The NFL's New Extra Point Rule Is

Great
Kyle Wagner
Filed to: KICKERS 9/13/15 8:26pm

For all the worried exegesis of the NFLs corn-fed rulebook this
offseason, not much of it was aimed at footballs best rule change in
years: the new extra point.
For this season, the NFL moved the line of scrimmage for extra point
tries to the 15-yard line; defenses would also be awarded two points
for returning a blocked kick or turnover on a two-point try. Last
year, in 1230 extra point attempts, there were just eight misses
thats a make-rate of 99.3 percent. This year, through Sundays
afternoon games, there have been 63 attempts and three four (see

update below) misses, by the Bengals, Chargers, Jaguars, and Texans.

(We also got a 48-yard attempt in Browns-Jets, for the longest extra
point attempt in NFL history.) Thats 95.2 93.7 percent, just under
where the number was predicted before the season. That makes a
bigger difference than it sounds like it should, at least while
watching the games.
Weve known since the rule was announced what the numbers look
like: kickers made 91.6 percent of their kicks from 32 yards in the
last 10 years, 94.4 percent in the last three years, and 96.7 last year.
Heres a chart from an article by FiveThirtyEights Ben Morris
predicting how kickers will adapt to the change:

All of this math is correct, with a minor allowance for the fact that
penalties from the 32-yard range affect a kicks chances much more
dramatically than from the old 19-yard range. And so far, the change
hasnt been enough to shift calcified football stratagem, and likely

wont. The Chargers even elected to kick while down five points in
the fourth quarter, after eating a five-yard penalty that put them at
the 7.
But while pushing the kicks back far enough to incentive two-point
tries into common use would be great, the stats dont entirely pick
up a separate shift here, which is apparent with today sticking close
to the projections. Which is, missed extra points are hilarious, and
making them common enough to crop up a few times a week
changes the makeup of a Sunday of games, both from the basic
parity of scorelines and the boost to the lowlight reel. Of course the
Browns fuck up and get left kicking a 48-yarder on the first Sunday
the rule is in place. Of course the Jaguars and Texans are in on this,
too. And of course, week to week, the basic effect of certain teams
having notoriously unreliable kickers means a part of the game that
was routine for everyoneand which will continue to be so for most
teamswill now be an all-new point of stress for some fans, and an
all-new well of comedy for hateful shitbags like us.
Update: Im a dumbass and forgot the Bengals. Four in 63 drops the
rate to 93.7.
Photo credit: AP Images
Trewsa Kyle Wagner
9/13/15 8:39pm

Why was there a 48 yarder? Been stuck at work. Thanks!

Kyle Wagner Trewsa

9/13/15 8:42pm

Illegal formation call on the first kick, and a holding call on the
second. He made the third easily.

JCL513 Kyle Wagner

9/13/15 9:46pm

The Bengals had an XP blocked today.

Kyle Wagner JCL513

9/13/15 9:52pm

Aw, hell. I tuned that game out. Ill update.

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9/13/15 9:33pm

Kyle Wagner

As uncommon as it was, why am I mourning the fake PAT for a

2 point conversion? It's not even a (realistic) option now...
\_()_/

Kyle Wagner Aaron rodgers women

9/13/15 9:35pm

True, but the reason you see that so much less is the EVA on
going from one to two points is way less than going from 3 to 7
(or 6.9-whatever).

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9/13/15 10:10pm

Kyle Wagner

Definitely. However, I have the (very, very, very slight) feeling

that something was taken away (fake 2-ptr) in exchange for a
less exciting outcome (missed PAT) on a what is/should be a
non-consequential play.
Christ. Ive already wasted too much phone battery on this
shit...