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Software Estimation
Steve McConnell
2002 Construx Software Builders, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.
www.construx.com
Construx
Del
ive ring Softw are Proje ct Succe ss
Background
Estimation Book
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v
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Almost-Deadly Sins of
Software Estimation
Sins #20-#11
Sin #20
Sin #19
Sin #18
Sin #17
Sin #16
Sin #15
Sin #14
11
Sin #13
12
Sin #12
13
Sin #11
14
Deadly Sins
Sin #1
Confusing Targets
with Estimates
17
Differentiate Between
Targets and Estimates
v
Sin #2
Saying Yes When
You Really Mean No
20
Schedule Negotiations
21
Sin #3
Committing to
Estimates Too Early in
the Cone of
Uncertainty
Most
estimates
are created
here
Project
schedule
Good
estimates
arent
possible
until here
2x
1.6x
1.25x
1.5x
1.15x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
1.1x
1.0x
0.9x
0.67x
0.85x
0.5x
0.8x
0.25x
0.6x
Time
23
Project
schedule
4x
1.6x
2x
1.25x
1.5x
1.15x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
1.1x
1.0x
0.9x
0.67x
0.85x
0.5x
0.8x
0.25x
0.6x
Suitable only
as estimates
Suitable as estimates
Time
and commitments
24
Sin #4
Assuming
Underestimation has
No Impact on Project
Results
Cost
Effort
Schedule
Overestimation
Underestimation
< 100%
100%
>100%
Sin #5
Estimating in the
Impossible Zone
Puzzle
hill
e
p th
hu
p
m
30
ir ve
D
ile
1m
Ho
wf
ast
?
1m
ile
28
Variation on Sin #5
Estimated
Completion
Time
95%
12 months
75%
11 months
50%
10 months
25%
9 months
0%
8 months
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
30
Jensen
Putnam
1.4
Cocomo 81
1.3
DSN
The
Impossible
Zone
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.9
0.8
Mk II FP
estimating
method
0.7
31
Effort/Schedule Tradeoff
32
hill
e
h
pt
hu
p
m
30
e
iv
Dr
ile
1m
oo
1m
ile
33
Sin #6
Overestimating
Savings from New
Tools or Methods
Sin #7
Using Only One
Estimation Technique
TOTAL
Expert
Judgment
Estimate
4
5
8
11
52
27
55
30
20
20
Calc'd from
Points in
Outline
4
5
8
11
52
36
41
31
23
21
250
794
751
Original
Whole-Book
Estimate
-
37
38
Sin #8
Not Using Estimation
Software
Estimation Software
vs
40
41
Sin #9
Not Including Risk
Impacts in Estimates
Impact
Exposure
(RE)
25%
8 weeks
2.0 weeks
50%
1 week
0.5 weeks
75%
2 weeks
1.5 weeks
25%
10 weeks
2.5 weeks
10%
2 weeks
0.2 weeks
23 weeks
6.7 weeks
Risk
Total
43
Addressing Risk
in Estimates
Software projects are inherently risky
v The total Risk Exposure (RE) is the
expected value of the project overrun
v The RE is where buffer planning starts
v
44
Sin #10
Providing Off-The-Cuff
Estimates
Treat Estimation as a
Mini-Project
Use of guessing and intuition to create
estimates is correlated with cost and
schedule overruns (at the 0.05 level of
significance)
v Use of simple arithmetic formulas is
negatively correlated with overruns (at the
0.01 level of significance)
46
Define a Standardized
Estimation Procedure
Elements of a standardized procedure:
v A clear description of an estimates
imprecision
v Use of multiple estimation approaches
v A plan to re-estimate at pre-defined points
in the project
v Definition of when estimates become
commitments
47
48
Conclusions
49
v
v
v
v
v
Overestimating savings
from new tools or methods
Using only one estimation
technique
Not using estimation
software
Not including risk impacts
in estimates
Providing off-the-cuff
estimates
50
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ive ring Softw are Proje ct Succe ss
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