15-061704-01 - FEDERAL ELECTIONS 2015 (eNation Sep 5-7, 2015)

Detailed Tables

RVQUAL1. Are you eligible to vote in the upcoming Federal Election being held in October?

EDUCATION

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base
Yes

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

949
949

53
52*

204
205

313
311

379
381

219
229

239
238

272
269

949
100.0%

52
100.0%

205
100.0%

311
100.0%

381
100.0%

229
100.0%

238
100.0%

269
100.0%

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

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September 8, 2015
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RV1A. Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

949
949

53
52*

204
205

313
311

379
381

219
229

239
238

272
269

The Conservative Party

208
22.0%

8
15.0%

47
23.0%

62
20.0%

91
24.0%

0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

209
22.0%

12
23.0%

41
20.0%

65
21.0%

91
24.0%

208
91.0%
FG
0
-

0
-

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

240
25.0%

8
15.0%

43
21.0%

82
26.0%

0
-

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

25
3.0%

2
4.0%

6
3.0%

10
3.0%

107
28.0%
A
7
2.0%

209
88.0%
EG
0
-

0
-

0
-

240
89.0%
EF
0
-

Green Party

17
2.0%

0
-

3
2.0%

6
2.0%

7
2.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

1
0

0
-

1
1.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Would not vote/None/Would spoil ballot

33
3.0%

13
4.0%
D
72
23.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

217
23.0%

9
5.0%
D
53
26.0%

4
1.0%

Don't Know/Not sure

6
11.0%
CD
17
33.0%
D

74
19.0%

22
9.0%

29
12.0%

30
11.0%

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

Other

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

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September 8, 2015
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RV1B. Well, which party would you say you would lean towards?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

225
217

18
17**

54
53*

74
72*

79
74*

21
22**

30
29**

31
30**

The Conservative Party

22
10.0%

1
6.0%

4
7.0%

8
12.0%

8
11.0%

22
100.0%

0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

29
13.0%

2
13.0%

6
11.0%

11
15.0%

10
13.0%

0
-

29
100.0%

0
-

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

30
14.0%

1
7.0%

5
10.0%

8
11.0%

15
20.0%

0
-

0
-

30
100.0%

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

2
1.0%

0
-

1
2.0%

1
1.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Green Party

4
2.0%

0
-

0
-

3
4.0%

1
1.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

Don't know

130
60.0%

13
73.0%

37
70.0%

41
57.0%

40
54.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

Base: Undecided
Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

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September 8, 2015
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Detailed Tables

RV1A/Q1B. ALL VOTERS - LEANERS INCLUDED

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

949
949

53
52*

204
205

313
311

379
381

219
229

239
238

272
269

The Conservative Party

229
24.0%

9
17.0%

51
25.0%

70
23.0%

99
26.0%

0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

238
25.0%

14
27.0%

47
23.0%

76
25.0%

100
26.0%

229
100.0%
FG
0
-

0
-

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

269
28.0%

9
17.0%

49
24.0%

90
29.0%

0
-

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

27
3.0%

2
4.0%

7
3.0%

11
4.0%

122
32.0%
AB
7
2.0%

238
100.0%
EG
0
-

0
-

0
-

269
100.0%
EF
0
-

Green Party

21
2.0%

0
-

3
2.0%

9
3.0%

8
2.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

1
0

0
-

1
1.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Would not vote/None/Would spoil ballot

33
3.0%

13
4.0%
D
41
13.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

130
14.0%

9
5.0%
D
37
18.0%
D

4
1.0%

Don't Know/Not sure

6
11.0%
CD
13
24.0%
CD

40
10.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

Other

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

September 8, 2015
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Detailed Tables

RV1A/Q1B. DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

780
786

35
34*

157
158

257
256

331
338

219
229

239
238

272
269

The Conservative Party

229
29.0%

9
26.0%

51
32.0%

70
27.0%

99
29.0%

0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

238
30.0%

14
42.0%

47
30.0%

76
30.0%

100
30.0%

229
100.0%
FG
0
-

0
-

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

269
34.0%

9
26.0%

49
31.0%

90
35.0%

122
36.0%

0
-

238
100.0%
EG
0
-

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

27
3.0%

2
6.0%

7
4.0%

11
4.0%

7
2.0%

0
-

0
-

269
100.0%
EF
0
-

Green Party

21
3.0%

0
-

3
2.0%

9
4.0%

8
2.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

1
0

0
-

1
1.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

Other

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

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September 8, 2015
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Detailed Tables

RV2. How certain are you that this is the party that you will actually support on Election Day:

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

789
794

35
34*

160
162

261
260

333
340

219
229

239
238

272
269

Absolutely certain

349
44.0%

9
25.0%

111
41.0%

18
55.0%

154
45.0%

122
53.0%
FG
78
34.0%

96
40.0%

331
42.0%

121
47.0%
A
100
39.0%

141
42.0%

Fairly certain

77
48.0%
A
59
37.0%

Not very certain

97
12.0%

7
20.0%

22
14.0%

32
12.0%

36
11.0%

26
11.0%

111
46.0%
E
28
12.0%

115
43.0%
E
36
13.0%

Not at all certain

18
2.0%

0
-

3
2.0%

6
2.0%

9
3.0%

4
2.0%

4
2.0%

7
3.0%

T2B

680
86.0%

27
80.0%

136
85.0%

222
85.0%

295
87.0%

200
87.0%

206
87.0%

226
84.0%

L2B

114
14.0%

7
20.0%

25
15.0%

38
15.0%

45
13.0%

30
13.0%

32
13.0%

43
16.0%

Base: Respondents who selected a party at RV1A or RV1B

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

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September 8, 2015
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RV3. And, assuming you can't vote for your first choice, which party would you support as a second choice?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

Base: Respondents who selected a party at RV1A or RV1B

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

789
794

35
34*

160
162

261
260

333
340

219
229

239
238

272
269

The Conservative Party

61
8.0%

2
7.0%

10
6.0%

23
9.0%

26
8.0%

0
-

The Liberal Party

192
24.0%

7
21.0%

34
21.0%

56
22.0%

94
28.0%

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

187
24.0%

10
31.0%

38
23.0%

53
20.0%

86
25.0%

26
10.0%
E
130
48.0%
EF
0
-

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

21
3.0%

0
-

3
2.0%

8
3.0%

9
3.0%

55
24.0%
F
39
17.0%
G
1
0

35
15.0%
E
0
-

Some other party

80
10.0%

2
5.0%

12
8.0%

34
13.0%

32
9.0%

25
11.0%

22
9.0%

17
6.0%
EF
33
12.0%

Don't know/Not sure

227
29.0%

10
30.0%

74
28.0%

86
25.0%

64
24.0%

27
3.0%

2
6.0%

11
4.0%

7
2.0%

109
47.0%
FG
0
-

42
18.0%

(DK/Ref/Not Stated)

57
36.0%
D
7
4.0%

0
-

0
-

136
57.0%
EG
3
1.0%

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

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September 8, 2015
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RV4. Thinking about the Conservative government under the leadership of Stephen Harper, from what you have seen, read or heard, would you say that you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or
strongly disapprove of their performance?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

949
949

53
52*

204
205

313
311

379
381

219
229

239
238

272
269

Strongly approve

95
10.0%

1
1.0%

27
9.0%

17
33.0%

82
26.0%

232
24.0%

15
29.0%

80
26.0%

79
21.0%

Strongly disapprove

355
37.0%

19
37.0%

58
28.0%
D
66
32.0%

120
39.0%

149
39.0%

2
1.0%

52
22.0%
G
56
24.0%
E
123
52.0%
E

38
14.0%

Somewhat disapprove

81
35.0%
FG
129
56.0%
FG
17
8.0%

5
2.0%

267
28.0%

38
10.0%
A
116
30.0%

7
3.0%

Somewhat approve

29
14.0%
A
52
25.0%

T2B

362
38.0%

18
34.0%

81
39.0%

110
35.0%

154
40.0%

587
62.0%

34
66.0%

124
61.0%

201
65.0%

227
60.0%

59
25.0%
G
179
75.0%
E

43
16.0%

L2B

210
92.0%
FG
19
8.0%

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

81
30.0%
E
146
54.0%
E

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

227
84.0%
EF

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

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September 8, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV5. Some people say that the Conservative government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected on October 19th. Other people say that it is time for another federal party
to take over and run the country. Which of these statements is closest to your point of view?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

949
949

53
52*

204
205

313
311

379
381

219
229

239
238

272
269

Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election

277
29.0%

12
23.0%

63
31.0%

85
28.0%

116
30.0%

208
91.0%
FG

19
8.0%
G

10
4.0%

Time for another federal party to take over

672
71.0%

40
77.0%

142
69.0%

225
72.0%

265
70.0%

21
9.0%

219
92.0%
E

260
96.0%
EF

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

September 8, 2015
FINAL DATA

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