Peshawar Model Town

Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
HOUSING DEPARTMENT
Provincial Housing Authority
Peshawar
MODEL TOWN, PESHAWAR
Infrastructure Development
Public-Private Partnership Model
ASIAN
Consulting Engineers
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
NR.
DESCRIPTION
PAGE
List of Abbreviations
Section-1
Executive Summary
1 to 3
Section-2
Project Description
4 to 9
Section-3
Project For PPP Model
10 to 17
Section-4
Choice of Public Private Partnership (PPP)
18 to 21
Section-5
Financial Model for PPP
22 to 29
Section-6
Conclusions-Recommendations
30
Annexure
31
Annexure-3.1, Roads Cross Sections
32
Annexure-3.2, Capital Cost Estimates
33 to 41
List of Abbreviations
Nr.
Abbreviation
Description
PHA
Provincial Housing Authority
KPK
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PPP
Public-Private-Partnership
BT
Build-Transfer
PKR
Pak Rupees
NVP
Net Present Value
FIRR
Financial Internal Rate of Return
NRM
National Reference Manual
Revenue Kanal
Means 1/8 of an acre / 5,545 sq.ft.
10
Urban Kanal
Means 4,500 sq.ft / 500 sq.yd.
11
Pak Rs.
Pakistan Currency, Ruppes
12
US $
US Dollar, equal to Pak Rs.100
13
NEPRA
National Electric Power Regulatory Authority
SECTION-1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Provincial Housing Authority (PHA), Government of KPK, Housing

Department, Peshawar intends to develop the mega city of Model Town, Peshawar
on the basis of following modes:
Land-Sharing: The land owners will be offered 25% of land so provided in

the shape of developed residential plot, the development charges will be
borne by the allottee; and
Public Private Partnership (PPP): The development of infrastructure on
PPP basis, is proposed to be allotted to the PPP and experience so gained
will be applied to other similar projects as well. The PPP selected on
competitive bidding basis will be offered raw land for its development as
per plans provided by PHA, and PPP will commence sale proceed on
agreed rate/share which will be the consideration amount for execution
and completion of works. The sale proceeds are proposed to be deposited
in a joint account for its sharing between PHA and PPP at the agreed
proportion.
In the Model, basic sharing formula would be as under:

PPP
Fin. Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)

Local disturbance, security
Risk factor
Misc. Issues-Local Security
Total
17% (permitted by NEPRA for IPPs)

05%
05%
05%
32% say 35%
PHA
Fin. Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)

Administrative-Management
Total
15%
05%
20%
The project cost estimates have been determined as under:
Total Infrastructure
Infrastructure for PPP Model
Deferred Infrastructure
Proportioning for PPP Model
US$ 956.83 million

US$ 601.67 million
US$ 355.16 million
= 601.67/956.83 x 100
= 63%
Say 65%
The deferred infrastructure includes:
Sewage treatment plant.

Solid waste management.
Underground electrification.
Telecommunication.
Gas Provision.
The income out of sale proceeds as such will move to PPP in the proportion of 65%,
the balance of 35% will be with PHA for execution of deferred infrastructure at a
later stage.
In the Model, feasibility for the mode of operation has been conducted and finale
of the same is presented hereunder:
Project
PPP Modality
Assumptions
Cost of Infrastructure Development, Total

Cost of Infrastructure Development, PPP
Model
Construction period
NPV - PPP
FIRR - PHA
FIRR PPP
Model Town
Build, Transfer (BT)
- Discount rate 10%
- Cost of Infrastructure development
determined as per the master plan,
and infrastructure so designed.
- Sales proceeds of plots per kanal
will be as under:
o Residential: US$ 40,000
(US$ 80/sq.yd)
o Commercial: US$ 80,000
(US$ 160/sq.yd)
Maximum FIRR for PPP: 35%
Price Variation & Price of Plot: 05%
increase per year.
US$ 956.83 million (present value)
US$ 601.67 million (present value)
6 years
US$ 98.88 million
110% of PPPs Investment; in addition
to proportion of sale proceeds for
development of deferred /balance
infrastructure (not part of PPP Model)
35%. The excess over 35% will be
available to PHA for the development
of additional infrastructure to be
intimated by PHA for the purpose.
The financial model as such is viable and is considered for its implementation for
the proposed Model Town. The experience so gained may be applied for
development of other similar projects.
However, a part of the income from sale proceeds, FIRR-PPP in excess of 35%, is
proposed to be set aside for development of either some social infrastructure
within the town or may be transferred to exchequer of the KPK Government.
SECTION-2
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
2.1
General
The Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) through Housing Department has
decided to develop a mega housing project in Peshawar; intentions are to clear the
backlog and meet the increasing demands for residential plots / shelter. The
PHA/Housing Department identified for the purpose, land of about 106,000 kanals
at Urmar Maira, Peshawar. The objectives of the proposed Model Town include:
Increasing the housing stock in the province for Government Servant &
General Public and to attract the people from other provinces for
investment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Stopping the haphazard growth of Housing Schemes by private sector
developers in the area.
Providing Plot to the poor segment of General public & built up House to
the Government servant at affordable cost.
Appropriate service level that fulfills basic needs of different economic
levels i.e. affordability level of the income groups;
Planning a comprehensive program or the development of satellite,
intermediate, secondary and industrial towns to reduce migration and
drift to big settlement.
Mobilizing resources and generate funds in order to provide finance for
housing especially to the low income group.
Development of appropriate cost-recovery mechanisms to ensure
sustainability of the Model Town.
The PHA intends to develop the proposed housing on Public Private Partnership
(PPP/P3) and mode of a preferred operation is to be selected for the development
of the town.
2.2
Master Planning
2.2.1
Location of the Project

The location of the proposed housing scheme is included in Exhibit-2.1.
Exhibit-2.1, Location of Proposed Housing Scheme

The proposed site, about 106,000 kanals, is located 13 KM approx. from
Motorway (M-1) and G.T. Road on their southern side. The proposed access from
M-1 would consume hardly 6-8 minutes to access the proposed Model Town.
2.2.2
Master Planning Criteria

The criteria for the proposed housing is derived from the National Reference
Manual (NRM) and usually practiced in the country/KPK. The planning criteria so
developed and appropriate to the proposed site are included in Table-2.1.
Table-2.1, Planning Criteria for Proposed Housing
Nr.
1
2
3
4
5
7
Land Use
Residential
Commercial
Public Building
Open Spaces & Parks
Grave Yard
Roads
Total
%age
50
5
6
7
2
30
100
The said criteria included in the above table will permit about 50% of the land under
residential plots.
2.2.3
Site Features
a. Existing Access to the Site

The proposed housing scheme is located along Shamshatoo Road coming from
the city. The existing road network is included in Exhibit-2.2.
Exhibit-2.2, Existing Access to the Site

b. Site Boundary-Configuration
The boundary configuration of the proposed site is presented in Exhibit-2.3.
Exhibit-2.3, Boundaries of the Project Site
The site is bounded by Jallozai Canal in the north, Shamshattoo Road in the west,
Cherat Road on the east and southwards.
c. Surrounding of the Site
The surrounding of the site is Jallozai Housing Colony and UET, Jallozai
presently under development, barren and agriculture land on other sides of the
proposed site.
d. Site Topography
The terrain of the site is rolling to flat; salient features of the site are included in
Table-2.2.
Table-2.2, Salient Features of the Proposed Site
Features
Terrain
Level difference
Natural Water Streams
Habitation
Land Use
Underlying Strata
Remarks
The terrain is rolling to flat
The level difference is about 500 ft.
Quite a lot natural water streams (non-perennial)
are existent in the site
The existing habitation is scattered in the site;
four main settlements are in existent.
The present land use comprises agriculture,
natural water streams, and barren land. A road,
which is in bad shape passes through the site
Based on existing water abstraction wells,
potential of underground water for use in the
proposed housing is certain.
The electricity could be provided to the proposed colony from the nearby
available source whereas gas is to be managed from about location close to the
Ring Road.
2.2.4
Master Planning
The planning of the housing scheme has been completed; the master plan is
included in Exhibit-2.4.
The proposed Model Town has been planned according to contemporary

principles of planning and design criteria of PHA applicable to such housing
projects. The roads in the master plan are as under:
Commercial Mall (Access Road): 1,100 feet

Sector Roads: 150 feet
Roads with Sectors: 40-100 feet
The proposed land use of the Housing is included in Table-2.3.

Table-2.3, Land Use in the Town
Nr.
Description
%age
Kanals
1
2
3
4
5
6
Residential
Commercial & Parking
Open/Green Spaces, Parks
Roads
Public Buildings
Grave Yard
Total
49.89%
5.01%
11.15%
25.50%
6.44%
2.01%
100.00%
52,883
5,311
11,819
27,030
6,826
2,131
106,000
It is noted from the above land use that about 50% of the total land is under
residential plots whereas commercial plots comprise about 5% of the gross land.
Proposed sizes for different categories of plots are given below; however, the size
of odd plots may be different.
2-kanal
1-kanal
10-Marla
05-Marla
03-Marla
75 x 120
50 x 90
30 x 65
25 x 45
20 x 34
SECTION-3
PROJECT FOR PPP MODEL
3.1
General
The entire town comprising 23 sectors is included in the proposed PPP Mode of
development. Upon successful completion of the selected methodology, the same
will be repeated for other similar projects as well.
The zoning plan / sectors in the town are included in Exhibit-3.1.
17-Residential
1-Health(A-5)
3-Institutional /
Education
1-Park(C-2, C-3)
1-Sports(A-4)
Exhibit-3.1, Zoning Plan of the Town

The layout plan of the Town is presented in Exhibit-3.2.
The scope of development work covered under development comprises
development of all sectors excluding internal development of sports, education,
assembly buildings, Apartment Sector and institutional buildings which will be
taken care separately.
10
Exhibit-3.2, Layout of Sectors Proposed for Development
11
The characteristics of the town in terms of residential and commercial plots for sale
by PPP are included in Table-3.1.
Table-3.1, Characteristics of Model Town
Nr.
Description
Unit
Qty
Land to Landlord
25%
Residential Area
49.89%
Total Land Area
Revenue Kanals
106,000
Total Land Area
Urban Kanals
128,260
Residential area
Revenue kanals
52,883
Residential area
Urban kanals
63,988
Area to Landlord
Urban kanals
21,901
Balance for PPP
Urban kanals
42,087
Residential land available for Sale
%age
65.77
It is noted from the above table that area for sale under residential plots is 42,087
urban kanals and 21,901 will be allocated to land owners toward land-sharing
formula whereas commercial area for sale is 6,426 Urban kanals (5,311 Revenue
kanals, Land use, Table-2.3 above refers).
3.2
Roads Network in the Town
Various categories of roads are included in the town; comprise 40-150 feet. In
addition, the Commercial Broadway, 1,100 feet is also part of the road network.
The roads network is included in Exhibit-3.3.
12
150'
WIDE
PR
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EXHIBIT-3.3, ROAD NETWORK IN THE TOWN
15
15
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WI
0'
80' WIDE
DE
WI
15
ROAD
ROAD
DE
WI
80'
AD
RO
80'
AD
RO
ID
ROA
WID
D 100'
80'
10
0'
E
D 80'
ROA
ROA
AD
RO
10
0'
ROAD
AD
RO
AD
AD
D 80'
DE
WI
80'
AD
RO
WID
AD
RO
D 80'
ROA
NG
WID
150'
ID
AD
RO
RO
RO
150'
W
WI
RO
AD
D 80'
100' WIDE
150'
WIDE
ROAD
WID
WIDE
ROAD 100'
ROAD 100'
WID
E
D 80'
RO
DE
WI
80'
150
RO
ROA
AD
AD
ROA
ROA
80'
DE
WI
RO
ROA
150'
DE
WI
AD
80'
E
D 80'
ROA
WID
DE
WI
RO
AD
WID
DE
WI
80'
AD
RO
AD
RO
WID
D 80'
ROA
RO
WID
AD
80'
WIDE
ROAD 150'
D 80'
ROA
RO
E
AD
RO
ROAD
WID
AD
80'
80'
WID
D 80'
RO
AD
ROAD
150' WIDE
ROA
WIDE
RO
80'
ROAD
WID
WID
WID
D 80'
80' WIDE
WID
ROAD 150'
E
WID
ROA
D 150'
80'
RO
DE
' WI
WID
D 80'
ROA
WID
ROA
80'
WIDE
ROA
E
AD
RO
E
AD
E
D 80'
ROAD 150' WIDE
DE
WI
80'
AD
RO
ROA
D 80'
WID
80' WIDE
AD
ROAD 100'
DE
' WI
100
ROAD
WID
80'
RO
ROAD
100' WIDE
150
150
150'
AD
AD
RO
RO
E
D 80'
ROA
AD
WID
AD
DE
' WI
RO
80'
AD
AD
RO
WID
RO
80' WIDE
WID
ROA
RO
80'
ROAD
RO
WID
AD
80' WIDE
AD
80'
RO
AD
RO
ROAD 80' WIDE
ROAD
D 80'
E
WID
150'
DE
WI
RO
AD
ROA
80'
AD
RO
G
RIN
RO
AD
The length of various category of roads in the Town is included in Table-3.2

Table-3.2, Length of various Category Roads in the Town
Sr. Nr.
Roads Wide
Roads Length ft
1100'
23,956
150'
266,800
100'
130,887
80'
285,585
60'
361,997
50'
688,450
40'
583,207
Total, ft
Total, km
2,340,882
713.68
It is evident from the table that about 714 km of various types of roads are part of
the PPP Model. The typical road cross sections of the said roads are included in
Annexure-3.1.
The intended provisions for the model are as under:
PPP Model
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
Roads & Allied Works

Water Supply System
Sewerage
Storm Water Drainage
Ducts for Underground Electricity & Gas
Landscaping-Development of Parks
Deferred
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Underground Electrification
Sewage Treatment Plant
Solid Wastes Management
Telecommunication
Gas
The said deferring of infrastructure is necessitated due to significant periods

between the development and colonization when such facilities are either not
immediately needed or may deteriorate over the period due to being in idle
situation.
14
The infrastructure included in the model in quantitative form is included in Table3.3.

Table-3.3, Abstract of Infrastructure in Quantitative Form
Road Work of various category roads

Water Supply
Installation of Tube Wells, 2 cusecs capacity
HDPE Piping, PN-8, 90 mm -250 mm
Sewerage
RCC Pipe, 9 72
Surface Drainage,
Construction of catch pit complete in all respects
Battery of Box Culverts, 10 ft x 10 ft
Road crossings for Electrical Conduit
Single circuit containing 2 barrels of RCC pipes
Double circuit containing 4 barrels of RCC pipes
Landscaping-Parks
Landscaping-development of Parks
Ducting for Gas
RCC Pipe, 6" dia
3.3
Project Cost
3.3.1
Entire Sectors
Km
714
No.
Rft
80
1,295,000
Rft
1,511,000
Each
Sft
5,500
438,600
Rft
Rft
570,000
175,426
Sft
24,763,000
Rft
701,700
The development cost of entire Town has been worked out as US$ 956.83 million,
abstract is included in Table-3.4.
Table-3.4, Abstract of Cost Estimates
Amount,
million US$
0
908.82
908.82
Nr.
Description
Unit
Quantity
1
2
3
4
4.1
4.2
Land Cost
Infrastructure
Base Cost
Contingencies
Normal
Price Escalation
Sub Total for Contingencies
Consulting Services
Planning and Design
Supervision of Construction
Sub Total for Consulting Services
Marketing, Legal Fee, etc.
Grand Total
kanals
Job
106,000
1
%
3
2%
0%
18.18
18.18
Job
%
LS
1.25%
2.00%
0.30
11.36
11.66
18.18
956.83
5
5.1
5.2
6
15
3.3.2
Provisions of the PPP Model
The cost estimates for the PPP Model is determined as US$ 601.67 million, the
abstract is included in Table-3.5.
Table-3.5, Project Cost Estimates for PPP Model
Nr.
1
2
3
4
4.1
4.2
5
5.1
5.2
6
Description
Land Cost
Infrastructure
Base Cost
Contingencies
Normal
Price Escalation
Consulting Services
Planning and Design
Grand Total
Amount,
million US$
0.00
571.38
571.38
Unit
Quantity
kanals
Job
106,000
1
%
3
2%
0%
11.43
0.00
11.43
Job
%
LS
1.25%
2.00%
0.30
7.14
7.44
11.43
601.67
The cost of deferred infrastructure is worked out as US$ 355.16 million, details are
included in Table-3.6.
Table-3.6, Cost Estimates for Deferred Infrastructure
Nr.
1
2
3
4
4.1
4.2
5
5.1
5.2
6
Description
Land Cost
Infrastructure
Base Cost
Contingencies
Normal
Price Escalation
Consulting Services
Planning and Design
Grand Total
Quantity
kanals
Job
106,000
1
%
3
2%
0%
6.75
0.00
6.75
Job
%
LS
1.25%
2.00%
0.00
4.22
4.22
6.75
355.16
The details of the above estimates are included in Annexure-3.2.
16
Amount,
million US$
0.00
337.44
337.44
Unit
Under the situation, the split-up of development of infrastructure is as under:
Total Project Cost

PPP Model Cost
Infra Cost for PPP Model
US$ 956.83 million

US$ 601.67 million
65%
As such, while determining the financial parameters, 65% of the income from sale
proceeds of residential and commercial plots will be the income of the PPP for the
Financial Model to be developed for the purpose.
17
SECTION-4
CHOICE OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP (PPP)
4.1
Choice of PPP Model
4.1.1
General
The option of PPP mode for developing proposed town (initially on Public-Private
partnership, PPP) basis is adopted; the suggested methodology could be as under:
The Private party be selected through competitive bidding basis that will
construct and transfer the completed works to PHA;
PHA will hand over the entire town free of any encumbrances measuring
about 106,000 kanals;
The PPP will develop the town as per technical specifications and designs
provided to it for the purpose;
PHAs Consultants will supervise the execution and completion of works
ensuring that the completed works fulfil the contract requirements;
The PPP will generate funds through sale of residential and commercial
plots earmarked by the PHA (prescribed proportion of residential plots will
move over to the Land Owners on Land-Sharing Basis). The funds so
generated will be faithfully utilized by the PPP for the timely development
of infrastructure;
Upon completion of development works, the same will be handed over to
the Buyers in close coordination of the PHA which will legally transfer the
plots at its end; and
The PPP in lieu of financial gains out of the sale of residential plots will
either develop other infrastructure allocated for the purpose by PHA to
share the income in the agreed proportion as per Project FIRR.
Different options of the public private partnership models considered and

evaluated for selection of preferred option are included hereunder.
4.1.2
Option 1, Development by PHA
Under the option, the entire development of infrastructure is proposed to be taken

up by PHA itself and sale proceeds to public servants / general public would be
through easy installments; 20% down payment and the balance in 10 equal
installments over a period of 10-years.
18
4.1.3
Option 2, Joint Venture Mode
The Joint venture is a form of public private partnership in which both the PHA
and the private party make equity contributions and pool their resources towards
the project development and implements the project by forming a Special Purpose
Vehicle (SPV). When the SPV is established, it will have a separate legal identity
and it is through this company that the common enterprise of the public and
private partners will be carried out. The PHA and the private party will own the
shares of the joint venture company and there will be a board of directors made up
of representatives of the shareholders.
4.1.4
Option 3, PPP-Build-Transfer Mode
The Build-Transfer (BT) is a contractual arrangement whereby the private party

undertakes the financing and construction of an infrastructure project and after its
completion hands it over to the PHA. The PHA will reimburse the total project
investment by way of sale proceeds of the residential plots, on the basis of an
agreed rate and schedule. This arrangement may be employed in the construction
of any infrastructure project, including critical facilities, which for security or
strategic reasons must be operated directly by the PHA. In the case of Model Town,
the PPP (Developer) would finance and construct infrastructure for PHA, which
will reimburse in the form of developed residential plots over and above the ones
to be provided to land owners on Land-sharing basis.
4.1.5
Evaluation and Selection
Under the options as mentioned hereinabove, the preferred option is the Option-3
i.e. Build and Transfer, therefore, it is proposed to opt for the option; the option
can serve as a sustainable model that can be replicated for all other similar projects.
The joint venture mode is not feasible as having SPV for every sector of the Model
Town project would be an expensive option with respect to company
establishment costs and legal issues.
In addition to this, in joint venture mode, the PHA might be expected to contribute
to working capital, which may not be possible given the current fiscal conditions.
Moreover, the PHA has a greater risk exposure in joint venture than the BT model
(where settlement to the PPP / Developer is made for work delivered) as risk
would be shared.
19
4.2
Proposed Housing Scheme
The proposed housing scheme under the name and style Model Town has been
planned as per applicable planning standards and over an area of 106,000 kanals.
The land use distribution of the scheme is included in Table-4.1.
Table-4.1, Land Use of the Proposed Town
Nr.
Description
%age
Kanals
(Revenue Kanals)
Residential
49.89%
52,883
Commercial & Parking
5.01%
5,311
Open/Green Spaces, Parks
11.15%
11,819
Roads
25.50%
27,030
Public Buildings
6.44%
6,826
Grave Yard
2.01%
2,131
Total 100.00%
106,000
The land for proposed housing is based on land-sharing basis i.e. no acquisition is
involved, but land is shared with the land lords. Under the scenario, the residential
and commercial and available for the PPP to sell it out at agreed rate and schedule
of payment, is worked out and presented in Table-4.2.
Table-4.2, Land available for PPP for Sale
Nr.
Description
Unit
Qty
Land to Landlord
25%
Residential Area
49.89%
Total Land Area
Revenue Kanals
106,000
Total Land Area
Urban Kanals
128,260
Residential area
Revenue kanals
52,883
Residential area
Urban kanals
63,988
Area to Landlord
Urban kanals
21,901
Balance for PPP
Urban kanals
42,087
Commercial Plots for sale
Urban kanals
6,426
Residential land available for Sale
%age
65.77
It is noted from the above calculation that the land secured from the landlords is
revenue kanal whereas the plots allocation will be on urban kanal basis. The
20
residential land available for sale is 65.77% of total residential area, it is evident
from the above table.
21
SECTION-5
FINANCIAL MODEL FOR PPP
5.1
PPP Mode-Basic Parameters
5.1.1
Inflows
The inflow to the financial determination will comprise:
Sale Proceeds from residential plots

Sale proceeds from commercial plots
The sale proceeds of residential and commercial plots are estimated as under:
5.1.2
Residential Plot
Commercial Plot
US$ 40,000 per kanal (US$80/sq.yd.)

US$ 80,000 per kanal (US$160/sq.yd.)
Outflows
The outflows of the PPP Model shall comprise cost of infrastructure less the ones
excluded from the model.
5.1.3
Basic Assumptions
The basic assumptions and anticipated income for sale of plots is worked out and
included in Table-5.1.
22
Table-5.1, Basic Assumptions and PPPs Income from Sale of Residential Plots
Description
Total area of land for residential plots in entire Town
Available residential plotted land for Sale
Percentage of residential area available for sale
Gross Area within the Sector
Residential Area within the Town
Residential area for sale
Area under Commercial Plots
Sale price per 1-kanal Commercial Plot
Sale proceeds from commercial plots
Residential Plots for Sale, Kanals
Sale Price for Residential 1-kanal plot
Sale proceeds for residential plots
Total sale proceeds (commercial + residential plots)
Development of Infrastructure-PPP Model
Price variation & Plot Sale Enhancement/year
5.1.4
Amount
63,988
42,087
65.77
128,260
63,988
42,087
6,426
80,000
514,066,080
42,087
40,000
1,683,480,000
2,197,546,080
601,673,609
Unit
Urban Kanals
Urban Kanals
%age
Urban Kanals
Urban Kanals
Urban Kanals
Urban Kanals
US$
US$
Urban Kanals
US$
US$
US$
US$
%age
Cost of Infrastructure Development
The cost of infrastructure development for the Town works out as US$ 956.83
million and out of this amount, the cost for PPP Model is US$ 601.67 million, the
balance is for execution and completion of deferred infrastructure.
5.1.5
PPP (Developer) Project Revenue
Residential and commercial plots in the housing will be given to the PPP as
reimbursement; it will sell out the plots at a rate mutually agreed between the PHA
and PPP.
5.1.6
Revenue from Residential and Commercial Area
The sale proceeds of residential and commercial plots will generate income as US$
2,197.54 million (present value), and abstract is included in Table-5.2.
23
Table-5.2, Income from Sale Proceeds of Plots

Description
Amount
Unit
Residential area for sale
42,087
Urban Kanals
Area under Commercial Plots
6,426
Urban Kanals
Estimated sale price per 1-kanal Commercial Plot
80,000
514,066,080
US$
US$
Residential Plots for Sale
42,087
US$
Sale Price for Residential 1-kanal plot
40,000
US$
Total estimates sale proceeds for residential plots
1,683,480,000
US$
Total sale proceeds (commercial + residential plots)
2,197,546,080
US$
601,673,609
US$
%age
Total estimated sale proceeds from commercial plots
Development of Infrastructure
Price variation & Plot Sale Enhancement/year
5.1.7
Public Building Plots
The area allocated for public buildings have been excluded in the financial
analysis; the amount so recovered will be utilized in improving the cash flow
during operation of the housing or alternatively utilized for social purposes like
hospital, schools, etc.
5.2
Financial Analysis-PPP-Scenario
The basic assumptions-parameters under the analysis comprise:
Discount Rate
Period of Execution
Sale Proceeds
Max FIRR-PPP
Income to PPP
Price Variation
Enhancement in Sale Price
10%
6 years
5 years
35%
65% of total receipts
05% per year
05% per year
The financial analysis for the case of PPP option has been determined and situation
emerges as included in Table-5.3.
24
Table-5.3, Financial Analysis- PPP, Scenario
Total
US$
(millions)
US $ (millions)
Year
CASH INFLOWS
Advance / Seed Money to Developer
Sale proceeds of Commercial Plots
205.63
154.22
102.81
25.70
25.70
514
Sale proceeds of Residential Plots
673.39
505.04
336.70
84.17
84.17
1,683
879.02
659.26
439.51
109.88
109.88
2,198
571.36
428.52
285.68
71.42
71.42
1,428
180.50
120.33
90.25
90.25
60.17
60.17
602
198.55
132.37
99.28
99.28
66.18
66.18
662
Total inflows
Inflows for PPP(less deferred Infra Cost)
65.00%
CASH OUTFLOWS
Development of Trunk Infrastructure, %age of Internal
110%
Availability payment returned to Government agency
0.00
Total outflows
-379.05
252.70
189.53
189.53
126.35
126.35
-1,264
Net cash flows
-379.05
318.66
238.99
96.15
-54.93
-54.93
165
Cumulative cash flows
-379.05
-60
179
275
220
165
399
40%
30%
20%
5%
5%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
Sale of Plots
30%
Development of Trunk Infrastructure by Private Partner(% of infra

cost)
110%
Net Present Value (NPV)
98.88
35%
Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)
25
It is noted from the above that FIRR for the PPP that:
FIRR for the PPP is 35% which fulfills the basic assumption of the financial
model.
The NPV is US 98.88 million.
Fifty-seven (110) % of the cost of PPP=infrastructure i.e. US$ 662 million is
surplus for allocating to additional infrastructure outside the Town or some
sort of social development within the town.
5.3
Securing PHA Risk
5.3.1
Financial Close
PHA shall take bid security of 02% of capital cost of development and allow
permission to start construction after securing Financial Close as per proposed
financial model, which shall not be less than 10% of total project cost of PPP
(Developer).
5.3.2
Irrevocable Performance Guarantee
PHA would secure its relationship with the PPP (Developer) by employing
irrevocable performance bank guarantee of 10% of capital cost. The performance
bank guarantee is an irrevocable undertaking of a bank to pay a certain amount to
the beneficiary of the guarantee within the specified limits of the guarantee, if the
bank's customer who has requested the bank to issue such guarantee i.e. the
principal has failed to fulfill his obligations towards the beneficiary. PHA would
secure irrevocable bank guarantee from the PPPs (Developers) bank against his
performance in the development work.
5.3.3
Transfer of Plots after Completion of Work
PHA shall limit its exposure by only transferring plots after the Independent
Engineer has verified that proportionate amount of work has been completed. As
plots will be transferred progressively, only small portions of the project is likely
to be exposed to default.
5.3.4
Independent Engineer
Third party Engineer to be engaged on mutual agreement of the PPP (Developer)

and PHA to monitor progress of work and quality, and sign milestone
achievement certificate before land can be transferred.
5.3.5
Step in Right
In case the PPP (Developer) defaults, and is unable to address the reasons for
default with the 45 days cure period, the PHA shall have the right to step-in and
26
address the issue on behalf of the PPP (Developer) at his cost (to be deducted from
Performance Security) or terminate the Agreement and continue the project either
on its own or by replacing with another PPP (Developer) or contractor.
5.4
Risk Register
Table-5.4 provides the risk register specifying some of the major risks faced in
successful development of the project with their risk score and mitigation
strategies:
Table-5.4, Project Risk Register
Risk
Category
Risk
Implication
Likelihood
Impact
Score
PHA may scrap

the project.
Adverse impact
Environment
of surrounding
risk
environment.
10
Political risk
Change in
government
may put the
project in
jeopardy.
Force
majeure risk
Project is
abandoned.
10
Construction
delay risk
The
construction of
the facility is
stalled.
Sponsor risk
27
Risk Mitigation
Termination payment to PPP

as per fair value of project (as
determined by independent
evaluator)
that
remains
uncompensated
through
transfer of plots.
a)
Environment
Impact
Assessment and conformance
to
applicable
laws
responsibility of PPP.
b) Penalty clauses in case of
default on PPPs part.
Termination payment to PPP
as per fair value of project (as
determined by independent
evaluator)
that
remains
uncompensated
through
transfer of plots.
a) Force majeure clauses in the
PPP Agreement that dictate
PPP and PHA to bear their own
losses.
b) Insurance by PPP for
insurable
events
made
mandatory.
Deduction in performance
security at agreed rate of 0.33%
per day.
Design risk
Over design of the

project.
Completion
risk
Completion of
project is delayed,
inconvenience to
end users/public
Cost overrun
risk
Project cost
increases beyond
reasonable limits.
Risk Comparison
The following figure presents the risk comparison of impact and likelihood for
the initial stage risks of the project:
RiskComparison:Impact Likelihood
Likelihood
Costoverrunrisk
Completionrisk
Designrisk
Constructionrisk
Forcemajeurerisk
Politicalrisk
Environmentrisk
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sponsorrisk
Score
5.5
Project design to be
approved by PHA after
review by Independent
Engineer.
Penalty clauses for time
over run in the Agreement
that start with deduction in
Performance Security, and
lead to termination of
Agreement.
PPP to bear the risk
completely
and
take
mitigation measures on its
own.
Impact
It shows that the likelihood of occurrence in blue color and impact in orange color
of the relevant risks. The Sponsors risk has likelihood of one & impact of four.
There is a rare chance of occurrence and termination payments may be taken as a
mitigating measure.
28
The Environment risk has likelihood of two & impact of impact of five.
Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) has to be undertaken before the start of the
project.
Political risk has likelihood of two & impact of five. Even though the democratic
government has been elected for five year term which grants stability, PHA would
offer comfort to the PPP (Developer) with termination payments in case of PHA
scrapping the project.
The Force majeure risk has likelihood of two & impact of five and the mitigating
aspects would be managed in the concession agreement. Operating risk has
likelihood of two & impact of three, performance security clause in the concession
agreement would manage the risk.
The Design risk has likelihood of two & impact of three, a mutual agreement
between PHA & the PPP (Developer) would mitigate this risk. Completion risk has
likelihood of two & impact of four, penalty clause in the concessionaire agreement
would manage the risk.
The Cost overrun risk has likelihood of two & impact of three on the scale,
concession agreement would manage the risk of any cost over runs beyond the
ceiling.
29
SECTION-6
Conclusions-Recommendations
Based on the financial analysis, sensitivity and risk fact, it is determined that the
option of PPP mode may be adopted subject to the following terms:
1. The PPP option be adopted through competitive bidding and Town

development be entrusted to the most response bidder.
2. The financial analysis combined with sensitivity analysis to the extent that
sale proceeds may not produce timely the income for the PPP, some sort of
charms for the PPP may be created by way of enhanced FIRR of the project
development, allowing about 35% as FIRR.
3. Under the analysis, the option of price escalation and likewise increase in
sale price over the period produces more viable option, therefore
considered for its adopting. The FIRR under the option is 35% and
contribution towards development of social/other infrastructure out of
sale proceeds of about 110% of Outflow/PPP-development cost which will
produce more development / other than the Town itself.
30
ANNEXURES
31
Annexure-3.1
ROADS CROSS SECTIONS
32
LRT(FUTURE PROVISION)
LRT(FUTURE PROVISION)
2%
2%
COMMERCIAL
252'
60'
149'
6"
6"
GREEN AREA
12'
2%
2%
6"
PARKING /
CIRCULATION
RIGHT OF WAY
RIGHT OF WAY
CURB STONE
6"
6"
65'
6"
6"
24'
2" THICK ASPHALT CONCRETE OVER

4" THICK ASPHALT BASE OVER
8" THICK WATER BOUND MACADAM (WBM) BASE OVER
10" THICK SUB - BASE MATERIAL OVER
COMPACTED EARTH
6"
65'
12'
GREEN AREA
PARKING /
CIRCULATION
COMMERCIAL
149'
60'
252'

COMPACTED EARTH
A-TYPE
1100' WIDE ROAD
2%
1.5'
2%
2%
NSL
2%
2%
2%
1
T
1
G
E
W
1' 2' 3'-6"

16'
RIGHT OF WAY
RIGHT OF WAY
CURB STONE
E
6"
6"
3'
6"
6"
6"
14'
6'
6"
6"
24'
6"
30'

COMPACTED EARTH
B-TYPE
150' WIDE ROAD
6"
24'
6'
14'
6"
3'
3'-6" 2' 1'
NSL
1.5'
16'

COMPACTED EARTH
PROPERTY LINE
PROPERTY LINE
WATER
LINE
LT
2'
2'-4"
HT
3'-6"
3'-6"
3'-6"
4'
LT
GAS TL
WATER
LINE

MAIN SEWER
COMPACTED EARTH
MAIN SEWER
5'-6"
3'-6"
VARIES
HT
(-) 2 %
VARIES
TL GAS
3'-6"
4'
3'-6"
3'-6"
3'-6"
(-) 2 %
4'-8"
1'-6"
CL
4'-8"
2'-4"
5'-6"
2'
1'-6"
11'-4"
4'-8"
SIDE
WALK
GREEN
24'
CARRIAGEWAY
20'
MEDIAN
24'
4'-8"
SIDE
WALK
CARRIAGEWAY
50'
GREEN
50'
100'
C-TYPE
100' WIDE ROAD
11'-4"
PROPERTY LINE
PROPERTY LINE
WATER
LINE
LT
1'-6"
2'-4"
HT
4'-8"
1'-6"
GAS TL
WATER
LINE
CL
4'-8"
2'-4"
2'
1'-6"
7'-4"
4'-8"
SIDE
WALK
GREEN
3'-6"
3'-6"
3'-6"
4'
LT

MAIN SEWER
COMPACTED EARTH
MAIN SEWER
2'
3'-6"
VARIES
HT
(-) 2 %
VARIES
TL GAS
3'-6"
4'
3'-6"
3'-6"
3'-6"
(-) 2 %
24'
CARRIAGEWAY
8'
MEDIAN
40'
4'-8"
24'
SIDE
WALK
CARRIAGEWAY
GREEN
40'
80'
D-TYPE
80' WIDE ROAD
7'-4"
1'-6"
PROPERTY LINE
PROPERTY LINE
HT
LT
WATER
LINE
MAIN SEWER
2'
2'
2'
2'-6"

COMPACTED EARTH
LT
5'
SIDE WALK
GREEN
18'
24'
TWO LANE SINGLE CARRIAGEWAY
24'
60'
E-TYPE
60' WIDE ROAD
3'-6"
3'-6"
3'-6"
HT
GAS
TL
2'
2'
WATER
LINE
HOUSE SEWER
2'-6"
CL
13'
4'
VARIES
3'-6"
(-) 2 %
3'-6"
4'
3'-6"
GAS
VARIES
TL
3'-6"
3'-6"
(-) 2 %
5'
13'
SIDE WALK
GREEN
18'
2'
PROPERTY LINE
PROPERTY LINE
GAS
HT
WATER
LINE
MAIN SEWER
2'
2'
2'
2'
8'
SIDE WALK
13'
LT
24'
TWO LANE SINGLE CARRIAGEWAY
24'
50'
F-TYPE
50' WIDE ROAD
3'-6"
3'-6"
3'-6"
4'
HT
GAS
TL
2'
2'
WATER
LINE
HOUSE SEWER
2'
CL
5'
GREEN

COMPACTED EARTH
3'-6"
VARIES
(-) 2 %
4'
VARIES
TL
3'-6"
3'-6"
3'-6"
(-) 2 %
5'
2'
8'
SIDE WALK
GREEN
13'
PROPERTY LINE
PROPERTY LINE
HT
VARIES
LT
GAS
LT
GAS
HT
CL
MAIN SEWER
8'
MAIN SEWER
4'
16'
4'
GREEN
20'
20'
40'
G-TYPE
40' WIDE ROAD
8'
GREEN
3'-6"
3'-6"
4'
3'-6"
3'-6"
4'
(-) 2 %

COMPACTED EARTH
VARIES
TL
3'-6"
3'-6"
(-) 2 %
TL
PARK
8 METER POLE
PROPERTY LINE
TL
WATER LINE
4'
2'
2'
2'
14'
WALKWAY+ GREEN
2"
LT
HT

COMPACTED EARTH
Main Sewer
4'
(-) 2.00 %
(-) 2 %
(-) 2 %
(-) 1.00 %
VARIES
4'
Gas
3'-6"
3'-6"
3'-6"
6"
(-) 2.00 %
2'-6"
16'
36'
PARKING
CARRIAGE WAY
70'
TYPICAL ROAD X-SECTION

COMMERCIAL LANE
4'
WALKWAY
Annexure-3.2
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATES
33
Summary of Cost Estimates

Nr. Description
Land Cost
Infrastructure
Base Cost
Contingencies
Unit
Quantity
kanals
106,000
Job
Amount,
million US$
908.82
908.82
4.1
Normal
2%
18.18
4.2
Price Escalation
0%

5
18.18
Consulting Services
5.1
Planning and Design
Job
LS
0.30
5.2
1.25%
11.36

6
11.66
%
Grand Total
2.00%
18.18
956.83
34
Summary of Cost Estimates for PPP

Nr. Description
Land Cost
2
Infrastructure
Base Cost
Contingencies
Unit
Quantity
kanals
106,000
Job
Amount,
million US$
571.38
571.38
4.1
Normal
2%
11.43
4.2
Price Escalation
0%

5
11.43
Consulting Services
5.1
Planning and Design
Job
LS
0.30
5.2
1.25%
7.14

6
7.44
%
Grand Total
2.00%
11.43
601.67
35
Item
Nr.
1
A.
MRS
2013
KPK
2
N.S
1.3
3-27(a)
1.5
Unit
Qty
Unit Rate,
Rupees
Amount,
Rupees
7=5x6
Road Work
1.2
1.4
Description
307(a)+318(a+b)
305(a)+304(a)+318(a+b)
1.6
3-05(a)
1.7
1603(b)+1/1
1.80
Stripping
Sft
Compaction of natural ground
Sft
Excavation in ordinary soil and disposal of surplus
Cft
Making Embankment from soil from outside source (1.5 KM

LEAD)
Cft
Making Embankment from soil from project area
Cft
Sub base course (50 km lead)
Cft
16-04(b)
Base Course-Water Bound macadam
Cft
1.9
16-12(a)
Asphaltic Base Course, 4" thick (10 Km Lead)
Cft
1.10
16-12(b)
AC Wearing Course, 2" thick (10 Km Lead)
Cft
36
212,764,096
225,611,756
11,280,588
159,573,072
159,573,072
62,865,619
55,666,279
25,079,480
15,022,834
4.00
6.58
11.91
20.02
8.17
66.75
74.32
467.63
529.05
851,056,386
1,484,299,746
134,354,057
3,193,863,022
1,303,209,346
4,196,491,272
4,136,909,636
11,727,952,524
7,947,821,340
1.11
13-31
1.12
1.13
1.14
Traffic lane 6" wide with reflective TP
Sft
N.S
Precast curb stones, 14"x6"x12"
Rft
N.S
Studs
N.S
Flush surface type - Single
Each
Flush surface type - Double
Each
Raised profile type - Single
Each
Raised profile type - Double
Each
Grassing
Sft
N.S
2.2
3-46+314(b)+326(c )
2.3
2.4
400.00
585,221
500.00
328,923
600.00
328,923
15.00
117,044,100
351,132,300
2,534,003,011
-
300.00
585,221
175,566,150
234,088,200
164,461,696
197,354,036
1,755,661,500
40,388,224,222
Water Supply
2,1
220.00
11,518,196
Sub Total for Roads
B.
150.00
2,340,882
Installation of Tube Wells, 2 cusecs capacity
Each
80
11,000,000
880,000,000
Earthwork for water lines
Cft
35,113,230
5.25
184,393,616
7-30
Sand bedding for water lines
Cft
7,315,256
28.62
209,347,272
N.S
HDPE Piping, PN-8
90 mm dia
125 mm dia
180 mm dia
Rft
Rft
Rft
250 mm dia
Rft
37
2,048,272
438,915
292,610
1,463,051
150.00
275.00
520.00
950.00
307,240,763
120,701,728
152,157,330
1,389,898,688
2.5
606(a/02)
2.6
N.S
Concrete Thrust blocks
Cft
3" i/d for 90mm PE Pipe
Each
Each
Each
8" i/d for250mm PE Pipe
Each
N.S
Air Release valves with chamber
Each
2.8
N.S
Washout valves with chamber
Each
2.9
N.S
Fire Hydrants with chamber
Each
2.1
N.S
Water Service Connection
Each
2.11
N.S
HDPE 25 mm dia Service Connection
2.12
N.S
Overhead Reservoirs, 100,000 capacity each
Rft
Gallons
40,000.00
877
50,000.00
351
70,000.00
219
40,000.00
219
35,000.00
219
40,000.00
219
4,000.00
59,206
40.00
2,368,248
200.00
6,000,000
56,475,949
-
35,000.00
1,096
Sub Total for Water Supply
38,374,396
35,085,162
17,542,581
15,349,758
8,771,290
7,674,879
8,771,290
236,824,843
94,729,937
1,200,000,000
4,963,339,482
Sewerage
345(a)+314(b)+326(c )
257.55
219,282
Valves- Carrot Top uPVC butterfly valve with chamber
2.7
C.
Earthwork for sewer lines
Cft
38
97,380,691
11.24
1,094,387,579
3.1
7-30
3.2
23-01(c)
3.3
23-03(a)
Bedding for Sewers
Cft
Rft
RCC Pipe conforming BS5911 (9" Dia)
28.62
18,258,880
220.67
1,227,981
-
RCC Class-II, Wall B Piping(ASTM C76 2003)

12" i/d
Rft
15" i/d
Rft
18" i/d
Rft
21" i/d
Rft
24" i/d
Rft
27" i/d
Rft
30" i/d
Rft
36" i/d
Rft
48" i/d
Rft
60" i/d
Rft
72" i/d
Rft
3.4
N.S
Construction of manholes
Each
3.5
N.S
Construction of house connection chamber
Each
39
1,217,259
304,315
608,629
365,178
426,041
304,315
334,746
152,157
8,200
4,100
3,800
54,821
32,892
522,530,791
270,978,493
-
490.02
610.44
764.57
927.64
1,053.10
1,434.31
1,676.77
2,152.32
3,635.81
6,069.24
10,737.99
40,000.00
20,000.00
596,481,079
185,765,841
465,339,719
338,753,341
448,663,276
436,481,560
561,292,262
327,491,265
29,813,642
24,883,884
40,804,362
2,192,822,617
657,846,785
3.6
N.S
Sewage Treatment Plant
PE
3.7
N.S
Solid waste Management
PE
3-46+314(b)+326(c )
4.2
6-05(f)
4.2
20-05(a)
4,4
N.S
Earthwork
Cft
Lean cement concrete
Cft
Drainage Channel
Rft
Construction of catch pit complete in all respects
4.50
Battery of Box Culverts, 10 ft x 10 ft
4.6
Road crossings for Electrical Conduit
4.7
Single circuit containing 2 barrels of RCC pipes 6" dia
4.8
Double circuit containing 4 barrels of RCC pipes
4.9
6" dia along with ends plugged.
3,000,000,000
15,444,336,496
Each
Sft
5.25
3,929,538
183.18
261,969
150.00
2,795,542
25,000.00
5,482
2,500.00
438,565
-
Rft
Rft
47,988,568
419,331,276
137,051,414
1,096,411,308
228,053,552
-
750.00
701,703
20,635,577
400.00
570,134
Sub Total for Drainage
E.
4,250,000,000
Surface Drainage
4.1
6,000.00
500,000
Sub Total for Sewerage & SWM
D.
8,500.00
500,000
526,277,428
2,475,749,123
Underground Electrification
5.1
HT-LT Transformers
Job
5.2
Execution of LT - HT lines
Job
40
10,481,077,957
10,481,077,957
1,439,372,921
1,439,372,921
5.3
Street Light Contract Job
Job
5.4
Street Light System
Job
5.5
Grid Sharing Cost
MW
500
1,063,078,234
1,063,078,234
3,060,654,889
3,060,654,889
5,000,000
2,500,000,000
Sub Total for Electrification
F.
18,544,184,002
Landscaping-Parks
6.1
Landscaping-development of Parks
Sft
Sub Total for Landscape
G.
Telecommunication
Kanal
Gas Provision
Kanal
Machinery, Equipment
Job
45,000.00
106,000
100,000,000.00
619,084,808
619,084,808
30,000.00
106,000
3,180,000,000
4,770,000,000
100,000,000
Ducting for Electrical and Gas
7.1
RCC Pipe, 6" dia Single circuit containing 2 barrels of RCC pipes,
Rft
7.2
RCC Pipe, 6" dia, Double circuit containing 4 barrels of RCC pipes,
Rft
7.3
Providing and laying 6" dia RCC pipe for Gas
Rft
Sub Total for Electrification

-
25.00
24,763,392
570,134
175,426
701,703
250.00
450.00
250.00
142,533,470
78,941,614
175,425,809
396,900,893
GRAND TOTAL
90,881,819,026
41

Peshawar Model Town

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Peshawar Model Town

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Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

251-A, HBFC, Faisal Town, Lahore

email: arslan@asiancon.com Website: www.asiancon.com

C/Mesena, no 83 - 28033, Madrid, Spain

email: igb@grupoigb.com Website: www.grupoigb.com

Peshawar Liaison: Panama Engineer Associate

Project For PPP Model

Choice of Public Private Partnership (PPP)

Financial Model for PPP

Annexure-3.1, Roads Cross Sections

Annexure-3.2, Capital Cost Estimates

Provincial Housing Authority

Net Present Value

Financial Internal Rate of Return

National Reference Manual

Means 1/8 of an acre / 5,545 sq.ft.

Means 4,500 sq.ft / 500 sq.yd.

Pakistan Currency, Ruppes

US Dollar, equal to Pak Rs.100

National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

The Provincial Housing Authority (PHA), Government of KPK, Housing

Land-Sharing: The land owners will be offered 25% of land so provided in

In the Model, basic sharing formula would be as under:

Fin. Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)

17% (permitted by NEPRA for IPPs)

Fin. Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)

The project cost estimates have been determined as under:

US$ 956.83 million

The deferred infrastructure includes:

Sewage treatment plant.

Cost of Infrastructure Development, Total

Location of the Project

Exhibit-2.1, Location of Proposed Housing Scheme

Master Planning Criteria

a. Existing Access to the Site

Exhibit-2.2, Existing Access to the Site

Exhibit-2.3, Boundaries of the Project Site

The proposed Model Town has been planned according to contemporary

Commercial Mall (Access Road): 1,100 feet

The proposed land use of the Housing is included in Table-2.3.

Exhibit-3.1, Zoning Plan of the Town

Exhibit-3.2, Layout of Sectors Proposed for Development

Total Land Area

Total Land Area

Balance for PPP

Residential land available for Sale

Roads Network in the Town

ROAD 80 ' W IDE

ROAD 100 '

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 150' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 100' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 100' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 150' WIDE

ROAD 150' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE

ROAD 80' WIDE