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Cules son las 9 posiciones fundamentales que se utiliza para lograr estas
ganancias fenomenales?
El sistema de clasificacin F-Score 9 Point
Piotroski utiliza bajo precio para reservar stocks (alta libro al mercado) para
su exploracin. Esto est en lnea con investigaciones previas que resalta el
aspecto positivo de valoracin a precio bajo para reservar stocks ms
glamour o de alto crecimiento existencias (Fama y French, 1997, Valor
Versus Crecimiento: La Evidencia Internacional).
ORIGINAL INGLES
How to Pick Winning Stocks that Gain 138.8% Joseph Piotroski F-Score
Value Investing Model
By Kurtis Hemmerling
1 Comment
piotroski stocks upPlaying and investing in the stock market is a gamble. But
you can decrease and manage investment risk when you have a strategy
that works, like Joseph Piotroski.
The American Association of Individual Investors tracks 63 separate stock
picking strategies that include a mix of growth, value, momentum, changes
in earnings estimates, and insider buying. By the end of December 2010,
the winning strategy for the year was from Joseph Piotroski with a 138.8%
stock market gain over 12 months. You can see the rankings for yourself on
the AAII scoreboards.
What is his system and how can you pick similar stocks? Read on
How to Pick Winning Stocks
Joseph D. Piotroski works as an Associate Professor of Accounting at the
Stanford Graduate School of Business. In 2000, he wrote the paper, Value
Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Information to Separate Winners
from Losers. It was this paper that outlined 9 fundamental ranking criteria
for picking winning stocks. Using his stock picking criteria, he was able to
theoretically average 23% annual gains between the years 1976 and 1996.
During 2010 as the market sprang back to life, his strategy worked over 5
times better than his previous average.
Year over year data makes this easy, as well as using 12 month trailing data
versus the 12 months before it.
Increase in Liquidity. The Current Ratio is achieved taking your assets and
dividing them by your liabilities. If the liquidity improved, the stock gets
another point. Same year over year criteria as the above points.
Dilution: Did the company offer more shares? If so, no point is awarded to
the company. Dilution might be necessary for a small company with little
cash on hand, but it devalues the share value and is a slippery slope to go
down. Companies that continually dilute need to be growing at very fast
rates to overcome their self-inflicted inflation. Otherwise, another notch is
earned. You can use the same annual or trailing data mentioned on all the
other points.
Gross Margin. An improvement in gross margin could highlight that the
company was able to increase prices, or that some other cost went down. If
gross margin goes up, another point is added. Need I say it again? You can
analyze year over year or 12 months over 12 months for this number.
Asset Turnover. Did the asset turnover increase year over year? Then
perhaps the efficiency of operations is increasing or sales are up. If this ratio
grew, then the final point is earned. You can analyze year over year or 12
months over 12 months for this number.
Why These 9 Points Matter
Why do these criteria matter as fundamental ratios to pick stocks with? We
could categorize the 9 points into 3 broad categories important to most
companies.
1. Profitability
Having positive earnings metrics with the Return on Assets, Cash Flow from
Operations, as well as an Increase of Return on Assets for positive annual
growth are crucial for strong value stocks. Cash Flows > Return on Assets is
an important aspect of earnings to value firms, since if relative cash flow
drops even while overall earnings and profitability goes up, this could lead
to future liquidity problems.
2. Leverage, Liquidity, and Source of Funds
Basically, long-term debt is not desirable. A decrease in the Long-term Debt
to Asset Ratio, or a rise in assets if there is no debt, creates a better
environment for a company to operate in. Nobody likes the creditor banging
on their door. An Increase in Liquidity is an important metric when
considering if a company is well positioned to pay off debt. Also, generating
monies from organic growth is also preferred to simply selling more shares.
Point 7, Dilution, highlights that cash generation from share-dilution is not
optimum.
3. Operating Efficiency
The last two F-Score points analyze Gross Margin and Asset Turnover. An
improvement in gross margin can indicate an improvement in cost, a
reduction in inventory, or the ability of a company to increase its prices.
Higher asset turnover may show that the company is generating the same
revenue on fewer assets (they sold a bunch of equipment just lying around),
or sales have risen proportionately faster than asset purchase.
Stocks able to achieve high points overall, perhaps scoring 8 or higher out of
a possible 9 points, are viewed as picks worthy of buying. A very low scoring
stock with a total of 3 or less out of 9 points should either be avoided, or
even sold short.
Increasing Both Risk and Reward
Before you run out and buy all the stocks scanned using the 9 point F-Score
system, note the associated risk factor. AAII (American Association of
Individual Investors) gives the Piotroski scan a risk rating of 2.0 since 1998.
This means that the monthly variability has been twice that of the S&P 500
for more than the past decade.
The highest gain since 1998 using Piotroskis system is 43.1% and the
largest loss is -42%.
The S&P 500 had a much smaller upside with a monthly 9.7% gain and a
monthly loss of -16.8%.
With a larger upside comes a larger risk factor. What are some current high
F-Score stock picks?
Finding Piotroskis Stock Picks
The Graham Investor is one site that freely provides ranking of stocks based
on Piotroski F-Scores.
One other free scan that gives you a variety of possible high F-Score picks is
found here.
What sort of stocks would turn up on such a scan? Below is a sample list
generated around March 1, 2011.
Company
Banks.com Inc
BNX
0.3
$7.7
Escalade, Inc.
$69.8
ESCA 5.5