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Investment drivers
Offshore oil & gas exploration moving to deep water High oil & gas prices makes
offshore development more cost effective. Average long-term oil price assumption by
E&P companies around US$55-65/bbl, lower than current levels.
E&P capex expected to grow substantially Expect deep water E&P capex of
US$20bn from 2006-2010. Although most of this would be for rigs, higher specification
supply vessels would also be required.
Favorable supply side dynamics Fleet is old for total offshore supply fleet. 45% of the
fleet is over 25 years old.
Vessel Types
Vessel Types
Helipad
Diving support equipment
Large Cranes
Vessel Types
Vessel Types
Vessel Types
Vessel Types
100,000
80,533
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2006
2007
27,225
2008
Ju
l
A
ug
Se
p
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Ju
n
2005
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
2005
Ju
l
A
ug
Se
p
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
120,000
Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Ju
n
/Day
2006
2007
2008
10
11
Dynamic Positioning - System that enables a vessel to stay in position without the use of cables, mooring,
anchoring, or arms. There are three classes (DP, DP2, DP3), based on levels of failsafe.
BHP Brake Horse Power, measure of power for AHTS vessels
BP Bollard Pull, indicator of a tugs power to pull or push
Fi-Fi Fire Fighting Equipment
Asset prices vary quite significantly according to cost, type, and age, ranging from <US$10mn to close
to US$600mn.
Demand Environment
Demand Drivers
13
Approximately 25% of US oil & natural gas production comes from offshore areas, and
likely to increase. Internationally, the North Sea in Europe, and oil fields in SE Asia, are
key areas of offshore development.
There is a trend towards more offshore development, especially in deep waters. Infield
systems forecasts deepwater capex to exceed US$20bn from 2006-2010.
Daily offshore oil & gas production, currently standing at around 43 million barrels of oil
equivalent (boe), is forecast to grow to 53 million boe in 2010 and drive industry annual
expenditure from $193 billion in 2006 to $248 billion by 2010, according to Energy
Business Reports.
Commodity Prices
mbpd
120
88
100
86
USD/barrel
84
82
80
78
76
80
60
40
20
74
70
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
OPEC Supply
14
OPEC Demand
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 YTD
72
Y-o-Y% growth
90
0.12
80
0.09
8.21%
70
0.06
3.58%
60
1.92%
50
0.03
40
0
0.51%
30
20
-4.76%
10
-4.70%
-0.06
-0.09
1965
1970
1975
1980
15
-0.03
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Y-o-Y % growth
World oil supply is slowing, with the incremental growth coming from offshore areas.
16
USD/barrel
2008 YTD
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
60
2000
20
1999
65
1998
40
1997
70
1996
60
1995
75
1994
80
1993
80
1992
100
120
85
1991
Million barrels/day
90
World Oil Demand has been growing steadily, despite the increase in crude oil prices.
# of Rigs
1900
1877
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
US Rig Count
1600
1550
14-Jul06
17
14-Oct06
14-Jan- 14-Apr07
07
14-Jul07
US offshore rig fleet is growing, this will increase demand for AHTS, PSV, and other
support vessels to operate in the US Gulf as well. We see a similar trend here in Asia,
with more offshore developments, and required # of support vessels.
19
OB as a
% of Fle e t
30%
40%
7%
6%
55%
13%
7%
14%
12%
0%
4%
5%
25%
36%
12%
89%
23%
4707
4000
3000
2141
2000
993
1000
0
Existing
Orderbook
>25
All All_Offshore_Supply
Fleet Growth
Historical Fleet Growth -AHT/Supply (# of Ships)
Fleet
6.0%
% Growth
1800
2.0%
500
2000
2002
2004
2006
4.0%
800
3.0%
600
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1996
2008
20
1998
1000
200
0.0%
1996
5.0%
1200
400
1.0%
# of Ships
1000
% Growth
# of Ships
3.0%
6.0%
1400
4.0%
1500
7.0%
% Grow th
1600
5.0%
2000
Fle e t
% Growth
2500
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Fleet
6.0%
% Growth
1800
450
250
3.0%
200
2.0%
150
100
1000
2.0%
800
1.5%
600
1.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
21
1998
0.5%
200
0.0%
1996
1.0%
400
50
0
2.5%
1200
# of Ships
4.0%
300
3.0%
1400
% Growth
# of Ships
350
3.5%
% Growth
1600
5.0%
400
Fleet
% Growth
500
0.0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2141
2000
3.0
2.2
1500
1000
1.5
865
675
500
621
174
1.0
1.0
197
0.4
34
0.3
0.1
0.0
1-5
<1
>25
6-10
1-5
<1
All All_Offshore_Supply
Over 45% of the fleet is over 25 years of age, or 2.2 million dwt. This would require
additional growth in fleet for replacement, as well as to fulfill growth from new demand.
As exploration moves to deeper waters, we see greater demand for larger, more
complex, more powerful support vessels.
22
2.0
2.0
This is measures in terms of brake horse power (BHP) of the engines, winches, etc.
Also requirements for multi-functional equipment, such as fire fighting, diving support, etc.
Fleet
OB as a % of Fleet
15.0%
1000
10.0%
500
5.0%
0.0%
1996
23
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Fleet
18.0%
OB as a % of Fleet
1600
16.0%
1400
14.0%
1200
12.0%
1000
10.0%
800
8.0%
600
6.0%
400
4.0%
200
2.0%
2008
# of Ships
# of Ships
20.0%
1500
OB as a % of Fleet
25.0%
2000
1800
0.0%
1996
OB as a % of Fleet
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Fleet
6.0%
OB as a % of Fleet
1800
450
300
250
3.0%
200
2.0%
150
100
1.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
800
6.0%
600
4.0%
2.0%
2008
24
1998
8.0%
200
0.0%
1996
1000
400
50
0
10.0%
1200
# of Ships
4.0%
12.0%
1400
OB as a % of Fleet
# of Ships
350
14.0%
OB as a % of Fleet
1600
5.0%
400
Fleet
OB as a % of Fleet
500
0.0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
25
5713
964
2697
47.2%
16.9%
6.7
2.5
1.9
27.9%
36.7%
Top Players
Top 50 owners as a % of Total
Top 50 Others Total
614
1581
AHTS
967
64
502
PSV
438
512
1082
Supply
570
233
528
AHT
295
33
142
MSV
109
75
330
Standby/Resc.
255
40
188
Crew Boat
148
51
210
Seis. Survey
159
Top 50
% of Fleet
61%
87%
53%
56%
77%
77%
79%
76%
Average
Age
17
8
21
20
15
27
23
25
AHTS
Ships
PSV
Ships
Supply
Ships
STANDBY
Ships
CREW BOAT
Ships
Tidewater Marine
179
Edison Chouest
49
Tidewater Marine
150
Vroon B.V.
42
Tidewater Marine
15
Swire Group
52
Tidewater Marine
44
Trico Marine
38
Seacor Holdings Inc. 29
Miclyn Express Off.
9
Seacor Holdings Inc. 51
Bourbon
31
Seacor Holdings Inc.
35
Craig Group
27
Norsul Offshore
9
CNOOC
50
GulfMark Offshore
28
Hornbeck Offshore
29
A.P. Moller
19
Arabian Gulf Mech.
7
A.P. Moller
47
Farstad Shipping
23
Abdon Callais
24
Nomis Shipping Ltd.
13
Seacor Holdings Inc.
6
Bourbon
34
Hornbeck Offshore
19
Edison Chouest
21
Mokster Shipping
10
Kaspmornefteflot
5
Indian Govt.
31
Rigdon Marine
17
Zamil Operations
13
Al-Mojil Group
9
Lamnalco Ltd.
5
Farstad Shipping
26
DOF Management
16
ESNAAD
11 Emas Laut Sdn. Bhd.
8
Apsheron Oil Fleet
4
Kaspmornefteflot
23
Seacor Holdings Inc. 14
Aries Marine Corp.
10
CNOOC
8
Modest Maritime Serv
4
Whitesea Shpg.
22
Marine Management 12 L & M Bo-Truc Rental
9
Ocean Mainport
7
Baruna Raya Logistic
4
Maridive & Oil Serv
22
Trico Marine
11
Bumi Armada Nav.
9
Halul Offshore
6
Syarikat Borcos Shpg
4
GulfMark Offshore
21
Siem Offshore
10
NIOC
9
Thor Ltd.
5
A.A. Turki Corp
4
Edison Chouest
18
A.P. Moller
8
Odyssea Marine
9
Ajang Shipping
5
Bourbon
3
Zamil Operations
18 Island Offshore Mngt
8
TMM Grupo
8
ENI S.p.A.
4
Bambini Srl
3
Pertamina
16
Havila Shipping
8
Baruna Raya Logistic
8
Topaz Energy
4
Offshore Oil Serv.
3
26