Even President seems to vote for UNP

Bringing the SLFP under his grip, for a second time, Mahinda
Rajapaksa has done the greatest injustice to the party
2015-07-20
Finally, the president has spoken. And by renouncing the granting
of nomination to his predecessor, the President has effectively
disassociated himself from the election campaign of the UPFA/SLFP,
of which he is the Chairman. He also said he would choose
someone else over Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister
should the UPFA win the election.

ccording to the Constitution, the President shall appoint as the

Prime Minster the Member of Parliament, who in his opinion is most likely to
command the confidence of Parliament. In that sense, the choice is his
discretion, however, should the SLFP Members of Parliament in a future
SLFP government, insist on Mahinda Rajapaksa, and him alone, that would
lead to a major political conflagration, which would end up in an
impeachment motion of the President, presented by the MPs of his own
party.
However, that possibility is fast diminishing, partly thanks to the Presidents
manoeuvring last week. His statement was a mortal blow to the SLFP/UPFA
campaign. The Rajapaksa acolytes have all the right reasons to feel
disappointed and even betrayed.
True that the momentum of January 8 had gradually been losing its metal in
recent months amidst a cacophony of discordant voices (plus an allegation
of a major Treasury bond fraud) and acrimonious fight back by the
Rajapaksa camp.

However, the popular mandate of January 8 is still a potent force, obviously

the only force that can overwhelm Mahinda Rajapaksas demagoguery. I say
it is a potent force because the overwhelming majority of Sri Lankan voters
are pragmatists, who are likely to be content with the gradual democratic
transformation of the country since January 8. If they detest anything that
unfolded since January, that is the destabilising revolutionary changes in
economy, mainly the halting of major infrastructure development projects,
which caused, among other undesirable impacts, unemployment. The UNP
will now find that it is those negative aspects of its economic performance
(Plus the alleged fraud of treasury bonds) that would dent its achievements
of the past six months.
Sri Lankan voters are pragmatists; they are generally conservative and not
major risk takers. The majority Sinhalese electorate has come a long way
since those zombified protests and revolutions of the JVP in the 80s.
Therefore, it takes time for a momentum for political change to build in the
Sri Lankan electorate.
Take for instance, the other instance in our recent history when a party that
has been in power for too long was voted out: the UNP in 1994. The
momentum for that began with the victory of the then Opposition, the PA at
Western Provincial Council in the provincial council elections of 1993.
The UNP won the rest of provinces, outright, sans the Southern Province,
which later became the battle ground against UNPs high-handedness after
it engineered a defection from the Opposition, which later came to be

known as the infamous Fransico Saga.

The PA then won the snap polls in the Southern Province, and then, under
Chandrika Kumaratunga went to win the General Elections in 1994 by a 4
per cent margin.
And finally when the momentum was set in, CBK won the Presidential
Election in the same year in a landslide, winning 62 per cent of popular
votes.
So, it took over a year for the initial momentum that the PA had in the
Western Provincial Council in 1993 to reach its full potential.
What we saw on January 8 this year in Maithripala Sirisenas election to
Presidency was only the beginning of another momentum for political
change. And Sirisena won by a mere 400, 000 votes.
And if history is any guide, that gap would be widening in the future
elections in favour of the party that would best represent the ideas of
January 8 mandate. Majority of voters go with the flow.
In the past, Rajapaksa himself benefitted from this voter behaviour; he won
all local government and provincial polls (Barring the North-East) and
Parliamentary elections throughout his two terms.
However, the movement that ushered Maithripala presidency was listless in
recent times. When President Sirisena is also the Chairman of the SLFP,
while his campaign promises are being carried out by a UNP- led minority
government, such confusion is expected.
The average local voter is justifiably confused as to which one of the two
main parties actually represented the values of the January 8 mandate .

In his speech to the nation, the president finally solved that conundrum. He
implied (The best he could do given his role within the SLFP) that it was
certainly not his own party, SLFP.
On the other hand, his speech last week was an indirect endorsement of
the UNP.
He urged the public to elect people who were suitable to carry out the
mandate of January 8 election, and not to vote thieves and racketeers into
Parliament.
Unfortunately, his own party has shunned that mandate and returned to the
grip of the Rajapaksas personality cult.
Take for instance the speakers at the UPFAs maiden election rally held in
Anuradhapura. The majority of them, Dinesh Gunawardane, Wimal
Weerawansa and Vasudeva Nanayakkara were in the earlier campaign to
nominate Rajapaksa as Prime Minister.
Adorned by massive cut-outs of the ex-President, the rally in Anuradhapura
was a throwback to the series of pro-Rajapaksa rallies held earlier.
Those rallies as much as they were pro- Rajapaksa, were anti- Sirisena.

"Adorned by massive cut-outs of the ex-President, the rally in

Anuradhapura was a throwback to the series of pro-Rajapaksa
rallies held earlier. Those rallies as much as they were proRajapaksa, were anti- Sirisena."

And those sentiments that have since been restrained for electoral reasons,
did not always lie low in Anuradhapura. For instance, Tissa Vitharana
sounded overly ludicrous when he told the crowds, that a future UPFA
government would abolish the Executive Presidency.
Such a verbose is exceedingly disgusting when it emanated from the
election platform of a man who shamelessly removed the mandatory twoterm limits of the Presidency, dismantled independent commissions and
turned his own party and the country into his familial fiefdom.
When the UPFA campaign sinks deeper into its self- made rot, the
incorrigibility of its slogans would also deepen.
However, such a strategy is counterproductive at the national scale and

over reliance on a highly polarising figure would lead the SLFP campaign
nowhere. By hijacking the SLFP and replacing its diversity with his largerthan- life personality cult, Mahinda Rajapaksa has done the greatest
injustice to the SLFP.
Distant comparison to him would be R. Premadasa in the UNP. However, the
latter was faced with a revolt by the enlightened members of the party.
Whereas rather than confronting the Rajapaksa cult, the SLFP heavyweights
have sought refuge in it, believing, mistakenly though, that it is the only way out
from its current troubles. But, that is a miscalculation. They will regret it one
day.
The bottom line is that the momentum of the January 8 movement would
build around the UNP, in particular and the anti- Rajapaksa camp, in
general.
The President has done his part by helping putting the movement that
elected him six months ago back on the track. One would expect that the
UNP would not do something unbelievably stupid to upset this momentum.
As for now, it seems, even the SLFP Chairman has second thoughts about
the integrity of his own party. Even, he could vote for the UNP, if Rajapaksa
keeps spewing his demagoguery.

Follow Ranga Jayasuriya @RangaJayasuriya on twitter

Posted by Thavam