Chapter 9

Perspectives
9.1
Price evolution
9.2
Capacity
9.3
Legislation initiatives
9.4
Demand estimation
9.5
Conclusions
References

203
204
204
206
207
208

Chapter 9

Perspectives
Recently, the main obstacles for developing compostable polymer materials have been reported
as price, performance, manufacturing process (scale-up) and legislative issues. Below are some
developments in these areas.

9.1. PRICE EVOLUTION

The price evolution of compostable polymer materials over the past l0 years are presented in
Table 9.1.
In 1998 the prices of compostable polymers were high. Therefore, it was often stated that

Table 9.1. Evolution of price of compostable polymer materials [ 1-5]

Polymer

PHB

Manufacturer

1998 price,
USD/kg

2002 price

Expected

15

20 EUR/kg

2.4 EUR/kg
2-3 EUR/kg
3.8-4 USD/kg
1-2 EUR/kg
2.5-3 EUR/kg
3.5-4.5 USD/kg
1.5-1.8 EUR/kg

PHA

10-20 EUR/kg

PLA

>20

PCL
Bionolle (aliphatic
polyesters based on
succinic acid)
BAK 1095 (aliphatic
polyesteramides)
Ecoflex
(aliphatic-aromatic
polyesters)
Mater-Bi (blends
of starch
TPS

6
8-10

2.2-3.4 EUR/kg
(2.2 EUR/kg,
2004)
3.5

5
5

3.1 EUR(2004)

3-7

2.5-3 EUR/kg

1 EUR/kg
0.2-0.5 EUR/kg

Petrochemical polymers

PET
PE

<1 USD
203

1-1.5 EUR/kg (2004)

0.8 EUR/kg (2004)

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Compostable PolymerMaterials

"Compared to the prize of commodity plastics as LDPE and PS (prices ca. 1 USD/kg)
the differences are too large. Reducing their cost prizes will therefore be the major challenge in the further development of these materials. Estimates have forecasted that up
scaling and new production techniques can lower prices to about 7-8 USD/kg for PHB
and to about 12-17 USD/kg for PLA before the year 2000. According to Cargill, the
manufacturer of PLA, the prize can be brought to 5 USD/kg [ 1]."
In the biodegradable plastics market, aliphatic polyesters (in the main PLA, the present
main competitor of starch thermoplastics) sell for s 1.5-2.5 per kilo. Starch itself is very cheap
(s
per kilo), but starch-based biopolymers such as Mater-Bi (from Novamont) are more
expensive (s
per kilo) [6].
Annual production of 5000 tonnes of P(3HB-co-5 mol% 3HHX) was estimated to cost from
3.5 to 4.5 USD/kg, depending on presumed production performances [4]. Similar scale production of P(3 HB) from glucose was estimated to cost 3.8-4.2 USD/kg.
If it is possible to produce polyhydroxyalkanoates at a cost of 1-2 EUR per kg, a diverse
range of potential applications become commercially very attractive. According to some industry specialists, this price range is already feasible with current, large-scale and fully integrated
bioreactors and downstream processing technology [5].
A price decline of biodegradable plastics is expected due to wide use and increase of
the amount of production from 3.6 EUR/kg at 10000 tonne scale production to 1.1 EUR/kg at
15 000 000 tonnes [7].
In general, the price difference between compostable polymers and standard plastic has
decreased in last decade. It concerns, especially polymers based on renewable resources, e.g.
polylactic acid.

9.2. CAPACITY
Manufacturing capacities for compostable polymers increase systematically. In 1990 global
capacity for compostable polymer materials was 450 tonnes, in 2000 it increased to 44000 and
in 2003 reached above 259000 tonnes [8]. An estimation of existing and planned global capacity of compostable polymer materials production is given in Table 9.2. It is noteworthy that
many companies declare the increase in the production capacity, e.g. Cargill Dow.
The world market for biodegradable materials is developing very dynamically. With this significant increase in capacity, the chemical companies, for example BASE would like to participate in this market growth. Due to the recently passed amendment to the German packaging
ordinance, BASF expects activity in the domestic market to pick up. Strong growth in interest in compostable polymers, especially based on renewable resources in general, is observed.
Progress in material development takes place, e.g. expanding the range of bioplastics (e.g.
Ecovio (BASF)), or new manufacturing capacities (e.g. 20 000 tonnes biorefinery, Novamont).

9.3. LEGISLATION INITIATIVES

Recently, different legislative measures have been taken in various countries in the world, in
order to support sustainable development.

205

Perspectives
Table

9.2. Estimation of existing and planned capacity (main leaders)

Compostable polymer
materials

Capacity,
tonne/year
2003

Capacity planned,
tonne/year

Cargill Dow
Hycail

140000

500 000 (in 2010)

50000-100000

Metabolix

11000

50 000 (ADM/Metabolix
joint venture in 2008)*

Joint agreement
Procter & Gamble
and Kaneka

2500

50000

Novamont
Rodenburg
National Starch
Cereplast
BIOP

35 000
40000
20000

Company

Based on renewable raw materials

PLA
Nature Works
Polyhydroxyalkanoates
Biopol

Nodax

Starch based
Mater-Bi
Solanyl
Ecofoam
Cereplast
Biopar

Approx. 20 000
10000

Based on petroleum feedstock

BAK
Ecoflex
EASTAR BIO
PCL
PVAXX
Total

Bayer
BASF
Eastman
Union Carbide
PVAXX

4000
7000-8000**
14 000
>5000
14 000
293 500

36 000 (14 000)

91000
Approx. 850 000

* In 2007 Metabolix and ADM (global company of agricultural processing) announced that they will jointly produce Mirel TM through
their joint venture TellusTM. First commercial plant in Iowa (USA) is expected to start up in 2008 and will produce Mirel at an annual
rate of 110 million pounds.
** BASF started up a new plant in 2006 for the production of its biodegradable plastic Ecoflex| at its Schwarzheide site in Germany,
thus almost doubling its capacity for this product. The new plant will have a total capacity of 6000 metric tonnes a year, and
complements the 8000 metric tonne plant in Ludwigshafen. BASF also produces a blended polymer called Ecovio, a plastic made from
45% Nature Works PLA and 55% Ecoflex.

In some of theses countries taxes on shopping bags have been introduced [9]. In March
2002, the Republic of Ireland, for example, became the first country to introduce a plastic bag
tax, or PlasTax. Since 2003 a law in Taiwan requires restaurants, supermarkets and convenience stores to charge customers for plastic bags and utensils.
The German Parliament (the Bundestag) and the Assembly of the German States (the Bundesrat)
have approved a regulation in the German Packaging Ordinance granting far-reaching privileges
to certified compostable packaging, and thus enabling a collection system to be implemented
in parallel with the increasing amounts being used. Market experts expect an almost immediate and fast-growing market for compostable packaging in Germany. All the large retail chains
have prepared for the introduction of compostable packaging - ALDI's carrot bag test in late
2004 in southern Germany is only one example [ 10].

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Compostable PolymerMaterials

Following the amendment to the German Packaging Ordinance, all certified packaging
(packaging that is biodegradable according to DIN EN 13432) will be exempt until 2012 from
the DSD recycling fee ( D S D - Duales System Deutschland), irrespective of the raw material basis. The amended German Packaging Ordinance makes special provision for certified
biopackaging, i.e. packaging proven to be compostable: for a limited period during the market launch, such products need not be accepted as returns, nor are they subject to recycling
quotas.
In California the two new state environmental laws are expected to provide opportunity
for bio-based plastics. Assembly Bill 2147, the "truth in labeling" law, and Assembly Bill 32,
the Global Warming Solutions Act, are expected to encourage the use of biodegradable and
compostable plastics [ 11]. To provide consumers with accurate, useful information, the "truth
in labeling" law mandates that environmental marketing claims for compostable plastic food or
beverage containers must follow rigorous, uniform and recognized standards. Plastic containers
bearing the terms "biodegradable", "compostable" and "degradable" must meet current standard specifications established by the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM).
Moreover, the Federal BioBased Products Preferred Procurement Program provided that
Federal Agencies in the USA must give purchasing preference to bio-based products designated by this programme [9]. The authority for this programme is included in the Farm and
Rural Investment Act (FSRIA) of 2002. To be designated for preferred procurement, items
of single use bioplastic must meet appropriate ASTM standards for biodegradability. Some
examples are cutlery, rubbish bags or food containers.
During the 2005 World Exposition in Aichi (Japan) more than 20 million biomass-derived
biodegradable plastic items were used [12].

9.4. D E M A N D ESTIMATION

In 1998, the demand for biodegradable polymers was estimated at about 70000 tonnes in
2001 [ 13], and another forecast gave a much higher value, i.e. 200000 tonnes [ 14]. As can be
seen from Table 9.2 the forecast was quite reasonable.
Under the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) estimates were made for the production of bio-based polymers (and other bio-based materials) until 2010. According to these
estimates bio-based polymers are expected to grow in the European Union from 25 kt in 1998
to 500 kt in 2010 without supportive policies and measures (P&Ms) and to 1000 kt with P&Ms
[2]. Novamont expects that half or more than half of all bio-based produced in 2010 will be
starch polymers, i.e. 250 to 500 kt.
The International Biodegradable Polymers Association and Working Groups (IBAW, Berlin)
follows this view and projects a further growth of bio-based polymers in the EU to 2-4 million
tonnes until 2020. Half of this total is expected to consist of compostable products while the
other half would be durables.
The Japanese Biodegradable Plastics Society (BPS) has prepared projections for the market
of biodegradable polymers in Japan. By 2010, the total consumption is estimated at 200 kt of
which 187 are expected to be bio-based.
Bioplastics are beginning to enter automotive, computer and consumer electronic markets.
The leading companies, e.g. DuPont and British Petroleum, have recognized the importance of
sustainable development and have been incorporating it as a key strategic element in operating

Perspectives

207

their companies [15]. DuPont and others are working hard to create demonstrably more sustainable products, take them to market, and communicate both their value to the consumer and their
sustainable advantages. DuPont intends that by 2010 the company will make 25% of its products
using renewable materials [ 16].
The biodegradable polymer market in the US has witnessed a series of consolidations
over the past ten years [17]. The early industry participants were unsuccessful due to costly
manufacturing technologies and absence of enough legislation to fuel the market. The situation, however, has recently changed, with the boost for biodegradable polymers being observed
in the US market. In 2003 there were more than seven players in the US biodegradable polymer market. The US biodegradable polymer market revenues were estimated at 27.0 million USD, corresponding to 22.9 million pounds of unit shipment [ 17]. According to Frost &
Sullivan- the business research & consulting f i r m - the US biodegradable polymer market
revenue is forecast to grow to 67.8 million USD in 2010 at a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 12.2%. The emerging issues of landfills and composting and the growing awareness of environmentally friendly products encourage interest in the use of compostable polymers. Apart from the traditional products such as compost bags, agricultural mulch films, leaf
and lawn waste bags many industrial participants have been innovating end user applications
for the new age market, including automotive plastics, compact discs, fibres, drug delivery
systems, medical devices, cellular phones, computer parts, tyre fillers, cameras, and food
and beverage containers. An example of new high-tech applications of compostable polymer
materials is a new grade of polylactic acid polymer designed as the casing for some of Sony
Walkman personal stereo products, developed jointly by Mitsubishi Plastics and Sony Corp.
In Japan, the demand for biodegradable plastics is estimated to be 200000 tonnes in 2010
and 1.5 million tonnes in 2015 [ 18].

9.5. CONCLUSIONS
Major requirements for the commercial success of compostable polymer materials are: price,
market demand, performance, composting infrastructures and legislation. The increased interest
in compostable polymers is a response to the growing price of petroleum and growing consumer
demand for sustainable products. The global demand for renewable polymers is experiencing
rapid growth as costs issues have improved in recent years. Improvement in processing technologies and effect of scale-up decreased the price of compostable polymers. According to
Cargill Dow [19] in 2006 demands for PLA exceeded supply.
Factors such as soaring oil prices, worldwide interest in renewable resources, growing concern regarding greenhouse emissions and a new emphasis on waste management have created
renewed interest in biodegradable polymers. Improved biodegradable plastics performance has
also a positive influence on global demand.
According to IBAW [20] with regard to the optimized manufacturing processes and improved
cost competitiveness of the future, the long-term perspectives for bioplastics are promising.
The potential of compostable polymers materials depends on a further reduction in price,
development of the cost of fossil resources, process optimization and scaling up supported by
full life cycle assessment analysis, legislative measures, and development of composting infrastructures and the environmental awareness of consumers.

Compostable Polymer Materials

208
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