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11. One problem that makes it difficult for policy makers to decide
whether the economy is operating at its potential output level is
identifying the natural rate of unemployment. There will always
be some level of unemployment existing in the economy, which
makes it difficult to determine whether the economy is operating
at its potential output. Since there is uncertainty in the potential
output level, policies that are made can often be incorrect. If the
potential output is overestimated, they introduce the expansionary
policy pushing aggregate output beyond its potential, fueling
higher prices in the long run but with no permanent reduction in
12. The short run phillips supply curve reflects the inverse relationship
between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. The
policy trade off for the short run Phillips supply curve is the
relationship between inflation and unemployment: inflation
increases, employment increases, thus decreasing unemployment
and vice-versa in the other direction. This trade off occurs
because, in the short run, adjustments made to prices and wages
are relatively low. In the long-run, there is no change in
unemployment since it stays at its value of the potential output.
This is a result of a greater adjustment in prices and wages.
Because of this the policy trade off that occurs is that a price
increase leads to an increase in inflation but would leave the
output of the economy the same and thus the unemployment rate.
The long run phillips supply curve location is determined on the xaxis by the unemployment rate. To experience a shift here the
potential output of the economy would have to change, thus
changing the unemployment rate. This could be caused by an
increase or decrease in the productions of raw materials such as
crop production or a drought leading to crop failure.