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8.30 am
- 11.30 am (3 hours)
I
I
l.
2.
Answer
3.
Answer any FOUR questions in Section B, using the AL(C) answer book.
4.
5.
Unless otherwise specified, numerical answers should be either exact or given to 4 decimal places.
ALL
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4. A and B are two events. A' and B' are the complementary events of A and B respectively.
l9r
Suppose P(A)=i , P(lvB)=i,
PQqIB)=i and P(B)=* ,where 0<i<l
.
(a)
(b)
(c)
Find
(d)
of
P(l'^ B)
fr
B)
in terms
of
,t
A'
and
B'
5.
The amount of money spent by a randomly selected customer of a jewellery shop is assumed to be
normally distributed with a mean of $ p and a standard deviation of $6 000 . Suppose 24.2Yo of
the customers spend more than $30 000 in the shop.
(a)
(b)
of p
less than $30
she
(6 marks)
6.
Atest
is taken by a class
of
are as follows:
sj v
U U JLrys 68 -ttj
74 79
79
79
59
72
7i 60 7t 82 k
-ti
\
,
where
is Jane's mark.
(a)
(b) If 3
of
fr
student marks are selected randomly from the set of the 18 student marks, find the
I of them is the mode of the set of the 18 student marks.
(c)
A student mark is classified as an outlier if it lies outside the interval (p-2o, p+2o)
where p is the mean and o is the standard deviation of the set of marks.
(i)
(ii)
In order to assess the students'performance in the test, all outliers are removed from the
set. Describe the change in the median and the standard deviation of the student marks
due to such removal.
(7 marks)
LI
t-s
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8.
Abiologist studied the population of fruit fly I under limited food supply. Let r be the number of
dayssincethebeginningoftheexperimentand NO bethenumberoffruitfly I attime /. The
biologist modelled the rate of change of the number of fruit tly A by
N'(')
where
(a) (i)
(ii)
(b)
,rl
and
=I + 'o
,he-^'
are
'
Express
('> o)
positive constants.
It is given that the intercepts on the vertical axis and the horizontal axis ofthe graph of
the linear function in (i) are 1.5 and 7.6 respectively. Find the values of h ard k.
(4 marks)
Take h = 4.5
t
I
'
Hence, or otherwise,
find N(r)
i
+
(iD
M(r)=
\"/
where
fly B
can be modelled by
x(t*L"-k'\*t
-'[- t- ) " '
is a constant. It is known
(l)
(2)
Thebiologistclaimsthatthenumberoffruitfly
of 6.
I willbesmallerthanthatoffruit
[Hint: Consider the difference between the rates of change of the two populations.]
(1l marks)
l8
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896 =
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pulJ (lll)
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'6
10.
Assume that the number of visitors arriving at each corurter in an immigration hall is independent
and follows a Plisson distrlbution with a rneanpl-3.9 visitols per minute. A counter is classified as
busy if at least 4 visitors arriving at it in one minute.
":'
(a)
(b)
An officer checks
counters in a certain minute. Find the probability that at least one busy
counter is found.
(2 marks)
(c)
If
ofthem
(3 marks)
(d)
Suppose l0 counters are open and one of them is randomly selected. Find the probability that
more than 7 of them are busy and the randomly selected counter is not busy in a certain
minute.
(3 marks)
(e)
The immigration hall is called congested if more than 90% of the open counters are busy in a
minute. Suppose 15 counters in the hall are open. A senior officer checks the counters in a
certain minute. It is given that more than 7 of the first 10 checked counters are busy. Find
the probability that the hall is congested.
(4 marks)
20
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'II
l% oftheFarm l "ChoySum"
Farm,4 supplies"ChoySum"tothecity. Pastdataindicatedthat
supplied by Farm A is
Sum"
positive ,"*ti, in the test. on a certain day, "choy
showed
transportld by
(a)
risky'
Find the probability that a lorry of "Choy Sum" is
(b)
(3 marks)
tu-',,
marks)
(c) If t
(3 marks)
(d)
Farm
andFarmBistransportedbySand12lorriesrespectivelytothecity.
(i)
by Farm
Find the probability that a lorry of "Choy Sum" supplied
(ii)
2
(iii)
' It is given that exactly
proUaUility that these
is
rislE'
20
of these
END OFPAPER
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Marks
Solution
l.
(a)
t,-r)(-r-,')
(i)
#=,.[])t*t.V]#(*)2
Remarks
+"
= I --x+-I-
l-o -3
lT- 2
"11t-=u
-l
IM
on (l+
IA
ax)
IM
For both
IA
Is
.'.a=-3
t={
ana
is valid
fo, l! . !
IA
..+=,*1[l).!(L\'
"z[:o] s[:oJ
(b)
\u'
t
..)
.)
,'
/ios- 843
l1l
q 8oo
Ji _2s2e
800
i
I
t.
IA
1A
(7)
{l
il
'{)
2.
(a)
y3 -rry=|
9
r.) o
" du-(I ro'*
d, ") =
IM
tu'
*)
-h
dv-
du
IA
-u
3y2
Alternative Solution
'tl
u=l---
du^lt lra--v
--dy'yt
IM
dy=
du
(b)
y2
2y3
a=z^X
IA
+l
lnu = x2 ln2
1M
1M
du
udx
du
dx
- 2xln'
-rxz
.2xrn2
1A
Alternative Solution
=2" - "*2k'2
du
- "x2tn2 .2xln2
d.r
IM
=2"'.2xln2
1A
IM
26
1.05375
zl+s'zult's+...
LZ
VI
902
---=
t6
I^II
(v)a-@
(or\
l-l--t
(g
,V)d.
^V)a=
uo-iin-to-S-5[itrtu6lV
(or
'l:
(e,lr Ie.l-
I^II
(g
wr)a-
(S)a = (fl
,V)d
!f = ,
2-'*9
NI
t'
YI
,l16
(g
(c)
.r.t
=oz
"'
(q)
YI
(s)a.(s lv)a=@wv)a
(e)
,n
(9)
'lt?ur tggg'91
VI
998'91=
Tsss
ntl
{eess'lr
vt
er+,r.o_rffl rr-
fr *ffii,,
t9S8'9I + \.s-aZt-[(S +
r;u11
=
(q)
E's]?i/
t)vt- Q+ rut]g'S -
r'e'!
998'9t
^,
J+Zt-(Sq-Zq)e's=0'.'
. 0=r .0-/ ueqq
hII
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tls +
{u1-
lz
{q1s'e
,o
YI
(6q7
acurs) C+
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(s*t 7+r\ l.
r sl ='
I
tPlno-'z'r.[
WI
' Z+/\ ry
(S+t
, _ , .Jr.r=*
Je
\o_az.r*[
(e)
'e
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ZV& yrxZ
'*Z- '{E
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-,(e
,*Z'-i-
rynp ry
_.__r_=_
np
$lJ?Iueu
^p
uoBnlos
sryeIAtr
(c)
^p
Solution
(d)
P(A' A B')
=l-P(Av
Marks
Remarks
B)
=t-a
20
Alternative Solution I
P(A'
B')=P(A') -P(A' a B)
-f,_1)_ft)
_
[,_r./_[4.]
Alternative Solution 2
P(A' r: B') = P(A') + P(B)
- P(A' w B')
= P(A') + P(B) - P((A r: B)')
3
)-[,-1 1)
=[,-1).(,t s/1. lo/1.610)
il
20
*0
IM
B'
Hence A, and
Alternative Solution
;,"*++).(,_*)
=3
+P(A'v
A'
Hence
and
B'
B')
since
P(l'u.B')
IM
<I
For
P(l
') +
(B')
P(A'
v B,)
Follow through
(7\
,
I
rtoooo_ tt)
,(
.'.
(b)
oooo )
p(o
selected customer.
IM
o.ro,
.3oooo- P)
6000 )
For standardization
o.rr*
...3oooo_t =o.z
IA
i'e'
1A
6000
# = 25800
_p0osoo<x<:oooo)
p(x < 3oooo)
^(rosoo-2s8oo
[ 6000
\-l
rt-\z
IA
P(l6soo<x<3oooo)
3oooo-2s8oo)
6000
IA
t-0.242
_ 0.4394 + 0.258
0.758
x 0.9201
1A
6
28
For denominator
6Z
()
1,_/
rog
sldecrslut rog
YI
VI
YI
s
e
trrrrr-l':'r't"
|:
+,-l
t/
y,,
Ai
t /lo
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I-
;,
t-
t-
s-
s-
L-
B-
Z_=x
-l't: -- -:
t=t
t,
I
t'
I
'
lz
(x
+e/
l/
xj/
"=nrt-'
(q)
\z)
z- = x sl
VI
VI
rf
sr
Z+x -Z-<-x
Z+x +Z-<-t
tull
LUII
DUE oo+=z-xE
oo-=z-xt
o1 e1o1dur,{w Ie}uozIJoLI
'.'
x
!I
7''a<-x
7+x
" --- unl .'. (e)
r=*e x url = z-xt
Z.
@<-x
'L
--L
(t)
lc0IIoc
sr
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VI
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VI
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Sutpuodseuoc eq1
xZ+l
8I
eqJ (l)
(c)
ZLZ _
s0I
fr
8tr
Z;. lt
srr
tr
(e)
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ecIIIs
(q)
sq1
,$rpquqord pe4nber
VI
'p4
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sr sryeur
uopnlos
SITBI I
Remarks
Solution
(c)
(i)
f (r\ =3x -2
f '(x) =
x+2
(x+2)(3)-(3x-2)(l)
For numerator
(x+2)2
8
a
(x+2)'
So the equation
3h-2
v-ffi=
of Z, is .y - k = f'(h)(x - h)
8
rn*;(*-n1
(h+2)2 y
-(3h-2)(h+2) =916-91,
8x - (h +2)2 y +3h2 - 4h - 4 = o
(iD (1) If
Z1
8(o)
Follow through
4h
h=2 or ]
J
(rejectedsince
...p=3(2)-2
=1
(2) +2
4=o
(pp-l)
P liesinthefirstquadrant)
of t, =@)-t-=-2
-8
Hence the equation of Z, is y -l
i.e.2x+Y-5=0
if
*^not
rejected
SloPe
t,
= -2(x
-2)
I
q
t
l
(2)
The x-intercept
(r3x-2
rz x*2 *.!(1-z)ru
2\2 )"
1A+IA
OR
=fr('-#)*.i(i)u,
IM
For
"8
oR
1.0063
I
I
of Z2 is I
I
x+2
[3x-8hlx+
,ii.;
=!*glo2
30
Io
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YI
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hII
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s's
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(oz#+lrur00r
-l
_ag't-DlZ=
'z'o-
(l),m
VI
os+
= e+l<oztz.o-a
z'o
.-l
srr*$d)rz
VI
9'Sq00I-0S
hII
YI
(0.,r.0r*s'u.') )+
(tz.oa+ 9'7)u1961 =
3 + lnluoor =
^r#J
hII
S.t+
r
tp(,zorz.d#l
=
,z.oa
,r#l=(r)r.r
.,02ry
VI
tz'OaZ'l
=
^P
(r)
(q)
'''oa*$'l=A
ft)
('d'p
YI
YI
9'L-
SI
0
="
o-s'i={-
euo reqlrg
>
ol
lceuoc) LlSt'l o
9'r' ='l
g'l=4V
hII
(g)
[
tlul+11-=ll---:-lul
L U6 I
(r),Nl
YI
,._4,1 +
(o=4 =
$lJelueu
*-=(r),N
(t)
(e)
'8
uollnlos
$lruhtr
e.
(a)
I
l0 (,F*
=
'
(i)
Marks
Solution
Remarks
rro
at
Jo +0, lr*7
2(4)
40
['
IM
)
)
= 1.305182044
IA
=1.3052
So the increase oftemperature is
about 1.3052"C
'
t.1u,')= '
o,z(+0, )
tt"+
a'-(
IA
'
40(t +
)2
>0
IA
Hence it is an over-estimate.
Follow through
A\
(b) (i)
100(ln16)2
31
" l0
IA
t6
lrl -r,r =
1A
xo *22.1980 or 24.5325
(ii)
w'(x) =
2001n
.'.w'(x)<0
630
when
IA
lootr-630< o (.'x>22)
i.e. 22. r.
(lll)
"3'15
1A
23.3361
Accept x <23.3361
dW dlY dx
-
dx
dt
dt
200lnx
630
x40
r-;
+ t'
.tll
IM
l=0, x=22
dwl 2ootn22-630.'/llo
" dl
40
22
lr=o
When
IM
= -0.0134
Hence the rate of change of electricity consumption
units per year.
(iv)
= 100(1n23.3 0518204q2
at I = l0
IA
at I = 0 is
-0.0134
is approximately
IM
630ln23.30 5182044+ 1960
IA
=967.7502 tnits
W(x)
isdecreasing
Therefore the actual electricity consumption is larger than this estimate.
Moreover,
],,
)
1A
l1
32
Follow through
lcsrroc
roleJerunu JoJ vl
I
cc
n
VI
/I+WI+I^tr
9I0'0
^v
tnnn00960'0
(exes
np; o - i ,rGtzts
LenrD
IP
+ slGeus Lsns' 0)
mIF
lcexoc JolBJerunu
JoJ
YI
firn00960'0
r'l+hil+hl
(c)) Sursn
8ur
roleuruouep JoJ WI
II
VI+WI
L9? 9'
0l *
x
s(6Ez,ts Lsrs' 0)]
s ts v s' o)
o rGtzt
,$rpqeqord pannbsr eq1 (e)
9t0'0 =
OI
sGEZEs L9?e'0)
ofc =
,Qrpquqord pennber
eq1
(p)
(e)
YI
,Qt pqeqord
,rrrooor1loo:
hil
s0se3 JoJ
hII
Ienuourg roJ
lcolloc
,Gtztstsvs'0 -
htrI+WI
(e&esDv;o -
r)
8(6zrsrgrs'0) 0lJ +
lz)
VI
hII
,\lI
(eeustgvs'o),Gtztstsvs'o - I) + GtztsLgns'O
zGtztsLgrs'o - r) +
Gtzestgvs'o)GrctsDvs'o - r) + Gtztstgvs'il *
hII
hil
VI
gLs6'0
z uo-iiqo-S-s IIEmIIV8ls6'0 =
,(a*tster;o - DGtztsLg?9'o) ]c
,$y11qeqord pa:rnbar
-86-i1fr
=
eq1
ios-sIiiEu5itV-
,G*tsnvs'o-t)-r=
WI
8LS6'0 =
YI
(pelceqc
sr
Jermoc
ou)4-1=
(q)
(e)
89rS'0 0
VI
,{lyrqeqord uossrod roJ I tl
lcerros sasBc JoJ IAII
6tZtSL9v9'0 =
(ir.izirio)
IAil+htrl
T-t-t-
t-
( c-ac6'e
o
o'r'z6't o't-'r6't
ot-'o6't )
e)
uormlos
$FBIAI
(a)
Solution
Remarks
The requ
+-+-+-+0!|2!3!4l
lM for P(X s 4)
lM for Poisson probability
1.g4e-I.8
with correct 2
0.963593339
= 0.9636
(b)
oo
=r(rri#)
o. =p( z<
=p(Z >2)=0.5-0.47i2=0.0228
-3\
-l '25)
[
)= '('
Pt =l- Po - Pz =l-0.0228-0.1056
(c) (D
08
<
= 0'5
= 0.8716
IM
For standardization
1A
IA
cl pzpt2
+ C? pz2 po
probability
= ctpz2 poz
*fi.rrn'po
lM
pro
= 6(0. I 056)2 (0.022q2 + I 2(0. I 056)(0. 87 I 6)2 (0. 0228) + (0.S7 I 6)4
x 0.599107436
(d)
0.5991
t's'i.-' * (o.l0s6)2 .
r#,
0.241431455) +
t'soi.-"
l.lg635%ng
= 0.0883
34
(0. ssstoi436)
using (a)
wl
\L)
VI
Llsg'0
08rr9r tt0'0
htrt+I^trI
*
"
1 ,(ue JoJ
hll
zLto'0 x
VI
08LtgILtl'0 x
WI+I^It o(rct esozzt o) r r(rct as ozzt o - D .?rl [ . (e s t L6n Loo' il,Gs t 6t too o - r) f cl +
l(lrososozzo'o) r,(rctanzzo'o - r) zlrl[(r9 t L6nLoo'O LGst L6n Loo'o - r),'JJ +
- r) rfrJI o(tgt L6nLoo'il sGgtrctnco- r) fe] =
Ir(utawzzud
ot(L6l6gozzo'o
VI
[,(sr
- il olc
+ (s o'o)
ur(st 0'0
t
168690220'0 =
D] - r =
,firpqeqord pelnber eq1
(l)
(p)
(r)
'
YI
ezzztssts.s
=yffi!.,
NI
hII
'i::,':"*'::i:
s0'0 <
aL6v Lol'O
z(t9tL6n
Loo'o
(t9et6rt00'0)r-t(tgtL6vLoo'o-
+ G9e L6v
too'dcsttur
too'o__
_l _:
"'+
r) +
! . ,*t* rn
<
?(89
L6v
Loo'
il
+ Gw
tav n0'0 -
+
rGs e.t6n Loo' il $ c
r-
r) r-1([9
uev nu Or-1,
...
L6n Loo' o) f
:D3.s t
I
I
I
uorlnlos e^rlBrusllv
s0' 0
,Gw tev nu o -
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
c i r"l
\Z)
VI
hII
tr00'0 =
Gst6vtoo'o) rGstrcvtoo'o - r) =
,$rlrqeqord pernber eq1
(q)
()
((t)(p)
YI
sr00'0
pepre^\e eq UBJ)
t9tL6tL00'0
[.(ro'o)rr(ro'o -
I^trI+WI
r)]
r=
(e)
.Z
uormlos
$lrBI
s{J?lueu
6t
(r)
(z)
01
o1
V 'llJ
uoo,^
qll,^A
(l)
(r) (q)
(l)
'poo3,ften
(r)
(l) (c)
(q)
,Qpepdo4
Jo lno
(e)
L9
0lr)
uI eCueuuoJJod
9
(e)
(r) (e)s
0s
aql
'pooD
'saloldur.,(se oql pug plnoc seleprpuec lsoIAI 'poo8 ,{ren
IBJoUAC
(suorlsanb
y) g uoqcag
r0qunN
uorlsen)
Jo ooroqc
oluos 'rIE{
'pelnber
eulos 'poog
'uoItrBIlueroJJIp
JeIIIIUBJ
lou
oJe,^
seleprpuec
oluos
'pooc
'pelnber uolleulxordde
eql
1ou
plnoc solprpuec
JOJ
JequnN
IEJeueD uI ocusuuoJlod
uoqsen|
(,tos1nduo3)
uo;1ceg
aJuEruJoJJod 6solBplpuBJ
Question
Popularity
Number
(%)
(a) (i)
5l
(iD
Performance in General
Very.good.
Poor. Many candidates were not aware that the second derivative of the given
equatron
,r
d3
*,
rather
than
fI
Good.
(iii)
(iv)
l0(a)
d,2,
find
realise
dI
that
dY
dt
dt
very poor. Most candidates could not interpret their own mathematical f,rndings
and hence failed to make use of the results to make judgement.
97
Very good.
(b)
Very good.
(c)
Good.
(d)
Fair. Many candidates were able to handle conditional probabilities but some
(e)
were careless.
11(a)
83
Very good.
(b)
Good.
Fair.
(d)
some candidates did not do the counting right and missed some of the
eligible events.
40
joint
probabilities
tv
go Surpuelsropun reueq ur dloq ue+o ucc uotluluese:d reelc pue sloqru(s IEcIleuoI{}Btu Jo esn
redot4 't
'l
euos
'JIed
(lrXu)
'slue^e lue^eleJ
Jo Jeqr.unu eqtr Eurlunoc
ur ,Qpcgglp peJslunocue
'serllenbeur Euttpueq
so1eplpuc
euos
(r)(p)
'poog
{:en
'poo8
(q)
&sn
'pooE
(c)
(e)zt
Z9
(%)
IBJau3C ur ecuuuuoJJed
f,rue1ndod
JeqlunN
uo4sen$