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Introduction
The currency exchange rates volatility is among the most examined and analyzed economic
measures by the government. Recently, India had a big concern about rupee value with respect
to US dollar due to its all-time lowest (depreciated) value. On August 28, 2013, the Indian
rupee touched up to 68.825 against the dollar. It is not only the rupee depreciation but also
rupee appreciation that is causing concern to the economic imbalance of the country. Ahmed
and Suliman (2011) pointed out the importance of currency exchange rate volatility because
of its economic and financial applications like portfolio optimization, risk management, etc.
It is a well-known fact that the exchange rate volatility is not observed directly. A number of
models have been developed to get the accurate estimate of the volatility. Out of these,
conditional heteroskedastic1 models are frequently used. The foundation for building these
models is to make a good forecast of future volatility which would be helpful in obtaining a
more efficient portfolio distribution, better foreign exchange exposure management and
more accurate currency derivative prices.
Surrounded by these models, the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH)
model proposed by Engle (1982) and its extension, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional
Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model by Bollerslev (1986) and Taylor (1986) are the first
*
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Management, School of Professional Studies, Sikkim University, 6th Mile,
Samdur, PO-Tadong, Gangtok, Sikkim 737102, India. E-mail: krishnamurari9@gmail.com
A financial time series is said to be heteroskedastic if its variance changes over time, otherwise it is called
homoskedastic.
models that have become popular in enabling the analysts to estimate the variance of a series
at a particular point in time (Enders, 2004). Since then, there have been a great number of
empirical applications of modeling the conditional variance of a financial time series (Diebold
and Nerlolve, 1989; Nelson, 1991; Bollerslev et al., 1992; West and Cho, 1995; Engle and
Patton, 2001; Evans and Lyons, 2002; Shin, 2005; Charles et al., 2008; Jakaria and Abdalla,
2012; and Rossi, 2013). The focus of these studies was to design explicit models to forecast
the time-varying volatility of the series using past observations. The findings have been
applied successfully in the financial market research.
Many empirical studies have been done on modeling the exchange rate volatility by
applying GARCH specifications and their large extensions, but most of these studies have
focused on developed currencies, and to the best of our knowledge, there are no such practical
studies for estimating the volatility of Indian rupee against US dollar, pound sterling, euro
and Japanese yen (world major currencies); therefore, the current paper attempts to fill this
gap. The main objective of this paper is to model exchange rate return volatility for Indian
Rupee (INR) by applying different univariate specifications of GARCH type models for daily
observations of the rupee log differenced exchange rate return series. The volatility models
applied in this paper include the GARCH(p, q), Exponential GARCH(p, q), Threshold
GARCH(p, q), and Power GARCH(p, q).
Volatility
It is helpful to give a brief explanation of the term volatility before starting the description of
volatility models. Statistically, volatility is frequently measured by the standard deviation
which reflects the degree of fluctuations of the observed values from the mean. Generally,
volatility means the stretch of all possible outcomes of a variable. Sometimes, variance is also
used as a volatility measure. In foreign exchange markets, we use the term volatility to reflect
the spread of currency returns over a time period. In this paper, we use the variance as a
measure of volatility.
23
forecasting. Mandelbrot (1963) and Fama (1965) were pioneers in documenting the empirical
regularities regarding these series. Since then many researchers have found similar regularities
about the financial time series (Baxter, 1991; Guillaume et al., 1997; and Cont, 2001). Due to
a large body of empirical evidence, these regularities can be considered as stylized facts. The
most common stylized facts are the following:
Heavy Tails
When the distribution of foreign exchange return time series is compared with normal
distribution, heavy tails are observed in terms of excess kurtosis. The standardized fourth
moment for a normal distribution is 3, whereas for many financial time series, a value well
above 3 is observed (Cont, 2001). A similar observation is witnessed in the present study also
(see Table 1).
Log
Difference
of RD (LRD)
Log
Difference
of RJY (LRJ)
Log
Difference
of RPS (LRPS)
77.66
45.96
57.38
46.84
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.01
Median
77.84
41.43
57.42
46.17
0.02
0.02
Maximum
106.03
72.12
91.47
68.36
3.68
5.76
4.15
4.02
Minimum
63.96
32.69
38.79
39.27
5.7
5.12
3.89
3.01
SD
6.89
9.70
9.76
4.19
0.64
0.83
0.69
0.44
Skewness
0.28
1.01
0.03
1.31
0.43
0.20
0.04
0.28
Kurtosis
2.92
2.90
2.65
6.02
7.85
6.89
5.16
10.94
45.62
564.75
17.8
2,221.66
3,376.36
2,125.5
652.03
8,822.54
Prob.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Obs.
3,340
3,340
3,340
3,340
3,339
3,339
3,339
3,339
JB
Log
Difference
of RE (LRE)
INR per
Euro (RE)
Mean
INR per US
Dollar (RD)
INR per
Pound
Sterling (RPS)
Volatility Clustering
Similar values/changes in the long run tend to accumulate and this is termed as volatility
clustering. In most of the time series, large and small values in the log-returns have a tendency
to occur in clusters. When volatility is high, it is likely to remain high, and when it is low, it
is likely to remain low. According to Engel and West (2005), volatility clustering is nothing
but accumulation or clustering of information. Volatility clustering is well evident in Figures
1 to 4.
Leverage Effects
The leverage effect refers to the negative correlation between an asset return and its volatility,
i.e., rising asset prices are accompanied by declining volatility and vice versa (Nelson, 1991;
Gallant et al., 1992; Campbell and Kyle, 1993; and Longmore and Robinson, 2004). In foreign
24
6
4
LRD
2
0
2
70
60
RD
50
40
30
02
04
06
08
10
12
6
4
LRE
2
0
100
80
4
RE
60
40
20
02
04
06
08
10
12
25
Figure 3: INR per 100 Japanese Yen (RJ) and Log Difference of RJ (LRJ)
6
LRJ
4
2
0
80
70
4
6
60
RJ
50
40
30
02
04
06
08
10
12
Figure 4: INR per Pound Sterling (RPS) and Log Difference of RPS (LRPS)
LRPS
2
0
110
2
100
RPS
90
80
70
60
26
02
04
06
08
10
12
Co-Movements in Volatility
Financial time series across different markets exhibit parallel fluctuations in terms of direction
of movements; for example, an upward movement in stock returns in Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE) being matched by an upward movement in National Stock Exchange (NSE). These comovements in rupee exchange rate volatility are also observed in Figures 1 to 4.
Calendar Effects
Generally, the volatility of asset returns or exchange rate returns are lower during weekends
and holidays compared to normal trading days. The most common calendar anomalies that
affect the exchange rate volatility are the January effect and the day-of-the-week effect.
Many studies attribute this phenomenon to the accumulative effects of information during
weekends and holidays (Miller, 1984; Theobald and Price, 1984; Abraham and Ikenberry,
1994; Kaur, 2004; and Cai et al., 2006).
t2
p
i 1
i 2t i
q
j 1
j t2 j
...(1)
...(2)
t2 t21 t21
...(3)
where
= Constant term;
Exchange Rate Volatility Estimation Using GARCH Models,
with Special Reference to Indian Rupee Against World Currencies
27
2t 1 (the ARCH term) = news about volatility from the previous period, measured as the
lag of the squared residual from the mean equation; and
t2
p
i 1
i 2t i
q
j 1
j t2 j
k 1 k
2t k I t k
...(4)
p
i 1
t i
ti
q
j 1
j log( t2 j )
k 1 k
t k
tk
...(5)
Here it should be noted that the left-hand side takes the log of the conditional variance
over time which implies the exponential nature of the leverage effect. Further, the estimates
for the conditional variance are positive. The existence of leverage effects can be checked by
the hypothesis that i < 0. The impact is asymmetric if i 0. The sign of is anticipated to be
positive in most practical cases.
The Power GARCH (PGARCH) Model: Taylor (1986) and Schwert (1989) introduced
another class of asymmetric GARCH models, where instead of modeling for variance, the
standard deviation is modeled and is called the standard deviation GARCH model. The
power constraint of the standard deviation can be projected and the optional parameters
are added to capture irregularity of up to order r:
28
q
j 1
j t j
p
i 1
i (|t i| i t i )
...(6)
29
Series
ADF Test
t-Statistics
p-Value
PP test
Adj.
t-Statistics
p-Value
KPSS
Test
Statistics
p-Value
LRD
42.62
0.00
57.01
0.00
1.43
0.15
LRPS
42.82
0.00
56.94
0.00
0.98
0.33
LRE
58.76
0.00
58.76
0.00
1.64
0.10
LRJ
59.85
0.00
59.93
0.00
0.85
0.40
...(7)
where
Yt is the dependent variable at time t;
ARCH-LM Test
Once the residuals from ARMA(1, 1) are obtained, the existence of heteroskedasticity in
residuals of log exchange rate return series is checked using Engles Lagrange Multiplier (LM)
test for ARCH effects (Engle, 1982). This particular heteroskedasticity specification was
motivated by the observation that in many financial time series, the magnitude of residuals
appeared to be related to the magnitude of recent residuals (Chakrabarti and Sen, 2011).
However, ignoring ARCH effects may result in loss of efficiency.
The ARCH LM test-statistic is calculated from a supporting test regression. To test the null
hypothesis that there is no ARCH up to order q in the residuals, we use the following regression:
30
2t 0
q
s 1
0 2t s vt
...(8)
ARCH
F-Statistics
Prob.
F(1,3336)
LM-Statistics
Prob.
2 (1)
LRD
227.74
0.00
213.31
0.00
LRPS
49.19
0.00
48.50
0.00
LRE
64.87
0.00
63.67
0.00
LRJ
325.87
0.00
297.05
0.00
31
LRPS
LRE
LRJ
GARCH
(1, 1)
GARCH
(2, 1)
GARCH
(1, 1)
GARCH
(1, 1)
GARCH
(1, 1)
GARCH
(2, 1)
Constant ()
0.000342
0.00015
0.00505
0.00400
0.019517
0.01295
0.273045*
0.39708*
0.05143*
0.04942*
0.100899*
0.17630*
0.23775*
0.10819*
0.87002*
0.93588*
0.94305*
0.871744*
0.91288*
i +j
1.02935
0.98731
0.99247
0.972643
1.08918
1.057645
12.35045
0.0004
0.603694
0.602994
0.00669
0.4372
0.4375
0.9348
17.3168
0
2.598767
0.107
shows highly statistical significance for rupee exchange rate against major world currencies.
It indicates that the past volatility of Indian foreign exchange rate is significantly influencing
the current rupee volatility.
The sum of coefficients of ARCH term and GARCH term and (persistent coefficients)
in GARCH(p, q) model reported in Table 4 are near to one for all the series, suggesting that
shocks to the conditional variance are highly persistent, i.e., the conditional variance process
is volatile. This shows that the volatility clustering phenomenon is implied in exchange rate
return series.
LRPS
LRE
LRJ
0.000342
0.000147
0.004964
0.004177
0.021446
0.014193
0.306522*
0.39711*
0.05690*
0.06106*
0.120594*
0.18210*
0.00301**
0.23511* 0.01110*
0.02535**
0.02503* 0.04014*
0.10183*
GARCH Effect ()
0.783613*
0.86903*
0.93635*
0.943543* 0.867794*
0.910441*
i +j
1.090135
1.26614
0.99325
1.00460
1.09254
0.988388
11.66325
Prob. F(1,3336)
0.0006
0.633212
0.652476
0.013669
0.4262
0.4193
0.9069
22.14605
3.376216
0.0662
Note: * and ** indicate that the coefficients are significant at 1% and 5% levels, respectively.
LRPS
LRE
LRJ
0.3515
0.440692*
0.26373
0.57298*
0.10255
0.11638*
0.09471
0.10868*
0.12811
0.158255*
0.23452**
0.10544
0.30817*
0.17716**
Leverage Effect ()
0.03715*
0.027829* 0.009054*
0.021398*
0.014956*
0.017479*
GARCH Effect ()
0.987516*
0.993237* 0.98770*
0.98836*
0.986088*
0.990482*
i +j
1.428208
1.56622
1.09704
1.144343
1.29865
1.10408
26.94159
0
1.483617
0.239194
0.023062 110.6067
1.706964
0.2233
0.6248
0.8793
0.1915
Note: * and ** indicate that the coefficients are significant at 1% and 5% levels, respectively.
All the parameters presented in the table are statistically significant at 1% and 5% levels.
The significance of EGARCH term () indicates the presence of asymmetric behavior of
volatility of Indian rupee against US dollar, pound sterling, euro and Japanese yen. The positive
coefficients of EGARCH term suggest that the positive shocks (good news) have more effect
on volatility than that of negative shocks. The null hypothesis of no heteroskedasticity in
Exchange Rate Volatility Estimation Using GARCH Models,
with Special Reference to Indian Rupee Against World Currencies
33
the residuals is accepted for LRPS and LRE, but not for LRD and LRJ in EGARCH(1, 1)
model.
LRPS
LRE
LRJ
0.000342
0.272314*
0.000141
0.002933
0.395929* 0.030942*
0.005614
0.025614
0.055991*
0.114605*
0.00175*
0.016315
0.173314*
0.04097**
0.09243*
0.09735*
GARCH Effect ()
0.783649*
0.869056* 0.935482*
0.944103*
0.870101*
0.913422*
Power Parameter
2.000885*
2.013997* 3.030564*
1.400777*
1.457562*
1.498009*
i +j
1.055963
1.264985
1.000094
0.984706
1.086736
0.966424
11.66511
0.0006
0.605952
0.463149
0.003725
0.4364
0.4962
0.9513
41.81468
0
9.529872
0.002
Note: * and ** indicate that the coefficients are significant at 1% and 5% levels, respectively.
It is evident from Table 7 that the estimated coefficients are significant and negative for
all the exchange rate return series in PGARCH(1, 1) model, indicating that negative shocks
are associated with higher volatility than positive shocks. The ARCH-LM test statistics did
not exhibit additional ARCH effect for LRPS and LRE under PGARCH(1, 1) model, but
LRD and LRJ witnessed the presence of further ARCH in the residuals of the model.
Thus, PGARCH (2, 1) model is estimated to eliminate the presence of ARCH effect where
null hypothesis of no ARCH is accepted. This shows that the variance equations are well
specified.
Conclusion
Exchange rate volatility estimation is considered as an important concept in many economic
and financial applications like currency rate risk management, asset pricing, and portfolio
allocation. This paper attempts to explore the comparative ability of different statistical and
econometric volatility forecasting models in the context of Indian rupee against US dollar,
pound sterling, euro and Japanese yen. Four different models were considered in this study.
The volatility of the rupee exchange rate returns has been modeled by using univariate
GARCH models. The study includes both symmetric and asymmetric models that capture
the most common stylized facts about currency returns such as volatility clustering and
34
leverage effect. These models are GARCH(1, 1), EGARCH(1, 1), TGARCH(1, 1) and
PGARCH(1, 1) for log difference of rupee exchange rate return series against pound sterling
and euro and GARCH(2, 1), EGARCH(2, 1), TGARCH(2, 1) and PGARCH(2, 1) for log
difference of rupee exchange rate return series against US dollar and Japanese yen.
GARCH(1, 1) and GARCH(2, 1) models are used for capturing the symmetric effect, whereas
the other group of models for capturing the asymmetric effect. The paper finds strong evidence
that daily rupee exchange returns volatility could be characterized by the above-mentioned
models. For all series, the empirical analysis was supportive of the symmetric volatility
hypothesis, which means rupee exchange rate returns are volatile and that positive and
negative shocks (good and bad news) of the same magnitude have the same impact and effect
on the future volatility level. The parameter estimates of the GARCH(p, q) models indicate
a high degree of persistence in the conditional volatility of exchange rate returns of rupee
against world major currencies which means an explosive volatility.
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