BMI Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Q1 2014
www.businessmonitor.com
MEXICO
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT
INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2017
ISSN 1750-5100
Published by:Business Monitor International
Mexico Information Technology

Report Q1 2014
INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2017
Part of BMIs Industry Report & Forecasts Series

Published by: Business Monitor International
Copy deadline: October 2013
Business Monitor International

Senator House
85 Queen Victoria Street
London
EC4V 4AB
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467
Email: subs@businessmonitor.com
Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com
2013 Business Monitor International

All rights reserved.
All information contained in this publication is
copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor
International, and as such no part of this
publication may be reproduced, repackaged,
redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used
in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or
mechanical, including photocopying, recording,
taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by
any other means, without the express written consent
of the publisher.
DISCLAIMER
All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of
publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor
International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the
publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as
to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained.
Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014
CONTENTS
BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 7
SWOT .................................................................................................................................... 9
Wireline SWOT ....................................................................................................................................... 11
Political ................................................................................................................................................. 13
Economic ............................................................................................................................................... 14
Business Environment .............................................................................................................................. 15
Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 16

Table: Mexico IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (MXN mn) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Broadband ............................................................................................................................................. 20
Table: Telecoms Sector, Internet, 2010-2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Macroeconomic Forecasts ............................................................................................... 22

Economic Activity .................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Mexico - Gdp By Expenditure, Real Growth % . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .......................................................................................... 27

Table: Americas IT Risk/Reward Ratings, Q1 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 30

Hardware ............................................................................................................................................. 30
Software ............................................................................................................................................... 34
IT Services ............................................................................................................................................ 36
Industry Trends And Developments ................................................................................ 41

Regulatory Development .................................................................................................. 44
Competitive Landscape .................................................................................................... 47
International Companies ......................................................................................................................... 47
Table: IBM Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Table: SAP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Local Companies ................................................................................................................................... 49

Table: Kio Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Table: Dextra Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Table: Microsip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 51

Softtek ................................................................................................................................................... 51
Sonda SA ............................................................................................................................................... 55
Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 59
Page 4
Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 63

Demographic Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 63
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 67
Industry Forecast Methodology ................................................................................................................ 67
Sources ................................................................................................................................................ 68
Risk Reward Rating Methodology .............................................................................................................. 69
Table: It Risk Reward Rating Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Table: Weighting Of Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Page 5
BMI Industry View

BMI View: Mexico stands out as the second largest IT market in Latin America behind Brazil. Its proximity
to the US is a huge advantage, ensuring consumers and businesses gain access to the latest services and
products. We estimate the market passed MXN200bn in value in 2012 and will rise steadily to MXN260bn
by 2017. Government projects aimed at getting more of the population online and providing e-government
services will underpin market growth, while new developments such as cloud computing will provide strong
growth impetus. The IT services segment will be supported by IT outsourcing demand from the US and key
industries such as telecoms and financial services.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: MXN96.7bn in 2013 to MXN117.4bn in 2017, increasing 21.4% over the
period. Migrations to Windows 8 should provide a boost to hardware upgrades in the short term, while
increased connectivity and lower internet prices will help spur demand.
Software sales: Fastest growing segment of the market, increasing from MXN39.8bn in 2013 to
MXN50.1bn in 2013, an increase of 25.9%. Downside risk to this outlook depends on the success in
bringing down illegal software use, which at 63% is well above OECD levels.
IT services sales: This will increase from 35.3% of the market to 35.6% between 2013-2017, rising
to MXN92.7bn. Driving growth will be sectors such as government, telecoms and financial services.
Risk/Rewards Ratings: Mexico's score is 49.8 out of 100.0. Mexico ranks fourth in the Americas region in
our latest RRR table.
Key Trends And Developments
Government efforts to reduce the digital divide are beginning to come to fruition. The government will
remain a major spender in the IT market over our five-year forecast period 2013-2017, with initiatives to
provide greater e-government services and support informatisation for enterprises. SMEs will
increasingly push growth trends as companies use IT services and software to lower their costs and
improve efficiency.
Increased access to mobile data networks will change the nature of hardware sales and IT service usage.
Greater connectivity for fixed and mobile devices will drive interest in cloud computing, with the
service's advantages easier to appreciate as networks extend and improve to offer the speeds necessary for
a move to the cloud.
Cities such as Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey are the key markets for IT hardware, but we
believe states in the south east and pacific regions offer growth over the medium term. New financing to
acquire devices will help extend the reach of networks, to encourage more Mexicans to acquire the
devices to get online.
A new bill signed into law by President Enrique Pea Nieto in June 2013 aims to limit the power of
dominant operators in the telecoms sector. This will encourage competition in the broadband industry,
Page 7
currently dominated by Telmex, lowering prices and helping achieve the goal of universal online access.
However, by October 2013, the new regulator Ifetel was reported to have made little progress in its goal
of increasing competition.
The launch of new tablets continues to drive growth in the computer hardware market. New launches in
the fourth quarter of 2013 include the Philips 7, while the Nokia Lumia 2520 was poised for an imminent
launch.
In May 2013, Mexico's IT industry association, AMITI, published its 'Roadmap to 2025' ('Mapa de ruta
2025') for transforming Mexico via the use of IT. The study was part of AMITI's strategy to encourage
the government to include information and communications technology (ICT) as an integral part of the
National Development Plan (Plan Nacional de Desarollo; PND).
Page 8
SWOT
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Mexico has a supportive government and the ambitious long-term e-Mexico policy
framework has been in place since 2001.
The second-largest domestic market in Latin America, with a significant multinational

presence and large domestic companies.
Weaknesses
Proximity to the US spurs development of outsourcing and IT services segment.
Low average incomes and large regional disparities.
Limited availability of credit, particularly for small businesses.
Low level of IT investment at just 1.4% of GDP, compared with an average of 4.3%
for OECD countries.
Investment levels particularly low in the software sector, which also suffers due to
piracy.
Uncompetitive telecommunications sector keeps connectivity prices high, limiting

demand for IT products.
Opportunities
There will be increasing demand for services and this will contribute to revenue
growth for companies, especially outsourcing for US businesses looking to cut
costs. The banking, tourism and restaurant sectors are carrying out technology
upgrades.
The e-Mexico policy and internationally funded programmes are aimed at increasing
PC and internet penetration, particularly in education.
Increasing informatisation in small and medium companies will drive demand for a
range of new IT services.
Page 9
SWOT Analysis - Continued
Threats
Competition for investment and markets from China and other low-cost countries.
Economic growth heavily dependent on US economy.
Page 10
Wireline SWOT
Wireline SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Competition exists in the fixed-line sector; the alternative operators continue to

expand their market share vis--vis incumbent operator Telmex.
Some alternative operators have been reporting growth in demand for fixed-line
services.
Regulator reported accelerated growth in the number of internet users in 2010 and
fixed-line does not appear to be declining.
Weaknesses
Broadband market showing strong growth with several operators present.
Dominance of Telmex has limited growth in the broadband sector; poor service
quality has also been cited as a problem.
Size of Mexico makes rolling out fixed infrastructure difficult.
Alternative operators are considerably smaller than Telmex with networks generally
concentrated in major towns and cities.
Opportunities
Bundled services have been instrumental in encouraging fixed-line retention, and

market share of smaller operators is growing as a result.
Number portability should allow alternative operators to continue decreasing Telmex's

dominance.
Operators continue to reduce the cost of broadband while also raising download
speeds.
Cable TV operators promoting cheaper service bundles that will drive further growth;
triple-play packages should help to reduce the speed of fixed telephony decline.
New fibre-optic network to be built by Telefnica, Televisa and Megacable will

provide a challenger to Telmex.
Proposed legislation will encourage competition and will restrict dominant operators.
Page 11
Wireline SWOT Analysis - Continued
Threats
Mobile substitution will ultimately reduce demand for fixed services.
Fixed-line market could decline more rapidly, despite the promotion of bundled
service packages.
Mobile broadband could become major driver of market growth, limiting prospects for
fixed operators.
Page 12
Political
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Democracy seems to have taken root after the 71-year tenure of the Partido
Revolucionario Institucional ended in 2000, and there are effective checks and
balances on executive power to prevent a return to one-party rule.
Weaknesses
State officials cannot be re-elected, which makes them effectively unaccountable to

the electorate and reduces the incentive to pass legislation.
High levels of violence in the government's war against powerful drug cartels have
highlighted that much more work is necessary to reduce regional inequalities.
Opportunities
We expect ongoing structural reforms to go at least part of the way towards reforming
an outdated judicial system.
Threats
Endemically high levels of violence have called into question whether the federal
government is truly in charge of large swathes of the country. This looks set to
continue in the short term, as the cartels battle for territory in Mexico and expand their
operations into Central America.
Page 13
Economic
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Close proximity to the US and membership in the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) give Mexico important advantages when trading in the US
market.
The country has the most free trade agreements of any country in Latin America,
fostering international exchange and investment.
Weaknesses
The economy remains largely tied to economic prospects in the US, which is a
concern given the still-weak outlook for the US consumer over the next few years.
Most of the capital flows into the country are still short term, threatening the health of
the country's financial account should investors grow cautious and making it hard to
implement loose monetary policy.
Opportunities
Sound economic policy under the administration of former president, Felipe

Caldern, has continued under Enrique Pea Nieto's new government, supported by
an independent central bank. This means Mexico is well placed to register sustainable
growth.
Large numbers of vehicle and vehicle parts manufacturers relocated to Mexico to gain
easier and cheaper access to US markets. This process shows little sign of slowing,
and as such we forecast that foreign direct investment (FDI) will increase over our 10year forecast period, provided the government maintains business-friendly policies.
Threats
The substantial short-term capital inflows could be reversed when the developed
world begins to normalise monetary policy.
Page 14
Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
The government's focus on improving infrastructure is likely to aid the overall

business environment in the longer term, making Mexico a more attractive location for
future foreign direct investment inflows.
The government appears to remain committed to free trade and has been slowly
diversifying its exports base away from dependence on the US.
Weaknesses
Education is an issue, with Mexico having one of the lowest levels of education
achievement of all OECD countries, though recent reforms should go some of the way
to addressing this.
More focused regional policy is required to help shift resources from the relatively
prosperous north to the poorer south.
Heavily regulated labour markets and powerful trade unions make hiring and firing
difficult for employers.
Opportunities
Rules on foreign investment are relatively relaxed in some sectors, with majority
ownership allowed in some circumstances.
Threats
We see only limited scope for the new government to tame the violence in the nearterm given the more fractured criminal landscape.
Page 15
Industry Forecast
BMI has revised local currency forecasts, taking into account the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and
other developments in the local economy. We believe Mexico's IT market will grow just under 5% in 2013
to MXN210.8bn after rapid growth in 2012. Although growth will slow because of economic headwinds,
there are a number of factors that will contribute to the market's continued development. Low PC
penetration and an increasing move towards online services will drive demand for IT services and software,
while the hardware market grows at a steady pace. Government spending will remain a key driver across all
segments of the market.
2013 Overview
Overall conditions will be favourable for the consumer PC segment in 2013 as the move to update to
Windows 8 from late 2012 continues. Supporting this is the continued expectation for peso appreciation in
2013, averaging MXN12.50/US$ over the year. As of Q313, we continue to expect Mexico will post real
GDP growth of 1.6% in 2013, reflecting our expectation that after the robust 3.9% growth in 2012, the
economy will slow on the back of moderating external demand
While consumer spending is looking up, creeping inflation is a concern and likely to remain so throughout
2013. Nevertheless, consumer credit looks likely to remain robust, having levelled off around 24.0% yearon-year (y-o-y) in 2012, which should encourage private spending. The popularity of new form factors such
as tablets and lighter notebooks should provide new growth areas and reduce the market share of traditional
PCs.
Business confidence appears to be on the rise, with a boost from business-friendly legislation. Much will
depend on the strength of the US recovery, which remains uncertain. The labour market remains weak and
consumer credit is expected to cool.
Given the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, we do not expect public sector expenditure to
be a significant driver of economic activity over the coming decade. However, public sector IT spending
should grow again as public sector organisations roll-out e-services and support infrastructure. Key national
government IT spending areas include solutions to improve tax collection efficiency and health services,
promote trade and enhance security.
Page 16
Interest in cloud computing should continue to grow. The economic crisis encouraged many organisations
to look closer at cloud computing models such as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), and there are estimates that
a majority of Mexico's large companies have conducted cloud pilots. Vendors have reported faster-thanexpected growth in demand for cloud services in some IT verticals such as finance.
Some vendors have expressed concerns about an apparent rise in drug violence, which was affecting
channel activities in some regions and driving up operating costs. For the most part, vendors seemed likely
to maintain their operations. The most affected northern and western regions were mostly secondary
markets. Despite continuing economic and security uncertainties, there should be opportunities in key IT
verticals such as financial services, telecoms and government, with other growth sectors set to include
healthcare, utilities and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Market Drivers
As Mexico's economy expands over the next five years, some fundamental drivers, including low PC
penetration, growing PC affordability and US corporate demand for IT outsourcing, should ensure growing
IT demand. Mexico certainly has plenty of potential for progress on a range of ICT indicators, including a
computer penetration level of less than 20% and underdeveloped e-services.
IT spending, as a percentage of GDP, is about 1.4% and remains well below OECD levels. BMI projects
that per capita IT spending will rise significantly over the next five years. Higher disposable incomes will
allow for growth in consumer loans and will mean more money to spend on 'big-ticket items' such as PCs.
Mexico City and its surrounding area remains the mainstay of the market and accounts for at least 50% of
total IT spending in the country. Mexico's underpenetrated south east and Pacific regions are expected to
offer growth opportunities over BMI's five-year forecast period from 2013-2017, particularly in the south
east. IT penetration in the public sector remains relatively low in the region and larger Mexican IT
distributors have now taken notice of latent demand in this area.
The consumer fundamentals of low household penetration of many digital devices such as notebook
computers and greater affordability should keep the PC market on an upwards trajectory. Growing
broadband penetration, including 3G mobile, will drive the PC market and should help encourage the
popularity of new form factors such as tablets. Netbooks will remain attractive for price-sensitive
consumers and small businesses compared to fully featured notebooks, although this advantage is being
reduced. Meanwhile, tablets are expected to be an ongoing growth area.
Page 17
Government initiatives, accounting for around 20% of Mexico's IT budget, should help drive the market.
The government's e-Mexico plan, with its ambitious programmes of investment in digital community
centres and the like, should ensure widening demand, even if targets are missed. In particular, continued
funding of MXN650mn for the Economy Secretariat's PROSOFT programme and the government's focus
on boosting the underdeveloped software sector will keep moving the sector forward.
Another key driver will be the increasing involvement of telecoms service operators in the PC market. The
broadband market has seen exceptional growth and BMI projects more than 52mn Mexican internet users
by 2017. Telmex has emerged as a major distributor of PCs over the past few years, with annual volume
shipments of more than 1mn units bundled with its internet services. Increasingly, however, mobile
operators are likely to take centre stage, with operators such as Telmex's sister company Telcel promoting
mobile internet packages at prices comparable to those offered by Telmex. Telcel has also begun selling
Apple's iPad is set to offer a variety of netbooks and laptops.
Segments
The government's overall policy framework for economic development includes an emphasis on using IT.
There is a drive for informatisation in many sectors, including among SMEs and education. The government
has also launched a US$445mn plan to introduce ICT into the education sector.
Mexico has struggled to make much headway in e-government, but local governments are now increasingly
launching their own initiatives and looking to private funding to make up for deficiencies in federal
programmes. This makes local government tenders an important and growing source of opportunity for
vendors, and has prompted some vendors to seek more distributors with the ability to penetrate this
segment.
In the enterprise segment, government support should encourage IT adoption to spread steadily from larger
companies to their smaller partners and customers. Only around one-third of Mexican enterprises are
believed to have made IT investments, meaning there is significant room for growth.
There is still considerable potential for ERP sales, as companies focus on cost efficiencies and regional
expansion. HR applications are being implemented to enable better communication with other
functionalities such as accounting. Meanwhile, storage and database solutions are a significant growth area
in the Mexican market.
Page 18
In the Mexican corporate and industrial sector as a whole, the slump in technology investments has left a
series of relatively obsolete equipment that needs replacing, creating sustainable demand. Despite this, IT
services will show the fastest growth over the forecast period from 2013-2017, especially outsourcing
driven by demand from US companies.
Cloud computing will be a major vendor focus and will drive investment. However, currently this remains a
small niche market. Mexico's relatively high broadband charges are expected to act as an inhibitor to the
development of cloud computing and could see Mexico lag other countries in the region.
In the retail PC segment, more creative financing plans and better access to credit will gradually help bring
computer ownership within the reach of millions more Mexicans on lower incomes. This should help offset
the effects on consumer demand of higher unemployment and a higher savings rate. Low PC penetration
also offers a growth opportunity as Mexico lags in comparison with regional rivals Chile and Brazil. An
expanding organised retail segment will also boost sales to the household segment, with notebooks and
netbooks now readily available in popular retail chains such as Soriana and Chendruai, as well as
department stores such as Palacio de Hierro.
Summary
The computer hardware market is forecast to grow from MXN96.7bn in 2013 to MXN117.4bn in 2017,
with computer sales rising from MXN80.1bn to MXN97.2bn. Software spending should rise from
MXN39.8bn to MXN50.1bn, and IT services from MXN74.3bn to MXN92.7bn.
Table: Mexico IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (MXN mn)
2010
2011
2012
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
158,351
174,629
201,127
210,801
225,290
235,560
247,285
260,221
1.21
1.22
1.27
1.20
1.21
1.22
1.22
1.23
- Hardware
76,800
80,984
92,770
96,705
102,789
106,886
111,587
117,438
o/w PC Sales
62,208
65,759
76,071
80,072
85,109
88,501
92,394
97,238
- Software
26,128
32,525
37,711
39,789
42,805
45,051
47,602
50,080
- Services
55,423
61,120
70,646
74,307
79,696
83,624
88,095
92,704
IT Market
IT Market As % of GDP
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI
Page 19
Broadband
Table: Telecoms Sector, Internet, 2010-2017
No. of internet users

No. of internet users/100 inhabitants
No. of broadband internet subscribers
No. of broadband internet subscribers/100
inhabitants
2010
2011
2012
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
34,872
40,605
45,107
47,664
49,703
51,176
53,203
55,843
30.75
35.37
38.86
40.57
41.84
42.63
43.86
45.58
11,985
12,586
13,845
16,165
18,212
20,151
21,894
23,349
10.57
10.96
11.92
13.76
15.33
16.78
18.05
19.06
According to the regulator there were 45.107mn
Industry Trends - Internet
internet users in Mexico at end-2012, 38.86% of the

population. BMI is forecasting sustained year-on-
2010-2017
year (y-o-y) growth in internet usage, reaching
25,000
20
2016f
2017f
0
2015f
0
2014f
subscriber data published by the leading broadband
40
2013f
latest regulatory data for the end of 2011. Based on
50,000
2012
BMI's internet forecast for Mexico is based on the
60
2011
population.
75,000
2010
55.84mn users by end-2017, about 45.6% of the
service providers, we estimate the number of

broadband subscribers grew to 13.8mn. Data from
the regulator do not include 3G mobile subscribers,
Number of Internet Users ('000) (LHS)

Number of Internet Users/100 Inhabitants (RHS)
Number of Broadband Subscribers ('000) (LHS)
Number of Broadband Subscribers/100 Inhabitants (RHS)
although WiMAX data modems are included.
Despite having a broadband penetration rate in
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, Cofetel, operators
excess of 12.6%, it is important to remember this

figure reflects business and residential subscribers. Broadband internet services remain expensive for many
Mexicans and there are still a significant number of PC owners without home connections. An OECD report
in 2012 criticised Mexican internet services for being highly priced, putting the country at a disadvantage,
with the cost of high-speed connections a concern as well as the cost of modems and related equipment. The
government has outlined a series of reforms to tackle this problem and we have factored in the positive
effects this will have on the market to our estimates.
Page 20
We maintain our view that the broadband sector would grow even more strongly if prices were lowered.
This could be achieved if the proposed legislation is passed by the government and would result in an
increase to our forecasts. In October 2012, Cofetel approved a resolution to facilitate the provision of
broadband in rural areas, namely isolated settlements where it would be unprofitable for telecoms operators
to extend their networks. Cofetel claims it will set up Wi-Fi hotspots in these areas, offering residents free
access to the internet. BMI welcomes this scheme as a means of raising internet usage across the country,
but the problem of expensive computers and other devices remains.
Our current forecast for Mexico's broadband sector envisages about 23.4mn fixed broadband subscribers at
end-2017. We expect mobile broadband to become an increasingly important feature in expanding the reach
of broadband services. Although our 3G subscriber forecast still depicts relatively slow growth, it is
important to remember that mobile broadband subscribers include customers who use devices such as USB
sticks, smartphones and netbooks with built-in broadband modems. Growth in this segment should start to
take off over the next few years and we believe that there is potential for Mexico to follow trends seen
elsewhere in Latin America.
Page 21
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Activity
BMI View: We maintain our Mexico real GDP growth forecast of 2.3% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014,
compared to 3.8% in 2012. Real private consumption has held up relatively well despite the weakening of
the overall economy in H113, and we expect household spending to pick up over the coming months. In
addition, we believe President Enrique Pea Nieto's reforms will attract significant investment over the
coming years.
Macro Strategy
We have revised our forecasts for several components of GDP by expenditure for Mexico, following the
release of Q213 figures and the recent historical data revisions made by the national statistics agency.
However our headline real GDP growth forecast remains unchanged from our recent downgrade (see 'Weak
2013 Growth To Give Way To Stronger 2014', August 21) at 2.3% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014, compared to
3.8% in 2012. We believe that while the recent string of hurricanes poses a downside risk for growth in
Q313, the Mexican economy will sustain a broad recovery through the end of the year, after a weak
performance in H113, and accelerate at a robust pace in 2014. The main drivers of growth over the coming
years will be household spending, which has held up relatively well this year despite unfavourable
economic conditions, and stronger exports, driven by greater demand from a strengthening US consumer.
We also believe that President Enrique Pea Nieto's reform drive will succeed in attracting additional
foreign investment as early as next year, though much will depend on the scope of energy reform (see 'A
Step Forward, But Investment Still Uncertain', August 14), which is currently being debated in congress.
Page 22
Household Spending Holding Up Despite Economic Slowdown

Mexico - Real GDP & Real Private Consumption Growth, % chg y-o-y
Source: BMI, INEGI
Expenditure Breakdown
Private Consumption: We have revised up our real private consumption growth forecast from 2.8% to
3.4% for 2013, and from 3.2% to 3.8% for 2014. Real private consumption expanded by 3.0% year-on-year
(y-o-y) in H113, despite a significant deterioration in the economy, with real GDP growth coming in at
1.0% y-o-y during the same period, illustrating the consumer's resilience. Moreover, improving consumer
confidence and retail sales growth, the latter expanding by 1.3% y-o-y in July after contracting by 0.4% y-oy in H113, point to greater consumer spending in the second half of this year. In 2014, we believe that
declining unemployment, which we forecast to fall from 5.2% in August to 4.2% by the end of next year,
combined with an overall improvement in economic activity, as the US economy also picks up, will lead to
stronger household spending in Mexico.
Page 23
The Worst Is Over For The Consumer

Mexico - Consumer Confidence Index And Retail Sales Growth
Source: BMI, INEGI
Government Consumption: Real government consumption expanded by only 0.3% y-o-y in H113, due to
spending delays associated with the transition to President Pea Nieto's government. As a result, we have
revised down our 2013 real government consumption forecast from 1.4% to 0.8%. That said, we have made
an upward revision to our 2014 real government consumption forecast from 1.3% to 2.0%, as President
Pea Nieto's recently proposed budget for next year allocates additional fiscal stimulus to support the
ongoing economic recovery.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation: The delays in government spending seen this year have also weighed
heavily on gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), prompting us to downgrade our 2013 real GFCF growth
forecast from 2.4% to 0.6% in 2013. Indeed, public GFCF contracted by 7.4% y-o-y in H113, driving the
0.2% contraction in total GFCF seen during the first half of this year. That said, we expect President Pea
Nieto's recently announced US$315bn 2013-2018 National Infrastructure Plan will accelerate capital
spending into infrastructure over the coming months and into next year. In addition, President Pea Nieto's
ongoing reform drive will attract significant foreign investment next year, and we therefore forecast real
GFCF to expand by 3.5% in 2014.
Page 24
Spending Delays Weighing Heavily On Investment, But Improvements

Ahead
Mexico - Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation, % chg y-o-y
Source: BMI, INEGI
Net Exports: Real export growth weakened significantly from 5.7% y-o-y in H112, to 0.9% y-o-y in H113,
as pent-up US demand last year drove a significant expansion in manufacturing exports, which was unmet
early this year. As a result, we revised down our 2013 real export growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.1%. We
also downgraded our 2014 forecast from 6.4% to 5.0%, though a strengthening US consumer will contribute
to a significant expansion of exports, particularly of manufactured goods. Real import growth also slowed
significantly from 7.0% y-o-y in H112 to 0.9% y-o-y in H113, driven by a weaker consumer, prompting us
to downgrade our import growth outlook. We now forecast real import growth of 2.0% in 2013, compared
to 3.8% previously, and 5.0% in 2014, compared to 5.4% previously. However, despite the recent
downgrades, the expected consumer recovery will still result in robust import growth over the coming years.
Risks To Outlook
Risks to our real GDP growth outlook lie mostly to the downside. First, a string of deadly hurricanes, along
the coasts of both the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, could weigh on economic activity through
output disruptions and declines in consumer and business confidence, which could see Q313 GDP come in
Page 25
below our expectations. Second, any significant setback in the ongoing US recovery would have major
implications for growth in Mexico, mainly through the trade and investment channels, but would also
impact the consumer through a weakening in labour market conditions. Third, the failure by President
Enrique Pea Nieto to pass his planned reforms, particularly energy sector reform, would see investor
sentiment towards Mexico deteriorate significantly, and have substantial negative effects on medium and
long-term real GDP growth.
Table: Mexico - Gdp By Expenditure, Real Growth %
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
-4.7
5.1
4.0
3.8
2.3
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.9
-6.5
5.6
4.8
4.6
3.4
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.9
2.2
1.9
2.5
2.4
0.8
2.0
1.4
1.5
1.5
-9.3
1.3
7.8
5.5
0.6
3.5
4.5
4.4
4.8
Exports of goods and services, real

growth % y-o-y 1,2
-11.8
20.5
8.2
4.2
2.1
5.0
5.6
5.4
6.1
Imports of goods and services, real

growth % y-o-y 1,2
-17.6
20.5
8.0
6.0
2.0
5.0
5.5
5.3
5.9
Net exports of goods & services, real

growth % y-o-y 1,2
-88.8
14.6
-13.8
230.0
-1.1
4.7
-0.0
-3.4
-4.0
Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y
1,2
Private final consumption, real growth

% y-o-y 1,2
Government final consumption, real
growth % y-o-y 1,2
Fixed capital formation, real growth %
y-o-y 1,2
Notes: f BMI forecasts. 1 Base year=2003. Sources: 2 INEGI/IBMI calculation.
Page 26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI's latest industry Risk/Reward Ratings for the Americas saw only one change in position as Mexico
moved above Argentina to fifth in the table as the latter's score declined due to forecasts for weaker
consumer demand. While there were no other positional changes in the table in the Q114 update, the
average score for the region declined q-o-q, on the back of downward revisions for IT hardware sales in
most markets. This trend is partly the result of a mixed income growth and consumer confidence outlook for
the Americas, but also a consequence of the shift in the composition of sales from notebooks to low-cost
Android tablets. Demand for tablets is maintaining unit growth in most markets, but the declining cost of
devices is squeezing increases in market value.
The US continues to occupy top position in our Americas Risk/Reward Ratings, with an unchanged score in
Q114. The US dominates the global IT market so its high position above regional peers is to be expected.
US IT firms continue to be global leaders with rapid innovation, while enterprises generally have high
levels of adoption of emerging technologies such as big data analytics and complex cloud deployments.
This sustains buoyant IT software and services markets, even as on-premises IT spending is declining. The
hardware market continues to expand, sustained by strong demand for premium tablets, particularly Apple's
iPad.
Canada is in second position, and like the US, there was no change to its score in Q114. It remains some
distance behind the US, largely owing to the smaller size of its domestic market, but due to high incomes it
is far ahead of the leading Latin American markets in terms of overall score. Canadian consumers have
many similar characteristics to their US counterparts in terms of hardware spending and a preference for
premium devices. However, in the enterprise market, in addition to smaller size, the Canadian market trails
the US with slower adoption of emerging technologies. This difference between the markets could increase
in 2014 in the wake of the NSA PRISM revelations. Canadian enterprises have largely relied on US cloud
providers. However, surveys in 2013 showed enterprises are reconsidering their exposure to an uncertain
regulatory environment through US providers. If Canadian firms do look to switch to domestic providers
there could be a slowdown in cloud adoption in the short term as data centre capacity in Canada would have
to be increased.
Chile is in third place as the leading emerging market in the region, with high incomes and penetration of IT
software and services among enterprises helping to offset the small size of the market due to its population
being far smaller than that of the leading Latin American markets. IT is more widely used among Chilean
consumers and businesses than in many of its peer markets, so the market is relatively large as a share of
Page 27
GDP. Another feature of Chile's market, as is the case with most developed markets, is the greater
weighting of IT services. However, it remains far behind the US and Canada in terms of adoption of
emerging technologies.
Brazil has the second highest industry rewards in the region in Q114, supported by the large population.
However, it scores below the regional average in the other three categories. Economic growth has been
strong over the past few years but BMI believes the consumer story has weakened, leading us to revise our
forecasts for hardware, software and services spending. This revision pulled down the industry rewards
score by 1.2pps q-o-q. Like most of the Latin American markets, hardware spending growth is also being
limited by the availability of discretionary spending and consumer preference for low-cost Android tablets
as substitutes for more expensive notebooks.
While the Brazilian market presents significant challenges its high position reflects the strong prospects as
the region's largest market. Low PC penetration and rising incomes will support hardware market
expansion, while the modernisation of enterprises will provide opportunities for software and services
vendors. Finally, as Brazil looks forward to hosting the FIFA 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics
Games, it will need to update infrastructure and services, providing a boom for vendors.
Mexico leapfrogged Argentina in the Q114 update despite receiving an unchanged score. Mexico has a
relatively strong consumer outlook, with rising incomes and a large population. There is considerable scope
for hardware sales growth due to a supportive macroeconomic environment combined with low PC
penetration. Enterprise spending continues to benefit from modernisation initiatives, with spending on
software suites, including enterprise resource planning and consumer relationship management, areas of
growth.
Argentina received a lower score as a result of the weak macroeconomic environment, pushing it one place
down the table to sixth. We highlight ongoing risks to the county's outlook, particularly in light of currency
depreciation, which have negatively impacted the industry rewards score. Although an increasing share of
devices is produced domestically, as a large number of components are imported, price pressures will hit
vendors operating in the country. Government initiatives to promote the domestic ICT sector will offset
some of the squeeze from a weak macroeconomic environment, but nonetheless BMI forecasts it will be the
underperformer from the large Latin American markets.
Peru was the only country to receive a higher IT Risk/Reward Rating score q-o-q in Q114, but it remains
behind the larger markets in the region. Demand for commodities has boosted the domestic economy and
translated into retail, enterprise and public sector spending on IT products and services. We expect this
Page 28
trend will continue, although there is downside risk arising from a potential slowdown in demand from
China. IT market growth is closely linked to the fortunes of Peru's commodities sector, as is the economy as
a whole, and therefore any drop in demand from China would have significant impact.
The bottom two markets in the Americas Risk/Reward Ratings continue to be Colombia and Venezuela in
eight and ninth position. Both markets received lower scores in Q114, with their respective industry rewards
scores down by 1.7pps q-o-q. This is partly due to challenging economic conditions, particularly in
Venezuela uncertainty around the currency and fiscal position is high. There is also an additional challenge
posed by imports of low-cost Android based tablets which could cannibalise sales of higher priced
notebooks. Colombia and Venezuela are characterised by high levels of economic and political uncertainty,
with both scoring below the regional average in every category, and BMI does not foresee them moving up
the table, at least in the short term.
Table: Americas IT Risk/Reward Ratings, Q1 2014
Rewards
Country
Risks
Industry Rewards Country Rewards Industry Risks Country Risks IT Rating
Rank
Previous
Rank
US
82.5
90.0
55.0
66.8
78.2
Canada
62.5
90.0
65.0
66.7
70.3
Chile
52.5
70.0
50.0
68.2
59.3
Brazil
65.0
60.0
45.0
50.8
58.8
Mexico
60.8
60.0
52.5
48.1
57.3
Argentina
53.3
75.0
40.0
52.1
56.8
Peru
56.7
55.0
45.0
55.1
54.6
Colombia
53.3
55.0
47.5
46.8
51.9
Venezuela
40.0
70.0
35.0
34.6
45.8
Average
58.5
69.4
48.3
54.3
59.2
Scores are weighted as follows: 'Rewards' at 70%, of which Industry Rewards, 65%, and Country Rewards, 35%; 'Risks'
at 30%, of which Industry Risks, 40%, and Country Risks, 60%. The 'Rewards' rating evaluates the size and growth
potential of a telecoms market in any given state, and a country's broader economic/socio-demographic characteristics
that impact the industry's development; the 'Risks' rating evaluates industry-specific dangers and those emanating from
the state's political/economic profile, based on BMI's proprietary Country Risk Ratings that could affect the realisation of
anticipated returns. Source: BMI.
Page 29
Market Overview
Hardware
Computer hardware sales account for the largest proportion of Mexico's IT market, with sales reaching
MXN92.8n in 2012 and expected to rise to MXN117.4bn by the end of our five-year forecast to 2017. The
economic outlook plays a strong role in the expectations of market growth, as well as factors such as
availability of communications infrastructure and launching new products.
2013 Outlook
We maintain our estimate of 6mn units sold in 2012 for Mexico. While PC penetration continues to grow, it
remains below 25%, and the affordability of devices remains a difficulty to address. Low annual average
incomes, of about US$5,000 per annum, and financing have long been bottlenecks to faster growth of PC
penetration.
Data from the telecoms regulator highlights that Internet users reached 45.1mn at the end of 2012, with just
over half accessing the internet outside the home. Of those accessing the internet outside the home, 19.1mn
did not have access to a computer, while 3.5mn did. The number of internet users that have computers at
home that are not connected to the internet continues to decline, suggesting consumers are less likely to
purchase computers without including internet access. However, the rapidly growing number of internet
users without computers at home provides a large potential market for computer hardware vendors to reach.
Pricing is likely to be a key hurdle for consumers to overcome, with lack of connectivity also a major
disincentive.
In 2013, migrations to Microsoft's new Windows 8 operating system should provide a boost to hardware
upgrades, even if its dimensions are uncertain. Retailers claimed that many businesses and consumers were
waiting for the October 2012 release of Microsoft's new Windows 8 operating system before investing in an
upgrade. The release of Windows 8 could also provide a fillip to the ultrabook market, as tablet makers
leverage its capabilities to offer devices with touch screens and convertible designs.
Page 30
A significant PC market growth opportunity exists in
Hardware Market (MXNmn)
provincial areas and second-tier cities, where

multinational vendors are now trying to strengthen
2010-2017
distribution. Mexico's under-penetrated south east

region is expected to offer growth opportunities over
BMI's five-year forecast period to 2017, particularly
100,000
75,000
in the public sector.

50,000
Government sales are an important segment of these
25,000
provincial markets. IT penetration in the public
of latent demand in this area. The Pacific region is
PCs
2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012
2011
larger Mexican IT distributors have now taken notice
0
2010
sector remains relatively low in such regions, but
Servers
also a potential opportunity, but development

potential is not expected to be as great as in the south
east.
Mexican business demand should also grow, but there is much uncertainty about the economic situation
north of the border, which has a strong influence on Mexican and business sentiment and investment. New
financing programmes for businesses to acquire IT solutions will also support more spending. Businesses
have maintained a cautious attitude to IT investment due to uncertainty about a sustainable economic
recovery, but there should be a boost from computer hardware tenders previously deferred as a result of the
economic situation. Continued growing demand for mobility will drive sales.
Segments
Notebooks will remain the major growth area in 2013. Notebook shipments, including netbooks, are set to
grow at a CAGR of 14% over the forecast period. Migrations to the Windows 8 operating system have the
potential to help trigger a new cycle of hardware upgrades, although much will depend on business and
consumer confidence. There was some evidence in 2012 that the surge in demand for tablets could cut into
sales of Windows PCs.
The share of laptops in total computer sales is estimated at more than 60%, with the dollar value of laptop
sales growing five times that of desktops. This trend is evident in the household and company sectors,
where notebooks have become the main driver of growth. Customers are responding to greater affordability,
Page 31
better features and more choice. The ability to pay for devices over a longer period is also making PCs and
laptops more affordable to a greater range of consumers. Tying this in with broadband contracts also
provides ongoing demand for data services which benefits telecoms operators.
Smaller companies are also exhibiting a growing preference for mobility. As desktop prices fall, in some
cases below those of notebooks, the main market for desktops is becoming large companies, which have a
relative preference for higher-end products.
During the economic slowdown, netbooks emerged as a growth driver, but the upwards trajectory of
netbook shipments growth may flatten as the price differential with full-featured notebooks becomes less
significant. Most netbooks currently sell in Mexico in the US$300-500 price range, which puts pressure on
average PC prices and revenue. Netbooks and notebooks face competition from high-end smartphones,
which are being offered by vendors as alternative connectivity solutions and often include a Wi-Fi option.
Tablets
Tablets are a niche, but growing, area of the computer hardware market, which we expect to continue
expanding in 2013. Initial sales of the Apple iPad were strong, with around 2mn units sold worldwide
within the first two months. Other vendors, such as Samsung with its Galaxy Pad, have followed Apple in
releasing net tablet devices. Tablet notebooks are being designed to appeal to consumers who find a
smartphone inconvenient for consuming video media or surfing the web, but for whom a netbook is still too
big or heavy.
Most tablets are expected to be significantly more expensive than laptops at US$400-800. However, 2012
saw the Mexican release of a broad range of locally produced devices at lower prices. Despite a mixed track
record for this format, they are seen as a growth area in 2013. Some analysts forecast that tablet sales could
overtake sales of netbooks within the next two to three years, and be well ahead of desktops. While tablets
were initially seen mainly as a consumer device, there is evidence from several markets of increasing
demand in the business segment.
Ultrabooks
Ultrabooks, higher-performance notebooks designed as a response to Apple's increasingly popular

MacBooks, are an emerging product category that Intel and certain vendors backed heavily. However, in
H112 sales of the devices fell far short of Intel's prediction that ultrabooks would comprise 40% of US
notebook sales by the end of 2012. While exact sales figures were hard to arrive at, as vendors do not yet
Page 32
typically break out ultrabooks as a separate category of notebook sales, a Gartner estimate of global
ultrabook sales, in the region of 500,000 units in H112, about 0.5% to total notebook sales in that period.
Drivers
Mexico Internet Users ('000)

One key PC market driver is the involvement of
Access The Internet Outside The Home
telecoms service operators in the PC market.

Increasingly, mobile operators such as Telcel are
promoting mobile internet packages at prices
comparable to those offered by Telcel's sister
company Telmex. The internet is also providing a
new purchasing channel, with more customers
buying hardware online.
Demand for PCs and related hardware has grown in

all sectors, particularly SMEs and home users. The
strongest growth, even among business users, will
continue to be in the generic computer sector. PC
sales are driven especially by higher consumer
Source: Cofetel
purchasing power, lower prices and more credit

availability.
Other factors include the renewal of equipment by large corporations, the adoption of technology by
medium and large corporations, and government spending. A survey by software firm Symantec found
growing awareness of green IT among Mexican companies, with 39% of surveyed firms reported to be
developing a green IT investment plan.
PCs remain the mainstay of hardware revenue. With the modernisation drive set to continue, there is
obvious potential for growth to continue over our forecast period. The government's e-Mexico plan aims to
get 98% of all Mexicans online. According to surveys, the main barrier for non-PC-owning households is
cost, with 60% saying they were unable to afford a computer.
Meanwhile, the long-term demand outlook and government programmes are drawing more brand-name
vendors to seek opportunities outside Mexico City and other primary markets. More than half the desktop
computers sold in Mexico are home assembled. Prices have fallen substantially in recent years, placing tight
pressure on distributor and retailer margins. Several firms in the domestic market are trying to move up the
Page 33
quality ladder. Some PCs with parts of Asian origin allow profit margins of up to 10%, twice that obtained
by global vendors.
Software
We expect the roll-out of Windows 8, which took place at end-2012, to continue driving software sales
throughout 2013, with the market growing 5.5% in 2013 to reach MXN39.8bn. Imported software is the
market's driver, with the country's proximity to the US an advantage in gaining the latest software releases.
Cloud computing, although still a relatively small share of the total software spend, continues to make rapid
advances.
2013 Outlook
Software CAGR for 2013-2017 is forecast at around 5.8%, outpacing general IT market growth, as the
government turns its attention to overcoming Mexico's long-standing underinvestment in this area. Mexico
has the second largest software market in Latin America, although it also ranks second in losses through
software piracy. The software piracy rate is around 63% currently, well above OECD levels.
In 2013, migrations to the Windows 8 operating system is expected to impact positively on market revenue,
although pre-launch publicity for the new system was more low-key than for its predecessor Windows 7.
Meanwhile, with business confidence recovering the market should see a boost from systems upgrades
previously deferred because of the global economic situation. Another factor that could boost investment is
government regulations requiring companies to integrate with the Servicio de Administracion Tributaria
(SAT) for real-time approval of electronic invoices. Software vendors will see an opportunity to help
businesses prepare to meet regulatory compliance for senders and receivers of invoices.
Page 34
Segments
Mobility, smart devices, broadband and cloud
Software Market (MXNmn)
services are among the trends encouraging more

software spending by Mexican SMEs, which have to
2010-2017
deal with increasing data flow. Government financial

support for informatisation among enterprises should
60,000
help to counteract the impact of margin pressures on

IT budgets. The software sector's growth is driven
40,000
partly by increasingly strong demand for solutions

from SMEs. A lack of IT infrastructure contributes
to the high failure rate among SMEs in many parts
20,000
of the country.
2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012
2011
enterprise resource planning (ERP), supply chain
2010
The most popular applications include basic
management solutions, integral administration and

accounting suites, inventory control, hotel
administration packages, point-of-sales applications,

e-business solutions and computer-aided manufacturing applications. Companies are implementing new HR
management solutions to facilitate seamless communication with other areas such as finance and
accounting.
Business intelligence software is another strong performer, with sales of databases growing steadily.
Demand for storage solutions has also grown considerably, and will be further driven by new Mexican
government legislation regarding information governance, and the trend of server virtualisation. Storage
optimisation has become a key driver of storage solutions sales as organisations look to manage costs, and
this is currently a growth area in the Mexican market. Systems management and security software should
also provide opportunities, with growing demand for more sophisticated security solutions, and more
spending on networked security solutions.
Cloud Computing
Vendors have expressed surprise at the speed of take-up of cloud computing in some Mexican IT verticals
such as finance. Mexico's relatively high broadband charges were expected to act as an inhibitor to the
Page 35
development of cloud computing and could see Mexico lag other countries in the region. Despite this, a
combination of enterprise objectives such as cost reduction and greater efficiency should combine to drive
adoption of cloud services in 2013. Further growth is expected for cloud computing models such as
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), with estimates that around 50% of Mexico's large companies have conducted
cloud pilots.
Demand should grow as vendors and service providers, including new market players, roll-out a greater
variety of service offerings. The biggest software opportunities will be in non-critical file storage or
customer-facing applications such as customer relationship management (CRM). SaaS has won more
acceptance as smaller businesses have increasingly had to meet performance, visibility and compliance
standards previously expected more of larger companies.
Verticals
In terms of verticals, public and financial sectors, healthcare, the chemical industry, utilities and SMEs are
seen as those with the most growth potential. Despite the financial crisis, there should continue to be
opportunities in the financial sector thanks to regulatory compliance and a desire to cut costs. More
Mexicans are likely to use internet banking as mobile communications networks improve. The industrial
and services sectors have also seen high growth.
Government spending on software is one of the sector's main drivers. Key national e-government demands
include solutions to improve tax collection efficiency and health services, promote trade and enhance
security. At state level, areas of planned spending include document administration, as well as ERP and
financial applications. New areas of development include telecare and e-education that will help bring
improvements to government services.
The limited share of commercial software in Mexico's total IT investment, at just 10.3%, has attracted
concern from some analysts. In terms of the domestic industry, Mexico's main software geographic centres
are located around Mexico City and three technology parks in Monterrey and Guadalajara, the latter city
enjoying the label of Mexico's 'Silicon Valley'. All four locations possess a sizeable pool of existing
technology companies and labour and good telecommunications infrastructure, as well as tax and other
incentives for investors.
IT Services
IT services offers the greatest area of growth, with 5.6% CAGR for 2013-2017. We forecast the market will
grow 5.2% in 2013 to MXN74.3bn, accounting for around 35% of the market's total. IT services continue to
Page 36
grow despite economic pressures, with consumers and businesses alike becoming more accustomed to
spending on services.
2013 Outlook
Mexico's outlook remains tied into developments in the US and the country's economic performance. At
home, government, telecoms and financial services sectors provide opportunities for a variety of vendors in
the service market. IT services is one resource priority for the government's information and knowledge
society budget, creating opportunities for companies in the sector.
The government's e-Mexico programme, launched in 2000, aims to promote universal access to knowledge
through IT. A programme of budget cuts as a result of the economic crisis had an impact on spending, but
may result in a boost as previously planned projects are finally implemented.
A similar phenomenon occurred in the private sector. Early signs indicated that only around 30% of
companies were cutting budgets, while many firms in key IT verticals such as finance, telecoms and retail
were maintaining previously budgeted spending. Due to the financial crisis, financial services organisations'
IT budgets were cut, but vendors reported continued interest from some banks, which are now looking at IT
as a key element of their strategy for increased operational efficiencies. There have been an increasing
number of support and maintenance outsourcing contracts in the region. Regulatory compliance will also
continue to drive IT spending.
Drivers
The IT services market has become one of the most dynamic drivers of IT sector spending in Mexico and
the Latin American region as a whole. Local companies are trying to use computing resources more
effectively and integrate investments made in hardware and software. Demand to utilise cloud computing
should be a major opportunity, despite Mexico's relatively high broadband charges. Growth opportunities
reside even within the SME sector, where companies are trying to use computing resources more effectively
and integrate investments made in hardware and software.
Page 37
In the long term, the increasing number of

multinational corporations operating in Mexico is an
IT Services Market
important driver for spending. The global economic
2010-2017
slowdown stimulated new demand for outsourcing

from some US organisations. Outsourcing is also
becoming a spur to growth for the IT services sector,
80,000
with vendors increasingly adapting their focus to
60,000
take advantage of the opportunity. Earlier rates of
40,000
growth around 20% have slowed in later years, but
20
100,000
10
20,000
business process outsourcing still offers plenty of

2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012
2010
0
2011
potential.
IT Services MXNmn (LHS)

Cloud computing % of IT market (RHS)
One major demand driver will be organisations

looking for help to utilise efficiencies from cloud
computing such as SaaS and infrastructure-as-aService (IaaS). 2011 saw a wave of new cloud
service offerings from service providers such as Kio

Networks. Demand will grow as more companies enter the market and roll-out new cloud services such as
SaaS, IaaS and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS).
A major target segment for public cloud applications is SMEs, while vendors are focused on providing
private cloud services for corporations and other larger organisations. Particular areas of opportunity for
cloud computing include banking and retailing, as organisations in those fields look to save money on
hardware investments.
Outsourcing
Business process outsourcing (BPO) was estimated to have grown around 17% in 2012, although we
believe the years of double digit growth are now passed. BMI estimates the BPO market will pass
MXN30bn in 2013 and approach MXN40bn by 2017. In the past, the BPO market has overshadowed the IT
outsourcing sector, but the latter continues to gather momentum.
The main driver of the growth is Mexico's cost advantage in comparison with the US. Costs of outsourcing
back office and call centre processes are still around half those of comparable services in the US. Mexico
offers IT services vendors a number of other advantages, including proximity to the US and other regional
Page 38
markets. Because of the sizeable number of multinationals and large national companies, Mexico is
therefore already a significant and growing market for BPO and IT outsourcing. Mexico also has an
advantage over competitors in that its IT workforce of between 600-650,000 is far larger than countries such
as Brazil, which has an IT workforce of around 250,000. Moreover, Mexico is currently producing an
additional 65,000 IT professionals each year.
In this context, fast demand growth is expected, especially from corporate and government clients.
Currently, outsourcing is mainly used for non-mission critical applications, but infrastructure management
(from simply renting space at a datacentre through to higher end management services) will also be a
segment to watch. According to research, 62% of IT budgets currently go on products and services offered
by third parties. The government is also contributing to the growth, with an aggressive programme targeted
at attracting investment in the sector from foreign technology firms. The Economy Secretariat's PROSOFT
programme provides funding of up to 50% for investment projects, with the money coming from both the
federal and state governments.
IT Services End-User Analysis
Government
Government IT spending generally accounts for as much as 20% of total Mexican IT spending. Around a
third of government spending is accounted for by state and municipality level governments. Although the
public sector market is relatively small, the Mexican government has launched several programmes to
stimulate IT use throughout the economy. The e-Mexico programme will continue to drive spending, with
IT services one priority for resources. The global economic crisis had an inevitably negative impact on
government spending in the short term, but we expect it to grow in line with overall market spending over
our forecast period 2013-2017.
Financial Sector
Mexican banks and financial services companies are among some of the country's major IT spenders.
Consolidation, competition and compliance with new international guidelines are among factors that should
continue to encourage spending, despite the financial crisis. In recent years, several foreign-owned banks
have been operating in the market, spurring local competitors to ramp up spending on IT. With a wave of
hardware and infrastructure installations in the past few years, the focus is now shifting to software and
services, as companies look to enhance productivity and improve offerings to customers. Compliance and
risk management applications are among the top sellers, due in part to legislation tightening up corporate
Page 39
governance standards. Another trend is for banks of all sizes to outsource the hosting, management and
maintenance of software and hardware.
Healthcare
Mexican hospitals and doctors will provide an opportunity in both the public and private sectors. There is a
drive to improve efficiency in the private sector while, in the public sector, the government wants to
develop infrastructure and raise health sector standards. The healthcare market is estimated to be in the
region of US$20mn and is expected to grow rapidly.
Enterprises
Enterprise computer penetration is uneven, with more than 90% of firms in the agriculture industry and
construction sectors having computers, and the figure being considerably lower elsewhere. For software, the
financial sector is the largest overall end-user, followed by the manufacturing and retail sectors. Other fastgrowing sub-sectors include construction, transportation, and hotels and restaurants.
SMEs
SMEs comprise the majority of business in Mexico, at around 97%, and they will be an important driver of
IT investment during our forecast period. Smaller Mexican companies are expected to increase their
investment in IT, as larger firms put pressure on their downstream business partners to make advances in
this area. Lack of access to credit remains a problem. An important factor will be government programmes,
many of which emphasise boosting IT use by SMEs.
SMEs have also emerged as an important market opportunity for netbook vendors. The segment could
potentially form around 1mn unit sales in the next six months. The main driver of netbook purchases among
SMEs is their low price.
According to statistics from the economy ministry, more than 500,000 of the more than 4mn registered
SMEs have an internet domain, while around 27% do not even have internet access. Only about 10% of
SMEs sell on the internet, while about 40% use the internet for advertising. Most exporter SMEs largely
limited their computer use to emailing, messaging services and other communications technologies such as
voice over internet protocol (VoIP).
Page 40
Industry Trends And Developments

Government Spending
The majority of the MXN86.4bn 2011 budget for Mexico's Ministry of Communications and Transport was
expected to go towards its information and knowledge society division. According to the federally approved
budget, in the first 30 days of 2011, 52.3% of spending was allocated to information and knowledge society
ends. This means the information and knowledge society agency was due to receive more funding in that
month than state entities such as the federal telecoms regulator Cofetel and the postal agency Sepomex.
Under the e-Mexico programme, the government aims to promote universal access to knowledge and
education through the utilisation of IT and communications. IT services were to be prioritised, accounting
for some MXN2.25bn in January. Government IT spending had been budgeted to increase in 2010 by
around one-third in local currency terms. Key national government IT spending areas in 2010 included
solutions to improve tax collection efficiency and health services, promoting trade and enhancing security.
Government spending was expected to grow again in 2011 as public sector organisations rolled out eservices and support infrastructure.
A number of initiatives were launched as part of e-Mexico in 2012, including free Wi-Fi access in 144 parks
across 10 states as part of the Programa de Rescate de Espacios Pblicos (Public Spaces Rescue Programme
- PREP). December 2012 also saw the launch of the Bicentario satellite, with more advanced technologies
expected to be launched in 2013 and 2014.
E-Government
In 2011 the federal government continued to implement major e-government initiatives. In April Mexico's
tax administration body, the SAT, announced that it had implemented a plan to bring its federal tax
collection and investigation systems online. The new system, provided by Novell, will centrally manage the
identities for 9mn taxpayers and 35,000 employees.
SAT has also responded to a new government mandate requiring real-time approval of electronic invoices.
The new regulation became effective as of January 1 2011. Software vendors have seen an opportunity to
help businesses prepare to meet regulatory compliance for both senders and receivers of invoices. The
regulations also require companies to prepare outgoing invoices in a specific XML format, with both
Page 41
outgoing and incoming invoices to be externally validated, archived and stored. The regulations apply to all
invoices in excess of MXN2,000.
IT Industry Development
In May 2013, Mexico's IT industry association, AMITI, presented its 'Roadmap to 2025' ('Mapa de ruta
2025') for transforming Mexico via the use of IT. The presentation was part of AMITI's strategy to
encourage the government to include information and communications technology (ICT) as an integral part
of the National Development Plan (Plan Nacional de Desarollo; PND). The presentation revealed that ITC
is one of Mexico's most dynamic and competitive sectors, and has progressed from generating 2.6% of GDP
in 1998 to as much as 5.6% in 2010. It also predicted that the number of connected devices in the world will
shoot up from 12.5bn in 2012 to 50bn in 2025, and that the number of internet users will double to 5bn over
the same period.
Mexico is already the fourth largest provider of IT services globally, according to a study by market
research firm Gartner. The country's rise has been supported by government initiatives to attract domestic
and foreign investment in the ICT sector. In 2010 the government reportedly spent US$700mn to attract IT
services companies and multinationals to invest in Mexico. Meanwhile, the government and associated
industry bodies are also cooperating to increase the local IT skill base.
In 2012, Canieti - which is an industry association for the electronics, telecommunications and IT sectors with MXN400mn funding from the Economy Secretariat, launched an initiative to train more Mexican IT
professionals. The programme set a target of 17,000 Mexicans to receive IT-related certificates from local
training institutions in the current year. The IT sector is currently estimated to employ around 600,000
people in Mexico, and the country is one of the world's largest exporters of services after China, India and
the Philippines. The country's proximity to and free trade agreements with the US also help to place its IT
sector in a strong position.
The government is determined to take advantage of this by stimulating IT investment, particularly in

software. In a further example of that commitment, Mexico's economy ministry pledged MXN30mn
towards the construction of the IT cluster park (IIT) in Monterrey. The Nuevo Leon state capital had
originally looked to the Economy Secretary's PROSOFT programme for funding. Instead the financing is
from the federal government's SME fund. The park is to house software and IT firms, including SMEs.
Jalisco remains a major hub of the Mexican software industry. In 2010, Jalisco receive nearly 50%
(48.89%) of PROSOFT resources. The state's software industry has reported a double-digit annual growth
Page 42
rate and, with revenue of US$1,170mn in 2010, accounts for 24% of the total Mexican software industry by
turnover. Jalisco hosts 151 software developers as well as IBM.
Enterprise IT Adoption Measures
During the economic crisis in 2009, the government launched three initiatives designed to promote
technology adoption among enterprises. One initiative, dubbed Innovatec, earmarked MXN200mn (US
$13.8mn) for firms that increase production capacity through innovation and technology. A second
initiative, Innovapyme, will allocate MXN600mn for micro enterprises and SMEs that use technology to
grow their businesses. The third programme, Proinnova, is intended to channel additional funds to
businesses that incorporate technology into their operations.
Page 43
Regulatory Development
The Secretariat of the Economy is responsible for the competitiveness and growth agenda, of which
informatisation and IT sector development are key elements. There are branch offices in Mexico as well as
abroad. In 2001, as part of the National Development Plan, the government launched an e-Mexico
programme to focus on the internal IT market, developing an optimal regulatory environment and
increasing the use of IT within government. Some have found the plan rather ambitious, despite the 25-year
timetable. Specific objectives as outlined in the plan include:Driving the development of a national software
industry.
Increasing the different ways to access and optimise education through technology use.
Facilitating access to health information and e-health initiatives.
Promoting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and creating new opportunities for them.
Integrating all the different cultures and linguistic groups of Mexico.
Providing access for the disabled.
Guaranteeing that the legal framework promotes access, as well as the rights of Mexican citizens, and the
social and ethical values of the Mexican people.
Coordinating the different groups that hit the growth of technology (public and private).Promoting
appropriate funding of necessary activities.
Accelerating telecommunications and information technology penetration.
Background
While Brazil remains in pole position as the largest regional IT market, Mexico has a special significance
due to its proximity to North American markets and status as the country in the region where many foreign
vendors first launch brands.
Mexico has plenty of room for progress on a range of ICT indicators, including computer penetration and egovernment. IT spending as a percentage of GDP, at less than 2%, remains well below OECD levels, and an
increasing number of federal and state government initiatives are looking to stimulate more activity.
Since liberalisation in the early 1990s, which was given further stimulus through Mexico's North American
Free Trade Agreement accession, the IT sector has benefited from lower prices, increased investment and
more competition for protected domestic industries. However, until the country launched its 'e-Mexico'
programme in June 2001, the sector generally suffered from lack of a national commitment to increase the
Page 44
use of technology, and a lack of funding to realise this. Mexico's IT investment level remains low, at just
1.2% of GNP.
Under e-Mexico, there has been a more coordinated attempt to develop necessary infrastructure and
increase PC and internet usage. In 2011 the goal of the programme remained to widen access to education
and knowledge through utilisation of IT and communications, with a substantial information and knowledge
society budget administered through the Ministry of Communications and Transport. The government
sector also wants to take more advantage of IT, not only to reduce corruption, but also to increase efficiency
and be able to offer quality services. In 2011, the government introduced new e-invoicing regulations that
affect all Mexican companies.
Among the barriers to faster development, particularly for the internet, are the continued uncompetitive
nature of the telecommunications sector, which remains dominated by Telmex, and restrictions on foreign
investment in this sector. The domestic market has been on something of a roller coaster over the past
decade, with a dramatic contraction between 1990 and 1995, followed by double-digit growth for a few
years, before the global technology slowdown in 2002. Although several sectors of the market remained
fairly flat in 2003, faster growth resumed in 2004. Among the general economic factors holding back the
sector are low income levels and limited access to bank credit, for SMEs in particular.
Most global vendors are represented in the Mexican market, especially those from the US and Asia.
Computers are both domestically produced and imported, whereas the majority of software is imported.
More software is being customised for the Mexican market than previously.
In June 2013, President Enrique Pea Nieto approved a new law which targets phone, internet and TV
providers with over 50% market share, with a view to promoting greater competition in the telecoms
industry. This would reduce the power of dominant companies in the broadband industry, and help Mexico
to meet its target for universal access to the Internet.
During the signing, Pea Nieto identified six key points on which the success of the reform will be based:
Support fundamental rights; freedom of expression and access to information.
Modernise existing legislation in order to keep up with evolution in technology that characterises the
telecoms sector.
Strengthen government institutions through the creation of a new regulator Ifetel with greater powers to
combat monopolistic practices.
Promote competition through the removal of a 49% cap on foreign investment in satellite providers.
Page 45
Introduce policies that target universal access and digital inclusion.
Use the digital switch-over to free up 700MHz spectrum to be used for a public telecoms network that
will expand infrastructure.
The new law authorises the creation of a new autonomous regulatory authority, the Federal
Telecommunications Institute (Ifetel), which was due to be established by September 2013. Ifetel will be
imbued with more powers than incumbent organisation Cofetel, to classify as 'dominant' any operator with
over 50% market share. In practice, it will be given 180 days to carry out this classification process, which
means that the repercussions of the telecoms reform will not be relevant until at least 2014. Ifetel's powers
will allow it to impose punitive sanctions on any company that resists competition, which include
asymmetric termination rates, fines and even asset sales. Whether or not the targeted companies will submit
to Ifetel without costly legal disputes, remains to be seen, and we remain cautious until then.
Page 46
Competitive Landscape
International Companies
Table: IBM Mexico
Address
Alfonso Npoles Gandara 3111, Col. Parque corporativo de Pea Blanca, C.P. 01210, Mxico D.F.
Company
History
IBM was originally founded in Mexico 1927, and introduced the first supercomputer to the country. IBM
began its manufacturing operations in Guadalajara in 1975, and was a pioneer in the development of IT
in the country.
In 2003, IBM's Guadalajara plant entered a new phase when it became known as the IBM Technology
Campus. The facility houses the company's sales and outsourcing operations, and includes the
software development unit of IBM Global Business Services. In 2009, IBM announced an investment of
US$20mn in the IBM Technology Campus. Today, the Campus exports more than USD1mn of
hardware, software and services to all corners of the globe. All of IBM's magnetic and tape storage
solutions, as well as over 80% of its disk storage solutions, are made in the Campus, and then
exported around the world.
Services and
Products
Company
Developments
IBM's goal in Mexico is to bring innovative technology to business, government and academic sectors.
The company aims to offer its customers a combination of industry knowledge, consultancy, software,
applications, infrastructure and global alliances with specialist technology providers. These products
and services are available not only in Mexico City, but also in cities such as Guadalajara, Monterrey,
Quertaro, Puebla and beyond. In March 2011, IBM established its Innovation Centre in Mexico, as
part of a worldwide network of similar centres. The Innovation Centre connects local companies and
entrepreneurs with technical and business experts from around the world in order to promote growth
and support entry into new markets. The Centre also offers new Mexican companies free software and
R&D support, in order to help them develop and launch new business ideas. IBM also operates a
Services Command Centre in Mexico, which is the third of its type in Latin America. The centre offers
support to various local cl
IBM has teamed up with mid-market enterprise resource planning (ERP) vendor Epicor Software to
launch an enterprise offering for Mexican SMEs. The solution comprises an IBM server loaded with
Epicor ERP and configuration and deployment software, with both companies providing technical
support.
Smarter Cities Challenge: in 2011, Guadalajara was the first city in Mexico chosen by IBM to develop
it's a "smart city" plan, which aims to promote the modernisation of urban infrastructure. Working in
conjunction with the municipal authorities, IBM's made a number of recommendations such as
integrating various services, processes and agencies; the use of mapping and social networks to
connect better with people and companies; and the development of an integrated IT platform and a
system of e-government.
Source: BMI
Page 47
Table: SAP
Address
Edificio Plaza Reforma, Prolongacin Paseo de la Reforma 600 -- 2, Col. Pea Blanca Santa Fe,
Mxico D.F
Company
History
SAP Mexico and Central America was established in 1994, and specialises in enterprise application
software. The company is part of SAP Americas, which is itself a subsidiary of the German parent
company, SAP AG. The company''s most important revenue driver is the sale of software licences,
given that this often generates additional revenues such as support and consulting services.
Services and
Products
Parent company SAP AG is a global leader in enterprise application software, and also provides
services and support. Business areas include applications, analytics and mobile solutions. Key
products include SAP Business One, while a dynamic area of growth is Managed Cloud as a Service
(MCaaS).
Company
Developments
In Q313, SAP Mexico and Central America reported its 12th consecutive quarter of growth, with sales
of software and services up by as much as 17%. The company highlighted the strong performance of
its SME segment which includes the SAP Business One platform, whose sales shot up by 61%. This
was in fact the third consecutive quarter in which SAP Mexico and Central America had outperformed
other SAP subsidiaries in terms of sales of SAP Business One. The company's success is derived
partly from the fact that it has 45 specialist partners, with indirect sales rising by 19% and now
representing 40% of overall turnover. Its partnership system was boosted by the introduction of its
recently-introduced Managed Cloud as a Service (MCaaS) model. During Q313, SAP Mexico and
Central America reported that it had generated more than 109 new customers in various verticals,
including consumer, financial services and public sector. Its clients include DAPSA, Puebla town
council, Mabe, Kuo, Nacional Monte de Piedad and Financiera Independencia.
Source: BMI
Page 48
Local Companies
Table: Kio Networks
Address
8503 2600 (Mexico D.F.) 01 800 5 CALL KIO (interior)
Company History
Kio is a Mexican-owned company, founded in 2002, consisting of specialists in IT.

The company provides its customers with personalised IT services for missioncritical solutions. It prides itself on being the most reliable and innovative partner,
maintaining a high degree of operational flexibility.
Services and Products
Company Developments
Data centres: Kio operates 14 data centres in four technological campuses in

Mexico City, Quertaro, Panama and Guatemala.
Kio Solutions: Kio delivers total solutions in terms of equipment and
telecommunications.
Kio Hosting: offers hosting solutions with hardware and software equipment for
different platforms.
Kloud Kio: offers on-demand cloud infrastructure, with the hiring of virtual servers.
It encompasses cloud deployment for both private and public cloud models, and
includes ready-to-use platforms.
In June 2011 Kio Networks extended its cloud service portfolio with a new
Business-Process-as-a-Service (BPaaS) offering. The new offering, which involved
an investment by Kio of around US$50mn, are hosted at the company's data
centre in Mexico City, as well as in other centres.
In August 2013, Kio Networks launched two new data centres in Mexico City and
Quertaro. According to the company, the launch consolidated its leadership of
this sector in Latin America, giving it a total of more than 500,000 square feet of
campus technology.
In 2013, Kio Networks was awarded TIER IV classification by the global data centre
regulator, the Uptime Institute. It thereby became the only company in Mexico to
hold this classification.
Source: BMI
Page 49
Table: Dextra Technologies
Address
Ave. Hidalgo No. 922-1 Pte. Col. Mirador, C.P. 64070, Monterrey, N.L. Mexico
Company History
Dextra Technologies was founded in 1997 as a consulting company focused on

software technologies. Dextra provides services to a wide range of clients
throughout Mexico and North America, including both midmarket, as well as
Fortune 100 ranked companies. Dextra's headquarters and main development
centre are based in Monterrey, Mxico. Additional centres are located in
Guadalajara and Aguascalientes, as well as a sales office in Dallas, Texas.
Dextra operates as a technology partner for the development of its clients'

products, processes and operations, by supporting their software developments
with innovative tools and technologies and tools available. Its services are
focused on the following business lines: Enterprise, Engineering and Testing
through Outsourcing Services. Dextra makes use of Unified and Agile Software
methodologies
Dextra has developed strategic alliances with leading players in the IT industry
including OMAP (Texas Instruments), Microsoft, BlackBerry, Intel and Mexico IT.
Source: BMI
Table: Microsip
Address
email: www.microsip.com
Company History
Microsip is a Mexican software company which was established in Torren in the

state of Coahuila in 1986, and which has expanded across the country via a
franchise model. It now has regional offices in Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey,
Puebla and Mrida, which serve a total of 41 franchisees. Microsip's clients range
from small businesses to companies with more than 100 computers. The company
has also established agreements with a large number of public and private
universities, which receive free software from Microsip. The company makes much
of its Mexican roots, using the motto "El Software Confiable de Mxico"
(Dependable Mexican Software).
Microsip prides itself on being the most comprehensive enterprise resource

planning (ERP) partner for SMEs. The company develops software for a wide range
of uses, including accounting, banking, payroll, inventories and sales.
Microsip recently stated that it would continue to focus on local SMEs, and that it
expected revenue to grow by 20%.
Source: BMI
Page 50
Company Profile
Softtek
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Proximity to US market and creation of the 'nearshore' concept has propelled Softtek
to become a leader in global outsourcing.
It has expanded its original offerings to include state-of-the-art processes,

governance models and delivery from Europe and Asia.
Weaknesses
While it remains a leader in Mexican outsourcing, many firms favour companies in

India and other Asian countries, which offer cheaper services.
The US is its largest market - ongoing economic problems may weigh heavily on its
balance sheet as a result.
Opportunities
Strong foothold in the fast-growth Brazilian market. Expanded 28% y-o-y in 2010
according to news reports.
The IT sector in Latin America is set to outpace growth in other regions, which places
native Softtek in a strong position to capitalise on this.
Threats
The economic shift towards Asia may put Softtek at a cultural disadvantage when
compared with other IT firms in the region.
Security threats in Mexico are deterring investment in the IT sector, which may impact
the company's domestic business.
Company Overview
Softtek is a privately-owned Mexican company that provides process-driven IT

solutions to customers across North and South America, Europe and Asia. Its four main
business areas are Application Related Services, IT Support Services, Business Process
Outsourcing and SAP and Business Intelligence Software Licensing. It often acts as a
value-added reseller for SAP, Informatica, Cognos and Business Objects among others.
Softtek aims to reduce the complexity of IT services management, to optimise costs
and support globalisation of IT and BPO operations. Through creation of the nearshore
model, the company has become a leader in the outsourcing market, and currently this
is the main area of expansion for Softtek.
Page 51
Following a number of acquisitions, Softtek is one of the five largest Latin American
firms in the software industry. By 2007, it had around 5,000 staff. Revenue in 2007
was reported at US$260mn, up from US$175mn in 2006. About 40% of the company's
clients were from the financial sector, 45% from manufacturing and many of the rest
were from the high-tech sector. However, the fact that the company is privately owned
means that financial details are hard to come by.
Softtek claims several Fortune 500 companies as clients. The company is 100%
Mexican owned and the plan is to fuel its future growth through private investment or by
going to the capital markets. Areas of expertise include programming, development,
commercial and government banking, retirement funds, telecoms and the internet.
Softtek's main area of work is applications, with particular strength in SAP, but the
company also has a small BPO and infrastructure outsourcing business.
In February 2013, Softtek acquired Systech Integrators, a SAP channel and services
partner global IT solutions provider co-founded by an Indian American to make an entry
into India. This acquisition will further strengthen Softtek's SAP qualifications by adding
capabilities for cloud, mobility solutions as well as cross-process and industry domain
expertise to its solutions portfolio. The addition of Systech's SAP solutions expertise
and India delivery centre enhances Softtek's SAP capabilities through its existing
network of global delivery centres in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Spain and China.
The US is Softtek's largest market, but Brazil is the second largest, with 29% of
earnings coming from this market in H211 (latest data available). It reported that it
earned BRL170mn in Brazil in 2010, 29% growth on 2009.
Softtek is a privately owned company, and releases no financial or operational data.
Strategy
In 2013, BMI believes Softtek is likely to continue expanding in international markets, as

evidenced in its acquisition of Systech Integrators. On its website, it describes the
company vision to become a global leader of IT and business related process solutions
based on long-term relationships with clients. In 2011, it invested heavily in acquisitions,
and in news reports it has expressed a desire to acquire niche businesses that focus on
specialised areas of the market.
In a June 2011 report, Softtek identified financial services, government, consumption
and retail as the most promising areas for its Brazilian expansion, and as a result is
looking to make acquisitions in those sectors. The company planned on adding 1,200
employees in the country in 2011, and to invest in partnerships with universities and
training professionals.
Company History
Softtek was founded in 1982 as a small IT services company to help customers to

develop customised software and to manage IT infrastructure. Growth was bolstered by
the North America Free Trade Agreement of 1994, which helped expand business ties
between Mexico and the US. Mexico became an increasingly important centre for US
Page 52
companies looking for outsourcing partners, given the proximity to the US. Softtek was
able to capitalise on this, and enjoyed strong growth in its home market subsequently.
In 1995, it opened international offices in Brazil, which quickly became one of the
company's most important markets.
In 1997, Softtek expanded into Venezuela and Argentina. It also created the nearshore
concept - an outsourcing solution near a company's preliminary market, to share
benefits such as proximity, timezone, cultural affinity and ease of doing business. The
following year, it opened its first global delivery centre in Monterrey.
At the turn of the millennium, the company hired Blanca Trevio as president and CEO.
Trevio is one of the world's few female CEOs leading large multinational
corporations. In 2006, Softtek opened a centre in Galicia, Spain, to serve European
clients, joining its four development centres in Mexico and two in Brazil, which serve
Latin American clients. Softtek works closely with Mexican government organisations to
promote Mexico as a nearshore resource location. In December 2003, it bought
Ddemesis for an undisclosed sum. As part of the deal, GE continued to buy services
from Softtek until the end of 2006. The acquisition of Ddemesis enabled Softtek to
cover more areas and provide more complete support, in line with the company's
ambitions to become one of the most important offshore players by opening
development centres in low-cost countries close to major markets.
In 2007, the company acquired China-based IT United as its first venture into the Asian
market. It expanded its operations into Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Xi'an and Hong
Kong, and unveiled a global delivery centre there in 2009. The faculty is located in the
city of Wuxi in the Jiangsu province, and was a platform from which to gain a strong
foothold in the Chinese market.
In 2009, Softtek saw the economic and financial crisis affecting US companies as an
opportunity to enhance its position as a nearshore services provider. It mounted a major
push with its BPO unit, which it hoped would generate 10% of total sales in 2009. The
corresponding figure for 2007 was 5% and the BPO unit is growing at around 120% a
year. The company offers various types of BPO services, including procurement finance
and customer support. The company came into the BPO segment by acquiring
Ddemesis, the Mexican software division of General Electric.
Company Details
Softtek S.A.
Blvd Daz Ordaz km 333
Plaza Leona Seccin IV
Garza Garca, N.L.
Address line 4
66210
Mexico
Page 53
Tel: +52 81/8153 2000
Fax: 8153 2001
webmaster@softtek.com
www.softtek.com
Page 54
Sonda SA
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Strong track record with 37 years of growth and profitability, alongside solid financials
with low levels of financial debt.
Leading position in the IT services industry in Chile and relevant player in the largest
Latin American markets.
Weaknesses
70% of recurring revenues are from long-term contracts.
Lost major contract to develop Chile's national ID system in August 2011 due to lack
of necessary experience.
Corruption scandal in 2006 in relation to the Transantiago tender damaged Sonda's

reputation in its domestic market.
Opportunities
In Latin America IT is outpacing global growth - revenues and EBITDA rose at a 28%
compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2006-2011.
Threats
Sonda's expertise and foothold in the region bodes well for its future.
Many acquisitions are yet to be consolidated.
The company's portfolio of services is very wide and there are risks on nonspecialisation.
Company Overview
Founded in 1974, Sonda SA is Chile's largest information technology company, and its
largest markets are Brazil, Chile and Mexico. It specialises in three main areas:
platforms, IT services and applications, and has a presence in nine countries in Latin
America, with more than 1,000 cities covered. It has close to 11,000 employees in the
region, half of which work in Brazil.
Platforms
Platforms provided 39.0% of Sonda's revenues in 2012. Sonda is a multi-brand
integrator, working in partnership with global IT manufacturers such as Cisco, Autodesk
and EMC. It offers value solutions combining hardware, software and services. These
provide end-to-end solutions, alongside infrastructure and services related to this
infrastructure.
Page 55
IT Services
IT services are the key driver of Sonda's revenues, providing 52.8% in 2012, and this
share is expanding. IT services cover cloud computing, outsourcing, systems
integration, infrastructure support and datacentre services such as hosting and site
operation, among others. It developed an Enterprise Cloud Computing unit called
Qumulos. This is aimed at large and mid-sized companies and has four service
categories - virtual servers, virtual desktops, recovery in case of disasters and
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS).
Through its Business Processes Operation (BPO) services, Sonda takes over the
provision and operation of certain IT-heavy business processes.
In February 2011, Sonda was awarded a major IT outsourcing contract to modernise
Panama's public transportation payment system. On the country's Metrobs service,
clients are able to pay with a rechargeable card from February 2012. Sonda is
responsible for the financial administration and the delivery of the service to the enduser.
Applications
Applications provided 8.2% of Sonda revenues in 2012, and cover three main areas vertical market solutions, management solutions and applications services. Sonda is
SAP's main business partner in Latin America and many of the management solutions
Sonda offers are complementary solutions to SAP services.
The company made five acquisitions in 2010. These included Softeam, Telsinc and
Kaizen in Brazil, Nextira One in Mexico and Ceitech in Argentina.
Strategy
According to company president, Carlos Testolini, Sonda's main goal for 2012 is the
consolidation of its operations acquired in Brazil. The company's 2010 acquisitions as
well as Procwork (acquired in 2007) have been operating as Sonda Software, Sonda
Telsinc, Sonda Kaizen and Sonda Procwork since then. The company wants to bring all
companies under the Sonda IT banner. The company also revealed it has no major
plans to make further acquisitions in 2012.
Sonda also outlined plans to expand a channels programme, allowing certified partners
to deliver software to clients. This will be country specific and will focus on selling SAP
and Sonda's finance and tax software, and Sonda aims to generate 10% of sales from
such channels by the end of 2012.
There were also rumours that the Brazilian arm of Sonda would launch an IPO in 2012.
However, this was unconfirmed and still being discussed by the board of directors.
Company History
Founded in 1974, Sonda SA was founded in association with energy and forestry
company Copec. During the first 10 years of operation, it focused on the national
market. Significant contracts included representation of American manufacturer Digital
Page 56
Equipment Corporation, and an outsourcing contract with the Chilean National Savings
and Loans Association. In the 1980s, Sonda expanded internationally, gaining contracts
in Peru in 1984.
Also during this decade, Sonda won a number of contracts with the Chilean public
sector, undertaking its first large systems integration project for the Chilean Civil
Registry. It began banking projects in a number of Latin American countries, and a
traffic lights control system in Santiago and So Paulo.
Its first foray into mobile telephony was in the early nineties in Argentina, but similarly
this area of Sonda's business was rolled out in Brazil and Paraguay. In Q406 the
company listed 25% of its shares in the Chilean stock exchange.
In 2005, Sonda was awarded the contract for modernising the transport system in Chile,
Transantiago, which was due to be completed in October 2006. However, by February
2007, it still was far from completion, and questions were raised over how Sonda won
the contract. A company called Transporte Inteligente Multimodal (TIMM) filed a lawsuit
against Sonda, questioning the bidding process and claiming that the US$428mn
contract was exorbitant - the roll-out of the system would cost no more than US$40mn,
they argued, leaving Sonda with profits totalling almost US$400mn. TIMM also accused
Sonda of using confidential information and technology belonging to TIMM for its own
benefit, and sought US$390mn in damages. Following this, all contracts with the public
sector during the five years previously were evaluated.
Financial
Performance
In its 2012 financial year Sonda reported revenues of CLP681.2bn, led by its strong
performance in its home market. Chile accounted for 44.9% of the company's total
revenues, ahead of Brazil (33.7%) and Mexico (8.9%). Revenues rose in all segments
except Mexico, where revenues decreased 11.6% y-o-y. Total revenue grew 14.9%,
driven by strong growth in Sonda's non-core markets. EBITDA was CLP117.3bn, up
28% y-o-y, with all units showing growth. Despite a decrease in revenues, Mexico saw
a 10.5% y-o-y increase in EBITDA, reaching CLP9.6bn. Brazil saw a particularly strong
increase, improving its EBITDA by 50.3%. Net income attributable to the owners of the
company was CLP45.6bn, up 16.2% y-o-y.
IT services remains the largest revenue generating segment for Sonda, accounting for
52.8% of revenues in 2012, up from 56.1% in 2011. Applications growth was slight,
increasing less than 1% to CLP55.863bn. Platforms drove much of the company's
growth, generating a 29.8% growth rate and accounting for 39% of revenues, up
4.4pps.
Financial Data
Revenue (2010): CLP444.5bn

Revenue (2011): CLP593bn
Revenue (2012): CLP681bn
EBITDA (2010): CLP76.98bn
EBITDA (2011): CLP91.7bn
EBITDA (2012): CLP117bn
Page 57
Company Details
Net Income (2010): CLP33.55bn

Sonda S.A.
Teatinos 500
275v- correo 21
Santiago
Tel: 54-11/4331 7500
Fax: 4343 3561
corporatvio@sonda.com
www.sonda.com
Page 58
Regional Overview
The Americas IT markets can be broadly categorised into three groups. Leading the region are the highly
developed North American markets of the US and Canada, which have among the highest value IT markets
globally, as well as rapid adoption of emerging technologies. There is then a second group of middle
income emerging markets in Latin America with strong growth prospects, including Argentina, Brazil,
Chile and Mexico. Finally, the smaller less developed markets of Colombia, Peru and Venezuela are
playing catch-up due to low incomes and small domestic markets.
Tablet Opportunity Tempts Vendors
The diversity of markets in the region means they

have been impacted by trends in different ways. For
IT Spending Per Capita (US$)
instance, the shift in consumption away from
2013
relatively expensive desktops and notebooks to

tablets has limited increases in market value in North
America, especially as lower cost Android tablets
account for a larger share of sales in 2013 and 2014.
Meanwhile, low-cost Android tablets have been a
boom for vendors in Latin America where the lower
price points have deepened the market in cases
where consumers did not have sufficient income to
purchase traditional form factors.
Tablets have been a major trend in Latin America,
Source: BMI.
and the region is a focus for vendors that are looking

for growth to compensate for the declining desktop and notebook market. For instance, in October 2013 the
leading global chipset manufacturer, Intel, announced its target of double-digit growth in Latin America by
focusing on the tablet segment of the device market. Lower cost Android-based devices are proving popular
with consumers in the region, and Intel was supplying chips in 30 devices from 11 manufacturers in Q413,
which bodes well for its prospects.
There is considerable growth potential in Latin American markets where there is not only an upgrade/
replacement market as in North America - but also large pools of untapped first-time buyers. Household PC
penetration was below 50% in Argentina and Brazil in 2011, while in Mexico, Peru and Venezuela the
Page 59
figure was below 30%. By hitting lower price points compared to notebooks vendors can tap into this
potential in the short-to-medium term and offset the squeeze in the traditional form factor markets.
Policies And Infrastructure Should Accelerate Catch-Up
In the software and services segments there are indications that the least developed IT markets in Latin
America will begin to close the gap with the rest of the region over the duration of BMI's medium term
forecast. We expect the two major drivers of this trend will be strengthening of supporting infrastructure
and government policy.
The development of broadband infrastructure across the region will boost market growth by creating usecases for device ownership, incentivise enterprises to develop e-commerce and analytics capabilities, and
enable new products and services such as outsourcing and cloud computing that rely on connectivity. Our
forecasts envisage strong growth across the region, but the stand-out performers will be the less developed
markets as they close the infrastructure gap to more developed markets.
Supporting Infrastructure Strengthens IT Outlook

Americas Broadband Subscription Growth ('000)
e/f - BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI.
Page 60
A second driver is government policy, which was a key factor in the rapid development of East Asian IT
markets, but has traditionally been underutilised in the Americas (with the exception of the US and
Canada). In recent years this trend has changed and governments have been much more proactive in a range
of policy areas - from local production requirements for tablets in Brazil to attract investment in production
facilities, through to promotion of emerging technologies such as cloud computing and smart infrastructure.
In 2013 some of the most ambitious policy initiatives have come from the markets with the least developed
IT markets. For instance, in October 2013 the Peruvian government announced it would provide PEN50mn
(US$18mn) to launch the StartUp Peru program, aimed at boosting entrepreneurship in the country. The
concept is modelled on Chile's program StartUp Chile, which has experienced a great level of success in
fostering innovation among local technology companies.
Meanwhile, Colombia is benefitting from its Vive Digital project, which aims to build a national fibre-optic
network, through investment from cloud computing companies. In September 2013 IBM announced it was
investing US$17mn in a new data centre in Bogot, which followed the announcements from Level 3
Communications and Telefnica in March and June 2013 respectively that they would open data centres in
the country.
Government policies are assisting technological upgrade and increasing investment in Latin America's least
developed IT markets, however peers in the region are not standing still and as such we do not expect rapid
convergence over the medium term.
While wider economic uncertainty in Argentina undermines confidence, the government continues to
priorities the IT sector, driving development even in difficult times. The government most recently
announced large tax incentives to boost software development companies in the country as it attempts to
boost higher value services growth. Local consultancy Claves Informacin Competitiva estimates that
54% of Argentina's 3,600 IT companies produce hardware, 21% software and 25% produce IT services. The
government policies should help to improve this mix in favour of higher value higher margin software and
services.
BMI expects these policy initiatives that target higher value activities will boost market development,
however it should also be noted that the leading Latin American markets are deploying emerging
technologies such as smart infrastructure, and not simply playing catch-up. In September 2013 Microsoft
announced its first smart city deal in Brazil, as part of its CityNext initiative. The first contracts have been
agreed with the Minas Gerais state government, with 23 other contracts signed with government
Page 61
institutions. The contract follows on from the investments in smart infrastructure by Belo Horizonte and Rio
de Janeiro with IBM and other technology companies.
IT companies believe that these ventures could become multi-billion dollar businesses as they interconnect
areas such as energy and water; buildings; planning and infrastructure; transportation; public safety and
justice; tourism, recreation and culture; education; health and social services; and government
administration. BMI shares this positive outlook, as we argue that the potential for smart infrastructure
deployments, and associated investments in data analytics and real-time enterprise software, is strong over
the medium term. A relative lack of legacy infrastructure combined with rapidly expanding urban
population means that there should be demand from across the region that could even surpass the
investments in developed markets.
Page 62
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Demographic analysis is a key pillar of BMI's macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. Not only is
the total population of a country a key variable in consumer demand, but an understanding of the
demographic profile is key to understanding issues ranging from future population trends to productivity
growth and government spending requirements.
Population Pyramid
2013 (LHS) and 2013 v. 2050 (RHS)
Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Page 63
Population Indicators
Population, mn (LHS) and Life Expectancy, yrs (RHS)
The accompanying charts detail Mexico's population pyramid for 2013, the change in the structure of the
population between 2013 and 2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050, as well as life
expectancy. The tables show key datapoints from all of these charts, in addition to important metrics
including the dependency ratio and the urban/rural split.
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013e
2015f
2020f
Total
86,077
95,393
103,874
110,732
117,886
122,332
125,236
131,955
0-4 years
11,373
12,062
12,293
11,953
11,573
11,273
11,081
10,726
5-9 years
10,926
11,366
11,868
12,118
11,868
11,665
11,505
11,019
10-14 years
10,827
10,812
11,238
11,668
11,978
11,897
11,774
11,415
15-19 years
10,354
10,428
10,577
10,839
11,351
11,697
11,830
11,630
20-24 years
8,393
10,020
9,997
9,952
10,365
10,784
11,069
11,551
25-29 years
6,739
8,173
9,596
9,393
9,523
9,783
10,020
10,726
30-34 years
5,710
6,654
7,895
9,176
9,100
9,104
9,193
9,694
35-39 years
4,839
5,601
6,464
7,608
8,974
9,051
8,968
9,068
40-44 years
3,644
4,890
5,442
6,235
7,446
8,409
8,868
8,870
45-49 years
3,102
3,618
4,743
5,244
6,082
6,781
7,338
8,751
Page 64
Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) - Continued
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013e
2015f
2020f
50-54 years
2,482
3,100
3,487
4,562
5,081
5,555
5,961
7,205
55-59 years
2,183
2,351
2,957
3,321
4,373
4,725
4,936
5,806
60-64 years
1,807
1,990
2,201
2,770
3,121
3,762
4,186
4,742
65-69 years
1,400
1,584
1,813
2,001
2,533
2,719
2,922
3,941
70-74 years
917
1,203
1,384
1,576
1,750
2,074
2,290
2,662
75-79 years
682
695
986
1,126
1,298
1,392
1,499
1,985
80-84 years
404
490
507
722
838
929
992
1,165
85-89 years
205
235
286
298
441
494
526
638
90-94 years
72
92
104
128
140
184
216
265
95-99 years
17
24
30
34
44
46
50
80
100+ years
11
12
14
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013e
2015f
2020f
0-4 years
13.21
12.64
11.83
10.79
9.82
9.21
8.85
8.13
5-9 years
12.69
11.91
11.43
10.94
10.07
9.54
9.19
8.35
10-14 years
12.58
11.33
10.82
10.54
10.16
9.72
9.40
8.65
15-19 years
12.03
10.93
10.18
9.79
9.63
9.56
9.45
8.81
20-24 years
9.75
10.50
9.62
8.99
8.79
8.82
8.84
8.75
25-29 years
7.83
8.57
9.24
8.48
8.08
8.00
8.00
8.13
30-34 years
6.63
6.97
7.60
8.29
7.72
7.44
7.34
7.35
35-39 years
5.62
5.87
6.22
6.87
7.61
7.40
7.16
6.87
40-44 years
4.23
5.13
5.24
5.63
6.32
6.87
7.08
6.72
45-49 years
3.60
3.79
4.57
4.74
5.16
5.54
5.86
6.63
50-54 years
2.88
3.25
3.36
4.12
4.31
4.54
4.76
5.46
55-59 years
2.54
2.46
2.85
3.00
3.71
3.86
3.94
4.40
60-64 years
2.10
2.09
2.12
2.50
2.65
3.08
3.34
3.59
65-69 years
1.63
1.66
1.75
1.81
2.15
2.22
2.33
2.99
70-74 years
1.07
1.26
1.33
1.42
1.48
1.70
1.83
2.02
75-79 years
0.79
0.73
0.95
1.02
1.10
1.14
1.20
1.50
80-84 years
0.47
0.51
0.49
0.65
0.71
0.76
0.79
0.88
Page 65
Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) - Continued
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013e
2015f
2020f
85-89 years
0.24
0.25
0.28
0.27
0.37
0.40
0.42
0.48
90-94 years
0.08
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.12
0.15
0.17
0.20
95-99 years
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.06
100+ years
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013e
2015f
2020f
74.8
67.9
63.9
60.2
56.3
53.6
52.0
49.9
36,826
38,568
40,514
41,632
42,471
42,683
42,866
43,910
Active population, % of total
57.2
59.6
61.0
62.4
64.0
65.1
65.8
66.7
Active population, total, '000
49,251
56,825
63,359
69,100
75,415
79,650
82,369
88,045
67.3
60.3
55.9
51.7
47.0
43.7
41.7
37.7
33,126
34,240
35,399
35,739
35,419
34,834
34,360
33,159
7.5
7.6
8.1
8.5
9.4
9.9
10.3
12.2
3,700
4,328
5,115
5,893
7,053
7,848
8,506
10,751
Dependent ratio, % of total working

age
Dependent population, total, '000
Youth population, % of total working

age
Youth population, total, '000
Pensionable popn, % of total working
age
Pensionable popn, total, '000
f = BMI forecast; 1 0>15 plus 65+, as % of total working age population; 2 0>15 plus 65+; 3 15-64, as % of total
population; 4 15-64; 5 0>15, % of total working age population; 6 0>15; 7 65+, % of total working age population; 8 65+.
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013e
2015f
2020f
Urban popn. % of total
71.4
73.4
74.7
76.3
77.8
78.7
79.2
80.5
Rural popn. % of total
28.6
26.6
25.3
23.7
22.2
21.3
20.8
19.5
Urban popn, total, '000
61,475
69,988
77,616
84,497
91,745
96,236
99,223
106,224
Rural popn, total, '000
24,602
25,405
26,257
26,235
26,141
26,097
26,013
25,731
Page 66
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
BMI's industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling and
causal/econometric modelling. The precise form of model we use varies from industry to industry, in each
case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being
examined.
Common to our analysis of every industry, is the use of vector autoregressions. Vector autoregressions
allow us to forecast a variable using more than the variable's own history as explanatory information. For
example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply and
capacity.
When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable's own
history is often the most desirable method of analysis. Such single-variable analysis is called univariate
modelling. We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving
average model (ARMA).
In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic data or data quality
is poor. In such cases, we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for
analysis and forecasting.
BMI mainly uses OLS estimators and in order to avoid relying on subjective views and encourage the use of
objective views, BMI uses a 'general-to-specific' method. BMI mainly uses a linear model, but simple nonlinear models, such as the log-linear model, are used when necessary. During periods of 'industry shock', for
example poor weather conditions impeding agricultural output, dummy variables are used to determine the
level of impact.
Effective forecasting depends on appropriately selected regression models. BMI selects the best model
according to various different criteria and tests, including but not exclusive to:
R2 tests explanatory power; adjusted R2 takes degree of freedom into account
Testing the directional movement and magnitude of coefficients
Hypothesis testing to ensure coefficients are significant (normally t-test and/or P-value)
All results are assessed to alleviate issues related to auto-correlation and multi-collinearity
Page 67
BMI uses the selected best model to perform forecasting.
It must be remembered that human intervention plays a necessary and desirable role in all of BMI's industry
forecasting. Experience, expertise and knowledge of industry data and trends ensure that analysts spot
structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical
forecasting process would not.
Sector-Specific Methodology
A number of criteria drive our forecasts for each IT variable.
IT forecasting is complicated due to the fragmented nature of the market, with little transparency of vendor
data and low apparent agreement between many sets of figures in terms of market definition, base and
methodology. In addition, forecasts are affected by consideration of a variety of internal and external
political and economic factors.
Within best-practice techniques of time-series modelling, BMI's quarterly updated forecasts are improved
substantially by intimate knowledge of the prevailing features of each local market.
Individual variables taken into account in creating each forecast include:
Overall economic context, and GDP and demographic trends;
Underlying 'information society' trends;
Projected GDP share of industry;
Maturity of market structure;
Regulatory developments and government policies;
Developments in key client sectors such as telecommunications, banking and e-government;
Technological developments and diffusion rates;
Exogenous events.
Estimates are calculated using BMI's own macroeconomic and demographic forecasts.
Sources
Additional sources used in IT reports include national ministries and ICT regulatory bodies, national
industry associations, and international industry organisations such as the International Telecommunication
Page 68
Union (ITU), officially released company results and figures, and international and national industry news
agencies.
Risk Reward Rating Methodology

BMI's Risk Reward Ratings (RRR) provide a comparative regional ranking system evaluating the ease of
doing business and the industry-specific opportunities and limitations for potential investors in a given
market.
The RRR system divides into two distinct areas:
Rewards: Evaluation of sector's size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state
characteristics that may inhibit its development. This is further broken down into two sub categories:
Market Rewards (this is an industry specific category taking into account current industry size and
growth forecasts, the openness of market to new entrants and foreign investors, to provide an overall
score for potential returns for investors)
Country Rewards (this is a country specific category, and the score factors in favourable political and
economic conditions for the industry)
Risks: Evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the state's political/economic
profile that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time
period. This is further broken down into two sub categories:
Market Risks (this is an industry specific category whose score covers potential operational risks to
investors, regulatory issues inhibiting the industry, and the relative maturity of a market)
Country Risks (this is a country specific category in which political and economic instability,
unfavourable legislation and a poor overall business environment are evaluated to provide an overall
score).
We take a weighted average, combining market and country risks, or market and country rewards. These
two results in turn provide an overall Risk Reward Rating, which is used to create our regional ranking
system for the risks and rewards of involvement in a specific industry in a particular country.
For each category and sub-category, each state is scored out of 100 (100 being the best), with the overall
risk/reward rating a weighted average of the total score. Importantly, as most of the countries and territories
evaluated are considered by BMI to be 'emerging markets', our rating is revised on a quarterly basis. This
ensures that the rating draws on the latest information and data across our broad range of sources, and the
expertise of our analysts.
Page 69
BMI's approach in assessing the risk/reward balance for infrastructure industry investors globally is
fourfold:
First, we identify factors (in terms of current industry/country trends and forecast industry/country
growth) that represent opportunities to would-be investors.
Second, we identify country and industry-specific traits that pose or could pose operational risks to
would-be investors.
Third, we attempt, where possible, to identify objective indicators that may serve as proxies for issues/
trends to avoid subjectivity.
Finally, we use BMI's proprietary Country Risk Ratings (CRR) in a nuanced manner to ensure that only
the aspects most relevant to the infrastructure industry are incorporated. Overall, the system offers an
industry-leading, comparative insight into the opportunities/risks for companies across the globe.
Sector-Specific Methodology
In constructing these ratings, the following indicators have been used. Almost all indicators are objectively
based.
Table: It Risk Reward Rating Indicators
Indicator
Rationale
Rewards
Industry
IT market value, US$bn
Denotes breadth of IT market. Large markets score higher than smaller ones.
Sector value growth, %

year-on-year (y-o-y)
Denotes sector dynamism. Scores based on annual average growth over five-year forecast
period.
Government initiatives and Denotes spending boost provided by public sector, which can be a crucial determinant of
spending
sector development.
Hardware, % of total sales Denotes maturity of market. A high proportion of hardware sales, compared to services/
software, indicates that the overall IT market is immature.
Country
Urban-rural split
Urbanisation is used as a proxy for development. Predominantly rural states therefore score
lower.
GDP per capita, US$
A high GDP per capita supports long-term industry prospects.
Overall score for country rewards is also affected by the coverage of the power transmission network across the state.
Risks
Industry
Intellectual property (IP)
laws
Markets with fair and enforced IP regulations score higher than those with endemic
counterfeiting.
ICT policy
Subjective evaluation of official policy towards IT development, as enshrined in statute and

tax code.
Page 70
It Risk Reward Rating Indicators - Continued
Indicator
Rationale
Country
Short-term external risk
Rating from CRR evaluates the vulnerability to external shock, which is the principal cause
of economic crises. Such a crisis would cut investment.
Short-term financial risk
Rating from BMI's CRR, to denote risk of currency crisis and stability of banking sector. The
former would hit revenues in hard currency, while the latter would curtail investment funding.
Trade bureaucracy
Rating from CRR to denote ease of trading with the state.
Legal framework
Rating from CRR denotes the strength of legal institutions in each state - security of
investment can be a key risk in some emerging markets.
Bureaucracy
Rating from CRR denotes ease of conducting business in the state.
Corruption
Rating from CRR denotes the risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in
tendering/business operations affecting companies' ability to compete.
Source: BMI
Weighting
Given the number of indicators/datasets used, it would be wholly inappropriate to give all sub-components
equal weight. The following weighting has been adopted:
Table: Weighting Of Components
Component
Rewards
Weighting (%)
70 of which
- Industry
65
- Country
35
Risks to
30 of which
- Industry
40
- Country
60
Source: BMI
Page 71

BMI Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

BMI Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Q1 2014

Mexico Information Technology

Part of BMIs Industry Report & Forecasts Series

Business Monitor International

2013 Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 16

Macroeconomic Forecasts ............................................................................................... 22

Industry Risk Reward Ratings .......................................................................................... 27

Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 30

Industry Trends And Developments ................................................................................ 41

Local Companies ................................................................................................................................... 49

Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 51

Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 59

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 63

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

BMI Industry View

Headline Expenditure Projections

Key Trends And Developments

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

The second-largest domestic market in Latin America, with a significant multinational

Proximity to the US spurs development of outsourcing and IT services segment.

Low average incomes and large regional disparities.

Limited availability of credit, particularly for small businesses.

Uncompetitive telecommunications sector keeps connectivity prices high, limiting

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

SWOT Analysis - Continued

Economic growth heavily dependent on US economy.

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Wireline SWOT Analysis

Competition exists in the fixed-line sector; the alternative operators continue to

Broadband market showing strong growth with several operators present.

Size of Mexico makes rolling out fixed infrastructure difficult.

Bundled services have been instrumental in encouraging fixed-line retention, and

Number portability should allow alternative operators to continue decreasing Telmex's

New fibre-optic network to be built by Telefnica, Televisa and Megacable will

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Wireline SWOT Analysis - Continued

Mobile substitution will ultimately reduce demand for fixed services.

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

State officials cannot be re-elected, which makes them effectively unaccountable to

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Sound economic policy under the administration of former president, Felipe

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

The government's focus on improving infrastructure is likely to aid the overall

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Business Monitor International

Mexico Information Technology Report Q1 2014

Business Monitor International