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R
EE E K L Y
P
O Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
27 JULY 31 JULY 2015

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
MCX Gold futures continued to remain under stress today as the global prices
resumed their selling spree. The commodity accelerated its slide this week in world
markets, testing a fresh five and half year low near $1080 per ounce on weak Chinese
central bank holdings data and a meltdown in commodity prices. Latest export data
from Switzerland affected gold. Swiss Customs Administration has released gold
export data for June, which showed that total outflows from the European nation
totaled 98.5 tonnes. The data further showed that just 14 tonnes of gold was
exported from Switzerland to Hong Kong, a decline of 25% compared to May. This is a
proxy of poor Chinese gold demand and traders were reluctant to enter long in the
metal after the slide under $1100 per ounce. A failure to hold above the same mark in
the last session has triggered further correction in gold today. The COMEX Gold
futures are trading at $1082 per ounce, down 1.11% on the day. MCX Gold futures are
trading at Rs 24556 per 10 grams, down 0.72% on the day. Despite economic
uncertainty in some regions, the gold price declined in the first half of 2015. While
puzzling to some investors, this is consistent with market expectations that the risks
could be contained, according to a latest update from the World Gold Council (WGC).
Crude oil may open on negative note as EIA inventory data is likely to give further
direction to the prices on Wednesday. Overall it can move in range of 3160-3280 in
MCX, as per SMC Global forecast. Crude Oil August contract has been trading down
by -0.83 per cent to 3208 level on Wednesday (11.59am).
Strong U.S. dollar and Iran's plans to pour oil on an already glutted market sent U.S.
crude below $50 per barrel on Tuesday. Cooling economies in oil-hungry Asia and
Europe also have weakened demand, sending the price below $50 for the first time
since April. Iran, anticipating the lifting of embargoes on its supply within months
after the recent nuclear deal with Western powers, is said to have loaded super
tankers in the Persian Gulf with tens of millions of barrels of oil awaiting purchase
orders. Iran has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world but sanctions by the U.S.,
and countries in Europe and elsewhere have stymied its ability to obtain U.S. dollars
for international transactions. The slump in oil prices most hurts Middle East
producers and nations such as Venezuela, already beset with protracted economic
problems.
The prices of MCX August expiry Copper were last seen trading at Rs 339.4 per kg, up
0.24%. The prices of MCX Copper tested a high of Rs 339.8 per kg and a low of Rs
334.3
kg. As was
expected
Copper
gained marginally
the weekend.
The USper
Commodity
Futures
Trading
Commission
data showsonmoney
managersAlthough
now
the
gains
have
been
limited
below
Rs
340
per
kg.
hold short positions in WTI futures and options contracts equivalent to almost 110m
barrels of US crude more than a day of global oil demand.
Goldman cut its three-, six- and 12-month copper price forecasts to $5,200, $4,800
and $4,800 per ton respectively, from $5,500, $5,550 and $5,200. On a longer term
basis, it cut its 2017 and 2018 forecasts to $4,500 a ton from $7,000 and $8,000
respectively. It doesn't expect the copper price to rise above the metal's marginal cost
until 2020.
The dollar strengthened broadly after the U.S. Department of Labor reported on
Thursday that number of filings for individual jobless claims benefits in the week
ending July 18 fell by 26,000 to a 40-year low of 255,000 from the previous week's
total of 281,000. The data added to expectations for a U.S. rate hike in the near future.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the central bank is likely to raise
rates at some point this year.

Gold Holds Near

Half A Decade
Low Ahead Of
Weekend.

MCX Crude Oil

negative; Focus on
EIA data.

Copper Gains
Marginally During
Weekend.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.4%

0.0%

6:00pm

Durable Goods Orders m/m

3.2%

-2.2%

July 28 6:30pm

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

5.2%

4.9%

7:15pm

Flash Services PMI

55.1

54.8

CB Consumer Confidence

100.1

101.4

7:30pm

Richmond Manufacturing Index

July 29 7:30pm

Pending Home Sales m/m

1.2%

0.9%

8:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

11:30pm

FOMC Statement

11:30pm

Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

July 30 6:00pm

Advance GDP q/q

2.6%

-0.2%

6:00pm

Unemployment Claims

264K

255K

6:00pm

Advance GDP Price Index q/q

1.5%

0.0%

8:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

July 31 6:00pm

Employment Cost Index q/q

0.6%

0.7%

7:15pm

Chicago PMI

50.7

49.4

7:30pm

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

94.2

93.3

7:30pm

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

DATE & TIME

July 27 6:00pm

7:30pm

2.5M

61B

2.8%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD showed downward
movement, broke its important weekly
support level i.e. 24830 and also closed
below it. Now, if it is able to sustain
below 24800 then next major support
level is seen in the range of 2395023400. On other hand if some
correction happens then 25000 will act
as
important
resistance
level,
maintaining above it next resistance
level is 25500.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 24400 for the targets of 2400023600 with stop loss of 25100.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

24450

24000

23600

24910

25340

25720

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
bearish movement traded in between
channel pattern, found major weekly
support of 33500 and closed above it.
Now, if it sustains below 33500 then
next support is seen at 32500. On
higher side if some correction shown
then 35000 will act as important
resistance level.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 33300 for
the targets of 32000-31000, with stop
loss of 35000.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

33300

32500

31000

34550

35450

36450

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil showed straight four
weekly closing on bearish note and
also gave closing below the 61.8%
retracement level. Now, if it sustain
below 3050 in coming sessions then
next important support level is seen
around 2950. On the other hand
maintaining above 3175 will again pull
it towards resistance level of 3315.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell on highs for the targets of 2950-2850,
with stop loss of 3350.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

3075

2830

2640

3230

3400

3575

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed
downward movement and broke its
important support level of 353 and
found weekly support of 332.35. Now,
if it sustain below 332 on lower side
then next important support level is
seen around 320. On the other hand if
correction happens and maintains
above 345 then next important
resistance will be seen around 360.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 332, with stop loss of 350 for the
targets of 320-315.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

332.35

322

310

345.30

355.85

368

DISCLAIMER

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