7/16/2015

TheTimesofIndia
Title:India:Version1.27Billion
Author:ChidanandRajghatta
Location:
Washington:
ArticleDate:07/16/2015
LetmillionsofIndiansmigrateletmanylittleIndiasbloom
Indiaisjostlingitswaytowardsbecomingthemostpopulouscountryintheworld.At5pmonJuly11,
WorldPopulationDaythisyear,theRepublicclockedinat1.27billion,giveortakeacouplemillion,
accountingfor17.5%ofglobalpopulation.Mostprojectionsindicatethatwith1.63billionpeopleby
2050,IndiawillhavesurpassedChinaastheworld'smostpopulouscountry.Thenumberswillpeakat
1.71billionpeoplein2060beforetheystarttorecede,butIndiawillremainthemostpopulouscountry
goinginto2100.
It'shardtoimagineChandniChowkorChowringheeorChemburbeingmorecrowdedthantheyalready
are,butthatisgoingtohappen.Wearegoingtobepackedintight,withverylittleelbowroom.Here's
onesenseofhowwe'llbebreathingdowneachother'sneck:Indiahasfourtimesthepopulationofthe
UnitedStates(320million)inonefourththespacethatis,fourIndiascanfitintotheUnitedStates.So
essentially,anIndianhas116thofanAmerican'sgeographicalspace.
SmallwondermostIndiansfindAmericavastanduntenanted.
Levityaside,something'sgottogive.Manysmallercountries
SingaporeandBahrain,Netherlandsand
SouthKoreaamongthem
havegreaterpopulationdensitythanIndia.Butitiseasiertomanageresources
whenyouareinthemillions.Ourbillionandhalfisahalfbilliontoomany.
India'sgeographicsizeisrelativelymodest.Itisonlytheseventhlargestcountryintheworldinarea
termsanditishalfthesizeofthesixthlargestnation,Australia.Thiswillensurethatasidefromsheer
numbers,Indiawillremainthemostdenselypackedlargecountryintheworld.
Thestrainonresourceswillbetremendous.Wemayfindthewherewithaltofeedourpeoplethrough
higherpercapitayieldoracreageproductionwithlandthatisbothfecundandfertile,buttakesomething
likeautomobiles.IfIndia,withonefourththeUSlandmass,reachesanywherenearAmericanvehicular
saturation(254millioncarsandtrucksfor320millionpopulation),wearetoast.With50million
vehicles,ourcitiesarealreadygroaninginbumpertobumpermiseryimagineabillion,oreven500
million,vehicles.Ourtrafficsnarlswillbenotjustmileslong,butdayslong.
Coulddepopulationthroughemigrationprovideawayout?Afterall,foreignershavestreamedinto
Indiaformillenniaandhavebeenabsorbedintothelifebloodofthesubcontinenttotheextentthateven
DNAtestscan'tdivineanythingmorethanthefactthatweareofmixedstock.Sowhyshouldn'tIndians
beheadingoutwardsingreaternumbers,helpedbygovernmentnegotiatedpoliciesthatallowfor
organisedandorderlyworkrelatedemigrationinamannerthatwillbeeconomicallyviableand
beneficialtoall?
Already,somecountriesarebeginningtorealisethisandareformulatingpoliciestoattractdiverse
immigrants.TheUS,UKandFranceareamongthecountrieswhosepopulationsareexpectedtoincrease
byatleast25%by2100,muchofitfuelledbyimmigration.CanadaandAustralia,twoofthelargestbut
mostunderpopulatedcountriesonearth,withdensitylessthan1100thofIndia's,arefollowingthe
exampleoftheUSandUK.Bothhavethecapacitytoabsorbalotmore.ButIndiahasnevermade
emigrationapartofitsnegotiatingagendawithanycountry,savesketchilywiththeUSoverworkvisas.
Ofcourse,somecountriesholdlittleattractionforIndians,andsomeothersarestilllockedinanativist
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timewarp.Russia'spopulationwilldropfromitscurrent142millionto111million,andJapan'sfrom125
millionto91millionby2100.Infact(thisisnojoke),Japanwillsellmoregeriatricdiapersthanbaby
diapersby2020,asorrytaleofitsagingpopulation.Bothcountriesneedurgentinfusionofyoung,
workingagepopulationthatfertilityincentives
ofthekindFranceencouraged
alonecannotfix.
Talkofemigrationfiresupbothnativistsandhypernationalistsathomeandracialpuristsandanti
immigrationforcesincountriesthatreceiveimmigrants.Butthatisonewaytonotonlyarriveatamore
levelplayingfieldintermsoftrade(humanresourcesandskillsbeingoneaspectoftradeandcommerce)
butalsoarrestdecliningdemographicsandfalteringeconomy,whileensuringaccesstoresources.If
Germanycandoit,socanmanyothers.
India,withitsdiverseandpluralpopulation,isalreadythemotherlodeofmodernmigrationwitha
diasporaestimatedat30millionworldwide.FromfarminginSouthAmericaandAfricato
entrepreneurshipandacademiaintheUS,tocheesemakinginEurope,Indianshavebeenoneofthe
greatmigratoryforcesinthe20thcentury.
ButNewDelhineedstofacilitateemigrationof300millionormore,notjust30million,toallowitself
somebreathingspaceandgaingreaterglobalheft.Ithastobeinaformulationthatconstitutesawinwin
tobothgiverandreceiver.Already,itisacceptedthatfearsofabraindrainwereoverblown.Indiahas
benefitedmoreonaccountofitsemigratingpopulation.Emigrationmayyetbeseenasanactof
patriotismthatcarriesthesyncreticethosofIndiaworldwide.
Thisneednotbeaonewaytraffic.IfothercountriescanletmanyLittleIndiasbloom,Indiatoocanoffer
manyBestExoticMarigoldwelcomes,notjusttogeriatricpopulationsbutalsotoyoungadventurers.In
2015,crosscountryinvolvestraversingtheglobe
inalldirections.

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