SIMULATION FORECAST OF DEMAND FOR PET

BOGOTA WATER COMPANY

SIERVO TULIO MARTINEZ

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE APRENDIZAJE SENA

TECNOLOGIA EN GESTION LOGISTICA
Centro de desarrollo empresarial Cha Cundinamarca
Servicio Nacional de aprendizaje SENA
2015

SIMULATION FORECAST OF DEMAND FOR PET

BOGOTA WATER COMPANY

SIERVO TULIO MARTINEZ

ESTRATEGIA DE APRENDIZAJE

TUTOR:
JESSICA VIVIANA PEARANDA CAAS

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE APRENDIZAJE SENA

TECNOLOGIA EN GESTION LOGISTICA
Centro de desarrollo empresarial Cha Cundinamarca
Servicio Nacional de aprendizaje SENA
2015

SIMULATION FORECAST OF DEMAND FOR PET

BOGOTA WATER COMPANY

The main business area is environmental cleaning, solid waste collection in the capital
and the recovery PET plastic processing it to be sold in granular form to the industry
since the high demand of the product makes this business very profitable.
It starts with making awareness programs for residents in businesses, homes and
public places batten the plastic bins or different bags that will be collected and pressed
into the collection centers by staff recycling before being taken to the main winery in
company vehicles intended for this task.
All operational staff have clear goals and begin the process wherein the plastic should
be ground and washed with special chemicals for decontamination, then be passed to
the pelletizer and crystallizing machine. I already finished the process, being a quality
grain to be packed and is packaged
Plastic timing chart

Plastic

Plastic Storage

Ground

wash

rinsing

drying

disinfected

PET Storage

ECONOMIC STUDY

pelletizing

crystallization

packing

By making a comparison of costs and benefits we realize if the company is

profitable or not:
COST
Acquisition of software and
hardware
consultancy
staff training
Office items
Installation costs
Finance costs

BENEFITS
increased productivity

1700000
00

3500000

material saving paperwork

5200000

4500000

financial benefits

3800000

intangible benefits

3520000
0

cost savings

8500000
0

sales increase

1185000
00

Total benefits

4177000
00

8500000

4250000
84000000
2900000

Expenditure on machinery and

equipment

117.500.0
00

Office furniture

7.400.000

wages

16500000
0

Total costs

38905000
0

total utility

2865000
0

For supplying the material , the company implemented a program called Zero
Waste where it is intended to keep the city , personal contract for the collection
of recyclables clean , be the first link in the supply chain is characterized by
expediting the development period product, have a more rapid response to
market and manage time replenishment required , which makes the supply
chain more efficient , just were hired form providers who are responsible for
providing input for the company to fulfill their duties .

AVERAGE CONSUMER PRODUCT

For product consumption in the city a survey technique forecasting customer

demand is made, the survey of 30 users of the product in Kilos per month is
done.

CONSUMPTION
10

150.00%
100.00%
% acumulado 50.00%
0.00%

5
Frequency Frecuencia
0

Class

In the analysis it can be concluded that the average consumption per customer
is 15 kilos per month .

PROJECTION OF MEDIUM TERM DEMAND

This variable technique applies: Survey Forecast Sales Force to make a forecast
of estimated sales from sellers for the next three months in each area
concerned

Chart title
13500
13000
12500
12000
11500
axis title
11000

Mes 1
Mes 2
Mes 3

Axis Title

DEMAND
13500
13000
DEMANDA

12500

Linear (DEMANDA)

12000
11500
11000
0

10 12 14 16 18

Estimated demand for the next three months is an average of 13123 kilos

SALES FORECAST OF LONG-TERM

To analyze the estimated grain for next year analysis technique for time series
which takes into account the sales of the last five years was applied.
YEAR

SALES BY
KILOS

96000

99000

105000

112000

115000

120700

sales
140000
120000
100000

VENTAS

80000

Linear (VENTAS)

60000
40000
20000
0
0

In analyzing the sales of the last five years gives us a sales forecast for next
year by an estimated 120,700 KILOS
PET is in the form of small granules, in industries and inject melt pressure in
multiple cavity machines (16 ", 32", 64 ", etc.) of the preforms that are
produced are not yet containers inflated and which present only the container
mouth permanently. After the preforms are subjected to a process of precise
and gradual heating, subsequently they placed in a mold and were stretched
by means of a rod or piston to reach its size final, then they are inflated with
compressed air until they take the mold shape and the typical package is
formed.
PET is one of the most widely used for packaging various products and
packaging materials. The characteristics of this plastic containers are
lightweight, transparent, bright and with high impact resistance, have seal, do
not alter the properties of the content and are not toxic. That is why the PET
has displaced other materials and has a growing demand worldwide.
His current job is very diverse; as container, perhaps best known use is used in
soft drinks, oil, mineral water, juices, teas and isotonic drinks, wines and spirits,
sauces and other foods, detergents and cleaning products, cosmetics,
chemicals, lubricants agricultural products and treatments. In the form of film,
is used in food containers, films, audio / video and photography, blisters, films
"High-Tech" special packaging, electrical and electronic applications.
Furthermore, there is broad industry where this material is used in the
construction of various elements; textile fibers, carpets, pipes, profiles, molded
parts, construction, automotive, etc.

CONCLUSIONS
ccording to the demand that has PET, we must consider the well implemented
projective techniques , a study that allows us to determine more clearly

different market alternatives in order to achieve excellent sales projection yet

production is determined develops generating quality and meet customer
expectations .