SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

CHAPTER 6
PROBABILITY
________________________________________________________________________
At the end of chapter, the students are able to
compute the probability for an event (C1)
sketch the tree diagrams (C3)
use the Combinations and Permutations Rule to find total number of outcomes (C3)
trace and use the properties of probability to solve probability problem (P3, C3)
________________________________________________________________________

6.1

Introduction

Probability and statistic are related in an important way. Probability is used as a tool; it allow
you to evaluate the reliability of your conclusions about the population when you have only
sample information.
Definition 6.1: Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event A occurring in one
experiment or trial and is denoted by P( A) .
number of ways that the event A can occur n( A)
P( A) =
=
n( S )
total number of outcomes
Example 6.1(a): When you toss a single coin, you will see either a head (H) or a tail (T). What
1
is the probability getting a head (H)? The answer is .
2
Example 6.1(b): In an objective question, there have 4 answers to choose. What is the
probability getting the right answer?
Example 6.1(c): Two fair dice are thrown. Determine
i.
the sample space of the experiment
ii. the element of event A which the outcomes of both dice thrown are showing the same
digit.
iii. the element of event B which the first thrown giving a greater digit than the second
thrown.
iv.
probability of event A and event B

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SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

6.2

Sample Space and Algebra of Sets

Definition 6.2: A set is a collection of elements or components.

Definition 6.3: A sample space consists of points that correspond to all possible outcomes.
Definition 6.4: An event is a set of outcomes of an experiment and a subset of the sample space.
Example 6.2: Let S be a sample space, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} . If A denoted the events of obtaining a
number which could divide by 3 between 1 and 6, then the set A = {3,6} . If B denoted the
events of obtaining a even number between 1 and 6, then the set B = {2,4,6} .

Definition 6.5: The union of event A and B which is denoted as A B , is the set of all elements
that belong to A or B or both.
Definition 6.6: The intersection of event A and B which is denoted as A B , is the set of all
elements that belong to both A and B.
Definition 6.7: The event that contains all of the elements that do not belong to event A is called
the complement of A and is denoted by A'.
Example 6.3(a): Let us use the sample in Example 6.2. A B = {2,3,4,6} , A B = {6} and
A' = {1,2,4,5} .
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SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

Example 6.3(b): Let sample space consists real positive numbers between 1 and 50, event A is
an event to obtain an odd number between 1and 50, and event B is an event to obtain a number
which can divide by 5 between 1 and 50. Find A, B, A B , A B , and ( A B)' .
Solution:
A = {1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15,17,19,21,23,25,27,29,31,33,35,37,39,41,43,45,47,49}
B = {5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45,50}
A B = {1,3,5,7,9,10,11,13,15,17,19,20,21,23,25,27,29,30,31,33,35,37,39,40,41,43,45,
47,49,50}
A B = {5,15,25,35,45}
( A B )' = {2,4,6,8,12,14,16,18,22,24,26,28,32,34,36,38,42,44,46,48}
6.3

Tree Diagrams and Counting Technique

When a trial or an experiment of interest consist of a sequence of several stages, it is convenient

to represent these with tree diagram.
Example 6.4: In a carom game, there are 3 white seeds and 2 black seeds. Three seeds have
been successfully converted in the game. Assuming that convert is being done one after another
and the rules of carom game disobeyed. Let W be an event of the white seed had been converted
and B be an event of the black seed had been converted. Sketch the tree diagrams and find the
probability for the player gets 2 white seeds and 1 black seed.
Solution:
Third
convert

Second
convert

First
convert

1
3
2
4

3
5
2
5

W1

B1

W2

W3

W1W2W3

B3

W1W2B3

W3

W1B2W3

1
3 2
3

B3

W1B2B3

W3

B1W2W3

1
3

B3

B1W2B3

W3

B1B2W3

B3

B1B2B3

2
2 3

2
4

B2

3
4

W2

1
4

B2

Result

3
3
0
3

Probability
3 2 1 6
=
5 4 3 60
3 2 2 12
=
5 4 3 60
3 2 2 12
=
5 4 3 60
3 2 1 6
=
5 4 3 60
2 3 2 12
=
5 4 3 60
2 3 1 6
=
5 4 3 60
2 1 3 6
=
5 4 3 60
2 1 0 0
=
5 4 3 60

P (2W 1B ) = P (W1 W2 B3 ) + P (W1 B2 W3 ) + P ( B1 W2 W3 )

12 12 12 36 3
=
+
+
=
=
60 60 60 60 5

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SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

Example 6.4: There are 3 red balls and 2 green balls in a box. A ball will be taken out and
return into the box. This action will be repeated 3 times. Let R be an event of the red ball had
been taken out and B be an event of the blue ball had been taken out. Sketch the tree diagrams
and find the probability
a) 1 red ball and 2 blue balls will be taken out
b) at least 2 red balls will be taken out
c) at least 1 blue ball will be taken out
Solution:

3
5

3
5
2
5

Third
times

Second
times

First
times

R1

B1

2
5

3
5
2
5

R2

3
5

R3

R1R2R3

2
5

B3

R1R2B3

R3

R1B2R3

B3

R1B2B3

R3

B1R2R3

B3

B1R2B3

R3

B1B2R3

B3

B1B2B3

3
5

B2
3
5

R2

B2

Result

2
5

2
5

3
5

2
5

Probability
3 3 3 27
=
5 5 5 125
3 3 2 18
=
5 5 5 125
3 2 3 18
=
5 5 5 125
3 2 2 12
=
5 5 5 125
2 3 3 18
=
5 5 5 125
2 3 2 12
=
5 5 5 125
2 2 3 12
=
5 5 5 125
2 2 2
8
=
5 5 5 125

a) P (1R 2 B ) = P ( R1 B2 B3 ) + P ( B1 R2 B3 ) + P( B1 B2 R3 )
12 12 12
36
=
+
+
=
125 125 125 125
b) P (2 R ) = P ( R1 R2 ) + P ( R1 B2 R3 ) + P( B1 R2 R3 )
3 3 18 18
81
= +
+
=
5 5 125 125 125
c) P (1B ) = P ( B1 ) + P ( R1 B2 R3 ) + P( B1 R2 R3 )
2 18 18
86
= +
+
=
5 125 125 125
Proposition 6.1 (Combinations Rule): The counting rule allows one to count the number of
outcomes when the experiment involves selecting r objects from a set of n objects, where the
n
n!
order of selection is no important. Total outcomes is nCr = =
.
r r !(n r )!
Example 6.5: Suppose that in the taste test, the referee is asked to select three best products
from the total eight products, but not in any particular order. Find the number of possible
answer.
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SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

Solution: The number of possible answer is 8C3 =

8!
8 7 6 5 !
=
= 56 .
3 ! 5 ! (3 2 1) 5 !

Example 6.6: Sports Toto has a game which is selected 6 numbers from 1 until 52. Find the
number of possible cases.
52 !
Solution: The number of possible cases is 52C6 =
= 20358520 .
6 ! 46 !
Proposition 6.2 (Permutations Rule): The counting rule allows one to count the number of
outcomes when the r objects are to be selected from a set of n objects where the order of
n!
selection is important. Total outcomes is n Pr =
.
(n r )!
Example 6.7: 3 lottery tickets are drawn from a total of 50. If the tickets will be distributed to
each of the three employees in the order in which they are drawn, the order will be important.
How many simple events are associated with the experiment?
50 !
Solution: The total number of simple events is 50 P3 =
= 50 49 48 = 117600 .
47 !

6.4

Properties of Probability

A B'

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

A B

A' B

0 P ( A) 1
P( A) + P( A' ) = 1
P ( A B' ) = P( A) P( A B)
P ( A' B) = P( B) P( A B)
P ( A' B' ) = 1 P( A B) = P(( A B)')
P( A' B' ) = 1 P( A B) = P(( A B )' )
P ( A B ) = P ( A) + P ( B) P( A B)

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SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

Example 6.8(a): Consider randomly selecting a Master degree international student. Let A
denote the event that the selected individual has a Visa Card and B has a Master Card. Suppose
that P ( A) = 0.5 , P( B) = 0.4 and P ( A B ) = 0.25 .
i.
Compute the probability that the selected individual has at least one of the two types of
cards?
ii.
What is the probability that the selected individual has neither type of card?
Solution:
i.
P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( A B )
= 0.5 + 0.4 0.25 = 0.65
ii.
P ( A B )' = 1 P ( A B ) = 1 0.65 = 0.35
Example 6.8(b): In an assessment for student who took Mathematics II course, it is known that
the percentage of students who passed in their monthly test is 80% while 85% passed their quiz
and 75% passed in both monthly test and quiz. Calculate
i.
passed the monthly test or quiz.
ii.
passed the monthly test but failed quiz.
iii. failed both monthly test and quiz.
Solution:
Let A denotes the event that the student passed the monthly test and B denotes the event that the
student pass the quiz.
i.
P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( A B)
= 0.80 + 0.85 0.75 = 0.90
ii.
P ( A B ' ) = P ( A) P( A B)
= 0.80 0.75 = 0.05
iii.
P ( A' B' ) = 1 P( A B)
= 1 0.90 = 0.10
Example 6.8(c): In a certain residential area, 60% of all households subscribe to Berita Harian
newspaper, 80% subscribe to The Star newspaper and 50% of all households subscribe to both
papers. If a household is selected at random, what is probability that it subscribes
i. at least one of the two paper
ii.
exactly one of the two paper

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SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

6.5

Conditional Probability

Definition 6.8: For any two events A and B with P( B) > 0 , the conditional probability of A
given that B has occurred is defined by
P( A B)
P( A | B) =
P( B)
Example 6.9(a): A study of 100 students who get A in Mathematics in SPM examination was
done by UPMKB first year students. The results are given in the table:
Area \ Gender
Male
Female
Total
Urban
35
10
45
Rural
25
30
55
Total
60
40
100
If a student is selected at random and has been told that the individual is a male student, what is
the probability of he is from urban area?
Solution:
Let A denote the event that the student is Male and B denote the event that the student is from
urban.
35
60
From the table, P ( A B ) =
= 0.35 and P( A) =
= 0.60 . Thus, the probability of the
100
100
male student is from urban area,
P ( A B ) 0.35
P ( B | A) =
=
= 0.583
P ( A)
0.60
Example 6.9(b): In 2006, Edaran Automobil Negara (EON) will produce a multipurpose
national car (MPV) equipped with either manual or automatics transmission and the car is
available in one of four metallic colours. Relevant probabilities for various combinations of
transmission type and colour are given in the accompanying table:
Transmission \ Colour Grey
Blue
Black
Red
Total
Automatic
0.15
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.45
Manual
0.15
0.05
0.15
0.20
0.55
Total
0.30
0.15
0.25
0.30
1.00
If a car is seleted randomly and it is automatic transmission car, what is the probability of the car
is blue colour?

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SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

Definition 6.9: Two events and are said to be independent if and only if
(|) = (), or
(|) = ()
Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent
Proposition 6.3 (Multiplicative Rule of Probability): The probability that two events and ,
occur is
P( A B) = P( A) P( B | A)
= P( B) P( A | B)
If and are independent,
P ( A B ) = P ( A) P ( B )
Example 6.10: Suppose that P ( A) =

3
1
and P( B) = . Are events and independent? if
5
3

1
5
14
ii.
P( A B) =
15
Solution:
3 1 1
i.
P ( A) P( B) = = = P( A B)
5 3 5
Thus, and are independent.
ii.
P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( A B)
14 3 1
= + P( A B)
15 5 3
3 1 14
P( A B) = +
= 0 P( A) P( B)
5 3 15
Thus, and are dependent.

i.

P( A B) =

Exercise 6:
1. A ball is drawn at random from a box containing 6 red balls, 4 white balls and 5 blue balls.
Determine the probability that the ball drawn is
(a) red,
(b) white
(c) blue
(d) not red
(e) red or white
2. A fair dice is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a 4, 5, or 6 on the first toss and a 1,
2, 3, or 4 on the second toss.

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SFM 1002 Mathematics II

Chapter 6 Probability

3. Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that
they are both aces if the first card is
(a) replaced
(b) not replaced
4. In a family has 3 children, assuming equal probability for boys and girls. Sketch the Tree
Diagram and find the probability of
(a) three boys
(b) three girls
(c) two boys and one girl
(d) one boy and two girls
5. In how many ways can a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9 people?
6. In how many ways can 6 objects be selected out of 10 objects?
7. How many four digit can be formed with 10 digits 0, 1, 2, ..., 9 if
(a) repetitions are allowed
(b) repetitions are not allowed
8. In UPMKB, 70% of all staffs have car, 35% of all staffs have motorcycles, and 10% of all
staffs have both vehicles. Find the probability
(a) a staff has a vehicle either car or motorcycle.
(b) a staff does not has any vehicles.
9. A survey of 500 students taking courses in Algebra or Physics during first semester.
Course \ Gender
Male
Female
Total
Algebra
125
160
285
Physics
155
60
215
Total
280
220
500
If a female student randomly selected, what is the probability she is taking Physics?

10. Suppose that P( A) =

i.
ii.

1
9
19
P( A B) =
30
P( A B) =

3
5
and P( B) = . Are events and independent? if
10
9

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