Melissa LaRoche

Technical Writing
WR_327_C400_S2105
Peer Review Sample of Final Report
Drought Past
California has had several significant historical droughts characterized by the driest hydrology
and longest duration, even though measurements of Californias water conditions have only been
recorded for a small fraction of its climatic history. This is because the collection of rainfall and
stream flow data was only begun around the turn of the 20th century (Water.CA.gov). However,
the data obtained in conjunction with such indirect indicators as tree ring studies does create an
overview of the driest moments of Californias past. Californias droughts are discussed in water
years, with a water year ranging from October 1st through September 30th of the following year.
This is due to Californias wet season generally beginning in October and sometimes, but not
always, running through the end May into early June.
Drought of 1929-34
The years of 1929 to 1934 were characterized by severe drought conditions, not only in
California, but also over much of the Western United States, including the Great Plains that
experienced conditions later referred to as the Dust Bowl. Data even suggests that this time
period may be the driest period in the Sacramento River Watershed since around the mid 1550s
(Water.CA.gov). However, California was only estimated to have a population of around 5.7
million from 1930s census, and when compared to modern times, most major water
infrastructure hadnt been constructed and irrigated acreage was still minute. Coupled with the
low levels of development at the time, the impacts from this dry spell were less significant, even
with the water year 1931 ranked as the second driest in 113 years (Californias Most Significant
Droughts 39). What did grab attention was when Lake Tahoes water levels dropped below its
natural rim, exposing tree stumps at the lakes bottom. This lead to S.T. Harding, a University of
California, Berkeley professor, to use radio-carbon dating to estimate their age. Thus beginning
the further studies of other tree stumps exposed in lakes across the state and region, leading to
the extensive coverage and reporting of periods of drought for the state that we have access to
today (Californias Most Significant Droughts 28). This dry cycle was ended by the near average
water years running from 1935-1937, with 1939 being one of the wettest years on record
(Californias Most Significant Droughts 47).
Drought of 1976-77
The drought of 1976- 1977 also holds historical significance, even if relatively brief when
compared to other droughts experienced. 1976 was extremely dry and 1977 is ranked as the
single driest year observed for statewide runoff. At the time, the population was around 22
million or roughly 60 percent of current levels, while irrigated acreage was also near present
levels, and most of the states major water infrastructure was in place, thus leading to drought
related experiences comparable to modern times (Californias Most Significant Droughts 48).

However, portions of the impacts experienced were due to the perception that there were
adequate water supplies from the completion of various water management projects. One of
which is the California Aqueduct, designed to deliver water to Southern California via a system
of canals, tunnels, and pipelines from the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Northern and Central
California that had been completed less than 10 years earlier. In conjunction with this, California
had been receiving more than its interstate water appropriations from the Colorado River due to
the unused surpluses from both Nevada and Arizona, and there was a general lack of drought in
recent years past (Californias Most Significant Droughts 48). This period of drought would be
one of the first calls of attention to water use in Southern California. Although the dry hydrology
of 1976 would be mitigated by reservoir storage and groundwater availability, by an even drier
1977, agricultural, municipal, and urban water contractors would began receiving smaller
percentages of their water allotments. Reservoir water storage was depleted at a high rate, with
Californias major reservoirs at 57 percent of average by the beginning of the water year 1977
(Californias Most Significant Droughts 51). This was the first push for state wide urban water
conservation and mandatory rationing. The dry cycle was ended by a year ranked in the top
quarter for statewide runoff (Californias Most Significant Droughts 53).
Drought of 1987-1992
Another significant drought occurred between 1987- 1992, with this being the first extended dry
period since the 1920s- 1930s. This drought was also the closest to extended drought conditions
under modern levels of development, with the population at 30 million, or close to 80 percent of
current levels, irrigated acreage at or near present levels, and present infrastructure in place. All
six years were dry, with four of the six ranked in the top 10 percent of driest statewide runoff,
with the driest water year of 1991 ranking fifth place in the runoff record (Californias Most
Significant Droughts 53). Again, California had been receiving more than its interstate water
appropriations from the Colorado River due to the unused surpluses from both Nevada and
Arizona, which initially mitigated the droughts impacts. This lead to most of the states water
users generally not experiencing water shortages until the third and forth years of the drought,
when declining reservoirs, down to about 40 percent by year three of the drought, eventually lead
to substantial water cutbacks.
Only water use defined as critical in need, such as basic domestic use, health and safety, fire
protection and permanent plantings, were permitted. Santa Barbara County would declare a state
of emergency with severe water supply reductions due to limited groundwater and surface water
supplies unable to support residents needs. Emergency measures were adopted including a 14month ban on lawn watering. Agricultural contractors would take the greater reductions over
urban, where in 1991 zero allocations were given, resulting in a gross revenue loss to farms of
around $220 million in 1990 and $250 million in 1991. Cuts were minimized for commercial and
industrial sectors to stave off job losses, though the hardest hit would be the green industry, also
known as lawn and landscaping care for residential and institutional parks and schools, where
losses reached upwards of $460 million in revenue and resulted in 5,600 full-time job losses
(Californias Most Significant Droughts 56). There were also reports of widespread timber
damages throughout the Sierra Nevadas due to bark beetle infestation. This occurs during
prolonged periods of drought, as dried out trees becomes vulnerable to infestation and make
great hosts for reproduction of the bark beetle. Thus resulting in further infestation especially in

large and dense stands of trees. This in turn creates the perfect conditions for wild fire, with
many highly populated areas of Southern California being located in the foothills of what is
referred to as the wild land-urban interface. This period of drought was ended in 1993 by a wet
water year, one that ranks in the top 20 percent of runoff for the state (Californias Most
Significant Droughts 58).
Drought Present
Now, we can consider more recent droughts. The drought period of 2007-2009 was the seventh
driest three-year period for statewide precipitation and the 15th driest three-year period for the
Department of Water Resources precipitation index, which determines a rough indicator of water
supply availability, with 2007 falling within the top 20 percent of dry years (Californias Most
Significant Droughts 59). 2008 was the driest spring and summer on record, with rainfall 76
percent below average. At this time as well, Sierra Nevada snowpack fell to only 39 percent of
normal levels and by February 2009 storage in the states reservoirs reached historic lows of
upwards of 60-70 percentage points below capacities (Californias Most Significant Droughts
101). With the population reaching 36.6 million in the state, this was a time of unprecedented
water restrictions designed for the environmental support of protected fish species that only
further aggravated the impacts of the hydrologic drought. January 2009 would continue with low
levels of precipitation, with state reservoir levels averaging at about 65 percent capacity. This
would lead to the first statewide emergency proclamation being declared in February 2009. The
drought, coupled with the economic recession, resulted in emergency response actions required
for social services to further assist with unemployment and food bank shortages. Idled summer
cropland would reach its largest spatial extent yet (Californias Most Significant Droughts 59).
Following the dry years of 2007 to 2009, we last reach the driest three-year period in the
measured record of statewide precipitation, years 2012-2014, with an all time population high of
38 million. Sierra Nevada snowpack fell to a remarkable and miniscule 17 percent of normal
levels, with the spring snowmelt season well underway (Californias Most Significant Droughts
111). Although only the 12th driest year for the precipitation index, it reflects how Southern
California held the dominant dry conditions. Record dry conditions in December 2013 through
January 2014 lead to a proclamation of a statewide emergency, which was followed by another in
April 2014. The Central Valley (water) Project and State Water Project were at record lows in
2014. At this point in time California was no longer able to receive excess supplies of Colorado
River allotments from Arizona and Nevada, which had always brought aide in during past
droughts. This was due to drought occurring in the Colorado River basin in conjunction with
increased water supply demand by both Arizona and Nevada as well as other states in the basin
(Californias Most Significant Droughts 60). There were expedited processed grants designed to
provide drought response that included water conservation and water reduction programs, as well
as funds allocated to plan projects that would increase local water reliability such as storm water
recapture, the expanded use of recycled or grey water, and enhanced groundwater management
and storage, all thus strengthening water conservation as a whole (Californias Most Significant
Droughts 65).
Comparing Current Drought Conditions With the Past

Two main concerns with the impact of a drought are duration, due to dry conditions reducing
water storage in reservoirs and groundwater basins both of which are used to mitigate drought
impacts, and in turn, the reduction of soil moisture that supports non-irrigated vegetation
(Californias Most Significant Droughts 70). The present regulatory framework for the Central
Valley (water) Project and the State Water Project is markedly different from that of the past in
regards to drought conditions. In discussing this, well first need to address the concept behind a
Biological Opinion. When a federal agency questions whether a project will adversely affect an
endangered species or critical habitat, it will request a Formal Consultation with the United
States Fish and Wildlife Service. A division of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service that serves the
Pacific Southwest Region of the United States is the Sacramento Fish and Wildlife Office, which
is in place to serve the people and conserve the fish, wildlife, and plants of California. When a
Formal Consultation is completed, a Biological Opinion will be written, thus determining
whether a listed species will be put at risk or critical habitat will be negatively impacted. This
will become the basis for the actions that will need to be taken to minimize impacts to threatened
species or habitats (Fish and Wildlife Service.gov/Sacramento). Needless to say that due to
climate change Biological Opinions have been increasingly released over the years with
significant provisional impacts on water supplies. This may sound odd in conjunction with water
shortages, but the fact of the matter is that these habitats and species are vital pieces to the
biological puzzle in California, and without them, biological collapse becomes an increasing
threat, and a threat not to be ignored. Biological Opinions relate directly to environmental use
water proportions and represent a major difference between droughts of the past and present
(Californias Most Significant Droughts 61).
Additionally, all three sources of imported water supplies for Southern California have been
affected by changing institutional conditions that coincide with modern conditions, including
those from the State Water Project and the Los Angeles Aqueduct, which incorporates supply
requirements for dust control at Owens Lake and lowered supplies from the Colorado River
Basin due to the increased use by the states of Arizona and Nevada (Californias Most
Significant Droughts 63). In accordance with this, the United States Bureau of Reclamation
adopted guidelines for lower basin water shortages in regards to Lake Mead and Lake Powell in
2007 that will remain in effect for reservoir operations until at least 2025. These guidelines
delineate the circumstances for when water availability for consumptive use will be reduced for
the Lower Basin states. However, if Lake Mead levels drop below specified indicators, Arizona
and Nevada will be affected before California. All of which are tools that have been placed in
alignment with ways to manage water shortages (Californias Most Significant Droughts 64).
With the changing landscape of Southern California, which includes increased development and
population, some of the economic impacts differ more greatly today than in the past. One of
those being the risk of wildfire which increase with the duration of dry conditions, and can affect
timber resources as well as public health and safety. Especially so when fires occur in wild lands
adjoining densely populated areas, such as the foothills of many of Southern Californias
mountains. Wildfires also pose a threat to small water systems that are often located in the rural
areas that fires are started in (Californias Most Significant Droughts 71). Livestock production,
relying on non-irrigated rangeland, is also weighed heavily upon during prolonged droughts,
although affecting a more dispersed geographical pattern throughout California of both rural and
semi-rural lands (Californias Most Significant Droughts 72). Especially today, with current

livestock consumption rates more than doubled in the country since the 1950s and beef
production in particular using 100 times more water than the production of vegetables (Graham
Hill: Why Im a Weekday Vegetarian).
Lastly, there are three important aspects of monitoring drought that stand out when considering
historical versus present drought related impacts, which include the ability to characterize
statewide groundwater conditions, seasonal wet/dry weather predictions, and improved drought
preparedness for small water systems (Californias Most Significant Droughts 75). Getting a
handle on groundwater conditions is a key factor of drought impact monitoring and response,
and is a factor that was not implemented until the California Statewide Groundwater Elevation
Monitoring legislation was enacted in 2009. This data allows for timely access to, and advanced
recognition of droughts impacts, which may include land subsidence from diminished
groundwater supplies and seawater encroachment in coastal aquifers due to the hydraulic
connections between groundwater and seawater. Continued monitoring legislation, such as the
California Groundwater Management plan introduced in 2014, will further reduce the risk of
drought impacts in groundwater basins and allow for the more sustainable use of our water
resources (Californias Most Significant Droughts 77).
Opportunities exist in the improvement of the spatial scale of Californias near-term climate
forecasting, such as seasonal or monthly forecasts for temperature and precipitation, currently
put together by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) Climate
Prediction Center. The Department of Water Resources is working with climate researchers to
determine the most favorable of opportunities, including coming to fully comprehend the
weather conditions that support the formation of atmospheric river storms that reach the West
Coast, with the absence of such storms indicating drier conditions. These improvements in
weather monitoring will enable forecast-informed reservoir operations, improving drought
response and adaptation (Californias Most Significant Droughts 78). Finally, greater efforts will
be needed in order to address issues with small water systems due to the relative geographical
isolation of many of these systems, making consolidation with larger systems arduous. However,
the Governors Advisory Drought Planning Panel recommended technical and education
assistance, versus monetary, for rural homeowners with small water systems to address drought
awareness and preparedness. Generally the Department of Water Resources will pair up with the
California Rural Water Association to collaborate in this area, including providing assistance
with the regular monitoring of well water levels and leak detection (Californias Most Significant
Droughts 79).