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given moment, which is the sum total of all the judgments based on all the information
known to investors and speculators about that stock." -- Forbes 1978
As a result, Grantham didn't believe that there were any bargains to be found in the
market. A $50 stock is worth $50. That said, some people can find bargains, but they do
this by making intelligent, informed decisions about the future.
He says one of the safest predictions to make is as follows: A group of highly profitable
companies will become less profitable as time passes. The high profits will attract
competition. Conversely, a group of low-profit companies will tend to become more
profitable. Further, competition will drift away, and no new capacity will be built. This is
a theory, of course, but Jeremy Grantham believed that this theory was a rough, but an
accurate guide of predicting market movements.
An example given is Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE:AVP). When the company was rising
high during the early 70s, few investors bothered to buy into the second-tier stocks
trading at low multiples, as they were trading far below the rest of the market's
valuation. From 1972 to 1974 the perfect trade would have been to sell Avon and buy
the second-tier stocks. Several years later the market rewarded the risk takers, and those
who held Avon lost money while investors who had gone for the low P/E, second-tier
stocks, reaped big gains.
"A Grantham dictum: 'If a stock is comfortable to buy, don't buy it.' Right now Avon is
once again comfortable to own, but Chase Manhattan isn't. Grantham's accounts are
heavily in Chase Manhatten and out of Avon." -- Forbes 1978
To define what is comfortable and uncomfortable, Grantham and his team used a
number of screens to measure relative value -- looking for groups of stocks that trade at
discounts to the rest of the market. Grantham's most valuable screen was the "present
value" screen, which meant, according to Forbes:
investors avoid low return industries. The results, as Forbes puts it, is that the wretched
inherit the earth.
But there are times when the dog-buyers suffer and contrarians have to swim against
the tide, stomaching losses. Dull large-caps and medium-sized companies (medium by
70s standards of $5 million to $40 million) are Grantham's favorites.
"Eighty percent of the time they are better value because 80% of the time they are less
comfortable to own."
The article then draws to a close by discussing Grantham's view on the market for the
next few years. Not where the market is heading but how investor attitudes will change.
He predicted that active management will die out as investors find value in index funds
at a lower cost. Moreover, Jeremey Grantham stated that he would not let his fund's
AUM exceed $200 million.
The Forbes article ends:
"Meanwhile, there it is folks: Cut your profits and let your losers run. If you've got the
guts for it and can avoid being swayed by market letters and cocktail party chatter,
Grantham says, you can beat the market that way. If you have the guts for it."