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A Decision-Making Approach
8th Edition
Chapter 5
Discrete Probability Distributions
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Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
Calculate and interpret the expected value of a discrete
probability distribution
Apply the binomial distribution to business problems
Compute probabilities for the Poisson and
hypergeometric distributions
Recognize when to apply discrete probability
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Contoh :
Inspektor memeriksa 3 TV plasma dan menentukan diterima atau
tidak diterima.
Outcome/hasil dari eksperimen yang mungkin adalah :
x = {0, 1, 2, 3} random variable
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Random
Variables
Ch. 5
Discrete
Random Variable
Continuous
Random Variable
Ch. 6
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Contoh :
Kuis Statistik Industri 1 berupa soal pilihan ganda. Apabila x
merepresentasikan jumlah pertanyaan yang dijawab dengan
benar. Maka x adalah discrete random variable. Nilai yang
mungkin untuk x adalah :
x = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Asuransi Prudential melakukan survey pada konsumennya untuk
menentukan jumlah anak berusia di bawah 22 tahun yang tinggal
di rumah.
Maka random variable adalah x yaitu jumlah anak yang tinggal di
rumah.
x = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, ...} discrete random variable
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
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5-7
Examples:
Roll a die twice
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H
H
T
H
x Value Probability
0
1/4 = 0.25
2/4 = 0.50
1/4 = 0.25
T
H
Probability
Probability Distribution
0.5
0
0.2
5
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S P(xi) = 1
The sum of all probabilities in the sample space = 1
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21 possible outcomes
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Where :
E(x) = Expected value of x
x = values of the random variable
P(x) = probability of the randim variable taking on the
value x
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5-12
x = # of heads,
compute expected value of x:
x
P(x)
0.25
0.50
0.25
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2 [X i E(X)] 2 P(Xi )
Standard Deviation of a discrete distribution
{x
E(x)} P(xi )
2
where:
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{x
E(x)} P(xi )
2
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Contoh
Karena cuaca buruk, jumlah hari pada minggu depan untuk
P(x) 0,05
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
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Expected value :
x
P(x)
0,05
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,15
0,15
0,05
Sum
x.P(x)
0,1
0,2
0,6
0,8
0,75
0,9
0,35
3,7
Standar deviasi :
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Probability Distributions
Ch. 5
Ch. 6
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Binomial*
Poisson*
Normal
Hypergeometric*
Uniform
Binomial Negative
Exponential
Multinomial
Geometric
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acceptable
A firm bidding for a contract will either get the contract
or not
A marketing research firm receives survey responses of
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n!
C
x! (n x )!
n
x
where:
Cxn = number of combinations of x objects selected from n objects
n! =n(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
Order does not matter
x! = x(x - 1)(x - 2) . . . (2)(1)
NOTE: 0! = 1 (by definition)
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Contoh
Dilakukan pemeriksaan terhadap 4 kelompok sepatu untuk
4!
4 x3x2 x1
C
1
0!(4 0)! 1(4 x3x2 x1)
4
0
x=1
4!
4 x3x2 x1
4
C1
4
1!(4 1)! 1(3x2 x1)
G, G, G, G
G, G, G, D
G, G, D, G
G, D, G, G
D, G, G, G
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x=2
4!
4 x3x2 x1
4
C2
6
2!(4 2)! 2 x1(2 x1)
x=3
4!
4 x3x2 x1
C
4
3!(4 3)! 3x2 x1(1)
4
3
x=4
G, G, D, D
G, D, G, D
G, D, D, G
D, G, D, G
D, D, G, G
D, G, G, D
G, D, D, D
D, G, D, D
D, D, G, D
D, D, D, G
4!
4 x3x2 x1
C
1
4!(4 4)! 4 x3x2 x1(1)
4
4
D, D, D, D
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n!
P( x)
p x q n x
x!(n x)!
4!
P(2)
(0,12 )(0,9 2 ) 0,0486
2!2!
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Distribution
x = # of
defects
P(x)
0,6561
0,2916
0,0486
0,0036
0,0001
Total
1,0000
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Tabel Binomial
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Example:
Calculating a Binomial Probability
What is the probability of one success in five
observations if the probability of success is .1?
x = 1, n = 5, and p = 0.1
n!
P(x 1)
p x (1 p)n x
x!(n x)!
5!
(0.1)1 (1 0.1) 51
1!(5 1)!
(5)(0.1)(0 .9) 4
0.32805
Business Statistics, A First Course (4e) 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
5-28
Binomial Distribution
Summary Measures
Mean
E(x) np
npq
2
npq
Where n = sample size
p = probability of success
q = (1 p) = probability of failure
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
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Binomial Distribution
The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the
values of p and n
Mean
.6
.4
.2
0
P(X)
.6
.4
.2
0
n = 5 p = 0.1
P(X)
n = 5 p = 0.5
X
5
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Binomial Characteristics
Examples
np (5)(0.1) 0.5
Mean
npq (5)(0.1)(1 .1)
0.6708
np (5)(0.5) 2.5
npq (5)(0.5)(1 0.5)
1.118
.6
.4
.2
0
P(X)
.6
.4
.2
0
n = 5 p = 0.1
P(X)
n = 5 p = 0.5
X
5
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n!
10!
x n x
P(x 3)
pq
(0.35) 3 (0.65) 7 0.2522
x!(n x)!
3!7!
There is a 25.22% chance that exactly 3 out of the 10
voters will support Proposition A
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
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p=.15
p=.20
p=.25
p=.30
p=.35
p=.40
p=.45
p=.50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.1969
0.5443
0.8202
0.9500
0.9901
0.9986
0.9999
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.1074
0.3758
0.6778
0.8791
0.9672
0.9936
0.9991
0.9999
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.0563
0.2440
0.5256
0.7759
0.9219
0.9803
0.9965
0.9996
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.0282
0.1493
0.3828
0.6496
0.8497
0.9527
0.9894
0.9984
0.9999
1.0000
1.0000
0.0135
0.0860
0.2616
0.5138
0.7515
0.9051
0.9740
0.9952
0.9995
1.0000
1.0000
0.0060
0.0464
0.1673
0.3823
0.6331
0.8338
0.9452
0.9877
0.9983
0.9999
1.0000
0.0025
0.0233
0.0996
0.2660
0.5044
0.7384
0.8980
0.9726
0.9955
0.9997
1.0000
0.0010
0.0107
0.0547
0.1719
0.3770
0.6230
0.8281
0.9453
0.9893
0.9990
1.0000
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Contoh
Manager PT Coca Cola Amatil mengirimkan 300 email kepada
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Using EXCEL
1. Buka sheet kosong
2. Pilih Formulas
3. Klik pada fx (Function
4.
5.
6.
7.
wizard)
Pilih Statistical Category
Pilih BINOMDIST
function
Lengkapi informasi yang
diminta
True mengindikasikan
probabilitas kumulatif
P(x43) = 0,97
P(x44) = 1 0,97 = 0,03
Hanya 3% peluang dari
44 atau lebih konsumen
yang membalas email
dari peluang 11%.
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Contoh :
Mendeskripsikan suatu situasi :
Jumlah pasien yang datang pada unit IGD per jam.
Jumlah panggilan pada customer service Telkom setiap
30 menit.
Mendeskripsikan random variable :
Jumlah dot pada setuap lembar kertas.
Jumlah kontaminan dalam segalon air
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Poisson Distribution
Summary Measures
Mean
E(x) x t
t
2
t
where = number of successes in a segment of unit size
t = the size of the segment of interest
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
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Graphically:
0.60
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.6065
0.3033
0.0758
0.0126
0.0016
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
P(x)
t =
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0
P(x = 2) = 0.0758
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parameters and t:
t = 0.50
t = 3.0
0.70
0.25
0.60
0.20
0.40
P(x)
P(x)
0.50
0.30
0.15
0.10
0.20
0.05
0.10
0.00
0.00
0
10
11
12
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(t ) e
P( x)
x!
x
where:
t = size of the segment of interest
x = number of successes in segment of interest
= expected number of successes in a segment of unit
size
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)
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0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0.9048
0.0905
0.0045
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.8187
0.1637
0.0164
0.0011
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.7408
0.2222
0.0333
0.0033
0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.6703
0.2681
0.0536
0.0072
0.0007
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.6065
0.3033
0.0758
0.0126
0.0016
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.5488
0.3293
0.0988
0.0198
0.0030
0.0004
0.0000
0.0000
0.4966
0.3476
0.1217
0.0284
0.0050
0.0007
0.0001
0.0000
0.4493
0.3595
0.1438
0.0383
0.0077
0.0012
0.0002
0.0000
0.4066
0.3659
0.1647
0.0494
0.0111
0.0020
0.0003
0.0000
(t ) x e t (0.50) 2 e 0.50
P( x 2)
0.0758
x!
2!
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
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Contoh
Figur kedatangn dari konsumen Mc. D disajikan dlam
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P(x3) = 0,9212
Sehingga P(4 atau lebih konsumen) = 1 0,9212 = 0,0788
Manager bermaksud memenuhi target agar konsumen yang
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satu kasir.
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
5-45
size N
Sample taken without replacement
Trials are dependent
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P( x)
NX .
n x
N
n
X
x
Where
N = population size
X = number of successes in the population
n = sample size
x = number of successes in the sample
n x = number of failures in the sample
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
5-47
P(x 2)
NX
n x
N
n
n=3
x=2
X
x
6
1
4
2
C C
(6)(6)
0.3
10
C3
120
5-48
Contoh
Pada produksi Nokia bulan Juli didapatkan 20 produk dicurigai
20
C nN
C10
(43,758)(1 )
P(x 0)
0.2368
184,756
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5-49
mungkin :
x
P(x)
0,2368
0,5264
0,2368
Total
1,0000
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X
i 1
k
x
i 1
N
n
X1
x1
X2
x2
N
n
...C
XK
xk
N = Population size
n = Total sample size
Xi = Number of items in the
population with outcome i
xi = Number of items in the sample
with outcome i
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Contoh
Studi terhadapt pasar sepeda motor dengan 4 merek
5 brand Honda
4 brand Suzuki
6 brand Yamaha
4 brand Kawasaki
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N = 19 dan n = 6
Tentukan event of interest :
P(x1 = 0, x2 = 3, x3 = 1, x4 =2) = .....
Tentukan jumlah tiap kategori tiap populasi dan sample
:
Honda
Suzuki
Yamaha
Kawasaki
Total
X1 = 5
X2= 4
X3 = 6
X4 = 4
N = 19
x1 = 0
X2 = 3
x3 = 1
x4 = 2
n=6
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Hitung probabilitas
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Chapter Summary
Reviewed key discrete distributions
Binomial
Poisson
Hypergeometric
Found probabilities using formulas and tables
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