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InformationFromRandomnessPuzzle|QuantaMagazine

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INSIGHTSPUZZLE

CanInformationRiseFromRandomness?
Quantasnewpuzzlecolumnasksyoutobelievetheseeminglyimpossible
thatyoucanwinatanumberguessinggamewithabsolutelynoinformation.

OlenaShmahalo/QuantaMagazine

By:PradeepMutalik
July7,2015

Comments(136)

reetings,Quantareaders!Itsaprivilegetopresentthisnewmonthlypuzzlecolumn.I
lookforwardtosharingsomeintriguingpuzzleswithyou.

Solvingpuzzlesisaquintessentiallyhumanactivityweare,afterall,theonlyspeciesthat
solvespuzzlesforfun.Likeallpuzzlecolumns,thisonewillprimarilybeanexpressionofthat
funacelebrationofsuddeninsightsandcounterintuitiveresults,andanexplorationofthe
newchallengesthatfollowfromthoseinsightsanddeepenthem.Butinadditiontofun,Ialso
haveamoreseriouspurposeinexploringpuzzles.Ibelievethatpuzzlesarefarmorethana
recreationalactivity.Somepuzzlesandtheirsolutionscanbeseenasamicrocosmofscientific
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Amonthlypuzzlecelebrating
thesuddeninsightsand
unexpectedtwistsofscientific
problemsolving.Yourguideis
PradeepMutalik,amedical
researchscientistattheYale
CenterforMedicalInformatics
andalifetimepuzzle
enthusiast.

InformationFromRandomnessPuzzle|QuantaMagazine

progress,asreadersbuildoneachotherscommentsand
insightstodiscoversomethingnew,aprocessIexperienced
firsthandinmanyofmyNewYorkTimespuzzleblogs.Puzzles
canalsodeepenourunderstandingofscientificconcepts,asin
thispuzzlewhosesolutionprovidesinsightintothesecondlaw
ofthermodynamics.And,asIargueinarecentMathHorizons
article,Ibelievethatourhumanloveofsolvingpuzzlesisa
reflectionoftheuniquecognitiveemotionallinkthatmakesus
theintelligentcreaturesweare.Tocoinaclassicallymixed
neologism,weareHomoenigmatusinmorewaysthanone.
Evolutionhasmadeuscognitivebeingsbygivingussmall
internalrewardswheneverwesolveapuzzleaveryeffective
strategy.

So,aswesolvethesemonthlypuzzles,welltrytolookdeeper
intotheiranalyticcontentandtheiremotionaldenouements,
butwewillalsosearchforconnectionsbetweenourpuzzles
andproblemsinvariousfieldsofscience.Wellalsoexplore
somefascinatingoverarchingthemesthatholdinexhaustibleconceptualriches.Todayspuzzle
highlightstwosuchthemes:randomnessandinformation.
Readyforourfirstconundrum?
ThroughaRandomLookingGlass
Alicelaughed.Theresnousetrying,shesaid:onecantbelieveimpossiblethings.I
daresayyouhaventhadmuchpractice,saidtheQueen.WhenIwasyourage,I
alwaysdiditforhalfanhouraday.Why,sometimesIvebelievedasmanyassix
impossiblethingsbeforebreakfast.
LewisCarroll,ThroughtheLookingGlass
Todayspuzzleasksyoutobelievesomethingthatseemsimpossiblethatyoucansomehow
winatanumberguessinggameinwhichyouhaveabsolutelynoinformation:
Iwritedowntwodifferentnumbersthatarecompletelyunknowntoyou,andholdone
inmylefthandandoneinmyright.YouhaveabsolutelynoideahowIgeneratedthese
twonumbers.Whichislarger?Youcanpointtooneofmyhands,andIwillshowyou
thenumberinit.Thenyoucandecidetoeitherselectthenumberyouhaveseenor
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switchtothenumberyouhavenotseen,heldintheotherhand,asyourfinalchoice.Is
thereastrategythatwillgiveyouagreaterthan50percentchanceofchoosingthe
largernumber,nomatterwhichtwonumbersIwritedown?
Sinceyouknownothingwhatsoeveraboutthetwonumbers,theonlythingyoucando,it
seems,ismakerandomguesses.Butcanrandomnessgenerateinformation?
Actually,randomnesscanbeverypowerful.Whencoupledwithnonrandomselectionand
givenenoughtimeanditerations(suchasintheprocessofevolution),randomnesscan
exhaustalmostallpossiblevariationsonadesign,inevitablygeneratingexquisiteproductsthat
seemtohavebeenplannedwithobsessiveattentiontodetail.Insomeespeciallydifficult
problems,procedurescalledgeneticalgorithms,whichsimulatetheinterplaybetween
randomnessandselectioncharacteristicoftheevolutionaryprocess,oftenprovidebetter
solutionsthanthebesthumanexperts.Thecrucialinformationthatselectionprovidesinthis
processissimple:Ittellsuswhichoftwoalternativesisbetter.Randomness,meanwhile,has
thetediousjobofworkingthroughatremendousnumberofcases.Sowhilerandomnessand
selectionareequalpartners,thekeyinformationisprovidedbyselection.
Withnowaytoknowwhichalternativeisbetter,whatcanrandomguessesachieve?Well,you
couldguesscorrectlyand,improbably,hitajackpot.Thishappenstoallofusfromtimeto
time,convincingsomepeoplethattheycanaccessinformationinunexplainedways.Butsuch
lucktendstoevenoutinthelongrun.Afterthousandsoftrials,theexpectedoutcomeof
guessinginourgameaboveisexactly50percent,nomatterhowmanyluckyguessesyouhave.
Thisseemslikeadeadend.
Weknowthatrandomnessbyitselfiscompletelydevoidofinformation.InClaudeShannons
famousmeasureoftheentropyofinformation,arandomguessisconsideredtohave
maximumdisorderandconsequentlyaninformationcontentofzero.Wedecryas
pseudoscienceanyattempttogetmeaningfulinformationoutofeventsthatseemtobe
random,asinastrology,palmistry,synchronicity,apparenttelepathy,orTarotcardreading.
Theonlywaythesemethodscouldworkisiftheeventsarenotreallyrandombutarrangedin
someway,perhapssupernaturally,tocorrespondtotheinformationwewant.Andwehaveno
reliableevidenceofthatinanyofthesecases.
Gettingbacktoourpuzzle,inreallifeyoumightguesswhatnumbersIamlikelytousefrom
yourknowledgeofhumanpsychology.Butwehaveframedthepuzzleasanabstractproblem
thatexplicitlydeniesanysuchknowledge:Noinformationabouttheunknownnumbersis
availabletoyou.Icouldbearobotoranalien,whosewaysofthinkingareabsolutelyforeignto
you,orImightuseanunimaginablywackyalgorithmtogeneratemynumbers.Whatnow?
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Sinceyouhavenobasistopreferthenumberineitherhand
overtheother,yourchancesofguessingthelargerone
shouldremainstubbornlystuckat50percent.Theproblem
isimpossibletosolvebypurelylogicalmeans,right?
Wrong!Iassureyouthatthereisawaytobringyour
chancesofchoosingthelargernumberabove50percent.If
youweretobetasumofmoneyforeachguessandreceive
evenmoneyeverytimeyouwerecorrect,youwouldalways
comeoutaheadinthelongrun.
Yourtaskistofindthismagicmethod,explainwhyitworks,
andfigureoutwheretheinformation,ifany,iscoming
from.

PradeepMutalik

ThispuzzlewasbroughttomyattentionbymycolleagueJosephChang,astatisticsprofessor
andchairmanoftheQuantitativeReasoningCouncilatYaleUniversity.Joehasatraditionof
givinghisstudentsapartinggiftintheirlastclass.Hepresentsthemwithtwoimpossible
thingstobelieveinbeforelunch,thusgettingthemtopracticethekindofthinkingtheWhite
QueenrecommendsinLewisCarrollsThroughtheLookingGlass.Theaboveproblemisone
ofthosetwoimpossiblethings.
Readytoachievetheimpossible?Happypuzzling!Andmaytheinsightbewithyou.
(Hint:Ifyouarecompletelylostandneedsomethingconcreteinordertogetyourbearings,or
youarejustanintrepidsoulwholovessuchthings,belowaresomevariantsoftheabove
problemtosinkyourteethinto.Theyjustmightguideyouintherightdirection.)
BonusQuestions
Onestrategyfortacklingdifficultmathematicalproblems,laidoutinGeorgePolyasfamous
bookHowtoSolveIt,istoconsiderspecialcases.Herearesomespecialcasesforyouto
consider.
1. Letssayweplaythisguessinggamerepeatedly,andIpromiseyouthatmytwonumbers
willalwaysbebetween0and10andrandomlygenerated.Whatsyourbeststrategy
now,andwhatisthebestsuccessrateyoucanachievewithit?
2. Weplayavariantofthefirstbonusgameabove,butthistimemynumbersare
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generatedatrandomfromsomerangeofnumbersthatyoudonotknow.Whatsyour
beststrategyinthiscase?
3. ThistimeIoffertoplayyouformoney:Ipayyouadollarifyoucorrectlychoosethe
largernumber,whileyouhavetopayme$1.10ifyoudont(tocompensatemeforthe
factthatintheoriginalgameyoucansucceedmorethan50percentofthetime).Iagree
touseonlydecimalnumbersbetween0and10,usingnomorethanthreedecimal
places.However,thenumbersarenotgeneratedatrandom:Iwillusewhatever
numbersIthinkwillhelpmewinthegame.Shouldyouacceptthisoffer?
4. Nowletsgetbacktosomethingresemblingtheoriginalproblem,whereyouknow
nothingabouttherangeorthemethodusedtochoosethenumbers,butinthiscaseyou
doknowthatthenumberswerepickedbyahumanwhoisnottryingtofoolyouorbe
adversarial.Wouldyouswitchtothenumberintheotherhandifthenumberinthe
openhandis:a)0.6b)5c)10,000?
Havetheseextraproblemschangedthewayyoulookatouroriginalimpossiblepuzzle?Feel
freetoexpressyourselfinthecommentssectionbelow.Wellpublishfullanswersinacouple
ofweeks.
Editorsnote:Thereaderwhosubmitsthemostinteresting,creativeorinsightfulsolution(as
judgedbythecolumnist)inthecommentssectionwillreceiveaQuantaMagazineTshirt.
Update:Thesolutionhasbeenpublishedhere.

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