TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.Introduction

2
1.1. Probability
...2
1.1.1. Experimental ........................................
.........................2
1.1.2. Theoretical ............................................
.........................3
1.1.3. Conditional ............................................
.........................4
1.2. Sampling
with
and
without
replacement.....................6
2.Rationale ..............................................................
....................................7
3.Modeling ...............................................................
...................................8
3.1. Game ..........................................................
.................................8
3.1.1. Objective...............................................
............................8
3.1.2. Rules......................................................
.............................8
3.2. Outcome .....................................................
...............................8
3.2.1. Raw
data ..............................................................
............8
3.2.2. Proccessed
data .........................................................13

4.Conclusion ............................................................
................................17
5.References ............................................................
................................18

1.

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Probability
Probability is the extent to which something is probable; the likelihood
of something happening or being the case.1 By using mathematics, one
can describe the chance of an event happening. 2 Probability in math is a
number between 0 and 1 which describes the odds of a certain event
occurring. An impossible event has 0% probability of happening and a
certain event has 100% probability of happening3.
1Probability - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary, MerriamWebster, 2014, <http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/probability> (28.9.2014.)

2 Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark
Humphries. Mathematics for the International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide:
haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.
2 | Page

One can calculate probability either by observing results of an

experiment (experimental probability) or by using arguments of
symmetry (theoretical probability)4.

1.1.1 Experimental probability

In experiments, there are 4 key terms that are used to calculate
probability:

Number of trials: number of times the test has been conducted

Outcomes: the different results for each trial of the test
Frequency: of a specific outcome is the number of times that
outcome has been observed
Relative frequency: of an outcome is the frequency expressed as
a fraction of percentage for total number of trials

To make the terms clearer, an example experiment has ben conducted;

a coin has been thrown 200 times. The outcome can be either heads or tails.
In the table below is the recorded data.
Table 1.
OUTCOMES

The relative frequency or probability is calculated by

Probability ( outcome A )=

frequency of outcome A
number of trials

P ( heads )=

109
=0.545 100 =54.5
200

P ( heads )=

91
=0.455 100 =45.5
200

This ensues that the probability for flipping a coin and it landing on
heads is 54.5% and for it landing on tails 45.5%. This is the relative
3 Ibid.
4 Ibid.
3 | Page

frequency. From no further testing, the only conclusion one can pull is that
these are the odds of a coin flip. But, if one were to have a bigger number of
trials, they would observe chances closer to 50% for both heads and tails5.

1.1.2 Theoretical probability

This probability is based on what we theoretically expect to occur. 6 The
chance for any outcome to happen is the equal. An example, the die. A die
has 6 sides ergo 6 outcomes and if we assume that the die is not loaded,
1
every side (number) has a 6 chance. And so the same formula can be
used:
Probability ( outcome A )=

frequency of outcome A
number of trials

In theoretical probability there are complementary and compound

events.
Complementary events are those were one of the events must occur;
P ( A )+ P ( A ) =1
Considering if A is an event, A is the respective complementary event.
In the example of a coin;
P ( heads ) + P ( heads )=1
1 1
+ =1
2 2

Compound events are the probability of two or more things happening

at once7. These kinds of experiments a conducted with two or more object for
example a coin and a die, or two coins or two dies. There are independent
compound events and dependent compound events.
5 Lawoflargenumbersanimation2.gif (100169) , Wikimedia, unknown,
<http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/Lawoflargenumbersanimatio
n2.gif> (28.9.2014.)
6 Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark
Humphries. Mathematics for the International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide:
haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.
4 | Page

Independent compound events are those where one event does not
affect the probability of the second, third, nth event.8 As an example, tossing
a die does not effect a coin in any way so the two events are independent of
each other and each have their own probability. To calculate the independent
events, saying that A is one event and B is another, one uses this formula;
P ( AB )=P( A) P( B)

For example, to calculate what is the probability of getting heads on a

coin and rolling an even number on a die;
1 3 3 1
P ( headsan even number )=P ( heads ) P ( even number )= = = =25
2 6 12 4
Dependent compound events are those were the outcome of one event
affect the second, third, nth event9. An example for this is playing cards.
There are 52 cards, minus jokers, in one deck of cards. If you pull out one
card, and then another, without replacing or putting the first card back, what
are the chances to pull out an ace and a 5? The general formula is;
P ( AB )=P( A) P( BA)

P ( an acea 5 )=P ( ace ) P ( a5|ace )=

4
4
4
=
=0. 60
52 51 663

After pulling out one card, that reduces the number or cards in the
deck so the second card has a slightly bigger chance to be any other card.

1.1.3 Conditional probability

The conditional probability of an event is the possibility that one event
will occur after another event that has already occurred. 10 It is denoted as
AB read as A given that B.
7 www.shmoop.com/basic-statistics-probability/compound-events.html, Basic Statistics and
Probability, 2014 <http://www.shmoop.com/basic-statistics-probability/compoundevents.html> (28.9.2014)

8 Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark
Humphries. Mathematics for the International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide:
haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.
9 Dependent Events, Math Goodies, 2014,
<http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/dependent_events.html> (28.9.2014)
5 | Page

AB=

P ( A B )
P( B)

An example; there are 20 jars of marmalade, 9 out of strawberry, 7 out

of blueberry and 4 out of raspberry. 13 jars are on the first shelf (6
strawberry, 4 blueberry, 3 raspberry) and 7 are on the second one (3
strawberry, 3 blueberry, 1 raspberry). What are the chances to end up with a
blueberry jar? A tree diagram will help with determining this.
6
13
13
20

7
20

FIRST
SHELF

SJ

4
13
3
13

SECON
D
SHELF

3
7

BJ

RJ
SJ

3
7
1
7

BJ
RJ

First, we must calculate what is the chance to pick a blueberry jar.

P ( blueberry jar )=

13 4 7 3
+ 100 =[ 0.199+0.149 ] 100 =34.8
20 13 20 7

Next, we have to create a condition. The condition is that the blueberry

jar has to be on the first shelf.
P ( blueberry jar on first shelf )=

13 4

100 =19.9
20 13

Next, we calculate what are the chances to pick a blueberry jam jar
after we have chosen to look on the first shelf.
P ( first shelf |blueberry jam )=

P ( blueberry jar on first shelf ) 0.199

=
=0.571=57.1
0.348
P ( b lueberry jar )

10Conditional probability - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, Wikipedia,

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability> (1.11.2014)
6 | Page

So, the conditional probability of picking a blueberry jam jar after we

have chosen to look on the first shelf is 57.1%

1.2 Sampling with and without replacement

Sampling is choosing one object at random out of a group of many.
This technique is used mostly in checking quality at major factories to ensure
that standards are high.11 One can sample with and without replacement. An
example:
From a hat containing 4 names, Linda 5 times, Tom 4 times, Jackie 6
times and Rodger 2 times, you must pick two to do two chores around the
house. If you were to sample with replacement, you would pull a name out of
the hat, that person would get a chore, and then put his name back in,
making his chances bigger to be picked again and the others less. Without
replacement, you would not put his name back in the hat, but would choose
another one minus one name. In the case with replacement, the events are
independent; no matter what name you choose, everyone has the same
chances the first and the second time. But, with replacements, you slightly
change the chances for everyone involved the second time by minimizing
the pool of choices.

11 Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark
Humphries. Mathematics for the International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide:
haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.
7 | Page

2.

RATIONALE

The reason why the topic of probablitity and sampling has been taken
for this investigation is because the topic of calculating chances is very
interesting to me. Blackjack counters use their witt and probability
knowledge to remeber the cards and figure out how to play. And in everyday
bets and card games, the speed of calucating the probability of a certain
card getting tagged out is the key to winning or losing. Overall, I am
interested how to calculate the chances of certain events, faster and possibly
in my mind.
The modeling I chose was to play a game that included sampling
without replacment. The playing material is 8 buttons, 5 green ones and and
3 red ones. A red button is worth 3 points and the green one 1 point. The
players will 10 rounds for 1 game. To win in a round, you have to get 10
points before the other player does. The overall winner is the one with the
most rounds won.
The aim of the invesitgation is for me to create a better understanding
of real life statistics and its use.

8 | Page

3.

MODELING

3.1 Game
3.1.1. Objective
Two player game with 10 rounds, more rounds won, overall winner.
Each player gets a turn to draw 5 buttons from a hat. There are 3 red buttons
worth 3 points and 5 green buttons worth 1 point. After every round, the
player that has gained 10 points in a smaller amount of draws wins. There
are 10 rounds played, the player with more rounds won is the overall winner.

3.1.2. Rules
Per a round, a player can draw five times. First one player draws all of
their buttons, puts the buttons back, followed by the second player. The
winner of the round is the one who gets the 10 points faster i.e. in less
draws. The player with more rounds won after 10 rounds, wins overall. If a
player does not get 10 points in a round after the five draws, he loses the
round. If both players lose the round, it is a tie. If both players draw 10
points, the one with less times drawn wins.

3.2 Outcome
3.2.1. Raw data
I played against my friend Bella and these are the following results.
ROUND
SARA
1
2
3
4
5
9 | Page

1
1
1
3
1
3

ROUND
none
?
BELLA
1
1
2
1
3
3
4
3
5
1
ROUND
none
?
WINNE
TIE
R
ROUND 2
SARA
1
1
2
3
3
1
4
1
5
3
ROUND
none
?
BELLA
1
1
2
3
3
1
4
3
5
1
ROUND
none
?
WINNE
TIE
R
ROUND 3
SARA
1
1
2
3
3
1
4
3
5
3
ROUND
5
?
BELLA
1
3
2
1
3
3
10 | P a g e

4
5
ROUND
?
WINNE
R

1
1
none
SARA

ROUND 4
SARA
1
1
2
1
3
3
4
3
5
1
ROUND
none
?
BELLA
1
3
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
3
ROUND
none
?
WINNE
TIE
R
ROUND 5
SARA
1
3
2
1
3
1
4
3
5
1
ROUND
none
?
BELLA
1
3
2
1
3
1
4
3
5
1
ROUND
none
?
WINNE
TIE
R
11 | P a g e

ROUND 6
SARA
1
3
2
1
3
1
4
3
5
1
ROUND
none
?
BELLA
1
3
2
3
3
1
4
3
5
1
ROUND
4
?
WINNE BELL
R
A
ROUND 7
SARA
1
1
2
1
3
3
4
1
5
3
ROUND
none
?
BELLA
1
3
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
3
ROUND
none
?
WINNE
TIE
R
ROUND
SARA
1
2
3
4
12 | P a g e

8
3
1
3
1

5
3
ROUND
5
?
BELLA
1
3
2
1
3
3
4
1
5
3
ROUND
5
?
WINNE
TIE
R
ROUND 9
SARA
1
1
2
3
3
1
4
1
5
3
ROUND
none
?
BELLA
1
1
2
1
3
3
4
3
5
3
ROUND
5
?
WINNE BELL
R
A
ROUND 10
SARA
1
1
2
3
3
1
4
3
5
3
ROUND
5
?
BELLA
1
1
2
3
13 | P a g e

3
4
5
ROUND
?
WINNE
R

3
3
1
4
BELL
A

3.2.1. Proccessed data

14 | P a g e

Tree
diagram
of all
possibiliti
es when
picking 3 RED
BUTTON
red
buttons
and 5
green
ones out
of 5
draws.

RED
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON

RED
BUTTON

GREEN
BUTTON

GREEN
BUTTON

RED
BUTTON

GREEN
BUTTON

GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON

GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON

The
purple

GREEN
BUTTON

CHOOSE
A
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON

RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON

RED
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON

What are the chances that Bella won in the three rounds that she won?
15 | P a g e

RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON

ROUND SIX
3 2 5 1 4
P (10 pointsmore )= =0.018=1.8
8 7 6 5 4
ROUND NINE
5 4 3 2 1
P (10 pointsmore )= =0.018=1.8
8 7 6 5 4
ROUND TEN
5 3 2 1 4
P (10 pointsmore )= =0.018=1.8
8 7 6 5 4
What are the chances that I won in the one round that I won?
ROUND THREE
5 3 4 2 1
P (10 pointsmore )= =0.018=1.8
8 7 6 5 4
What are the chances to get 10 points if you have picked __________
button(s)?
1. Green
1. Red
1. Green
2. Red
1. Green
2. Green
1. Red
2. Green
1. Red
2. Red
First, we calculate what are the chances to get 10 points or more at all.
P (10 pointsmore )=10 1.8 =1 8

16 | P a g e

a) First picked green button

getting 10more points if
5
4 0.018
P ( button is picked first ) 8
0.045
P ( button|10 ( more ) points )=
=
=
=0.25=25
0.18
0.18
P ( 10more points )
The chances to win after first picking the green button first is 27.7%
b) First picked red button
getting 10more points if
3
6 0.018
(
)
P button is picked first 8
0. 041
P( button10 ( more ) points)=
=
=
=0.227=2 2.7
0. 18
0.18
P ( 10more points )
The chances to win after first picking the red button first is 20.9%
The reason why the chances to win are smaller after first picking out the red
button (worth more points) first is because you are just increasing the
number of 1-point buttons and decreasing the number of 3-point buttons,
creating odds less in you favour.
c) First button green, second button red
button first ,
getting 10more points if

5 3
3 0.018
(
)
P button thenis picked 8 7
0. 014
P(bu tton second 10 ( more ) points)=
=
=
=0. 0 77=7.7
0.18
0.18
P ( 10more points )
The chances to win after picking out the green then the red button is 8.6%
d) First and second buttons green
firstsecond buttons
getting 10more points if firstsecond buttons picked are
5 4
1 0.018
(
)
P
8 7
0.006
P( 10 ( more ) points)=
=
=
=0.0 37=3.7
0.18
0.18
P ( 10more points )

The chances to win after picking out two green buttons is 3.7%
The reason why the chances are smaller to win after picking out two green
buttons is because you would have to pick out all the reamaining red ones,
and as you pick the red ones, the chances are lower to pick one out again.
17 | P a g e

e) First button red, second button green

first button

getting 10more points if first buttonis

3 5
3 0.018
P ( second one )
8 7
0.0 14
P(, second button 10 ( more ) points)=
=
=
=0.0 86=8.6
0.18
0.18
P (10more points )
The chances to win after picking the red button first then the green one is
8.6%
f) Both buttons red
firstsecond buttons
getting 10more pointsif firstsecond buttons picked are
3 2
2 0.018
P ( )
8 7
0.0 03
P( 10 ( more ) points)=
=
=
=0.0 18=1.8
0.18
0.18
P ( 10more points )
The chances to win after picking two red button in a row is 1.8%
The reason why it is less statistically likely to have won after picking out 2
red buttons is because you hace just 1 red button and 5 green ones and a
1
5 chance to pick out the red button.

18 | P a g e

4.

CONSLUSION

From the data which was collected and calculated I have realized that I
did not understand the probability of similar games to this one. I would
think if the most valuble object was picked first that my chances were
better to win the game overall. But, the opposite has been proven to be
true, considering that the chances to win the game after first picking the
green button is 27.7% and the chances to win after picking the red button
first is 20.9%

19 | P a g e

5. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and
Mark Humphries. Mathematics for the International Student:
Mathematics SL. Adelaide: haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.

Basic statistics, unknown

<www.shmoop.com/basic-statistics-probability/compound-events.html> (28.9.2014)

Dependent Events, Math Goodies, 2014,

<http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/dependent_events.html> (28.9.2014)

Probability - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary,

Merriam-Webster, 2014, <http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/probability>
(28.9.2014.)

Conditional probability - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, Wikipedia,

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability> (1.11.2014)

20 | P a g e