Question 1

5 out of 5 points

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in

model parameters.
Answer
Selected Answer:

True

Question 2
5 out of 5 points

A joint probability is the probability that two or more events

that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Answer
Selected Answer:

False

Question 3
5 out of 5 points

A continuous random variable may assume only integer

values within a given interval.
Answer
Selected Answer:

False

Question 4
5 out of 5 points

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision

nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Answer
Selected Answer:

False

Question 5
5 out of 5 points

Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30

trials of the simulation have been conducted.
Answer
Selected Answer:

False

Question 6
5 out of 5 points

Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be

represented by continuous random variables.
Answer
Selected Answer:

False

Question 7
5 out of 5 points

The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will

occur in the future.
Answer
Selected Answer:

True

Question 8
5 out of 5 points

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting

method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer
Selected Answer:

False

Question 9
5 out of 5 points

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable

values about the expected value.
Answer
Selected Answer:

Standard deviation

Question 10
5 out of 5 points

In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter

the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Answer
Selected Answer:

marginal

Question 11
5 out of 5 points

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker

would pay for additional information.
Answer
Selected Answer:

expected value of perfect information

Question 12
5 out of 5 points

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the

probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The
average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was
1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
No. of breakdowns
per week
0
1
2
3
4

Probability
.10
.25
.36
.22
.07

Cumulative
probability
.10
.35
.71
.93
1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

Answer
Selected Answer:

.71

Question 13
5 out of 5 points

A seed value is a(n)

Answer
Selected
Answer:

number used to start a stream of random

numbers

Question 14
5 out of 5 points

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to

determine
Answer
Selected Answer:

random number ranges

Question 15
5 out of 5 points

Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead

of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Answer
Selected Answer:

mathematical / physical

Question 16
5 out of 5 points

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship

between independent and dependent variables.
Answer
Selected Answer:

Correlation

Question 17
5 out of 5 points

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream

sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential

smoothing with = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Answer
Selected Answer:

286.2

Question 18
5 out of 5 points

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses

historical data to predict future behavior.
Answer
Selected Answer:

Time series

Question 19
5 out of 5 points

__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to

time.
Answer
Selected Answer:

Linear trend

Question 20
5 out of 5 points

rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters
1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture
estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed
as follows:
Yield, bushels per
acre
350
400
450
500

Probability
.10
.18
.50
.22

The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?
Answer
Selected Answer:

442

Question 21
5 out of 5 points

Consider the following demand and forecast.

Period
1
2
3
4

Demand
7
12
18
22

Forecast
10
15
20

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

Answer
Selected Answer:

20

Question 22
5 out of 5 points

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation

in the __________ variable that results from the __________
variable.
Answer
Selected Answer:

dependent, independent

Question 23
5 out of 5 points

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Answer
Selected Answer:

None of the above

Question 24
5 out of 5 points

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the

greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Answer

Selected Answer:

Question 25
5 out of 5 points

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual

payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the
lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal
distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation
of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would
receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four
places after the decimal.
Answer
Selected Answer:

0.0401

Question 26
5 out of 5 points

The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many

factors and varies according to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the
decimal.
Answer
Selected Answer:

4.38

Question 27
5 out of 5 points

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints

received each week. The probability distribution for
complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both
shown below. The random variable xi represents the number
of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving
xi complaints.
xi
p(xi)

0
.10

1
.15

2
.18

3
.20

4
.20

5
.10

6
.07

What is the average number of complaints received per week?

Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

Answer
Selected Answer:

2.83

Question 28
5 out of 5 points

A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even

number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round
your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
Selected Answer:

0.6016

Question 29
5 out of 5 points

An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or

D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the
economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Poor
Investment
(S1)
A
50
B
80
C
-100
D
25

Economic Condition
Average
Good
Excellent
(S2)
(S3)
(S4)
75
20
30
15
40
50
300
-50
10
25
25
25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1,

0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected
payoff?
Answer
Selected Answer:

58

Question 30
5 out of 5 points

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether
to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net
revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the
new tax code.

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance

are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected
value of perfect information? Round your answer to the
nearest dollar.
Answer
Selected Answer:

26,000

Question 31
5 out of 5 points

Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what

would the first simulation value would be __________.
Answer
Selected Answer:

Question 32
5 out of 5 points

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for

2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and
W4 = 0.5.
Answer
Selected Answer:

21.1

Question 33
5 out of 5 points

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a

product.
Month
March
April
May
June

Actual Demand
20
25
40
35

July
August

30
45

Use exponential smoothing with = .2 and the smoothed

forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for
August.
Answer
Selected Answer:

31.6

Question 34
5 out of 5 points

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to

most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop
a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Answer
Selected Answer:

91

Question 35
5 out of 5 points

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream

sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two

places after the decimal.
Answer
Selected Answer:

211.67

Question 36
5 out of 5 points

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream

sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two

places after the decimal.
Answer

Selected Answer:

246.67

Question 37
5 out of 5 points

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year
2001
2002
2003
Answer

16
20
18

Demand

Forecast

18
19
24

Selected Answer:

Question 38
5 out of 5 points

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Sales
2
4
10
8
14
18
17
20

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits

after the decimal.
Answer
Selected Answer:

0.9655

Question 39
5 out of 5 points

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a

product
Month
March
April
May

Actual
Demand
20
25
40

June
July
August

35
30
45

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38

and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in
decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15%
should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the
decimal.
Answer
Selected Answer:

.127

Question 40
5 out of 5 points

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Sales
7
12
14
20
16
25

Forecast
9
10
15
22
18
21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three

significant digits after the decimal.
Answer
Selected Answer:

.167