,212
2013 97.98 359,921
1,761
18,127
10.3
67.3
24,561
2014 93.26 360,374
1,862
19,261
10.3
76.9
28,069
2015 49.65 353,629
995
10,367
10.4
85.8
31,304
2016 48.94 344,393
879
9,199
10.5
94.5
34,477
2017 52.10 336,025
944
9,938
10.5
102.8
37,528
2018 54.37 328,357
949
10,048
10.6
107.8
39,358
2019 55.96 321,217
954
10,158
10.7
110.8
40,441
2020 57.01 314,579
959
10,269
10.7
112.5
41,052
2021 57.69 308,415
964
10,380
10.8
114.4
41,738
Data source: US EIA
Latest (provisional) data EUR = Expected Ultimate Recoverable
WTI price = First domestic refinery purchase price corrected by quality
Own estimate
Forecast (see WTI Spot Price)

per rig
bpd
704.1
725.9
560.5
555.4
692.7
704.7
699.7
824.0
811.3
769.8
677.5
778.7
960.0
911.3
898.7
754.4
976.0
1,038.2
1,013.6
772.3
670.7
906.1
760.0
806.8
781.6
688.4
655.7
600.5
505.7
526.1
634.7
629.4
584.8
624.2
692.5
795.7
893.1
989.1
1,082.8
1,142.1
1,180.2
1,204.7
1,231.7

Avg.
Curde Oil
EUR per new
Production per
Production
well
well
(000) bpd
bpd
bbl
8,551.5
25.9
137,090
8,596.6
24.5
123,571
8,571.6
22.6
115,236
8,648.5
21.9
113,429
8,687.7
21.7
115,374
8,879.0
20.2
119,965
8,971.4
19.9
127,681
8,680.1
19.3
138,272
8,349.0
20.0
149,889
8,139.7
18.5
160,927
7,613.1
17.5
171,566
7,355.3
17.4
181,814
7,416.5
17.3
191,146
7,171.1
17.3
199,942
6,846.7
16.9
208,550
6,661.6
16.9
215,847
6,559.6
17.1
219,890
6,464.5
16.6
221,204
6,451.6
16.5
222,607
6,251.8
16.5
225,526
5,881.5
16.4
227,168
5,821.6
16.2
223,584
5,801.4
16.2
217,478
5,744.1
16.2
210,601
5,649.3
16.1
199,900
5,441.0
15.5
186,432
5,183.8
14.8
174,017
5,086.6
14.3
165,453
5,077.4
14.2
161,421
5,001.1
13.5
162,949
5,354.1
14.7
167,557
5,475.6
15.2
172,636
5,637.3
15.7
182,024
6,475.7
18.0
196,469
7,454.2
20.7
213,038
8,713.3
24.2
229,200
9,224.4
26.1
243,480
8,819.8
25.6
255,456
8,667.4
25.8
264,181
8,538.7
26.0
269,986
8,426.2
26.2
274,335
8,332.1
26.5
278,344
8,332.1
27.0
282,452

PS: the number of rigs in operation and the number of new wells drilled estimates are sensitive to the expectations of drillers future on the evolution
of oil prices, and financing conditions of their investments.

Breakdown of Oil Production by year of wells drilled

Year

Oil wells

Oil Wells
drilled

New Oil Previous

Production
year

Analysis and Estimation of the US Oil Production

Breakdown of Oil Production by year of wells drilled
2-pre
3-pre
4-pre
5-pre
6-pre
7-pre
years
years
years
years
years
years
(000) bpd
1,462.9
915.0
599.8
340.2
183.2
151.9
1,304.6
845.1
545.6
368.2
214.3
118.3
1,122.3
684.3
457.6
304.1
210.7
125.6
1,529.0
641.1
403.5
277.7
189.5
134.5
1,927.7
959.5
415.3
269.1
190.1
132.9
1,670.5
1,231.5
632.8
281.9
187.5
135.7
1,558.3
1,090.8
830.1
439.0
200.8
136.8
1,883.1
1,087.0
785.4
615.2
334.0
156.5
1,753.5
1,414.2
842.7
626.7
504.0
280.3
1,076.9
1,310.0
1,090.6
668.9
510.7
420.7
990.3
778.0
976.9
837.2
527.2
412.3
915.4
720.8
584.5
755.5
664.7
428.7
745.0
658.7
535.4
446.9
593.0
534.4
962.4
524.4
478.6
400.4
343.1
466.3
987.8
677.1
380.8
357.7
307.3
269.7
799.5
707.1
500.3
289.6
279.3
245.7
838.7
572.1
522.3
380.4
226.1
223.3
686.1
569.3
400.9
376.7
281.7
171.5
760.4
450.8
386.1
279.8
270.0
206.8
851.0
504.0
308.4
271.9
202.3
200.0
1,077.4
598.9
366.2
230.7
208.8
159.1
761.7
755.6
433.6
272.8
176.5
163.6
452.7
485.4
497.0
293.6
189.7
125.6
848.9
300.0
332.1
350.0
212.3
140.5
936.1
564.8
206.1
234.8
254.1
157.8
671.5
583.9
363.6
136.6
159.7
177.1
724.9
400.5
359.5
230.4
88.8
106.4
690.2
423.1
241.3
222.9
146.7
57.9
765.2
413.5
261.7
153.6
145.7
98.2
844.5
450.7
251.5
163.8
98.7
95.9
876.8
581.8
320.5
184.1
123.1
76.0
1,090.7
581.2
398.0
225.8
133.1
91.2
688.1
677.9
372.9
262.9
153.1
92.4
1,017.6
479.1
487.3
275.9
199.7
119.1
1,355.0
745.8
362.5
379.5
220.6
163.5
1,606.8
1,026.4
583.2
291.8
313.6
186.7
1,650.3
1,187.7
783.2
458.1
235.3
259.0
1,931.3
1,204.7
895.0
607.5
364.8
191.9
1,131.5
1,393.4
897.2
686.1
478.1
294.0
1,053.0
786.5
999.9
662.7
520.3
371.3
1,168.9
717.1
553.0
723.6
492.4
395.9
1,199.6
786.5
498.1
395.3
531.1
370.1
1,233.1
808.4
547.1
356.6
290.6
399.9
-35.27% -32.33% -29.85% -27.53% -25.31% -23.37%

number number
1979 330,086
20,851
1,532.9
2,341.5
1980 350,648
32,959
2,111.7
2,218.3
1981 379,263
43,887
2,225.3
2,775.0
1982 394,597
39,459
1,724.4
3,184.6
1983 400,634
37,366
1,546.1
2,711.0
1984 439,207
42,906
1,711.1
2,474.4
1985 451,124
35,261
1,385.3
2,799.0
1986 448,748
19,213
794.3
2,420.6
1987 416,614
16,210
759.4
1,494.5
1988 438,935
13,646
720.5
1,421.2
1989 436,176
10,230
588.8
1,304.0
1990 423,463
12,445
786.4
1,073.4
1991 428,967
12,035
825.6
1,417.6
1992 414,721
9,019
657.0
1,455.8
1993 406,136
8,764
677.6
1,157.9
1994 394,909
7,001
584.6
1,215.2
1995 384,394
7,827
705.6
1,048.0
1996 389,120
8,760
808.8
1,199.9
1997 390,022
10,445
955.9
1,331.1
1998 378,114
6,979
638.7
1,587.2
1999 358,710
4,314
419.2
1,126.1
2000 359,188
8,090
831.8
736.5
2001 358,739
8,888
878.5
1,327.8
2002 354,640
6,775
669.7
1,458.8
2003 351,127
8,129
806.6
1,116.2
2004 350,404
8,789
820.6
1,260.3
2005 350,778
10,779
905.5
1,226.0
2006 356,544
13,385
990.2
1,324.0
2007 358,334
13,371
894.1
1,486.2
2008 369,128
16,633
988.5
1,319.5
2009 363,459
11,190
691.2
1,706.1
2010 359,328
15,753
973.1
1,147.8
2011 359,066
18,969
1,098.8
1,515.2
2012 360,094
19,683
1,197.8
1,916.7
2013 359,921
18,127
1,219.8
2,199.2
2014 360,374
19,261
1,481.3
2,314.7
2015 353,629
10,367
889.1
2,743.0
2016 344,393
9,199
868.9
1,625.9
2017 336,025
9,938
1,021.8
1,570.5
2018 328,357
10,048
1,083.5
1,779.4
2019 321,217
10,158
1,125.5
1,848.6
2020 314,579
10,269
1,154.9
1,897.0
2021 308,415
10,380
1,187.0
1,949.8
L-T new production change, YoY
65.81%
Data source: US EIA
Latest (provisional) data EUR = Expected Ultimate Recoverable
WTI price = First domestic refinery purchase price corrected by quality
Own estimate
Forecast (see WTI Spot Price)

8-pre
years
119.7
100.2
70.8
82.0
96.4
96.9
101.2
109.0
134.2
239.1
347.1
342.7
352.2
429.5
374.6
220.5
200.8
173.1
128.6
156.5
160.7
127.4
119.0
95.1
106.7
112.4
120.6
70.9
39.6
66.1
75.4
57.5
64.7
73.5
99.7
141.4
157.6
215.9
158.1
233.4
288.8
304.2
284.8
-21.66%

Curde Oil
Legacy Production
production
(000) bpd
904.5 8,551.5
770.4 8,596.6
595.8 8,571.6
482.3 8,648.5
439.6 8,687.7
456.6 8,879.0
430.1 8,971.4
495.1 8,680.1
539.4 8,349.0
681.1 8,139.7
851.3 7,613.1
1,083.2 7,355.3
1,307.8 7,416.5
1,453.7 7,171.1
1,656.1 6,846.7
1,819.6 6,661.6
1,842.3 6,559.6
1,796.6 6,464.5
1,682.1 6,451.6
1,531.9 6,251.8
1,534.4 5,881.5
1,562.1 5,821.6
1,432.1 5,801.4
1,336.8 5,744.1
1,266.2 5,649.3
1,155.2 5,441.0
1,021.2 5,183.8
919.2 5,086.6
819.4 5,077.4
721.9 5,001.1
719.1 5,354.1
777.3 5,475.6
711.2 5,637.3
709.1 6,475.7
708.7 7,454.2
767.5 8,713.3
861.2 9,224.4
913.8 8,819.8
1,036.7 8,667.4
1,048.7 8,538.7
1,112.5 8,426.2
1,195.2 8,332.1
1,274.7 8,332.1

PS.: The new oil production by workovers, refracs, secondary recovery, etc., is computed as lower rates of decline from old wells.