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Outline
Introduction
Tectonics
Seismology
Earthquake hazard
Discussions
Concluding remarks
Recommendations
the central collisional belt; 300 km wide, 1300 km long & peaks of over 3
km
TECTONICS
Two mountain ranges dominate the region:
Terrains of the Melanesian arc subjected to oblique
collision in early Pliocene; still involved in active
subduction in the Solomon Islands
Highlands (Irian Jaya Fold Belt & Papuan Fold Belt)
formed by two tectonic events
Obduction
Tectonic structure of New Guinea (Abers and McCaffrey, 1988; Abers, 1994)
Free-air gravity anomalies of OJP and New Guinea (Mann and Taira, 2004)
Tectonic plates configuration of PNG (Ripper and Letz, 1991; 1993; PMGO)
SEISMOLOGY
Earthquake activity is a manifestation of and
delineate
8.0
2002 08 Sept
2007 01 April
7.8
8.1
Mw
.
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.0
8.1
Effect
subsidence
uplift
horizontal displacement
Slumping - tsunami
vertical displacement
submarine slumping tsunami
5.5m horizontal
displacement
30-40cm uplift tsunami
1 metre uplift
Earthquake activity
Amongst the most intense in
the world
Frequent magnitude 7 and
above earthquakes
about
2 per year
stress accumulation
Active
plate interaction
of rapidly
evolving of Plate
boundaries
Inter-slab and intra-slab
activity
Diverse earthquake
wave propagation path
Poor local seismograph
coverage
9So most earthquakes
are located using
global seismograph
data
9Locations and
depths include very
large errors
Future great eqs are
imminent & of concern
Indicative
Seismic instrumentation
Proper monitoring started in the 1962 by USGS
Local networks of soft and strong motion began about the
same time;
EARTHQUAKE HAZARD
Available data
Compiled using databases established based on ISC, USGS,
and sourced from many workers; of
The Code was developed in the 1970s using data from abroad, as PNG didnt have
the data then.
PNG Statutory Instrument No.44 of 1971 (1971), Regulations made under the
Building Ordinance 1971, documented by Papua New Guinea Government
Printer, November, 1971 (plus Amendments).
First revised in 1982 and documented by PNG National Standards Council (1983),
Code of practice for general structural design and design loadings for buildings,
Part 4, Earthquake loadings.
Revisions were not taken onboard
Method
The hazard is represented by uniform probability response
spectra computed using the 4-staged Cornell method
1.
2.
Quantification of seismicity
3.
4.
Tectonics
Collision zone
Seismotectonics uniform
earthquake distribution
2. Quantification of seismicity
For each source zone (as well as faults future
work)
Figure shows magnitude-time plot for earthquakes in the New Britain Arc zone, and
the catalogue completeness is estimated (considering seismograph coverage, and
linearity of the earthquake magnitude recurrence plot) and represented by the blue
line. The plot shows magnitude against time for the known declustered earthquakes,
with dependent foreshocks and aftershocks removed.
The earthquake magnitude recurrence plot for the New Britain Arc. This is a plot of
Nx, the number of earthquakes per year equal to or larger than magnitude x, against
magnitude x. Nx values indicating the number of earthquakes in entire source region
per year.
An alternative measure of earthquake activity is Ax, which is the number of
earthquakes per year per 100 x 100 km. The Nx values depend on source region
size so can't be compared (large zones have more earthquakes than small zones),
but Ax values can be compared between zones.
The gradient of this plot gives the b-value (a measure of the proportion of small to
large earthquakes) for the zone, which in this case is a very high value of 1.386.
Table lists earthquake magnitude recurrence for the New Britain Arc
zone.
These estimate of earthquake magnitude recurrence for the New
Britain Arc zone of model PNG1 used the earthquake catalogue to
2008-09-30. The zone covers 65,730 km2. The gradient is represented
by beta = 3.19, which corresponds to b-value = 1.39.
Events/year
Events/year
Ret Period
Ret Period
Whole zone
/100x100km
/100x100km (yr)
No =
7952015.4
Ao =
1209800
0.00
0.000
N1 =
326796
A1 =
49718
0.00
0.000
N2 =
13430
A2 =
2043.21
0.00
0.000
N3 =
551.921
A3 =
83.968
0.01
0.002
N4 =
22.6818
A4 =
3.45075
0.29
0.044
N5 =
0.932132
A5 =
0.141812
7.05
1.073
N6 =
0.0383069
A6 =
0.00582792
171.59
26.105
N7 =
0.00157426
A7 =
0.0002395
4175.30
635.219
This process was repeated for every source zone for the seismotectonic model PNG1.
At this stage the model PNG1 has a total of 120 zones in six depth ranges.
4. Earthquake hazard
Computed spectral ground motion recurrence
(SGMR), integrating probabilities of motion from all
earthquakes in space, magnitude and freq of motion
using commercial software EZ-FRISK (McGuire, 1993)
1. Port Moresby
PGA
recurrence
for Port
Moresby.
This is for
bedrock
motion,
considering
magnitudes
5.0 and
higher.
Figure shows that the high-frequency peak ground acceleration at Port Moresby is dominated
by hazard contributions from shallow or crustal seismic zones using the attenuation of ChiouYoungs (2008), but higher accelerations may be originating from the intra-slab zones, using the
attenuation function of Atkinson-Boore (2003).
Figure shows
the uniform
probability
response
spectra at Port
Moresby for
return periods
of 475 years,
3,000 years
and 10,000
years, for
bedrock, and
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.
The peak ground acceleration is numerically equal to the response spectral acceleration
at near zero period, for all the left-most points on each of the plots. The spectra for other
return periods can be found by re-calculation, or approximated by interpolation.
2. Kokopo
Figure shows
source zone
contributions
for Kokopo
ground motion.
This plot gives
contributions
for motion with
spectral
acceleration at
a period of 1.0
seconds.
Zones contributing most to the hazard are those closest to Kokopo and the most
active are the zones of the New Britain Arc and New Britain Trench. These zones
consequently contribute highest to the total hazard, or otherwise is spread amongst
many other zones.
Figure shows
the response
spectra for
Kokopo.
These
uniform
probability
response
spectra are
for bedrock,
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.
Figure shows response curves for 475, 3,000 and 10,000 year return periods. Spectra for
other return periods can be derived from re-calculation, or approximated by
interpolation.
3. Lae
Figure shows source zone contributions for Lae ground motion. This plot gives contributions for
peak ground acceleration. It shows that the source contributions in Lae are dominated by the Huon
seismotectonic zone within which the city is located, and the neighbouring Schrader and Adelbert
zones, as well as Huon Peninsula at depth.
Figure shows
PGA recurrence
for Lae.
Results for
bedrock motion
and peak
ground
acceleration,
considering
magnitudes 5.0
and higher.
Figure shows that the high-frequency peak ground acceleration at Lae is totally
dominated by contributions from nearby local earthquakes, determined using the
Atkinson-Boore (2003) attenuation function.
Figure shows
response
spectra for
Lae. These
uniform
probability
response
spectra are for
bedrock,
using
magnitudes
from 5.0.
The peak ground acceleration is numerically equal to the response spectral acceleration at near
zero period, for all the left most points on each of the plots.
The uniform probability response spectra for return periods of 475 years, 3000 years and
10,000 years are shown in the Figure. Spectra for other return periods can be found by recalculation.
Outcomes
The earthquake source zones are quantified using
historical and recent seismicity data, and checked
against geology, geophysics and geodesy (GPS
deformation) during the current tectonic regime
Attenuation functions that were derived using data
from comparable tectonic environments were
selected
No check for consistency with the few existing
PNG strong motion data, and isoseismal data
A component of the next stage of the study
Ground motion recurrence computations were then
performed for selected locations
PGA
Max Cred Eq
Port Moresby
0.07
7.3
254
Lae*
0.35
7.1
71
Kokopo
0.50
7.6
60
Madang
0.28
7.4
66
Wewak
0.24
6.9
41
Kimbe
0.32
7.6
83
Buka
0.36
7.7
91
Honiara
0.31
7.5
64
CONCLUDING REMARKS
PNG a geologically, seismically and geographically
complex region
Tectonic
RECOMMENDATIONS
Things proposed to be achieved for the purpose of realising in
full the value of the study. These include:
(1) Determine earthquake hazard at other additional sites, to
improve the resolution and therefore better hazard mapping
(2) Improve on the seismotectonic model developed and hazard
maps covering the whole geographic region
(3) Immediate use of the hazard maps to facilitate the
replacement of the existing earthquake building code
(4) Replace seismic station network to improve data acquisition
required which will in turn improve earthquake hazard
analysis, and be able to sustain maintenance of the network
(5) To improved hazard analysis; delineate active faults
(6) Develop plans for the future updates of the hazard map
(7) Acquire EZ-FRISK or similar tools for immediate use, and for
future earthquake hazard updates
FUTURE WORK
Will include:
Determination of PNG earthquakes (epicenters,
depths, magnitudes and mechanisms) using a local
seismograph network to reduce the uncertainty and
current scatter in epicentre and depth estimates;
THANKS