Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,451 Toronto residents by Smart IVR on

September 8, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.

Margin of error: +/- 1.98%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by
geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

LIBERALS LEAD TORONTO; BUT NDP LEAD IN DOWNTOWN

September 11, 2015 (Toronto, ON) - A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Liberal Party leading in
Toronto but facing tight races in Etobicoke. Meanwhile, it is the NDP who lead in Downtown Toronto where
they are holding on to the 44% they captured in 2011. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error
of +/- 1.98%, 19/20. Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
"The 416 has turned into a number of smaller regional races, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet
Research. In Etobicoke and North York, it is between the Conservative and Liberal parties, in the
downtown it is a two way race between the NDP and the Liberals, with a big Liberal lead in Scarborough.
"The Liberal party has rebounded across Ontario and specifically in the 416. In Etobicoke, they are
statistically tied with the Conservative Party with 42% to 41% with a distant third for the NDP at just 13%. In
North York, the Liberals lead by 10%, 46% to 36% with the NDP at just 16%. In Scarborough, the Liberals
have opened up a 20 point lead over the NDP with 47% to 26% and the Conservatives not far behind at
25%. In the downtown, the NDP enjoy a 7% spread with the second place Liberals at 44% to 37% with the
Conservatives not surprisingly back at just 16%."
"The most interesting numbers are the current decided vote compared to 2011 election results.
Conservative support has dropped by 7% in Scarborough, 4% in the Downtown and 3% in North York but
has increased by 2% in Etobicoke. The NDP have maintained their vote in the Downtown at 44%, have
dropped by 6% in Etobicoke, 4% in North York and 6% in Scarborough. Liberals have increased across the
board from their historical lows in 2011. Up 12% in Scarborough, 8% in North York, 3% in Etobicoke and 6%
in the downtown.
What this will mean for seat counts for each of the parties is hard to say with new ridings in the region.
Many close races are expected in ridings across Toronto, continued Maggi.
Most people said they supported the transit plan of the Liberal Party at 25% compared to 18% for the NDP
and the Conservatives equally. With 38% indicating they aren't sure, there is opportunity for each of the
parties and leaders to secure votes ahead of the Oct 19 vote on this issue. Transit is a big part of Toronto
life for many, and was an important issue in the 2014 Provincial and Mayoral elections, it will have an impact
on voters again in 2015, he finished.
Regional margins of error:
Downtown +/- 3.49%; Scarborough +/- 3.96%; Etobicoke +/- 4.13%; North York +/- 4.6%
-30Available for Interview From Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
Available for Phone Interview: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

A3

All Voters

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

3%

43%

27%

28%

14%

2%

37%

23%

24%

If a Federal election were held today, which party would you support?

Decided Only

18-34
17%
24%
44%
3%
12%
386

35-49
18%
28%
40%
1%
13%
523

50-64
32%
20%
30%
3%
14%
679

65+
29%
19%
32%
3%
17%
863

Male Female
23%
25%
23%
23%
37%
36%
2%
3%
14%
13%
1100
1351

A4

2011 Results

Mainstreet Decided Only

3%

43%

27%

28%

3%

35%

30%

31%

TORONTO

A5

2011 Results

Mainstreet Decided Only

3%

37%

44%

16%

5%

31%

44%

20%

DOWNTOWN

A6

ETOBICOKE

2011 Results

Mainstreet Decided Only

3%

42%

13%

41%

3%

39%

19%

39%

A7

2011 Results

Mainstreet Decided Only

2%

46%

16%

36%

2%

38%

20%

39%

NORTH YORK

A8

2011 Results

Mainstreet Decided Only

2%

47%

26%

25%

3%

33%

32%

32%

SCARBOROUGH

A9

Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think has the best plan
for transit funding?

18%

38%

18%

2%
25%
Conservative

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

NDP

Liberal

18-34
13%
22%
31%
2%
31%
386

Green

Not Sure

35-49
12%
19%
29%
2%
38%
523

50-64 65+
25%
21%
14%
16%
15%
22%
2%
2%
43% 40%
679
863

SCAR.
17%
19%
29%
2%
34%
621

N.YORK
25%
14%
27%
2%
32%
460

Male Female
18%
17%
18%
18%
24%
25%
2%
2%
38%
38%
1100
1351

ETOB.
25%
13%
25%
2%
34%
570

D. TOWN
7%
24%
19%
2%
47%
800

A10

SCRIPT
If a Federal election were held today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Not Sure
Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think has the best plan for transit?
Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party
Tom Mulcair of the NDP
Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party
Elizabeth May of the Green Party
Not Sure