The classical approach to probability

The classical approach to probability is to count the number of favorable outcomes, the number
of total outcomes, and express the probability as a ratio of these two numbers. Here, "favorable"
refers not to any subjective value given to the outcomes, but is rather the classical terminology used
to indicate that an outcome belongs to a given event of interest. What is meant by this will be made
clear by an example, and formalized with the introduction of axiomatic probability theory.
If the number of outcomes belonging to an event
, then the probability of event

is

, and the total number of outcomes is

is defined as

If an experiment has n simple outcomes, this method would assign a probability of 1/n to each
outcome. In other words, each outcome is assumed to have an equal probability of occurrence. This
method is also called the axiomatic approach.
Example 1: Roll of a Die S = {1, 2, , 6} Probabilities: Each simple event has a 1/6 chance of
occurring.
Example 2: Two Rolls of a Die S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), , (6, 6)}
Assumption: The two rolls are independent. Probabilities: Each simple event has a (1/6) (1/6) =
1/36 chance of occurring.
The classical definition of probability assigns equal probabilities to events based on physical
symmetry which is natural for coins, cards and dice.

The definition is very limited. It says nothing about cases where no physical symmetry exists.
Insurance premiums, for example, can only be rationally priced by measured rates of loss.

It is not trivial to justify the principle of indifference except in the simplest and most idealized
of cases (an extension of the problem limited definition). Coins are not truly symmetric. Can we
assign equal probabilities to each side? Can we assign equal probabilities to any real world
experience?

However limiting, the definition is accompanied with substantial confidence. A casino which observes
a marked departure from classical probability is confident that its assumptions have been violated
(somebody is cheating). Even critics are remarkably willing to flip a coin to settle a dispute. Much of

the mathematics of probability was developed on the basis of this simplistic definition.
Alternative interpretations of probability (for example frequentist and subjective) also have problems.

The Classical definition of probability limited its application only to situations where there are
a finite number of possible outcomes. It mainly considered discrete events and its methods
were mainly combinatorial.

The classical theory assumes finite outcomes in the experiment. This renders it inapplicable
to some important random experiments, such as "tossing a coin until a head appears" which
give rise to the possibility infinite set of outcomes.

Classical definition dealt with discrete variables. Analytical considerations compelled the
incorporation of continuous variables into the theory wherein the classical definition was
found lacking.

Another limitation of the classical definition was the condition that each possible outcome is
'equally likely". This rendered the definition circular - since probability is used to define the
idea of probability.