Sisis rise has been good for Israel, but

could
he become a liability?
Meron Rapoport

Isra
eli officials described Sisi coming to power as a miracle, but his wars against the Muslim Brotherhood
and Hamas seem too extreme, even for them

Monday 27 July 2015

In November 2012, a few months after

Mohamed Morsi became president in Egypt's first free elections, Amos Gilad,
director of political-military affairs in Israel's defence ministry and holder of the
Egyptian portfolio in the Israeli establishment for many years, expressed his

concern about the state of affairs in Egypt following Morsi's victory.

"Out of desire for democracy," warned Gilad, "a terrible dictatorship is emerging in
Egypt.
Two years later, after Morsi was toppled in a military coup, and after more than a
thousand of his followers from the Muslim Brotherhood movement were killed by
Egyptian security forces, Gilad was very much relieved.
"A miracle has happened to us," he said in March 2014, "General [Abdel Fatah] alSisi chased away the Muslim Brotherhood and our relations with the Egyptians are
good. The hate against Israel has softened."
In a nutshell, Gilad's remarks represent Israel's official attitude towards Sisi's
Egypt: a "terrible" and dangerous regime turned "miraculously" into a friendly
government.
So friendly, in fact, that Israel has allowed what it did not even grant to expresident Hosni Mubarak, once considered Israel's strongest ally in the region:
that is for Egypt to send tanks, combat helicopters and even F-16 fighter jets into
the Sinai peninsula.
Weapons such as these have been strictly forbidden in areas close to the Israeli
border according the peace treaty between the two countries signed in 1979.
As Gilad's words reveal, Israel directly benefited from Sisi's repression of the
Muslim Brotherhood and, above all, from the association made by Sisi between
them and Hamas.
This was evident during Operation Protective Edge last summer, when Egypt
completely sealed off its border. In recent months it went even further by creating
a buffer zone on the Egyptian side of its border with Rafah, evicting hundreds of
local families from their homes and bulldozing homes along the border.
Never, even in Mubaraks time, was the siege on the Gaza Strip so complete.
Israel's profits were not only military. The Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire, set
out during the early days of the 2014 war, was quickly adopted by Israel as it did
not include any commitment for the lifting of the siege on Gaza.
After 50 days of fighting, in which Hamas possibly fared better than expected, it
eventually had to accept terms very similar to the first Egyptian offer. Egypt was,
therefore, crucial in achieving what Israel conceived as a political victory.
In addition to the military and political advantages, which Israel acquired thanks to

the persistent - if not obsessive - Egyptian campaign against Hamas, came new
rhetoric in Cairo.
"In Mubarak's times Egypt cooperated with Israel, but its rhetoric was anti-Israeli
or even anti-Semitic," says Shimrit Meir, an Israeli expert on Arab affairs and
editor of an Arab language site, Al Masdar.
"In Morsi's times, the rhetoric matched the policy. In Sisi's times we are hearing
open positive voices towards Israel. This is a novelty.
In view of these developments, it is easy to understand why many in Israel, in
government and in the media, joined Gilad in seeing Sisi's Egypt as a strategic ally
for Israel in the Middle East.
The rise of the Islamic State (IS) and other jihadist groups on one hand, and the
struggle against Iran on the other, pushed many Israeli politicians and analysts to
view Israel and Egypt as part of a regional "Sunni alliance," together with Saudi
Arabia and the Gulf countries, against a common enemy, be it Iran or jihadist
extremism.
But the reality is probably more complicated than that. According to Eran Etzion,
former deputy of policy planning in Israel's foreign ministry, this alliance exists
mainly in the minds of the likes of Gilad.
"Of course Israel wants the current regime to stay, as it is better than Morsi's
government, but Israel's main interest is to maintain the military arrangements of
the peace treaty, with Sinai as a demilitarised zone," said Etzion.
In this respect, Israel went quite far in allowing Egyptian forces into Sinai.
According to the treaty, Egypt is not permitted to deploy even one tank in
proximity to the Israeli border. Now, Etzion points out, there is a least one
armoured battalion. This is acceptable as long as Egypt is fighting IS, "but if
tomorrow morning Sisi falls, it will be very difficult to return to the old military
arrangements," said Etzion, explaining why not everyone in Israel is happy with
these developments.
Israel and Egypt do cooperate in military and intelligence affairs, and Israel does
try to help Sisi in lobbying in the US Congress or in facing opposition on the
ground of his human rights record from President Barack Obama or from Europe,
but this cooperation has its limits.
"Israel's ultimate interest is to throw Gaza into Egyptian hands," said Etzion, "and I
do not see Sisi accepting such a deal".

Strangely enough, Israel also differs from Sisi on Hamas.

While the Israeli army pushes for a long-term truce with Hamas and even Israeli
hardliners such as Education Minister Naftali Bennett support such a move, Egypt
still sees this Palestinian organisation as a part of an all-out Islamic plot to
overthrow the regime in Cairo.
"Israel, and even Saudi Arabia, want to calm things with Hamas," said Meir. "But
Sisi is opposed to any compromise."
Israel, of course, has no tears to shed over the brutal repression of the Muslim
Brotherhood in Egypt, but its interests lie elsewhere. Israel wants stability in Egypt,
but the growing violence inside Egypt and, above all, the audacity of IS to attack
Egyptian army positions in broad daylight in Sinai, and even to launch a missile
against a naval ship, may hint that Sisi may not deliver the goods.
"Israel thinks that Sisi is playing with fire," said Meir, referring to the clamp down
on the Muslim Brotherhood and to the death sentences on Morsi and hundreds of
the movement's leaders. "It would have been better for everyone if Sisi would
have calmed down. He is a great president for Israel, but he must remain
president."
In other words, Israel wants Sisi to be less Sisi.
Sisi's fall, of course, would be terrible news for Israel, said Etzion, but it will not be
a uniquely Israeli problem. It will shake the whole Middle East, Israel included.
The more immediate worry is Egypt's difficulties controlling IS. This is the biggest
unknown that threatens Israel, more so after the group appeared so close to its
southern border.
All the high talks about a strategic alliance with Egypt will not help if IS militants
establish themselves in Sinai and start launching missiles on a regular basis on
Israeli cities. And this seems more probable than before.
- Meron Rapoport is an Israeli journalist and writer, winner of the Napoli
International Prize for Journalism for an inquiry about the stealing of olive trees
from their Palestinian owners. He is ex-head of the News Department in Haaertz,
and now an independent journalist.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily
reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
Photo: Protesters in Mataria district of Cairo run as Egyptian police respond with

tear gas and bullets (MEE/Belal Darder)

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