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m odule II-1: En e rgy Resource s

I N T RO D U C T I O N
A comprehensive account of the worlds energy
resource endowment is essential for any longterm energy assessment. Energy resources exist
in different formssome exist as stocks and
so are exhaustible, others exist as flows and
are inexhaustible and a third form is based
on exhaustible stocks that can be leveraged to
resemble renewables. Most importantly, energy
resources evolve dynamically as a function of
human engineering ingenuity, driven by the
desire to supply affordable and convenient energy services. Although the term stocks suggests
finiteness (which is ultimately correct), the
accessible portion depends on technology
and on the future demand for that resource.
Resources not demanded by the market are
neutral stuff . Demand plus advances in technology and knowledge turn neutral stuff into
reserves that are replenished upon use by further
advances in technology and knowledge, enabling
humans to tap into resources previously beyond
reach. However, there will eventually be a limit
for stocks. In contrast, resources based on annually recurring flows are distinctly different from
stocks: harvested prudently, they are renewable.
Resources are not an end in themselves and
their attractiveness must be seen in the context
of societies energy service needs, of the technologies that convert resources into energy
services and of the economics associated with
their use. This chapter assesses whether longterm energy resource availability could impede
sustainable development and provides a
comprehensive account of the worlds energy
resource endowment based on a dynamic
technology concept.

DEFINITIONS
Resources are defined by the World Energy
Council as the occurrences of material in recognizable form. The location, quantity, grade,
geological characteristics and continuity of
resources are known, estimated or interpreted
from specific geological evidence and knowledge. For oil, the term resources simply
connotes the amount of oil in the ground.
Undiscovered resources are what remains and,
by definition, one can only speculate on their
existence.
g Reserves represent a portion of resources;
British Petroleum notes that proven reserves
or oil are quantities that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable
certainty can be recovered in the future from
known reservoirs under existing economic and
operating conditions. Other common terms
include probable reserves, indicated reserves,
and inferred reservesthat is, hydrocarbon
occurrences that do not meet the criteria of
proven reserves. Ultimately recoverable resources
are the sum of identified reserves and the
possibly recoverable fraction of undiscovered
resources and generally also include production
to date. Sometimes, the term resource is used to
indicate simply the portion of the resource base
(the total occurrences) that doesnt include
reserves (see Figure 4 below, for example).
There is also a difference between conventional
and unconventional occurrences (oil shale, tar
sands, coalbed methane, clathrates, uranium in
black shale or dissolved in sea water), especially
the rate at which unconventional resources can
be converted into conventional reserves.
g

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F IG U R E 1 - PRINCIPLES OF RESOURCE CLA S S I F I CATION

I d e ntified resources

Undiscove red resource s

Demonstrate d
Measured

I n fe rred

I n d i cated

Probability range
Hy po t h e t i cal

Spe c u l at i ve

Economic

Resource s

Resource s

Sub-economic

Resource s

Resources

Other
oc c u re n ces

Un co nve ntional and low - g rade mate rials

I n c reasing geolog i cal assurance

S O U RC E : WEA Fi g u re 5.1, based on Mc Ke l vey, 1 9 6 7

The McKelvey box presents resource

categories in a matrix with increasing degrees
of geological assurance and economic feasibility
(Figure 1).
g Figure 2 shows the years of resources
available under a business-as-usual energy
growth scenario for the three main fossil fuels.
g

F IG U R E 2

YEARS LEFT OF OIL, NATURAL GAS & COA L

RESOURCES UNDER BUSINESS-AS-USUA L
GROWTH IN DEMAND
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

Oil
S O U RC E : WEA Table 1

Nat u ral Gas

Co a l

OIL RESERVES AND RESOURCES

Oil is subject to controversy on estimates of
ultimately recoverable reserves. Historically,
world oil reserves have experienced small but
steady increases, which implies that the discovery or delineation of new reserves has at least
kept pace with production. However, many
geologists focus on the concept of a quasi-fixed
stock of hydrocarbon occurrences that can only
decrease once production commences.
g Proven oil reserves by region as of December
2000 are shown in Figure 3.
g The vast amounts of unconventional oil
occurrences include oil shale, heavy crude oil
and tar sands. Unconventional oil is already
economically viable to exploit in some places,
so some are defined as reserves.
g New technologies for exploring and extracting
oil have lowered exploration, development
and production costs while expanding the oil
resource base. However, two developments:
increasing energy demand and the increased
g

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FI G U R E 3

cash flows required to sustain enhanced

investment in initial large scale exploitation
of unconventional
World Energy
oil and gas will likely
Assessment,
put upward pressure
pages 139-144
on prices.

WORLD OIL RESERVES BY REGION

Oil Reserve s, End-2000
800.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0

OTHER FOSSIL FUELS

Maintaining adequate national (or regional)
strategic reserves to address any transient
interruption, shortages or unpredictably high
demand.
g Proven reserves of gas are comparable to those
of oil, high relative to production, but are much
more dependent than oil on large investments
in transmission and distribution infrastructure.
g There are also several types of unconventional
gas with significant resource potential.
g Coal resources and reserves exceed those
of oil and gas by a substantial amount, but the
fact that coal also contains a significantly higher
carbon content
World Energy
(see Figure 4) raises
Assessment,
concerns about its
pages 144-150
continued use for
climate stability.

UAE
Saudi
Ara b i a
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran

S O U RC E : Oil & Gas Jo u rn a l , 12/28/00

R E N EWABLE RESOURC E S
Renewable energy sources that use indigenous
resources have a vast potential to provide energy
services with zero or almost zero emissions
of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases
(see Figure 5). In broad terms, renewable sources
can be distinguished as follows:
g Biomass energy (bioenergy resources include:
residues and wastes, energy crops and natural
vegetation). The world currently derives approximately 11 percent of its energy from biomass.
In developing countries, this is roughly 35 percent. Sustainably produced biomass energy
using advanced technologies can play a major

FI G U R E 4

AG G R E G ATE FOSSIL ENERGY OCCURRENCES

Co n s u m p t i o n
1860-1998

Ty pe

Resource s a

Reserve s

1998

R e s o u rce base b

Additional
occurre n ce s

Exajoules G i g atonnes Exajoules Gigato n n e s Exajoules G i g atonnes Ex a j o u l e s G i g atonnes Exajoules G i g atonnes Ex a j o u l e s G i g atonnes
of ca r b o n
of carbon
of carbon
of carbon
of carbon
of ca r b o n

Oil
Co nve nt i o n a l
Un conve ntional

4,854
285

97
6

132.7
9.2

2.65
0.18

6,004
5,108

120
102

6,017
15,240

121
305

12,074
20,348

241
407

Nat u ral gasc

Conve ntional
Un co nve ntional

2,346
33

36
1

80.2
4.2

1.23
0.06

5,454
9,424

83
144

11,113
23,814

170
364

16,567
33,238

253
509

Co a l

5,990

155

92.2

2.40

20,666

533 179,000

4,618 199,666

5,151

Total

13,508

294

319.3

6.53

46,655

983 235,238

5,579 281,893

6,562

45,000

914

930,000 14,176
n.a.
975,000 15.090

S O U RC E : WEA Fi g u re 5.7

a. Reserved to be discovered or resources to be developed as reserves. b. The sum of reserves and resources. c. Includes natural gas liquids.
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World Energy
Assessment,
pages 152-168

role in expanding the

energy infrastructure
without contributing
to greenhouse gas

emissions.
Wind energy (moving air masses driven
by solar energy). The theoretical potential for
electricity generation from wind power is nearly
500,000 terawatt-hoursor 6000 exajoules
per year (roughly 35 times current global electricity consumption), about one-tenth of which
can be realistically harvested. Wind is an intermittent resource, which means that it can be
used only when it is available.
g Direct use of solar energy (for heating
and electricity production). Solar energy has
immense theoretical potential. The amount
of radiation intercepted by Earth is more than
three orders of magnitude higher than annual
global energy use. However, the actual potential
of solar energy is lower because of diurnal,
seasonal, geographic variations and siting limitations. Also, there are technological, economic
and social constraints on the penetration of
solar energy.
g H yd ro p ow e r. H yd ropower energy sys t e m s
conve rt the power of flowing water into ro t ational mech a n i cal power or electri c i ty. While
large hydro p ower systems are a highly mature
technology, there are numerous adverse upstream
and downstream effects associated with larges cale dams, s u ch as soil and forest loss, nutrient
loss, silting, increased incidence of malaria due
to stagnant water and large-scale displacement
of people. Pico-, m i c ro- and mini-hyd ro dams
impose a smaller socio-ecological footpri n t .
g Geothermal energy (from heat stored in ro ck by
the natural heat flow of the Earth). Geothermal
energy resources occur as dry steam or hot water
and can be used for either power generation or
g

thermal processes. The use of geothermal energy

is a mature technology that is fully commercial.
The natural energy flows through the Earths
ecosystem are immense: theoretically, they could
produce many times more than current energy
consumption. For example, solar power plants
on 1 percent of the worlds desert area would
generate the worlds entire electricity demand
today. Currently, renewable energy sources
supply 14 percent of the total world energy
demand, primarily through traditional biomass
for cooking and heating (especially in rural areas
of developing countries) and large-scale
hydropower, which supplies 20 percent of
global electricity.
FI G U R E 5

S U M M A RY OF RENEWABLE RESOURCE BASE

Resource
Hydropower
Biomass energy

Current
usea

Technical
potential

Th e o retical
pote nt i a l

50

147

50

>276

2,900

>1,575

3,900,000

640

6,000

Solar energy

0.1

Wind Energy

0.12

Geothermal energy

0.6

5,000

140,000,000

Ocean energy

n.e.

n.e.

7,400

>7,600

>144,000,000

Total

56

S O U RC E : WEA Table 5.26

n.e. Not Estimated.

a. The elect r i c i typart of curre nt use is co nverted to primary energy with an average factor of 0.385.

CO N C LU S I O N S
Globally, energy resources are plentiful and are
unlikely to constrain sustainable development
even beyond the 21st century.
g The economic and environmental performance
of fossil, nuclear and renewable conversion
technologiesfrom resource extraction to waste
disposalwill determine the extent to which an
g

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energy resource can be considered sustainable.

g Even after local environmental and energy
security issues are addressed, continued dependence on fossil fuels may still be ultimately
unsustainable from the standpoint of the
increased greenhouse gas emissions that are
likely to result, unless there are commercially
viable solutions for decarbonisation or greenhouse gas abatement and subsequent carbon
dioxide disposal to avoid accumulation of these
gases in the atmosphere.
g Energy resources are not evenly distributed
across the globe. Relative economic and
environmental aspects make up the demandpull for the development of future energy
resources.

Although renewables are more evenly

distributed and accessible than fossil and nuclear
resources, their economic potential is affected
by land-use constraints, variation of availability
as a function of latitude (solar power) and location (wind power and hydroelectricity), solar
irradiation and water and soil quality (biomass).
g A transition to sustainable energy systems that
continue to rely predominantly on fossil fuels
will depend on the development and commercialization of fossil technologies that do not
close their fuel cycle through the high-cost
production. Alternatively, the transition will
more than likely require determined policies
to move away from fossil fuels.
g

ADDITIONAL RESOURC E S
19th WEC Survey of Energy Reources, World Energy Council, 2001.
http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/ser/overview.asp
World Petroleum Assessment 2000, United States Geological Service.
http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/DDS-60/.
USGS estimates of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids available from different provinces of the world.
Energy Resources Section, UNESCAP.
http://www.unescap.org/enrd/energy/
A number of publications and activities related to energy resources in the Asia and Pacific Region.
International Renewable Energy Organizations, Programs, and Information Sources,
US Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA), UNEP and GEF.
http://swera.unep.net/.
SWERA provides information on solar and wind energy in 13 developing countries to energy planners.
It is developing tools such as regional and national maps of solar and wind energy resources, and a
geographical information system (GIS) interface.

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