Phys 140 A

HW 01

1. [Reif, Problem 1.5] In the game of Russian roulette (not recommended by the instructor), one
inserts a single cartridge into the drum of a revolver, leaving the other five chambers of the
drum empty. One then spins the drum, aims at one's head, and pulls the trigger.
a) What is the probability of being still alive after playing the game N times?
b) What is the probability of surviving (N 1) turns in this game and then being shot the
Nth time one pulls the trigger?
c) What is the mean number of times a player gets the opportunity of pulling the trigger in
this macabre game?
2. Your instructor has been doing physics for years but has not got the Nobel Prize yet.
Estimate the probability he will get it next year based on the following considerations:
a) If the probability distribution function (PDF) () of a random variable is known, then
the best estimate of is the average, = () .
b) If () is unknown, it can be approximated using the Bayesian updating. One starts with
a reasonable initial guess 0 () . Next, one looks at the available data and recalculates
the PDF according to the formula () = 1 0 ()(|) , where (|) is the
conditional probability of computed assuming the initial PDF. The constant ensures
normalization, = 0 ()(|) .
c) Lets say if you have absolutely no idea how hard it is to get the Nobel Prize or how good
your instructor is. Therefore, your initial guess is 0 () = 1 for 0 1.
d) The data consists of independent trials, each one ending in failure. Accordingly, the
conditional probability (|) you need is a particular case of the binomial statistics.
(If you think this problem is fun, check out another amusing application of the Bayes
formula, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem )
3. A molecule is confined to move along a straight line. It moves equal distances between
collisions, changing direction completely randomly each time. Use binomial distribution and/or
symmetry considerations to find the following quantities after a total of such displacements:
a) the mean displacement from the starting point
b) the mean square of the displacement 2
c) the mean cube of the displacement 3
4. [Reif, Problems 1.9-1.11] The exact probability that an event characterized by a
probability occurs times in trials is given by the binomial distribution
!
=
(1 ) .
! ( )!
Consider a situation where the probability 1 is small and where one is interested in the
case . Follow the Landau-Lifshitz book, sec.114, or the lecture notes to show that the

binomial distribution can then be approximated by the Poisson distribution

= , = .
!
a) Show that the Poisson distribution becomes properly normalized if the range of allowed
is extended to infinity,
=0 = 1.
b) Use the Poisson distribution to compute , the average value of .
c) Use the Poisson distribution to calculate the variance 2 = ( )2 .
d) Use the Poisson distribution to answer the following question. Assume that
typographical errors occur randomly, one per page on average. What are the
probabilities that the page No. 140 of a 600-page book contains (i) no errors (ii) that a
page contains at least three errors, i.e., that 3.
5. Use the Stirlings formula ! 2 and the Taylor expansion of ln to show that
the Poisson distribution can be approximated by the Gaussian distribution
( )2
1
| | .

exp {
},
2
2
Compare the predictions of the exact binomial formula for the probability of getting 215 heads
from 400 coin tosses with those based on approximations based on (i) Poisson and (ii) Gaussian
distributions.
6. Draw the phase space (, ) and indicate the classically accessible regions in the following
examples:
a) A particle of mass that moves in one dimension on an interval 0 < < . Assume
that the energy of the particle lies between 1 and 2 .
b) Two particles, each of mass , confined to the same one-dimensional interval 0 <
1 , 2 < . Assume that the total energy of the system is between 1 and 2 and that
the particles do interact but extremely weakly (so that they can exchange the energy
but their potential energy is negligibly small compared to the kinetic one). Since it is
difficult to draw a four-dimensional phase space, draw separately the part of the phase
space involving the coordinates 1 and 2 and that involving the momenta 1 and 2 .
7. In the lecture notes we discussed the change from Cartesian to polar coordinates. Derive
explicitly the Jacobian matrices and determinants that arise in the two cases mentioned:
a) Two dimensions, = (, )/(, ).
b) Three dimensions, = (, , )/(, , ).