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E.
INTRODUCTION
588
589
590
Hawley identified three important tem- lated social roles and rclationships to the
poral components of community struc- occurrence or absence of illegal acts.
ture: (1) rhythm, the regular periodicity
The conjunction of these minimal elewith which events occur, as with the ments can be used to assess how social
rhythm of travel activity; (2) tempo, the structure may affect the tempo of each
number of events per unit of time, such as type of violation. That is, the probability
the number of criminal violations per day th:rt a violation will occur at any specific
on a given street; and (3) timing, the coor- time and place might be taken as a funcdination among different activities which tion of the convergence of likely offenders
are more or less interdependent, such as and suitable targets in: the absence of
the coordination of an offender's rhythms capable guardians. Through consideration
with those of a victim (Hawley, 1950:289; of how trends and fluctuations in social
the examples are ours). These compo- conditions affect the frequency of this
nents of temporal organization, often ne- convergence of criminogenic circumglected in criminological research, prove stances, an explanation oftemporal trends
useful in analyzing how illegal tasks are in crime rates can be constructed.
performed-a utility which becomes more
apparent after noting the spatio--temporal
The Ecological Nature of Illegal Acts
requirements of illegal activities.
This ecological analysis of directThe Minimal Elements of Direct-Contact
contact predatory violations is intended to
Predatory Violations
be more than metaphorical. In the context
of such violations, people, gaining and losAs we previously stated, despite their
ing sustenance, struggle among themgreat diversity, direct-contact predatory
selves for property, safety, territorial
violations share sorne important require- hegemony, sexual outlet, physical conments which facilitate analysis of their
trol, and sometimes for survival itself. The
structure. Each successfully completed
interdependence between offenders and
violation minimally requires an offender
victims can be viewed as a predatory relawith both criminal inclinations and the tionship between functionally dissimilar
ability to carry out those inclinations, a
individuals or groups. Since predatory
person or object providing a suitable violations fail to yield any net gain in
target for the offender, and absence of
sustenance for the larger community, they
guardians capable of preventing violacan only be sustained by feeding upon
tions. We emphasize that the lack of any
other activities. As offenders cooperate to
one of these elements normally is suffiincrease their efficiency at predatory viocient to prevent such violations from
lations and as potential victims organize
occurring. 2 Though guardianship is imtheir resistance to these violations, both
plicit in everyday life, it usually is marked
groups apply the symbiotic principie to
by the absence of violations; hence it is
improve their sustenance position. On the
easy to overlook. While police action 'is
other hand, potential victims of predatory
analyzed widely, guardianship by ordicrime may take evasive actions which ennary citizens of one another and of propcourage offenders to pursue targets other
erty as they go about routine activities
than their own. Since illegal activities
may be one of the most neglected elemust feed upon other activities, the spatial
ments in sociological research on crime,
and temporal structure of routine legal acespecially since it links seemingly unretivities should play an important role in
determining
the location, type and quan2 The analytical distinction between target and
tity of illegal acts occurring in a given
guardian is not important in those cases where a
community or society. Moreover, one can
personal target engages in self-protection from
direct-contact predatory violations. We Jeave open
analyze how the structure of community
for the present the question of whether a guardian is
organization as well as the leve) of
effective or ineffective in all situations. We also
technology in a society provide the cirallow that various guardians may primarily supervise
cumstances
under which crime can thrive.
offenders, targets or both. These are questions for
Por example, technology and organization
future examination.
591
592
tion, many studies report that architectural and environmental design as well as
community crime programs serve to decrease target suitability and increase
capable guardianship (see, for example,
Newman, 1973; Jeffery, 1971; Washnis,
1976), while many biographical or autobiographical descriptions of illegal activities note that lawbreakers take into account the nature of property and/or the
structure of human activities as they go
about their illegal work (see, e.g.,
Chambliss, 1972; Klockars, 1974; Sutherland, 1937; Letkemann, 1973; Jackson,
1969; Martin, 1952; Maurer, 1964; Carneron, 1964; Williamson, 1968).
Evidence that the spatio-temporal organization of society affects patterns of
crime can be found in severa! sources.
Strong variations in specific predatory
crime rates from hour to hour, day today,
and month to month are reported often
(e.g., Wolfgang, 1958; Amir, 1971; Reppetto, 1974; Scarr, 1972; FBI, 1975;
1976), and these variations appear to correspond to the various tempos of the related legitimate activities upon which they
feed. Also at a microsociological level,
Short and Strodtbeck (1965: chaps. 5 and
11) describe opportunities for violent confrontations of gang boys and other community residents which arise in the context of community leisure patterns, such
as "quarter parties" in black communities, and the importance, in the calculus of decision making employed by
participants in such episodes, of low
probabilities of legal intervention. In addition, a wealth of empirical evidence indicates strong spatial variations over community areas in crime and delinquency
rates 3 (for an excellent discussion and re3 One such ecological study by Sarah Boggs ( 1965)
presents sorne similar ideas in distinguishingfami/iarity of offenders with their targets and profitability
of targets as two elements of crime occurrence.
Boggs"s work stands apart from much research on
the ecology of crime in its consideration of crime
occurrence rates separately from offender rates. The
former consist of the number of offenses committed
in a given area per number of suitable targets within
that area (as estimated by various indicators). The
latter considers the residence of offenders in computing the number of offenders per unit of population.
Boggs examines the correlations between crime
occurrence rates and offender rates for severa] of-
593
594
= [(R+W) +(A
365)] lQ9,
595
Table l. Incident-Specific Risk Rates for Rape, Robbery, Assault and Personal Larceny with Contact,
United States, 1974
A.*
PLACE OF
RESIDEN CE
In or near borne
Elsewhere
*
B.
(Lone Offender)
VICTIMOFFENDER
Relative
RELA TIONSHIP Well Known
Casual Acquaintance
Don't Know/Sight Only
(Multiple Offender)
Any known
All strangers
C.*
NUMBER
OF
VICTIMS
D.**
LOCATION ANO
RELATIONSHIP
(so le
offender
only)
one
Two
Three
Four Plus
Home, Stranger
Home, Nonstranger
Street, Stranger
Street, Nonstranger
Elsewhere, Stranger
Elsewhere, Nonstranger
Personal
Larceny
Assault with Contact Total
Rape
Robbery
63
119
129
584
572
1,897
75
1,010
839
3,610
7
23
11
106
13
30
26
227
158
333
308
888
5
30
25
616
183
416
370
1,837
68
349
252
530
43
366
373
1,270
179
3
o
o
647
47
13
6
2,116
257
53
43
1,062
19
3
1
4,004
326
09
50
61
45
1,370
179
129
47
147
74
7,743
735
513
155
345
620
15,684
5,777
1,934
1,544
103
22
7,802
496
2,455
99
654
761
32,460
7,167
4,988
1,874
10***
25***
* Calculated from Handelang et al., 1977: Tables 3.16, 3.18, 3.27, 3.28. Rates are per 100,000 persons
ages 12 and over.
** See fn. 6 for source. Rates are per billion person-hours in stated locations.
*** Based on white data only due to lack of suitable sample size for nonwhites as victims of rape with
multiple offenders.
rates (witb contact) are 350 times bigber at to disaggregate all major components of
tbe bands of strangers in streets tban at target suitability (i.e., value, visibility, actbe bands of nonstrangers at borne. Sepa- . cessibility and inertia), togetber tbey
rate computations from 1973 victimization imply tbat expensive and movable duradata (USDJ, 1976: Table 48) indica te tbat bles, sucb as vebicles and electronic
tbere were two motor vebicle tbefts per appliances, bave tbe bigbest risk of illegal
million vebicle-bours parked at or near removal.
As a specific case in point, we comborne, 55 per million vebicle-bours in
streets, parks, playgrounds, scbool pared tbe 1975 composition of stolen
grounds or parking lots, and 12 per million property reported in tbe U niform Crime
vebicle-bours elsewbere. Wbile tbe direc- Report (FBI, 1976: Tables 26-7) witb nation of tbese relationsbips is not surpris- tional data on personal consumer expendiing, tbeir magnitudes sbould be noted. lt tures for goods (CEA, 1976: Tables 13-16)
appears tbat risk of criminal victimization and to appliance industry estimates of tbe
vares dramatically among tbe circum- value of sbipments tbe same year (Merstances and locations in wbicb people chandising Week, 1976). We calculated
tbat $26.44 in motor vebicles and parts
place tbemselves and tbeir property.
were stolen for eacb $ 100 of tbese goods
consumed in 1975, wbile $6.82 wortb of
Target Suitability
electronic appliances were stolen per $100
Anotber assumption of tbe routine ac- consumed. Tbougb tbese estimates are
tivity approacb is tbat target suitability in- subject to error in citizen and police estifluences tbe occurrence of direct~contact mation, wbat is important bere is tbeir size
predatory violations. Tbougb we lack data relative to otber rates. For example, only
596
8jt worth of nondurables and 12~t worth predatory criminal victimization. We also
of furniture and nonelectronic household expect that adolescents and young adults
durable_s were stolen per $100 of each who are perhaps more likely to engage in
category consumed, the motor vehicle peer group activities rather than family
risk being, respectively, 330 and 220 times activities will have higher rates of criminal
as great. Though we lack data on the victimization. Finally: married persons
"stocks" of goods subject to risk, these should have lower rates than others. Ta"flow" data clearly support our assump- bles 2 and 3 largely confirm these expectation that vehicles and electronic tions (with the exception of personal larappliances are greatly overrepresented in ceny with contact). Examining these tathefts.
bles, we note that victimization rates apThe 1976 Buying Guide issue of Con- pear to be related inversely to age and are
sumer Reports (1975) indicates why elec- lower for persons in "less active" statuses
tronic appliances are an excellent retail (e.g., keeping house, unable to work, revalue for a thief. For example, a tired) and persons in intact marriages. A
Panasonic car tape player is worth $30 per notable exception is indicated in Table 2,
lb., anda Phillips phonograph cartridge is where persons unable to work appear
valued at over $5,000 per lb., while large more likely to be victimized by rape, robappliances such as refrigerators and wash- bery and personal larceny with contact
ing machines are only worth $1 to $3 per than are other "inactive persons." Unlb. Not surprisingly, burglary data for the employed persons also have unusually
District of Columbia in 1969 (Scarr, 1972: high rates of victimization. However,
Table 9) indicate that borne entertainment these rates are consistent with the routine
items alone constituted nearly four times activity approach offered here: the high
as many stolen items as clothing, food, rates of victimization suffered by the undrugs, liquor, and tobacco combined and employed may reflect their residential
nearly eight times as many stolen items as proximity to high concentrations of potenoffice supplies and equipment. In addi- tial offenders as well as their age and ration, 69% of national thefts classified in cial composition, while handicapped per1975 (FBI, 1976: Tables 1, 26) involve sons have high risk of personal victimizaautomobiles, their parts or accessories, tion because they are less able to resist
and thefts from automobiles or thefts of motivated offenders. Nonetheless, perbicycles. Yet radio and television sets plus sons who keep house have noticeably
electronic components and accessories to- lower rates of victimization than those
taled only 0.1<m of the total truckload who are employed, unemployed, in school
tonnage terminated in 1973 by intercity or in the armed forces.
As Table 3 indicates, burglary and robmotor carriers, while passenger cars,
motor vehicle parts and accessories, bery victimization rates are about twice as
motorcycles, bicycles, and their parts, to- high for persons living in single-adult
taled only 5. 5% of the 41 O million households as for other persons in each
truckload tons terminated (ICC, 1974). age group examined. Other victimization
Clearly, portable and movable durables data (USDJ, 1976: Table 21) indicate that,
are reported stolen in great disproprotion while household victimization rates tend
to their share of the value and weight of to vary directly with household size,
goods circulating in the United States.
larger households have lower rates per
person. Por example, the total household
victimization rates (including burglary,
Family Activities and Crime Rates
household larceny, and motor ve hiele
One would expect that persons living in theft) per 1,000 households were 168 for
single-adult households and those em- single-person households and 326 for
ployed outside the borne are less obligated households containing six or more perto confine their time to family activities sons. Hence, six people distributed over
within households. From a routine ac- six single-person households experience
tivity perspective, these persons and their an average of 1,008 household victimizahouseholds should have higher rates of tions, more than three times as many as
597
Table 2. Selected Status-Specific Personal Victimization Rates for the United States (per 100,000 Persons in
Each Category)
Variables
and
Sources
Victim
Category
Rape
A. AGE
12-15
(Source:
16-19
Hindelang, et al., 1977: 20-24
Table 310, 1974
25-34
rates
35-49
50-64
65+
147
248
209
135
21
33
20
(MaJe 16+)
B. MAJOR
ACTIVITY OF
Armed Forces
Employed
VICTIM
(Source:
Unemployed
Hindelang, et al., 1977: Keep house
Table 313, 1974
In school
rates)
u nable to work
Retired
(Female 16+
Keep house
Employed
Unemployed
In School
Unable to work
Re ti red
C. MARITAL STATUS
(Source:USDJ:
1977, Table 5,
1973 rates)
Robbery
(MaJe 12+)
Never Married
Married
Separated/Divorced
Widowed
(Female 12+)
Never Married
Married
Separated/Divorced
Widowed
360
70
540
Personal
Larceny
without
Contact
1,267
1,127
1,072
703
547
411
388
3,848
5,411
4,829
3,023
1,515
731
492
311
370
337
263
256
347
344
16,355
15,606
14,295
10,354
7,667
4,588
1,845
1,388
807
2,179
1,362
1,520
578
4,153
3,285
7,984
2,475
5,984
2,556
662
118
252
594
463
493
623
205
16,274
10,318
15,905
3,998
17,133
3,648
2,080
271
529
772
430
842
172
978
1,576
5,065
2,035
741
438
285
355
461
298
326
831
4,433
9,419
12,338
12,810
1,003
1,571
1,800
550
2,270
1,150
5,870
2,170
5,640
1,500
450
170
1,040
16,450
7,660
12,960
4,120
580
270
1,090
450
2,560
910
4,560
590
400
220
640
480
12,880
6,570
9,130
2,460
116
156
798
417
287
120
Assault
Personal
Larceny
with
Contact
Line indicates too few offenses for accurate estimates of rate. However, rates in these cells are usually
small.
One
Two or More
Ratio
18-35
36-55
56 and over
0.200 (140)
0.161 (112)
0.107 (262)
0.095 (985)
0.079 (826)
0.061 (640)
2.11
2.04
1.76
All Ages
0.144
(514)
0.081 (2451)
1.78
598
Time of day
8:00- 8:59a.m.
9:00- 9:59a.m.
10:00-10:59 a.m.
11 :00-11:59 a.m.
12:00-12:59 p.m.
1:00- 1:59 p.m.
2:00- 2:59 p.m.
3:00- 3:59p.m.
4:00- 4:59 p.m.
5:00- 5:59p.m.
6:00- 6:59 p.m.
7:00- 7:50p.m.
8:00- 8:59 p.m.
November, 1971
1960 Current Pop. Percent
Change
Census
Survey
29%
29
31
32
32
31
33
30
28
22
22
20
24
43
44
42
41
41
43
43
33
30
26
25
29
22
+48.9%
+58
+36
+28
+28
+39
+30
+10
+ 7
+18
+14
+45
- 8
599
600
1960
52.6
8.0
39.4
1965
57.0
10.1
32.9
1970
59.8
13.1
27.1
1%5
24.5
25.2
50.2
1970
31.7
25.8
42.5
1975
33.2
30.5
36.3
Totals
C. LARCENIES
Shoplifting
Other
Totals
D. MURDERS
Relative Killings
Romance, Argumentsh
Felon Typesc
Totals
1963
31.0
51.0
17 .o
1%5
31.0
48.0
21.0
1970
23.3
47.9
28.8
1975
22.4
45.2
32.4
601
602
Table 6. Regression Equations for First Differences in Five,Index Crime Rates and Sensitivity Analyses, the United States, 1947-1974
(1) Nonnegligent
(2) Forcible
Rape
Homicide
Constant
t ratio
Proportion 15-24 (t)
Standardized
Unstandardized
t ratio
Household Activity Ratio (t)
Standardized
U nstandardized
t ratio
Multiple R2 Adjusted
Degrees of Freedom
Durbin-Watson Value
1% test
5% test
-2.3632
.3502
-4.8591
5.3679
.1667
3.2190
1.0695
.7162
4.0676
4.5959
.6791
23
2.5455
Accept
Uncertain
r.n
(3) Aggravated
(5) Burglary
-32.0507
7.6567
-43.8838
3.4497
-221.2303
3.7229
.1425
6.4685
.7505
.4941
132.1072
3.3147
.2320
ll6.7742
.9642
.1952
486.0806
.8591
::r:
.6713
8.9743
3.5356
.5850
25
2.3388
Accept
Accept
.4377
34.4658
2.9364
.7442
25
2.3446
Accept
Accept
.4242
62.8834
1.7629
.3335
25
1.4548
Accept
Uncertain
.5106
374.4746
2.2474
.4058
25
1.7641
Accept
Accept
tr:1
(J
(J
zo>
z>
tj
(J
:;d
S:
:;d
AUTOREGRESSIVE FORM
Multiple R2 Adjusted
Durbin's h
-1% test
-5% test
Griliches Criterion
Cochrane-Orcutt Correction,
Effect upon Household Activity
Unemployment Rate as Control,
Effect Upon Household Activity
o
>
t""'
(4) Robbery
Assa~lt
.9823
-1.3751
Accept
Accept
Accept
.9888
-.7487
Accept
Accept
Accept
.9961
.9709
Accept
Accept
Accept
.9768
1.5490
Accept
Accept
Accept
.9859
1.1445
Accept
Accept
Accept
Minimal
Mini mal
Mini mal
Mini mal
Mnima)
Minimal
Mini mal
Mini mal
Mini mal
Mnima)
>
.....,
tr:1
.....,
:;d
ztj
r.n
0\
604
DISCUSSION
605
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D.
Westoff, 1953; Westoff et al., 1961; Westoffet al., 1963; Boyd, 1973). The cumulative research evidence, however, has been
inconclusive, if not totally negative.
Scarcely any substantial basis has been
found for the conclusion that social mobility accounts for additional variation in fertility above and beyond that which is
associated with measures of origin and
destination position themselves (e.g.,
Duncan, 1966; Boyd, 1973).
For the most part, explanations of these
negative results, as distinct from theoretical interpretations that are consonant with
the idea that knowledge of origin and destination positions suffices to explain the
fertility ofthe mobile (e.g., Blau, 1956:29),
have taken either oftwo tacks. On the one
hand, they have suggested that the
methodological basis for assessing relationships between mobility and fertility is
biased against the discovery of such relationships (e.g., Hope, 1971; 1975; Lopreato et al., 1976). On the other hand, they