The poll surveyed a random sample of 2,511 Canadians by Smart IVR on June 29th, 2015.

Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Results were weighted by age,
gender and region. Margin of error: +/- 1.96%, 19/20.

CANADIANS WOULD ELECT CLINTON; BUSH AS NOMINEES

July 2nd, 2015. A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Canadians would choose Hilary Clinton to
lead the Democrats and Jeb Bush to lead the Republicans in the next American election if given
the chance. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.96%, 19/20.
"Canadians approve highly of the job US president Obama is doing, much more than their
American counterparts. The President has not enjoyed approval ratings that high in his own
country in some time", said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet.
"Canadians want to see Hilary Clinton become the Democratic nominee and Jeb Bush become the
Republican nominee in the race for President in 2016. Clinton enjoys the support of almost 55% of
Canadians with her nearest rival Bernie Sanders at just 8%. Jeb Bush gets the nod from 17% of
Canadians with Donald Trump at 11% and even though he was born in Canada, Ted Cruz is at 4%."
"Despite his celebrity and billionaire status, it appears most Canadians are not impressed with the
candidacy of Donald Trump. 65% of Canadians have an unfavourable view of the Donald while
only 18% have a favourable view."
"If Canadians were to decide, Hilary Clinton would beat all comers in a general election against all
comers from the Republican party. Her closest competitor would be Jeb Bush, who would receive
the support of just 16% of Canadians pitted against Clinton with 72%.
"Unlike public opinion of the coming Canadian election that remains mired in a 3 way deadlock,
Canadians have a very clear opinion of the 2016 American election and who should be President.
Hilary Clinton would be the runaway winner in both the primaries and general election if Canadian
voters had anything to say about it."
-30For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
9%

17%

75%

Total Approval

BREAKDOWNS

Total Disapproval

Not Sure

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

50% 48% 45% 49%
33% 28% 25% 20%
4%
7%
9%
9%
6%
10%
13% 12%
8%
8%
9%
11%
319
409
861 922

VERY CLOSELY
SOMEWHAT CLOSELY
NOT TOO CLOSELY
NOT AT ALL CLOSELY
NOT AWARE OF THE STORY
SAMPLE

BC
44%
32%
7%
8%
9%
264

AB
45%
32%
7%
9%
6%
346

Prairies
44%
27%
7%
13%
8%
306

ON
52%
23%
6%
9%
10%
673

Male
47%
27%
7%
11%
8%
1165

Female
49%
26%
7%
9%
10%
1346

QC Atlantic
45%
49%
27%
25%
9%
6%
11%
9%
8%
10%
634
288

Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could for the 2016 Democratic
Nomination: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin OMalley, or Lincoln Chafee?

1%

1%

8%
36%

54%
Hilary Clinton
BREAKDOWNS

Bernie Sanders

Martin O'Malley

Lincoln Chafee

HILARY CLINTON
BERNIE SANDERS
MARTIN OMALLEY
LINCOLN CHAFEE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

52% 55% 52%
12%
8%
4%
0%
0%
2%
0%
1%
1%
35% 35% 40%
319
409
861

HILARY CLINTON
BERNIE SANDERS
MARTIN OMALLEY
LINCOLN CHAFEE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
49%
10%
1%
1%
38%
264

65+
57%
6%
1%
2%
35%
922

Not Sure

Male
50%
12%
1%
1%
37%
1165

Female
58%
4%
1%
1%
36%
1346

AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
52%
59% 52%
52%
49%
9%
5% 8%
8%
10%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
2%
1%
1%
1%
2%
37%
34% 37%
38%
39%
306
673 634
288
346

Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could for the 2016 Republican
nomination: Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Rick Santorum,
Rick Perry, or Mike Huckabee?

4%

6%

17%

9%

11%

JEB BUSH TED CRUZ RAND PAUL MARCO RUBIO DONALD TRUMP

RICK SANTORUM 2%; RICKY PERRY 1%; MIKE HUCKABEE 4%; NOT SURE 46%

BREAKDOWNS
JEB BUSH
TED CRUZ
RAND PAUL
MARCO RUBIO
DONALD TRUMP
RICK SANTORUM
RICK PERRY
MIKE HUCKABEE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

15%
18%
14%
3%
4%
5%
9%
4%
5%
8%
11%
10%
15%
11%
8%
3%
0%
3%
0%
1%
1%
5%
4%
5%
46% 46% 46%
319
409
861

JEB BUSH
TED CRUZ
RAND PAUL
MARCO RUBIO
DONALD TRUMP
RICK SANTORUM
RICK PERRY
MIKE HUCKABEE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
19%
3%
7%
9%
12%
2%
1%
4%
43%
264

AB
21%
5%
6%
6%
11%
2%
1%
3%
45%
346

Prairies
21%
6%
6%
6%
10%
4%
1%
3%
43%
306

65+
23%
5%
7%
5%
9%
1%
1%
4%
45%
922
ON
18%
4%
5%
9%
11%
2%
0%
4%
47%
673

Male
18%
4%
8%
10%
11%
2%
1%
3%
43%
1165

Female
16%
5%
5%
7%
11%
1%
1%
5%
49%
1346

QC Atlantic
11%
18%
5%
3%
8%
5%
10%
9%
10%
12%
1%
2%
2%
1%
6%
5%
47%
47%
634
288

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump?

3%
18%

14%

65%
Favourable Unfavourable

BREAKDOWNS

Not Sure Not Familiar With

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH...
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

21%
17%
16%
68% 67% 63%
10%
14%
18%
1%
2%
2%
319
409
861

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH...
SAMPLE

BC
19%
66%
12%
3%
264

65+
20%
57%
16%
7%
922

Male
18%
66%
14%
2%
1165

Female
19%
63%
14%
4%
1346

AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
16%
18% 19%
19%
18%
59%
66% 65%
67%
59%
22%
12% 14%
12%
20%
3%
3% 2%
3%
3%
306
673 634
288
346

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Hillary Clinton?

12%

18%

70%

Favourable Unfavourable

BREAKDOWNS

Not Sure

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH...
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

77% 70% 63% 70%
10%
21%
21% 20%
12%
9%
15% 10%
0%
1%
1%
0%
319
409
861 922

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH...
SAMPLE

BC
71%
16%
12%
0%
264

AB
71%
14%
14%
0%
346

Prairies
67%
18%
14%
1%
306

ON
72%
16%
11%
0%
673

Male
68%
21%
11%
0%
1165

Female
73%
15%
12%
0%
1346

QC Atlantic
66%
69%
23%
18%
10%
12%
1%
1%
634
288

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jeb Bush?

5%
20%

28%

48%

Favourable Unfavourable

BREAKDOWNS

Not Sure Not Familiar With

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH...
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

21%
19%
17% 24%
54% 52% 47% 34%
20% 24%
31% 37%
5%
4%
5%
5%
319
409
861 922

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH...
SAMPLE

BC
24%
47%
24%
4%
264

AB
23%
47%
23%
8%
346

Prairies
22%
48%
22%
8%
306

ON
23%
40%
33%
4%
673

Male
20%
53%
23%
4%
1165

Female
20%
43%
32%
5%
1346

QC Atlantic
10%
22%
62%
43%
24%
31%
3%
4%
634
288

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Bernie Sanders

16%

20%

19%

46%

Favourable

BREAKDOWNS

Unfavourable

Not Sure

Not Familiar With

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH...
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

22% 20%
11%
9%
16%
21%
21% 16%
41%
41%
52% 49%
21%
18%
16% 26%
319
409
861 922

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH...
SAMPLE

BC
20%
18%
47%
15%
264

AB
22%
8%
38%
32%
346

Prairies
18%
9%
51%
21%
306

ON
10%
22%
48%
21%
673

Male
23%
22%
40%
16%
1165

Female
10%
16%
51%
23%
1346

QC Atlantic
23%
12%
21%
21%
41%
48%
14%
18%
634
288

And if you were eligible to vote in the presidential election and the candidates were Hilary
Clinton for the democrats and Jeb Bush for the republications, for whom would you vote?

11

16
72
Hilary Clinton

BREAKDOWNS

Jeb Bush Not Sure

HILARY CLINTON
JEB BUSH
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

81%
71%
67% 69%
11%
18%
18% 19%
7%
11%
14% 13%
319
409
861 922

HILARY CLINTON
JEB BUSH
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
75%
15%
9%
264

AB
77%
14%
9%
346

Prairies
75%
15%
10%
306

ON
71%
16%
12%
673

Male
72%
17%
11%
1165

Female
73%
16%
11%
1346

QC Atlantic
70%
74%
17%
17%
12%
10%
634
288

And whom would you vote for if the candidates were:

Bernie Sanders for the Democrats and Ted Cruz for the Republicans?

11
35

54
Bernie Sanders

BREAKDOWNS

Ted Cruz Not Sure

BERNIE SANDERS
TED CRUZ
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

42% 38% 34% 21%
7%
10%
14% 15%
51%
53% 52% 64%
319
409
861 922

HILARY CLINTON
JEB BUSH
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
42%
10%
49%
264

AB
42%
13%
45%
346

Prairies
37%
14%
48%
306

ON
29%
11%
60%
673

Male
39%
10%
51%
1165

Female
31%
12%
57%
1346

QC Atlantic
35%
33%
10%
9%
54%
58%
634
288

And whom would you vote for if the candidates were:

Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Ted Cruz for the Republicans?

12

19

69
Hilary Clinton

BREAKDOWNS

Ted Cruz Not Sure

BERNIE SANDERS
TED CRUZ
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

72% 66% 67%
7%
13%
15%
21%
20%
18%
319
409
861

HILARY CLINTON
JEB BUSH
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
71%
11%
18%
264

AB
71%
12%
17%
346

Prairies
69%
14%
16%
306

65+
70%
13%
17%
922
ON
67%
11%
22%
673

Male
70%
13%
17%
1165

Female
68%
11%
22%
1346

QC Atlantic
68%
69%
13%
11%
18%
20%
634
288

And whom would you vote for if the candidates were

Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans?

16

12

71
Hilary Clinton

BREAKDOWNS

Donald Trump

Not Sure

HILARY CLINTON
DONALD TRUMP
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

76% 72% 66%
14%
17%
18%
10%
11%
16%
319
409
861

HILARY CLINTON
DONALD TRUMP
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
74%
14%
12%
264

AB
75%
9%
16%
346

Prairies
74%
9%
17%
306

65+
70%
16%
13%
922
ON
70%
18%
11%
673

Male
71%
17%
12%
1165

Female
72%
15%
13%
1346

QC Atlantic
69%
71%
19%
19%
12%
10%
634
288

And whom would you vote for if the candidates were

Bernie Sanders for the Democrats and Jeb Bush for the Republicans?

23

38
Bernie Sanders

BREAKDOWNS

39

Jeb Bush Not Sure

HILARY CLINTON
DONALD TRUMP
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

47% 40% 35%
17%
22% 25%
37% 37% 40%
319
409
861

HILARY CLINTON
DONALD TRUMP
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
46%
21%
33%
264

65+
28%
29%
43%
922

Male
41%
22%
37%
1165

Female
36%
23%
41%
1346

AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
47%
32% 36%
37%
52%
22%
23% 25%
21%
20%
32%
44% 40%
42%
29%
306
673 634
288
346

What do you think is the most important issue currently facing America:
The Economy, Health Care, Foreign Threats, Racism, or Immigration?

ECONOMY 35%
HEALTH CARE 22%
FOREIGN THREATS 10%
RACISM 17%
IMMIGRATION 3%
NOT SURE 14%
0

BREAKDOWNS

10

15

20

25

ECONOMY
HEALTH CARE
FOREIGN THREATS
RACISM
IMMIGRATION
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

43% 35% 32%
17%
19%
26%
9%
10%
12%
15%
18%
17%
2%
3%
2%
13%
13%
11%
319
409
861

ECONOMY
HEALTH CARE
FOREIGN THREATS
RACISM
IMMIGRATION
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
41%
16%
9%
16%
3%
14%
264

AB
41%
14%
8%
13%
2%
21%
346

Prairies
34%
16%
10%
16%
4%
20%
306

30

35

65+
25%
28%
8%
16%
4%
18%
922

Male
39%
20%
11%
16%
3%
12%
1165

ON
30%
27%
10%
17%
3%
13%
673

Female
30%
25%
10%
18%
3%
16%
1346

QC Atlantic
36%
33%
22%
24%
11%
10%
17%
18%
3%
3%
10%
11%
634
288

What do you think is the most important issue currently facing Canada:
The Economy, Health Care, Foreign Threats, Racism, or Immigration?

ECONOMY 49%
HEALTH CARE 23%
FOREIGN THREATS 5%
RACISM 2%
IMMIGRATION 9%
NOT SURE 12%
0

BREAKDOWNS

10

15

20

25

30

35

ECONOMY
HEALTH CARE
FOREIGN THREATS
RACISM
IMMIGRATION
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

51%
49% 52%
20% 23% 24%
5%
4%
7%
2%
1%
2%
9%
10%
8%
13%
13%
7%
319
409
861

ECONOMY
HEALTH CARE
FOREIGN THREATS
RACISM
IMMIGRATION
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
50%
19%
6%
3%
8%
14%
264

AB
54%
16%
6%
2%
6%
16%
346

40

Prairies
49%
17%
5%
5%
8%
16%
306

45

65+
44%
25%
4%
4%
9%
14%
922
ON
48%
29%
3%
2%
5%
11%
673

Male
55%
19%
5%
2%
9%
10%
1165

Female
44%
26%
5%
3%
9%
13%
1346

QC Atlantic
46%
55%
18%
26%
8%
3%
1%
1%
18%
6%
8%
10%
634
288

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.