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by Eduardo Petazze
29/06/15
Greece has a real growth potential of 30%. A traditional adjustment program, it is pointless to support growth and to honor financial commitments.
The following table summarizes the financial situation of the Greek government, the gross value added generated by the economy and employment data in the last four years.
Million euro
2011
Total economy
Gross domestic product at market prices
Gross national income at market prices
Employed (000) persons
General government
Net lending (+) /net borrowing (-)
Interest, payable
Government consolidated gross debt
Government consolidated gross debt at face value
Currency and deposits
Debt securities
Loans
Trade credits and advances - liabilities
Central government
Net lending (+) /net borrowing (-)
Consolidated gross debt
Per employed persons (euro per person)
GDP
Government consolidated gross debt
Central government consolidated gross debt
2012
2013
2014
207,752
202,142
4,043.6
194,204
195,430
3,687.3
182,438
182,379
3,507.8
179,081
178,868
3,527.0
-21,221
15,067
355,977
-16,871
9,743
304,714
-22,498
7,276
319,178
-6,356
6,986
317,094
820
251,799
103,358
2,772
774
93,499
210,441
3,120
819
79,206
239,153
1,512
995
70,850
245,249
1,416
-19,273
378,648
-15,938
312,149
-26,624
326,912
-7,836
326,317
51,378
88,035
93,641
52,668
82,639
84,655
52,009
90,990
93,194
50,774
89,904
92,519
The level of activity and occupation of the Greeks has a real growth potential of around 30%, about 25 percentage points higher than the level of activity and occupation
achieved in 2008.
Population 15~74
years old
8,464.5
8,474.3
8,478.2
8,480.9
8,470.2
8,432.5
8,367.2
8,306.4
8,246.5
8,183.7
8,134.8
8,082.7
8,030.1
Latest data
Own estimate
Population 15~74
years old
8,158.6
8,155.1
8,150.4
8,145.8
8,141.3
8,136.9
8,132.5
8,128.1
8,123.8
8,119.4
8,115.1
8,110.7
8,106.0
8,102.4
8,098.8
8,094.4
8,089.8
8,085.4
8,080.4
8,075.8
8,071.6
8,067.3
8,062.8
8,058.2
Latest data
Own estimate
(000)
persons
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
(000)
persons
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Employed
4,381.8
4,435.7
4,518.5
4,554.5
4,599.4
4,545.2
4,378.5
4,043.6
3,687.3
3,507.8
3,527.0
3,552.4
3,576.0
Employed
3,488.8
3,442.9
3,495.6
3,478.9
3,519.7
3,562.5
3,628.5
3,546.3
3,582.7
3,597.7
3,497.1
3,483.5
3,550.5
3,516.7
3,438.1
3,518.3
3,534.7
3,569.3
3,636.0
3,580.0
3,602.2
3,626.3
3,533.8
3,523.4
Unadjusted estimates
Seasonally adjusted estimates
Unemployed Inactives Activity Unemployment Employed Unemployed Inactives
Activity
Unemployment
1,316.7
3,353.1 58.90%
27.40%
3,496.5
1,308.5
3,354.2
58.90%
27.23%
1,366.7
3,345.4 58.98%
28.42%
3,493.3
1,303.1
3,358.2
58.81%
27.17%
1,343.4
3,311.3 59.37%
27.76%
3,504.8
1,290.9
3,354.5
58.84%
26.92%
1,299.8
3,367.1 58.66%
27.20%
3,496.5
1,296.6
3,352.6
58.84%
27.05%
1,307.2
3,314.4 59.29%
27.08%
3,523.3
1,301.1
3,317.0
59.26%
26.97%
1,249.2
3,325.2 59.13%
25.96%
3,546.8
1,288.4
3,301.7
59.42%
26.65%
1,207.3
3,296.8 59.46%
24.97%
3,558.9
1,272.1
3,301.6
59.40%
26.33%
1,203.8
3,378.1 58.44%
25.34%
3,549.0
1,261.1
3,317.8
59.18%
26.22%
1,219.1
3,322.0 59.11%
25.39%
3,551.9
1,256.5
3,315.3
59.19%
26.13%
1,219.8
3,301.9 59.33%
25.32%
3,541.7
1,252.2
3,325.4
59.04%
26.12%
1,224.4
3,393.5 58.18%
25.93%
3,536.7
1,238.3
3,340.2
58.84%
25.93%
1,277.3
3,350.0 58.70%
26.83%
3,537.2
1,234.2
3,339.2
58.83%
25.87%
1,248.5
3,307.0 59.20%
26.01%
3,534.3
1,225.0
3,346.8
58.71%
25.74%
1,225.9
3,359.8 58.53%
25.85%
3,534.9
1,215.8
3,351.6
58.63%
25.59%
1,299.4
3,361.2 58.50%
27.43%
3,518.9
1,211.5
3,368.4
58.41%
25.61%
1,215.0
3,361.1 58.48%
25.67%
3,512.6
1,200.3
3,381.5
58.22%
25.47%
1,206.5
3,348.6 58.61%
25.45%
3,530.8
1,204.1
3,354.9
58.53%
25.43%
1,157.3
3,358.8 58.46%
24.48%
3,555.7
1,198.6
3,331.1
58.80%
25.21%
1,129.1
3,315.3 58.97%
23.70%
3,578.2
1,178.9
3,323.3
58.87%
24.78%
1,127.3
3,368.6 58.29%
23.95%
3,573.4
1,158.6
3,343.9
58.59%
24.48%
1,127.1
3,342.3 58.59%
23.83%
3,582.1
1,155.1
3,334.4
58.69%
24.38%
1,129.0
3,312.0 58.94%
23.74%
3,580.9
1,150.7
3,335.7
58.65%
24.32%
1,146.6
3,382.3 58.05%
24.50%
3,570.6
1,133.6
3,358.6
58.34%
24.10%
1,168.0
3,366.9 58.22%
24.90%
3,556.8
1,147.9
3,353.6
58.38%
24.40%
An unconventional agreement between the international financial community and the Greek government could facilitate a program primarily to achieve in the short term the
level of potential economic growth and, secondly, fill in the greatest extent possible orderly and genuine payment to creditors, based on the higher level of economic activity
flow is reached.
Due to the level of the Greek government debt and structural issues affecting the activity of Greece, a traditional adjustment program (as he has been in force), it is a waste of
time and necessarily leads to frustration for both parties and failure to sustainability over time.
2011
182,302.4
25,449.4
207,751.9
145,063.9
140,658.1
4,405.8
44,085.5
22,484.3
21,601.0
32,833.1
31,997.2
836.1
52,879.6
26,825.6
26,054.1
67,110.3
52,933.8
14,176.6
207,751.9
73,465.9
56,758.8
16,707.1
110,749.6
27,550.8
4,014.3
23,536.4
2012
171,215.6
22,988.1
194,203.7
134,702.0
130,196.6
4,505.6
41,089.0
19,910.1
21,179.0
27,120.2
22,743.5
4,376.5
54,838.5
29,896.6
24,941.9
63,546.0
51,021.1
12,525.1
194,203.7
66,370.9
50,282.0
16,088.8
106,204.9
25,043.7
3,415.8
21,627.9
2013
160,544.5
21,893.7
182,438.3
129,908.3
125,447.8
4,460.5
36,472.3
17,394.4
19,078.0
21,465.7
20,452.2
1,013.5
55,147.3
30,026.1
25,121.3
60,555.5
49,412.6
11,142.8
182,438.3
59,305.7
44,943.2
14,362.4
102,202.0
24,115.1
3,184.6
20,930.6
2014
157,212.5
21,868.1
179,080.6
128,882.5
124,456.9
4,425.4
35,510.4
15,999.7
19,510.7
18,937.9
20,721.5
-1,783.6
59,024.4
31,011.0
28,013.4
63,274.4
51,880.6
11,393.8
179,080.6
59,886.8
45,543.9
14,342.9
95,038.2
27,190.8
3,034.9
24,155.6
4,043.6
14,037
29.44%
53.31%
11.71%
2.20%
3,687.3
13,637
32.00%
54.69%
11.27%
2.00%
3,507.8
12,812
31.96%
56.02%
11.49%
1.98%
3,527.0
12,913
31.49%
53.07%
13.00%
1.93%
base case
Base / 2014
214,500.0
36.44%
28,600.0
30.78%
243,100.0
35.75%
166,800.0
29.42%
162,300.0
30.41%
4,500.0
1.69%
40,000.0
12.64%
19,100.0
19.38%
20,900.0
7.12%
62,400.0
229.50%
62,400.0
201.14%
0.0
-100.00%
61,700.0
4.53%
31,700.0
2.22%
30,000.0
7.09%
87,800.0
38.76%
73,000.0
40.71%
14,800.0
29.90%
243,100.0
35.75%
86,000.0
43.60%
67,300.0
47.77%
18,700.0
30.38%
131,300.0
38.15%
28,800.0
5.92%
3,000.0
-1.15%
25,800.0
6.81%
4,607.2
14,608
27.79%
54.01%
10.02%
1.40%
30.62%
13.13%