ModellingthedynamicsofHimalayanglaciers

SarahShannon1,TonyPayne2,RichardBetts1,3,AndyWiltshire3,Mohd.FarooqAzam4 and ChristianVincent4

1SchoolofGeography,TheUniversityofExeter,TheQueensDrive,Exeter,Devon,EX44QJ
2BristolGlaciologyCentre,DepartmentofGeographicalScience,UniversityRoad,UniversityofBristol,BS81SS,UK
3MetOffice,FitzroyRoad,Exeter,Devon,EX13PB,UK
4IRD/UJF GrenobleI/CNRS/GINP,LGGEUMR5183,LTHEUMR5564,Grenoble,France

Validation site

Introduction
In the HimalayanKarakoram glacier melt contributes to the total runoff generated in
the upper Indus (40.6%), Ganges (11.5%) and Brahmaputra (15.9%) basins[1].
Populations living downstream rely on this melt water, particularly during the dry
season when demand for water is high. Future melting of these glaciers is of particular
concern because of the potential implications for seasonal water supply.
To assess the impact of glacier retreat on river runoff, we are implementing a 1D glacier
flow line model into the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator Integrated Impacts Model
(JIM). The purpose of JIM is to allow for an integrated, internallyconsistent assessment
of impacts of climate change on glaciers, water resources and agriculture. JIM is
currently under development and includes a river routing scheme, an irrigation scheme
and a crop model.
This poster describes the initial stages of the model development. The glacier model
requires two inputs; knowledge of the present day ice thickness and surface mass
balance (SMB) as a function of elevation. We describe the calculation and validation of
these inputs for a benchmark glacier in the western Himalaya.

Figure 1. The location of Chhota Shigri glacier in the western Himalayas and the major
river systems shown. Glacier outlines from the Randolph Glacier Inventory are shown in
white. Chhota Shigri is a debris covered valley glacier. Runoff feeds the Chandra River
which is a tributary of the Indus system. This glacier is selected for study because
observations of surface mass balance and ice thickness[2] are available to validate the
model.

Model description
Climatedrivingdata

Lapseratecorrectsurfaceair
temperature
Convertrainfalltosnowfallif
elevatedtemperature<0oC
Longwavedownwardradiation
LW csT4

Elevateicetiles

Elevationlevels

Climatedata resolution

Elevationadjustments
tosurfaceforcingdata

The1Dshallowiceapproximationflow
linemodel[3] willsimulatethicknesschange
alongthecentreflowlineofaglacier

SMB=accumulation
snowmelt
sublimation
InterpolateSMBinthe
horizontal&vertical
directions
Initialicethickness

6000 m
4000 m
2000 m

Callthe1Dglacierflow
model

Surfaceelevation

SMB
SMB
SMB

Digitalelevationmodel
resolution
Updateicethickness

Glaciermassloss
inputtoJULES
hydrology

Figure2.SchematicoftheglaciermodelwithinJULES

Initial ice thickness

Surface mass balance

(a)

Figure3ObservedSMB[2] areshownisblackandmodeledin
red.

JULES is run using WATCH ERAinterim

daily climate data on a 0.5 x 0.5
resolution.
A
validation
against
observations show the modelled SMB
agrees
reasonably
well
with
observations. The model is untuned so
it is possible to improve the correlation
with observations.

(c)

(b)

(d)

Figure4ElevationofChhota Shigri andthelocationofthicknessobservations

(a),slopecalculatedfromthedigitalelevationmodel(b),estimatedice
thickness(c)andmodelledversusobservedthickness(d).

Future work

Improve the simulated SMB by tuning model parameters.

Use the modelled SMB and initial ice thickness to run the 1D glacier model for glaciers in South
Asia.

Make future projections of seasonal water availability in the Ganges, Indus and Brahmaputra
rivers.

Poster template by ResearchPosters.co.za

Method:
Ice thickness is estimated using a 90m digital
elevation model[4] and glacier outlines from
the Randolph glacier Inventory[5]. Thickness
at the random points are calculated as

is the basal shear stress, g the gravitational

acceleration, is the mean slope of a 3 x 3
buffer surrounding the random point and f a
shape factor is 0.8, which is a typical value for
valley glaciers[6]. Thicknesses are interpolated
between random points using inverse distance
weighing. Modelled thickness is validated
against ground penetrating radar observations
from five transects across the glacier[2].
References & Acknowledgements
[1] Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B. and Bierkens, M. F. P. (2014) Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier
melt and precipitation. Nature Climate Change. 4 587592.
[2] Azam, M. F. et al. (2012) From balance to imbalance: a shift in the dynamic behaviour of Chhota Shigri glacier, western Himalaya, India.
Journal of Glaciology. 58(208) 315324.
[3] Vieli, A. and Payne, A. J. (2005) Assessing the ability of numerical ice sheet models to simulate grounding line migration. Journal of
Geophysical Research. 110(F01003).
[4] Ferranti, J. d., http://www.viewfinderpanoramas.org/dem3.html
[5] 2014, Randolph Glacier Inventory A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines: Version 4.0. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Media, D.,
Boulder Colorado, USA.
[6] Paterson, W. (1994) The physics of glaciers 3 ed Pergamon Press, Oxford, New York, Tokyo.
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007
2013 under grant agreement n603864 and the Joint Weather & Climate Research Programme (JWCRP)