Europe centre of world, had all the power therefore decided other

regions affairs 1885

Europe tore itself apart and power moved to Moscow and
Washington
British PM lord Salisbury world divided into living and dying powers
Power struggles no longer just over European issues but over
markets and territories across the globe
Theory of 3 great powers (Russia and US two) led France, GB and
Germany to strive for power
Prevailing view of the world order stressed struggle, change,
competition, use of force, organisation of national resources to
enhance state power
Believed successful powers will be those who have the greatest
industrial base
Accurate predictions, world changed from multi-polar to bi-polar,
and industrial productivity became a vital component of national
strength.

The coming of the bipolar world needs us to consider 3 separate but

interacting levels of cause:

1.Changes in military-industrial productive base

2.Geopolitical, strategical, and sociocultural factors which influenced
individual responses to shifts in the world balances
3.Diplomatic and political changes which affected the chances of
success or failure in the great coalition wars of the twentieth century

The shifting balance of world forces

Thucydides what made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian

power and the fear which this caused in Sparta
In industrial expansion Britain and Germany grew, and the US
benefited from having both a populous and highly industrialised
society
The power of a nation-state by no means consists only of its armed
forces, but also in economic and technological resources.
National power has to be considered not only in itself, but relative to
the states foreign or imperial obligations; it has to be considered
relative to the power of other states
Italy after its unification seemed powerful, but its appearance
covered its weakness, the countrys economic retardation,

particularly the south, and a national illiteracy rate of 37.6%. Had

tiny output and gdp and depended on 88% of its energy needs from
British coal, an appalling strategical weakness. Could not go to war
with Britain and France due to navy being too weak to protect its
massive coast line. Others said better to have Italy as a partner than
as a foe, but the margin of benefit was not great.
Japan, absence of natural resources, isolated from the rest of the
world with a complex language. Determined not to be left behind,
scrapped feudal system, brought in new constitution based on
German one, established legal and educational systems. Brought in
modern banking, got help from British navy to build themselves a
fleet, and modernised the army. National slogan of rich country,
with strong army. Relied heavily on imports, short on capital so
needed to borrow, and never had enough. Rise to Great power
status aided by isolation, with no threats, and by a great national
morale and culture with the samurai military ethos, fiercely patriotic.
Close to bankruptcy by 1905, couldnt finance costs of RussoJapanese War. Regional great power.
Germany rise more immediate and had more impact as it impinged
directly upon the interests of Austria-Hungary and France, and
because of the sheer speed of German industrial growth in industry
and military/navy. Great education, skilled workers, scientists. Large
and quick scale of industrialisation following unification led to
aggressive desire for territorial expansion. Weakened by geography
and diplomacy. Desired more territory and felt it was its right as
Britain and Russia had middle-east, US the western hemisphere,
Japan had China, France had north-Africa. Problem was that it was
the one new-comer apart from the US that had the strength to
challenge the current order, but could only expand its borders at the
expense of powerful neighbours. An explosive combination.
Austria-Hungary was the weakest of the great powers, major
socioeconomic and ethnic diversities, and enormous disparity of
wealth across the territorially large empire. No national-cultural
cohesion to make up for these shortcomings when war came in
1914 the mobilisation order was given in 15 different languages.
Army problem was increasing difficulty to rely on the cooperation of
the Czech or Hungarian regiments in certain forces, or the Croats.
Economic growth did not allow it to catch up to other powers, had
lowest conscription and seemed to have so many foes that its
military had to plan for a variety of campaigns this was a
geographical and multi-national situation. Trying to act as a great
power with the resources of a second-rank one. Desperate efforts to
be strong on all fronts made it weak everywhere.

France had the advantage over Austria-Hungary that it had only one
national enemy Germany to concentrate its resources on. Politics
weakened the fabric of France and the loyalty and efficiency of the
army, needed 1911 nationalist revival to overcome these. While
France was a large-scale investor abroad, it got very little returns.
Problem was falling behind in head-to-head growth with Germany in
both army and industrialisation. If the mark of a great company is
the willing and able to take on any other, then France had fallen
behind Austria-Hungary.
Britain was imposing with the worlds largest empire, but after 187,
shift in balance of world forces eroded supremacy, due to change in
military and naval weights, and the spread of industrialisation. Also
had problems similar to A-H in trying to juggle problems of large,
diverse empire, and no matter the increase in navy it was not
enough to maintain supremacy due to others growth. Also decline in
supremacy in coal, textiles, and ironware hurt as their proportion of
world output diminished. British unprotected industry weakened by
imports sign that home market was becoming uncompetitive. Was
still probably the world number one, but problem was it was a
mature state with a built-in interest in preserving existing
arrangements or ensuring things changed slowly and peacefully. Led
to being dragged into war.
Russia, large area, large army, railways expanding quickly. Was
powerful and weak, while attracted investment, was labour-intensive
and technology poor, and industrialisation was created by foreign
investors, with resources being owned by foreigners. Heavy reliance
on foreign capital. Russia was strong in output, but was miles behind
in per capita efficiency, benefited from large population. Peasant
society. No health or education, problems with railway inadequacy
and difference between army wartime and peacetime locations.
Strengths were large-army, patriotism and sense of destiny in
certain classes of society. Could defeat A-H, Turkey, Japan but
German fight coming too soon.
US seemed to have all the economic advantages others had, and
none of the disadvantages. Had enormous domestic market,
industry, agriculture and communications all had great efficiency
and size. Large size led it into being pressured into diplomacy.
Increased navy after war with Spain, but spent less than 1% of GNP
on defence, due to isolation. Russia had larger army, but US
produced far more steel, electricity and industrial output. Became a
great power but not part of the great-power system. Very
comfortable in isolation. And as attentions turned to the North Sea
region pre-1914 people began to see the US as less of a factor in

international power balances than was though at the turn of the

century. This was proved wrong by WWI.

Alliances and the Drift to War 1890 -1914

Know the stuff generally, but the alliance system itself virtually
guaranteed that the war would not be swiftly decided, and meant in
turn that victory would go to the side whose combination of
military/naval and financial/industrial/technological resources were
the greatest.