Probability

This one is for the gamblers, the card players, and the survivalists.
Well be dealing with discrete probability in some basic situations.
Before we get started, lets first define probability; mathematically,
first
Lets say you are flipping a coin. There are 2 possible outcomes of this
you get a heads or you get a tails. The set of these possible
outcomes is called as the Sample Space.
In the even of tossing a coin, the Sample Space = S = {H, T}
H and T are the 2 Events representing the event of occurrence of a
head and tail, respectively.
Probability of an event E is defined as P(E) = (Number of outcomes to
get E)/(Total number of outcomes)
Here, total number of outcomes = 2,
The number of events of getting a heads = 1
The number of events of getting a tails = 1
P(H) = probability of getting a Heads =
P(T) = probability of getting a Tails =
Also, you would observe that the sum of individual probabilities for all
the possible events = 1
In this case P(H) + P(T) = + = 1
A probability of 1 indicates a 100% certainty that the event would
happen.
We can also infer from this that Probability of an event CANNOT BE
>1
Also, probability of an even CANNOT be NEGATIVE. The least value of
probability of an event can be 0.
One thing more wed like to highlight here is that
P(Event occurring) + P(Event NOT occurring) = 1
This makes a lot of sense as it is 100% certain that the event would
happen OR it would not happen, there is no other possibility.

Lets discuss a few more standard events

Deck of cards:
A deck of playing cards has 52 cards in it. Out of these 52 cards, 26 are
Red and 26 are Black. The deck is divided into 4 suits each having 13
cards. Clubs and Spades are the black suites, and the Diamonds and
Hearts are the red suites.
Every suite has cards numbered from 1 to 10, with the number 1 card
also known as the Ace card. Jack (or J) is for number 11, Queen (or Q)
is for number 12, and King (or K) is for number 13. Collectively, the
jack, the queen, and the king, are called the Face Cards.
With this background information at hand, lets start calculating a few
probabilities involved while dealing cards. While picking one cards out
of a deck of cards there are 52 different possibilities.
P(Getting a Red Card) = Probability of getting a red colored card =
(Number of ways to get a red card)/Total number of ways
Now, there are a total of 26 red cards.
P(Getting a Red Card) = 26/52 =
Similarly, P(Getting a Black Card) = 26/52 =
P(Getting a queen) = 4/52 = 1/13
P(Getting a Red King) = 2/52 = 1/26
{This is because there are only 2 red kings in a deck of cards}
P(NOT getting a Face card) = 1 P(Getting a Face Card)
= 1 ( 12/52 ) {There are a total of 12 face
cards, 3 in
each suite}
= 40/52 = 10/13
Rolling a dice:
Well be dealing with a 6-faced dice with numbers 1 to 6 printed on its
faces. This is the dice we use for playing monopoly, snakes and
ladders, and a whole bunch of other board games.
Well first deal with the case of rolling 1 dice.
There are a total of 6 possible outcomes = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

P(Getting a 3) = 1/6
P(Getting an even number) = 3/6 =
P(Getting a prime number) = 3/6 =
number}

{Remember 1 is NOT a prime

Now, lets get to the slightly trickier case of rolling 2 dices.

When we roll 2 dices together (like in Monopoly) there are 36 possible
outcomes. These are Sample Space (S) = { (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) }
So the total number of possible outcomes here is 36. Please take care
that (1,3) and (3,1) are different elements. Lets check individual
probabilities
P(Getting two 6s) = 1/36 {there is only 1 event in the sample space
where both the numbers are 6s}
P(Getting the same number on both faces) = 6/36 = 1/6
P(Sum of numbers on faces is 4)
The sum of numbers on faces can be 4 in the following possibilities
(1,3) (2,2) (3,1)
So a total of 3 possibilities.
Therefore, P(Sum of numbers on faces is 4) = 3/36 = 1/12
AND, OR in probability:
Lets say there are 2 events A and B, with respective probabilities of
occurrences as P(A) and P(B), respectively.
P(A and B) is the common part of their respective probabilities.
P (A and B) is also written as P (A n B)
The Venn Diagram for (A n B) looks like this..

The overlapping region, highlighted in yellow, is the common part

between A and B. It is here that BOTH A and B occur together. The
region in yellow is A AND B or AnB.
For eg: Consider the event of drawing out 1 card from a deck. Let, A be
the event that you draw an even number, and B be the event you draw
a Face card.
Clearly, P(A) = 24/52 = 6/13 {There are 24 even numbers in the deck,
with 6 in each suite 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and Q}
And P(B) = 12/52 = 3/13 {There are 3 face cards in each suite, with 12
total in the deck}
Now, P(A and B) would be the case when you have BOTH a face card
and an even number card. Whatll be the common part between these
2 then?
Yes, the card would be Q.
So, P(A and B) is essentially the probability of getting a Q.
P(A and B) = 4/52 = 1/13
P(A OR B), however, has a totally different definition. It means that
either the Event A occurs, or the Event B occurs or both the events
occur together. If we use Venn Diagram, the event (A or B) can be
represented like this

P (A or B) is the sum of all regions 1, 2 and 3, and is highlighted in

yellow in the above figure. P (A or B) is also written as P (A U B)
P (A or B) = P (A U B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A n B)
This is a crucial formula to find the probability of 2 events.
Lets extend that card shuffle example here. So, event A was getting
an even number and event B was getting a Queen.
P (A U B) = probability of getting an even number or a queen or both.
Using the formula above,
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A n B)
= 6/13 + 3/13 1/13 = 8/13
Independent and Mutually exclusive Events:
Mutually exclusive events are those events that cannot occur at the
same time.
Mathematically, 2 events are mutually exclusive if they have no
common, overlapping area, i.e. 2 events A and B are mutually
exclusive if P(A n B) = 0
The Venn Diagram for mutually exclusive events would look like this..

A and B are mutually exclusive events

overlapping/common region and A n B = 0

as

they

have

no

For mutually exclusive events, P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

2 events are called independent if the outcome of one event does NOT
affect the outcome of the other. For instance, if you are tossing 2 coins
one after the other, then these are independent events. Thats because
the fact that you get a heads or a tails on the first toss, does not
impact the outcome of the 2nd coin toss.
For independent events, P(A n B) = P(A) x P(B)
Lets do a combined example. Let, there be 3 events A, B and C with
P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4 and P(C) = 0.8.
Also, A and B are mutually exclusive events, and B and C are
independent events.
Now, P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.3 + 0.4 = 0.7 {mutually exclusive
events}
And, P(B n C) = P(B) x P(C) = 0.4 x 0.8 = 0.32 {independent events}
Therefore, P(B U C) = P(B) + P(C) P(B n C) {The general formula for
probability additions}
P(B U C) = P(B or C) = 0.4 + 0.7 (0.32)
= 1.1 0.32 = 0.78
Also, notice, that P(A) + P(C) > 1
What does that tell you?

That tells us that P(A) + P(C) P(A U C), because P(A U C) cannot be >
1 {Because probability of ANY event CANNOT be > 1}
So, that means P(A U C) = P(A) + P(C) SOMETHING
But, P(AUC) = P(A) + P(C) P(A n B)
Compare the above 2 lines and youll realize that P(AnB) has some
value and it is NOT equal to 0.
If P(AnB) 0, then that means A and C are NOT Mutually Exclusive
Events.
This kind of thought process can come in really handy to solve some
tough DS questions from this topic.
{Note for Henry Please make sure you repeat the calculations above
at least twice and very slowly. Students often find it difficult to grasp
this at the first attempt. So youll have to break it down and do it
slowly, step-by-step.}
Lets discuss something now thats a mix of counting techniques we
discussed in the previous chapter and of a concept that is frequently
tested in GMAT.
Drawing out balls from a bag:
Lets discuss a familiar case from counting first.. 4 slots, 10 digits, the
first place can be filled with a 0, but no repetition of digits is allowed.
How many ways to do this?
________
Slot 1

Slot 2

_________
_________
__________
Slot 3
Slot 4

Now, Slot 1 can be filled in 10 ways.

Since, the digits cannot be repeated, thatll leave us with 9 digits that
we can fill in Slot 2. So, Slot 2 can be filled in 9 ways.
Similarly, Slot 3 can be allocated in 8 ways, and Slot 4 in 7 ways.
The final outcome would be = 10 x 9 x 8 x 7
This is one of the most common ways to calculate number of ways and
indeed the probability of events.

Lets apply this to drawing balls out of a bag case.

Assume theres a big bag that has 7 balls in it 3 green, 2 red and 2
yellow.
Lets say you put in your hand and draw out a ball. Whats the
probability of getting a green ball?
Lets see. Total number of outcomes = 7
The number of ways to get a green ball = 3 {as there are 3 green balls
in the bag}
So, P(Green Ball) = 3/7
Similarly, P(Red Ball) = 2/7
And, P(Yellow Ball) = 2/7
Now, what if after drawing out a green ball, you put your hand in the
bag again and draw out another ball. Whats the probability of getting
a green ball now?
Lets see. Now the total number of balls in the bag = 6 {as youve
already taken out 1}
Number of green balls left = 2
Number of yellow balls left = 2
Number of red balls left = 2
P(Green Ball, after withdrawing a green ball) = 2/6
Now, what if you repeat the process for a 3 rd time. Whats the
probability of getting a yellow ball now?
Total number of balls left = 5
Number of green balls left = 1
Number of yellow balls left = 2
Number of red balls left = 2
P(Yellow Ball, after taking out 2 Green balls) = 1/5
This is a very standard question in the GMAT test.
There is one more variation available for this concept. In the above
case we were just withdrawing balls and not replacing them or putting
them back in the bag after withdrawal.

Again.. a bag with 7 balls 3 green, 2 yellow and 2 red.

You withdraw a ball and then put it back again. What is the probability
that you draw the 1st red ball on the 2nd try?
Since, we are withdrawing and putting the ball back in the bag again, it
should be clear that the total number of balls in the bag would remain
the same (unlike the previous time).
Now, the question asks you whats the probability that you get the
FIRST red ball on the SECOND TRY.
Now, in simple words what that means is that in the first attempt you
dont get a red ball AND in the second attempt you get a red ball.
So, what we are looking for is = P(NOT Red) AND P(R)
1st try: P (NOT Red) = P(Y or G) = P(Y) + P(G) {Because Y and G are
mutually exclusive events. If you draw a yellow ball you dont get a
green ball, and vice versa}
= 2/7 + 3/7 = 5/6
Alternatively, we couldve written P(NOT Red) = 1 P(Red) = 1 2/7 =
5/7
Either way well get the same answer.
2nd try: P(Red) = 2/7 {You have replaced the ball back so the
constituents stay the same}
Also, the answer = P(NOT Red) AND P(Red) = P(NOT Red) x P(Red)
Thats because P(NOT Red) and P(Red) are independent events. The 1 st
draw has no impact on the outcome of the 2 nd draw because we are
replacing the ball back.
So, the answer = 5/6 x 2/7 = 10/42 = 5/21
Conditional Probability:
We wont use any formulas to tackle this one but rely on basic logic
and break down the situation accordingly.
Lets say a bag has 7 balls 2 of which are black and 5 are white. You
pick 2 balls from the bag one after the other (so no scope of

replacement). What is the probability that both the balls are of

different color?
Now, this one is slightly tricky. Lets see what are the ways in which
you could end up with 2 different colored balls.
It could be either WB or BW, i.e. either you pick a white first and then
black, or you pick a black ball first and then the white ball.
So, there are 2 possible cases. This is the case of conditional
probability because the outcome of the first draw would affect the
probability of the 2nd draw.
Mind you the 2 cases WB or BW are joined by the word OR. That
means the individual probabilities of these 2 cases would get added.
Remember, OR = Add, AND = Multiply
Case 1: WB i.e. White THEN Black
So, P(WB) = P(Draw white first and Black second)
P(White first) = 5/7
P(Black second) = 2/6 {as now youd be left with 6 balls of which 2 are
black}
So, P(WB) = 5/7 x 2/6 = 10/42
Case 2: BW i.e. Black THEN White
So, P(BW) = 2/7 x 5/6 = 10/42
So, P(WB or BW) = P(WB) + P(BW) = 10/42 + 10/42 = 20/42 = 10/21
Remember to break the case down whenever you are stuck in a
complicated problem and work your way by adding individually
probabilities.