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VALUE CHAIN
Opportunities to improve prots
Spring 2011
STRATEGIC PARTNER
MAJOR PARTNERS
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GENERAL PARTNERS
COMPOSITE
TECHNOLOGY
C O R P O R A T I O N
ADVISORS
About
the
China
Greentech
Initiative
Founded
in
2008,
the
China
Greentech
Initiative
(CGTI)
Partner
Program
has
rapidly
grown
to
become
the
only
China-international
collaboration
platform
of
100+
organizations,
focused
on
identifying,
developing
and
promoting
green
technology
solutions
in
China.
Partnering
organizations
are
technology
buyers
and
sellers,
service
providers,
investors,
policy
makers
and
influencers.
Sector
tracks
addressed
during
the
2011
CGTI
Partner
Program
include
Cleaner
Conventional
Energy,
Renewable
Energy,
Electric
Power
Infrastructure,
Green
Building,
Cleaner
Transportation
and
Clean
Water.
Built
on
two
cornerstones,
strategic
market
research
and
a
community
of
300+
industry
experts,
CGTI
provides
participating
organizations
with
three
core
benefits:
world
class
market
insights
that
enable
better
decisions,
meaningful
relationships
that
lead
to
business
opportunities,
and
thought
leadership
and
education
that
position
participants
as
leaders
in
Chinas
greentech
markets.
In
addition
to
the
Partner
Program,
CGTI
offers
Advisory
Services,
conducts
briefings
and
publishes
public
content,
including
White
Papers
and
the
annual
China
Greentech
Report.
The
flagship
China
Greentech
Report,
released
at
the
World
Economic
Forum,
together
with
the
China
Greentech
Report
2011,
have
more
than
60,000
copies
in
use
globally
and
have
helped
establish
CGTI
as
the
authority
on
Chinas
ever
evolving
greentech
markets.
The
China
Greentech
Initiative
defines
Renewable
Energy
as
energy
produced
from
sources
that
are
naturally
replenishing,
such
as
sunlight,
wind,
waves,
underground
heat,
surface
water
flows
and
biomass.
Of
these,
CGTI
focuses
on
the
markets
and
technology
for
wind
power,
solar
energy
and
bioenergy
(including
power,
cooling
and
heating).
Executive
Summary
Given
current
challenges
in
world
solar
markets,
Chinas
solar
photovoltaic
(PV)
producers
seek
opportunities
to
reduce
costs
and
preserve
gross
margins
through
vertical
integration
and
industry
consolidation.
Solar
producers
face
uncertain
times:
While
global
solar
PV
markets
may
continue
to
grow,
rapidly
falling
prices,
unstable
subsidy
schemes
and
module
oversupply
result
in
falling
margins
across
the
value
chain.
Low-cost
Chinese
producers
are
raising
production
capacity
to
new
records,
in
turn
driving
down
selling
prices
and
margins.
At
the
same
time,
as
domestic
competition
increases,
the
pressure
to
increase
profits
and
market
share
has
intensified.
Chinas
historically
fragmented
solar
industry,
with
hundreds
of
small
players
across
the
value
chain,
are
looking
for
strategies
to
strengthen
financial
performance,
including
vertical
integration
and
capacity
expansion,
which
is
already
widespread,
and
industry
consolidation.
While
the
number
of
manufacturers
in
China
may
not
decline
in
the
short-term,
stakeholders
should
expect
the
top-tier
players,
with
strong
cost
advantages,
to
continue
to
grow
in
size
and
market
share.
Thus
far,
however,
vertical
integration
and
expanding
production
capacity
do
not
appear
to
guarantee
profitability.
Companies
must
also
seek
innovative
strategies
and
partnerships
to
stay
ahead
of
the
market.
Polysilicon
Ingots
Wafers
Cells
Modules
Systems
Projects
The
White
Paper
does
not
cover
thin
film
PV
or
concentrated
PV
due
to
their
relatively
small
current
market
share
in
China.
The
White
Paper
begins
with
an
overview
of
global
solar
market
conditions,
and
then
explores
opportunities
and
trends
for
vertical
integration
and
industry
consolidation
(horizontal
integration).
Industry
Consolidation
(horizontal
integration)
occurs
when
the
number
of
companies
involved
declines
as
successful
companies
grow
in
size
and
smaller
companies
are
either
bought
out
or
go
out
of
business.
Consolidation
is
particularly
common
for
high-tech
industries
with
high
barriers
to
entry,
who
focus
on
the
importance
of
reaching
economies
of
scale
in
production.
Many
experts
anticipate
consolidation
in
Chinas
solar
industry,
particularly
in
the
commoditized
module
segment
of
the
value
chain,
which
currently
has
hundreds
of
competitors.
Vertical
Integration
occurs
when
companies
acquire
new
production
or
service
capabilities
along
the
value
chain,
in
either
an
upstream
or
downstream
manner
relative
to
their
core
competency.
For
example,
a
company
that
produces
solar
cells
may
vertically
integrate
upstream
by
producing
polysilicon,
or
integrate
downstream
by
producing
solar
modules
or
systems.
Market
Context
Subsidy
cuts
slow
growth
in
European
markets,
while
solar
PV
demand
grows
in
non-
European
markets
Following
a
year
of
robust
global
growth
in
2010
with
16.6
GW
of
installed
capacity,
solar
PV
continued
its
rapid
expansion
in
2011.
Established
European
markets,
such
as
Germany
and
Italy,
continued
to
account
for
the
majority
of
early
2011
installations
representing
up
to
60%
of
market
demand.1
Due
to
recent
subsidy
cuts,
however,
total
demand
in
Europe
is
falling.
Italy,
for
example,
has
made
capped
funding
for
large-scale
installations,
reduced
feed-in
tariffs
beginning
in
2012,
and
removed
all
tax
breaks
for
solar
production
and
installation.
At
the
beginning
of
2011,
uncertainties
surrounding
these
new
policies
resulted
in
a
dramatic
slow-down
in
installations
and
an
accumulating
module
inventory
in
Italy
reaching
nearly
3
GW.2
Feed-in
tariffs
have
also
been
cut
in
the
Czech
Republic,
France
and
Spain.
The
impact
of
subsidy
cuts
may
be
less
drastic
than
feared
in
the
worlds
largest
PV
market,
Germany,
following
the
decision
to
decommission
all
nuclear
power
plants
by
2022.
Germany
currently
obtains
23%
of
electricity
from
nuclear
power,
leaving
room
for
new
renewable
energy
capacity
development.3
German
installations,
however,
declined
32%
from
2010
as
a
result
of
a
13%
cut
in
the
countrys
favorable
feed-in
tariff,
potentially
due
to
falling
PV
equipment
prices.4
Global
solar
PV
demand,
while
recently
concentrated
in
Europe,
is
diversifying
as
a
result
of
the
growing
interest
in
low-carbon
energy
sources,
concerns
raised
by
the
March
2011
nuclear
disaster
in
Japan,
and
rapidly
dropping
module
prices,
which
has
accelerated
the
discussion
of
grid-parity
cost
for
solar.
State-based
incentives
in
California,
New
Jersey
and
Texas
may
make
the
U.S.
the
fastest
growing
market,
with
241%
growth
in
2010.5
Other
incentives
and
policy
mandates
are
driving
demand
in
other
new
markets.
For
example,
Ontario,
Canada
has
introduced
a
feed-in
tariff
for
projects
under
10
MW,
Japan
has
increased
emphasis
on
solar
development
through
a
residential
feed-in
tariff
scheme,
and
India
has
established
a
20
GW
installation
target
for
2020.
Long
a
major
exporter
of
solar
modules,
China
looks
set
to
develop
its
domestic
market
and
become
one
of
Asias
largest
solar
energy
producers.
By
the
end
of
2010,
China
had
860
MW
of
installed
solar
power
capacity,
whereas
it
produced
nearly
8
GW
of
modules
annually.
This
imbalance
has
left
Chinas
solar
producers
vulnerable
to
fluctuations
in
overseas
markets.
The
government,
which
supports
domestic
PV
manufacturers,
has
recognized
this
and
is
working
to
ensure
a
continued
demand
for
domestically-produced
modules
through
the
creation
of
feed-in-tariff
policies.
This
is
in-line
with
the
central
governments
focus
on
reducing
carbon
emissions
and
improving
environmental
conditions,
as
emphasized
in
the
current
12th
Five-Year
Plan.
The
plan,
which
lays
out
Chinas
policy
priorities
for
the
1
European
Photovoltaic
Industry
Association
(EPIA),
Global
market
outlook
for
photovoltaics
until
2015,
May,
2011
2
Osborne,
Mark,
Italy
has
a
new
FiT,
PV-Tech,
May
6,
2011,
www.pv-tech.org
3
The
Guardian,
Germany
pledges
nuclear
shutdown
by
2022,
May
30,
2011,
www.guardian.co.uk
4
Hughes,
Emma,
Germany
Feed-in
Tariffs,
PV-Tech,
Dec.
13,
2010,
www.pv-tech.org
5
Solar
Energy
Industries
Association
(SEIA),
Solar
Policies,
www.seia.org,
(accessed
on
May
9,
2011)
2011-2015
period,
targets
10
GW
of
solar
power
by
2015
and
50
GW
by
2020.6
Exactly
how
China
will
achieve
these
ambitious
targets
remains
to
be
seen,
but
given
the
rapid
growth
experienced
in
the
wind
industry,
few
doubt
Chinas
ability
to
meet
its
targets.7
Leading
Chinese
players
JA
Solar
and
LDK
Solar
exemplify
this
trend.
LDK
Solar
plans
to
more
than
double
its
wafer
production
capacity
from
2009
levels
of
1.8
GW
to
4
GW
by
the
end
of
2011,
while
JA
Solar
hopes
to
reach
2.2
GW
of
solar
cell
and
module
capacity
by
the
beginning
of
2012.10
6
EPIA,
Global
market
outlook
for
photovoltaics
until
2015,
May,
2011
China
Greentech
Initiative
(CGTI)
Partner
interviews
8
EPIA,
Global
market
outlook
for
photovoltaics
until
2015,
May,
2011
9
Ibid.
10
CGTI
analysis
7
This
rapid
acceleration
has
had
multiple
effects
on
the
industry.
The
first
is
a
significant
decline
in
average
selling
prices
(ASPs)
globally.
Between
May
2010
and
February
2011,
ASPs
dropped
by
16%
on
average.
Since
the
beginning
of
2011,
cell
and
module
ASPs
have
fallen
by
a
staggering
30%.11
Crystalline
silicon
(c-Si)
solar
cell
ASPs
are
approaching
the
US$
1/W
mark,
their
lowest
price
to
date,
with
modules
dipping
below
US$
1.50/W.12
The
second
effect
is
a
growing
fear
of
oversupply
spreading
throughout
the
industry,
particularly
as
European
countries
scale
back
the
costliest
subsidy
programs.
The
degree
of
overcapacity
that
will
be
created
is
in
dispute,
depending
on
the
ability
of
manufacturers
to
trim
back
expansion
plans
or
the
variable
effects
of
newly-introduced
subsidies
on
the
market.
At
any
rate,
oversupply
fears
could
accelerate
further
declines
in
ASPs,
which
would
hurt
the
financial
performance
of
smaller,
lower-tier
producers.13
Falling
module
selling
prices
squeeze
profits
across
the
value
chain
Falling
ASPs,
caused
by
capacity
expansions,
as
well
as
technology
and
manufacturing
improvements
and
competition
from
low-cost
producers,
places
pressure
on
gross
profits
across
the
value
chain.
Module
producers,
in
particular,
have
experienced
substantial
declines.
Some
analysts
estimate
gross
profit
declines
of
84%
between
2008
and
the
end
of
2011
for
module
producers
relative
to
declines
of
64%
in
aggregate
profits
across
the
value
chain
during
the
same
period.14
While
wafer
producers
currently
boast
higher
profits
than
cell
and
module
producers,
this
segment
remains
vulnerable.
Upstream
polysilicon
producers,
however,
have
maintained
the
highest
gross
margins
of
roughly
50%.
In
this
context
of
increasing
competition
and
uncertain
demand,
solar
PV
producers
must
look
for
new
strategies
to
ensure
profitability
and
preserve
gross
margins.
One
of
the
most
popular
strategies
is
vertical
integration,
which
has
become
the
mantra
of
many
producers,
particularly
in
China.
Many
analysts
also
expect
to
see
the
initiation
of
industry
consolidation
given
the
high
number
of
independent
companies
in
downstream
module
and
project
development
segments.
The
following
sections
of
this
White
Paper
explore
how
these
strategies
and
trends
are
playing
out,
and
what
impacts
they
may
have
on
key
producers
across
the
value
chain.
11
Seeking
Alpha,
ReneSola
could
face
higher
than
expected
silicon
wafer
price
pressure
in
Q2,
Jun.
12,
2011,
www.seekingalpha.com
12
Buemi,
David,
Update:
Continuing
ASP
Decline
in
the
PV
Supply
Chain,
The
PV
Advocate,
Apr.
29,
2011,
www.davebuemi.com
13
Williams,
Andrew,
Growing
Fears
of
PV
Module
Oversupply
in
2011,
Renewable
Energy
World,
Mar.
3,
2011,
www.renewableenergyworld.com
14
Deutsche
Bank,
Solar
Industry
2011
Outlook,
Jan.
5,
2011
15
CGTI
analysis
Ibid.
17
CGTI
interviews
16
Fluctuating
demand
driven
by
incentive
policies,
barriers
to
entry
in
upstream
portions
of
the
value
chain,
and
production
bottlenecks
in
a
rapidly
expanding
market
have
increased
the
appeal
of
vertical
integration.
However,
vertical
integration
at
this
stage
of
market
development
has
not
necessarily
led
to
higher
gross
margins
and
better
financial
performance.
According
to
CGTIs
analysis,
there
appears
to
be
no
correlation
between
the
degree
of
vertical
integration
and
gross
profit
margin.
The
same
data
also
reveals
that
increased
production
capacity
and
presumed
economies
of
scale
is
no
guarantee
of
gross
margin
success.
While
many
factors
determine
a
companys
gross
margin,
including
pricing
strategy,
manufacturing
efficiencies
and
technology,
the
lack
of
clear
correlation
suggests
companies
should
consider
these
other
areas
of
potential
competitive
advantage
before
pursuing
a
vertical
integration
model.
Upstream
integration
can
help
control
costs
and
secure
supply,
but
faces
high
barriers
Upstream
integration
in
the
crystalline
silicon
value
chain
generally
refers
to
polysilicon
production.
Polysilicon,
made
from
quartz
through
a
chemical
production
process,
is
the
primary
raw
material
used
in
solar
PV
modules.
For
many
module
producers,
securing
a
high-quality,
stable
supply
of
polysilicon
remains
one
of
the
biggest
challenges.
Polysilicon
production
remains
concentrated
in
a
small
number
of
companies,
of
which
the
top
four
produce
more
than
50%
of
global
capacity.18
In
2008,
when
polysilicon
was
in
short
supply,
spot
prices
skyrocketed
to
more
than
US$
450
per
kilogram,
forcing
prices
up
across
the
value
chain
and
eating
into
downstream
profits.19
While
prices
have
fallen
dramatically
since
then
to
less
than
US$
75
per
kilogram,
companies
still
struggle
to
secure
high-quality
polysilicon
supply.
This
phenomenon
is
particularly
evident
in
China,
where
domestic
production
cannot
keep
pace
with
demand.
In
2010,
China
imported
50%
of
its
polysilicon,
and
much
of
its
domestic
supply
came
from
small,
low-quality
producers.20
Downstream
Chinese
producers
have
three
main
ways
of
procuring
polysilicon:
buying
on
the
spot
market,
signing
long-term
supply
contracts
and
producing
in-house.
Given
supply
constraints
in
China,
many
companies
have
chosen
to
develop
in-house
capacity,
including
Yingli,
LDK
and
ReneSola.
Advantages
to
this
approach
include:
Cost
reduction
potential
(since
polysilicon
makes
up
15%
of
the
total
cost
of
a
solar
module)
Higher
gross
margin
capture
(the
polysilicon
segment
of
the
value
chain
has
enjoyed
50%
gross
margins
compared
to
20-30%
for
module
producers)
Reduced
exposure
to
polysilicon
price
and
supply
fluctuations
Assured
source
of
consistent
polysilicon
for
better
product
quality
Despite
the
advantages
listed
above,
there
is
no
consensus
on
in-house
polysilicon
production
as
the
best
strategy.
The
investment
and
time
required
to
develop
in-house
supply
is
high,
and
production
18
Shah,
Abhishek,
List
of
Worlds
Top
(Solar,
Semi)
8
Polysilicon
Companies
Asia
Rising
as
Big
get
Bigger,
Green
World
Investor,
Mar.
2,
2011,
www.greenworldinvestor.com
19
Wilkinson,
Sam,
Silicon
update:
polysilicon
suppliers
call
the
shots,
IMS
Research,
Apr.
12,
2011,
www.solarnovus.com
20
Research
Report
on
China
Polysilicon
Industry,
2011-2012,
(Maryland,
US:
Market
Research,
2011)
is
only
efficient
at
a
very
large
scale.
As
Chinese
companies
like
GCL-Poly
expand
rapidly
(which
is
projected
to
be
the
largest
producer
in
the
world
in
2012),
supply
constraints
may
ease,
in
turn
making
supply-contracts
more
cost-effective
and
discouraging
the
significant
financial
investments
required
for
upstream
integration.
Downstream
integration
gives
companies
new
revenue
streams
and
access
to
new
markets
While
many
solar
companies
in
the
U.S.
and
Europe
have
long
been
active
in
project
developmentSunPower
and
Solar
World,
for
exampleChinese
solar
companies
have
focused
on
manufacturing
modules
and
other
components.
With
many
markets
across
the
world
growing
rapidly,
companies
look
to
project
development
and
operation
and
maintenance
(O&M)
services
as
promising
new
revenue
streams,
as
well
as
a
path
to
secure
demand
for
their
own
modules
in
new
markets.21
In
China,
downstream
integration
success
will
depend
on
business
models
dictated
by
the
evolution
of
market
support
policies,
and
will
largely
be
determined
by
the
role
that
large
state-owned
enterprises
(SOEs)
will
play
in
project
development
and
ownership.
Feed-in
tariffs
and
other
measures
to
stimulate
growth
have
remained
elusive,
but
Chinas
solar
market
is
set
to
grow
rapidly
in
the
coming
years
based
on
government
targets.
If
Chinas
experience
with
wind
power
is
any
indication,
concession
rounds
will
be
used
to
stimulate
growth
in
the
near-term.
The
government
will
use
these
concession
rounds
to
allow
for
controlled
development
of
the
market,
by
concurrently
providing
developers
with
practical
experience
and
allowing
the
price
of
solar
power
generation
to
drop
to
acceptable
levels
before
the
government
would
implement
broader
subsidies.
To
date,
the
small-scale
Golden
Sun
and
Solar
Roofs
subsidy
programs,
in
addition
to
two
concession
rounds
(where
developers
bid
for
individual
projects)
for
utility-scale
projects,
have
resulted
in
860
MW
of
solar
power
capacity.22
Solar
PV
producers,
which
are
mostly
private
companies,
will
have
to
compete
or
cooperate
with
Chinas
powerful
SOEs
for
project
development
and
operation
rights.
Some
examples
of
downstream
activity
by
module
producers
exist,
such
as
Suntechs
10
MW
project
in
Tibet
and
China
Sunergys
7
MW
building-integrated
PV
roof
in
Nanjing,
but
the
largest
projects,
thus
far,
have
been
developed
by
SOEs
who
have
won
all
of
the
major
projects
in
the
first
two
concession
rounds.
23
While
these
concession
rounds
are
not
expected
to
result
in
high
profits
for
participating
companies,
early
participation
in
these
concession
rounds
may
help
companies
continue
scaling
production
and
secure
a
piece
of
what
may
be
a
RMB
125
billion
solar
pie
by
2020.24
21
This
opportunity
assessment
focused
on
downstream
opportunities
in
China
and
the
U.S.,
but
similar
opportunities
exist
elsewhere
in
the
world.
22
CGTI
analysis
23
National
Energy
Administration,
,
[Result
of
the
second
concession
round],
(accessed
on
May
10,
2011)
24
CGTI
analysis
10
The
U.S.
installation
market
also
looks
particularly
promising
as
it
shifts
to
more
utility-scale
projects.25
Up
to
3
GW
of
new
capacity
may
be
installed
in
2011
in
solar-friendly
states,
with
tax
incentives
and
government
loan
guarantees
piquing
the
interest
of
developers
worldwide.
This
is
the
case
in
California,
where
the
states
Solar
Initiative
will
subsidize
3
GW
of
rooftop
installations
before
2016.26
Chinese
producers
have
already
established
strong
distribution
channels
into
the
U.S.
and
supply
roughly
40%
of
all
modules
to
the
California
program.27
Chinese
companies
will
continue
to
supply
modules
to
the
U.S.
in
the
years
to
come,
but
expanding
into
the
solar
project
development
segment
will
be
complex.
Because
the
U.S.
lacks
coordinated
federal
government
support
for
solar
power
the
current
30%
investment
tax
credit
grant
may
expire
at
the
end
of
2012
state-based
initiatives
have
been
embraced
by
the
industry.
Yet,
navigating
state-based
initiatives
can
be
a
daunting
task,
particularly
for
Chinese
companies
accustomed
to
a
more
centralized
approach.
Incentives
favoring
U.S.
producers,
as
well
as
increasing
overseas
shipping
costs
(shipping
from
China
adds
an
estimated
2.5%
to
the
cost
of
each
module28),
will
put
increasing
pressure
on
producers
to
consider
local
manufacturing
when
entering
the
U.S.
market.
Even
though
manufacturing
costs
are
higher
in
the
U.S.,
some
companies
have
chosen
this
approach.
Suntech,
for
example,
has
set
up
a
factory
in
Phoenix,
Arizona,
with
30
MW
of
capacity,
while
other
companies
are
taking
exploratory
steps
and
establishing
representative
U.S.
offices. 29
Few
examples
of
Chinese-led
projects
exist,
but
this
may
change
as
Chinese
companies
gain
more
experience,
and
their
ability
to
offer
project
financing
through
support
from
the
China
Development
Bank
or
China
Ex-Im
may
give
them
a
competitive
advantage.
Industry
Consolidation
Hundreds
of
Chinese
companies
occupy
the
module
segment,
but
only
a
few
produce
at
large-scale
Thanks
to
local
government
support
for
the
solar
industry,
hundreds
of
Chinese
companies
have
entered
the
market
and
several
production
clusters
have
emerged
in
Baoding
and
Changzhou.
Most
of
these
companies
are
in
the
module
manufacturing
segment,
due
to
the
relative
ease
of
market
entry
compared
to
the
more
capital-
or
technology-intensive
polysilicon
and
solar
cell
segments
of
the
value
chain.
Turn-key
manufacturing
lines
can
be
purchased,
installed
and
rapidly
put
into
production
and,
as
25
11
a
result,
there
are
over
600
module
producers
in
China
compared
to
167
cell
companies
and
fewer
than
50
polysilicon
producers.30
While
hundreds
of
module
companies
exist
in
China
today,
most
production
is
concentrated
in
the
factories
of
only
a
few
top-tier
producers.
The
top
five
module
companies
in
China
account
for
over
60%
of
production
capacity.31
These
large
companies,
like
Suntech
and
Trina
Solar,
differentiate
themselves
by
having
over
1
GW
of
production
capacity,
sourcing
select
materials
from
foreign
suppliers,
using
advanced
manufacturing
equipment,
and
focusing
resources
on
marketing
and
branding. 32
Some
companies
are
even
beginning
to
develop
their
own
manufacturing
equipment,
one
of
the
last
areas
of
the
solar
value
chain
still
dominated
by
foreign
companies.33
The
pace
of
M&A
in
China
will
depend
on
local
incentives,
but
global
consolidation
will
accelerate
While
Chinas
market
appears
ready
for
consolidation,
few
mergers
and
acquisitions
(M&As)
have
taken
place
to
date.
The
pace
of
consolidation
and
M&As
in
the
Chinese
domestic
market
will
be
influenced
in
part
by
the
amount
of
financial
support
from
local
governments
for
local
industry.
Provincial
and
local
governments
have
offered
low-interest
loans,
land
at
reduced
cost
and
capital
subsidies,
often
regardless
of
profitability.
The
lack
of
Chinese
M&A
activity
to
date
may
also
stem
from
difficulties
related
to
integrating
new
companies
with
incompatible
production
equipment
or
30
CGTI
analysis
Ibid.
32
CGTI
interviews
33
Ibid.
31
12
management
structures
and,
in
many
cases,
expanding
internal
capacity
is
seen
as
simpler
than
acquiring
it
from
other
companies.
In
the
past
year,
rapid
growth
in
Chinese
production
capacity,
global
pricing
pressure
and
a
series
of
high-level
international
downstream
deals
suggest
that
global
solar
industry
consolidation
may
be
close
at
hand:
MEMC
acquired
developer
SunEdison,
First
Solar
acquired
developer
NextLight
Renewable
Power,
and
the
petrochemical
company
Total
acquired
a
controlling
interest
in
the
manufacturer
SunPower.34
In
March
2010,
China
Sunergy
acquired
CEEG
Solar
Science
&
Technology
and
CEEG
New
Energy
Co.
for
US$
47
million,
adding
220
MW
of
new
module
capacity.
The
acquisition
represented
a
downstream
move
for
China
Sunergy,
which
subsequently
gained
distribution
networks
in
the
U.S.,
Europe
and
Southeast
Asia.35
Also,
in
2010,
LDK
Solar
invested
US$
21.5
million
in
Best
Solars
600
MW
module
manufacturing
plant.
(LDK
Solar
formerly
supplied
solar
cells
to
Best
Solars
module
facility.)
Interestingly,
Best
Solar
will
continue
to
produce
thin
film
modules
and
remain
a
downstream
competitor
to
LDK
Solar.36
34
Ausick,
Paul,
The
Solar
Consolidation
Phase
May
Just
Be
Starting,
24/7
Wall
St.,
Jul.
1,
2011,
www.247wallst.com
35
China
Sunergy,
China
Sunergy
announces
acquisition
of
two
solar
module
manufacturers,
Mar.
15,
2010,
http://zd.qiye8.com
36
PRNewswire,
LDK
Solar
acquires
Best
Solars
crystalline
module
manufacturing
plant,
www.prnewswire.com,
(accessed
on
May
1,
2011)
13
Solar
PV
Producers
should
identify
the
most
effective
cost-reduction
strategies
to
retain
margins,
and
analyze
potential
benefits
of
polysilicon
production
and
developing
in-house
manufacturing
equipment.
In
Chinas
downstream
market,
close
partnerships
with
SOEs
will
result
in
access
to
concession-round
projects,
and
localization
or
acquisitions
in
markets
like
the
U.S.
will
help
producers
overcome
local
content
requirements.
Materials
and
Components
Suppliers
should
anticipate
the
continued
vertical
integration
of
their
customers
and
assess
the
impact
of
industry
consolidation
on
their
current
and
future
customer-base.
Solar
PV
Developers
and
Project
Owners
should
plan
for
continued
declines
in
solar
PV
ASPs
while
understanding
the
potential
for
solar
PV
producers
to
move
downstream
and
become
competitors.
Financial
Service
Firms
should
prepare
for
simultaneous
consolidation
in
solar
PV
industry
and
continued
production
capacity
expansions.
They
should
also
facilitate
M&A
between
industry
players
across
the
supply
chain,
both
domestically
and
cross-border.
Regulators,
particularly
in
China,
should
set
strong
policy
targets
with
clear
implementation
roadmaps
to
provide
more
certainty
to
producers
and
bring
greater
stability
to
the
industry
which
will
benefit
all
stakeholders.
Regulators
should
also
strengthen
quality
standards
and
certification
programs
to
prevent
reckless
development
and
poor
grid
integration.
All
producers,
including
material
and
component
suppliers,
must
watch
for
pending
Chinese
domestic
policy
incentives
and
expansion
of
production
capacity
in
China
to
understand
the
impact
on
global
supply/demand
balances
and
the
pace
of
industry
consolidation.
With
continued
reduction
in
solar
PV
pricing,
new
installation
markets
independent
of
subsidies
will
potentially
emerge
yielding
new
investment
opportunities.
14
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Acknowledgements
Hundreds
of
individuals
provide
input
into
the
work
of
CGTI
and
the
content
of
this
White
Paper,
including
leaders
of
major
Chinese
enterprises,
foreign
companies,
entrepreneurs,
investors,
government,
NGOs
and
policy
advisors.
CGTI
Partners
and
Advisors
that
support
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Renewable
Energy
Sector
are
presented
on
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front
cover
of
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White
Paper.
CGTI
wishes
to
acknowledge
several
organizations
for
their
support
of
this
White
Paper,
including
Bayer,
BP,
Dow
Corning,
DuPont,
Hanwha
SolarOne,
J
Capital
Research,
Suntech,
Talesun,
Trina
Solar
and
Tsing
Capital.
CGTI
Senior
Research
Analysts
Claire
Nelson,
Olivier
Pincon
and
Jackie
Wang
led
the
writing
of
this
White
Paper
based
on
an
Opportunity
Assessment,
under
the
direction
of
Manager
Anders
Hove
and
Managing
Director
Alan
Beebe.
Cina
Loarie
provided
copyediting
support
and
managed
publication
of
the
White
Paper.
CGTI
Partner
Relations
team
members
Mark
Wehling
and
Chitra
Hepburn
supported
the
Opportunity
Assessment,
under
the
direction
of
Managing
Director
Ellen
Carberry.
15