HABIT-CHANGE

HABIT-CHANGE
Sensitivity and Potential Impact Maps

Combined Report on 4.3.5, 4.6.1 and 4.6.2
10/2012
This project is implemented through

the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme
co-financed by the ERDF
Output Number:
4.3.5, 4.6.1 and 4.6.2
Title:
Potential Impact Maps
Author:
UniV, TUB
Project:
HABIT-CHANGE Adaptive management of climate-induced changes of habitat diversity

in protected areas
CENTRAL EUROPE
2CE168P3
Project
Programme:
Date:
04.07.2012
Number:
3/2010
Lead Partner:
Leibniz Institute of Ecological and Regional Development (IOER), Germany
Project Partner:
University of Vienna, Austria

National Academy of Sciences, Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth,
Ukraine
Thuringian State Institute for Forestry, Game and Fishery, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
Technische Universitt Berlin, Germany
Balaton Uplands National Park Directorate, Hungary
Szent Istvan University, Hungary
Biebrza National Park, Poland
Environmental Protection Institute, Poland
Triglav National Park, Slovenia
University of Bucharest, Romania
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
Danube Delta National Institute for Research and Development, Romania
SOLINE Pridelava soli d.o.o., Slovenia
University of Maribor, Slovenia
European Academy Bolzano, Italy
Marco Neubert, m.neubert@ioer.de, +49 351 4679-274
Sven Rannow, s.rannow@ioer.de, +49 351 463-42359
www.habit-change.eu
Contact:
Further
information
[2]
2/2013
Start date:
End date:
Contents
1.
Introduction
2.
Methods
2.1.
3.
Sensitivity
2.1.1. Regional expert knowledge
2.1.2. Indicator values
2.2.
Exposure
2.3.
Potential Impacts
Results
3.1.
11
13
14
3.1.1. Sensitivity
15
3.1.2. Exposure
18
3.1.3. Potential Impacts
19
3.2.
24
Flusslandschaft Elbe - Brandenburg Biosphere Reserve, Germany
3.2.1. Sensitivity
24
3.2.2. Exposure
27
28
3.3.
30
Vessertal - Thuringian Forest Biosphere Reserve, Germany
3.3.1. Sensitivity
31
3.3.2. Exposure
36
37
3.4.
43
Natural Park Bucegi, Romania
3.4.1. Sensitivity
44
3.4.2. Exposure
47
48
3.5.
53
Balaton Uplands National Park, Hungary
3.5.1. Sensitivity
54
3.5.2. Exposure
57
58
3.6.
63
Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania
3.6.1. Sensitivity
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL

EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF
64
[3]
3.6.2. Exposure
69
71
3.7.
77
Koros-Maros National Park, Hungary
3.7.1. Sensitivity
78
3.7.2. Exposure
81
82
3.8.
86
Lake Neusiedl / Fert - Hansag National Park, Austria / Hungary
3.8.1. Sensitivity
87
3.8.2. Exposure
93
94
3.9.
Seovlje Salina Nature Park ,Slovenia
100
3.9.1. Sensitivity
100
3.9.2. Exposure
101
102
3.10. Rieserferner - Ahrn Nature Park, Italia
103
3.10.1. Sensitivity
104
3.10.2. Exposure
108
109
3.11. Triglav National Park, Slovenia
114
3.11.1. Sensitivity
115
3.11.2. Exposure
119
120
4.
Conclusion
124
5.
References
125
[4]
1. Introduction
Climate change impacts biota from an individual, population, species and community level to whole
ecosystems or biogeographic regions. Their current distribution is a result of abiotic factors like
climate conditions, topography, soil types or disturbance regimes and biotic factors like competition.
This also means, that the current plant community composition of a habitat reflects the ecological
envelope of the habitat. Plant species or populations only can persist within their climatic envelope
for which they are evolutionary and physiologically adapted. If abiotic factors like regional climate
conditions are changing, the individuals can be more prone to catastrophic disturbances like disease,
insects or fires (Bergengren et al. 2011). In parts of the world, including Europe, the species
distribution is already influenced by climate change (Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Rising temperatures
led to an increase in thermophilic plant species (Bakkenes et al. 2006). Especially in alpine areas, the
more warm-adapted species became more frequent and the more cold-adapted plants were
declining (Gottfried et al. 2012). This also shows that the impact of climate change on plant species
communities varies between biogeographical regions (Figure 1) as stated by the EEA for the key past
and projected impacts of climate change and effects (2010): Alpine areas suffer from high
temperature increase, whereas the lowlands of Central and Eastern Europe (incorporating the
Continental, Pannonian and Steppic Regions) have to face more temperature extremes and less
summer precipitation.
Figure 1: The biogeographical regions Europe

(after EEA 2009)

[5]
In HABIT-CHANGE the assessment of climate-induced impacts on habitats makes use of existing

frameworks (e.g. Rannow et al. 2010; Renetzeder et al. 2010) to provide information about priorities
for the climate change adapted management process in the protected areas. The framework consists
of sensitivity and exposure, which are both leading to climate-induced impacts on habitats. Existing
literature about projected species compositions (e.g. Normand et al. 2007; Bakkenes et al. 2006;
Milad et al. 2011), ecological envelope (Ellenberg 1992; Landolt and Bumler 2010; Borhidi 1995) and
expert knowledge systems (Petermann et al. 2007) are used to assess the sensitivity of habitat types
(also see Output 4.2.1), whereas results from climate scenarios are used to describe the magnitude
of the expected exposure to climate change.
Figure 2: Framework for the assessment

(Source: own preparation, 2012)
The framework for the assessment (Figure 2) follows the concept defined by the IPCC (2001):
Sensitivity is defined as the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by
climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g. change in crop yield in response to a
change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g. damages caused by an
increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). The term exposure specifies the
nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations. Potential impacts
describe the consequences of climate change on natural and human systems [] that may occur
given a projected change in climate, without considering adaption.
Furthermore, in the application of the assessment framework, the focus particularly was set on
I.
II.
III.
The assessment: simple approach which is locally valid and can be transferred to other
biogeographical regions;
The traceability: transfer expert-knowledge into values based on defined criteria;
The scale: localized analysis for habitats within an investigation area and regionalized
statement for a biogeographical region.
This report combines the Output for the Sensitivity maps (4.3.5, for that see Chapter Methods and
Results entitled Sensitivity) and the outputs related to Potential Impact maps (4.6.1 and 4.6.2, for
those see Chapters entitled Exposure and Potential Impacts).
[6]
2. Methods
2.1. Sensitivity
In HABIT-CHANGE the sensitivity of a habitat is considered a result of its characteristics and existing
or future pressures. The characteristics of habitats are the results of the effective abiotic factors like
climate conditions, topography, soil type or disturbance regimes and biotic factors like species
distributions, competition or regeneration rates. These characteristics describe the ecological
envelope of the habitats. However, existing non-climatic pressures like land use changes modify the
resilience of habitats to climate change on the local level.
The sensitivity of habitats was assessed by two approaches (Figure 3). One is focusing on regional
expert knowledge and the other incorporates the ecological envelope of the habitat by assessing the
current plant community composition.
Figure 3:
Framework for the Sensitivity assessment

2.1.1. Regional expert knowledge

The framework for the regional expert knowledge was based on the approach developed during the
sensitivity assessment of Natura 2000 habitats in Germany by Petermann et al. (2007). The
assessment was structured into seven sensitivity criteria (Table 1):
1. Average or reduced conservation status: habitats which are already marked as endangered
are more sensitive;
2. Ability to regenerate: how long habitats need to recover after disturbance;
3. Horizontal distribution (range): species migrations due to climate change (e.g. from
Northwest to East)
4. Altitudinal distribution (range): species are forced to migrate upwards (e.g. summit areas)
5. Decrease of territorial coverage: remnants of habitats which are already endangered
6. Influence of neophytes: potential danger of neophytes due to new invasive species or
changing territorial coverage;
7. Dependency on groundwater and surface water in water balance: sensitivity of habitats
which depend on water to changing temperature and precipitation patterns

[7]
Table 1:
Sensitivity criteria for the regional expert knowledge assessment

(Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)
Values
low
CONS
3
REGE
marginal
HORI
ALTI
COVER
NEOP
WATER
no limits,
planar
no change
no invasives
no
closed range
collin
med
2
difficult
no limit but
montane
medium
one invasive
only for
fragmented
decrease
species
some forms
high
1
none,
limits or
subalpine
strong
more than
for most
barely
disjoint
and alpine
decrease
one invasive
forms
habitats
species
Abbreviations: CONS: Average or reduced conservation status; REGE: Ability to regenerate; HORI: Horizontal distribution;
ALTI: Altitudinal distribution; COVER: Decrease of territorial coverage; NEOP: Influence of neophytes; WATER: Dependency
on ground- and surface water in water balance;
For each habitat type each criteria was evaluated from the experts between the values low (1),
medium (2), and high (3) sensitive. Afterwards, these values are summed and categorised to
describe the overall sensitivity of a habitat type. Thereby, the categories were named similar to the
evaluation values (Table 2). This evaluation was done from regional experts for the Alpine,
Continental and Pannonian biogeographical region.
Table 2:
Sensitivity categories
Sum
> 14
14-16
< 16
Value
3
2
1
Category
high
medium
low
2.1.2. Indicator values

The variability of the ecological envelope of habitats was assessed by indicator values which were
derived from the characteristic species composition in the habitats. As above, the biogeographical
regions define the type of plant indicator scheme used for the assessment (Table 3). This
differentiation was made because indicator schemes are based on the plant species response to
climatic (e.g. temperature) and edaphic (e.g. moisture) habitat parameters, which are varying
between the biogeographical regions (Englisch and Karrer 2001). Following Ellenberg (1992),
different authors adapted the ecological preference of plants for their region. Each scheme
categorizes this ecological preference into ordinal scaled systems.
Table 3:
Indicator schemes per biogeographical region

Region
Alpine
Continental
Pannonian
[8]
Indicator scheme
Landolt et al. (2010)
Ellenberg (1992)
Borhidi (1995)
Ordinal scale
1 5 (Temp., Moist.)
1 9 (Temp.); 1 12 (Moist.)
1 9 (Temp.); 1 12 (Moist.)
New Scale
1-3
1-3
1-3
Temperature values as climatic parameter and moisture values as edaphic parameter were selected
in the framework. The temperature describes the plants response to air temperature gradients
during the vegetation period. Moisture values indicate the degree of soil moisture needed by the
plant during the vegetation period. Since the approach should be locally valid and transferrable to
other biogeographical regions, the indicator schemes were re-categorized into three values each
(Table 4, Table 5). Thereafter, the categorized indicator values were used to calculate an overall
indicator value based on the statistical median for each habitat type listed by the investigation area.
Table 4:
Categories for the indicator temperature

Scale
1
Category
low
2
3
medium
high
Table 5:
Description
Species from high elevations, sustainable of low air temperature during the growth
period
Species from the midlands, need average air temperature during the growth period
Species from low elevations, need higher air temperature during the growth period
Categories for the indicator moisture

Scale
1
2
3
Category
dry
moist
wet
Description
Species sustain low soil moisture during growth period
Species need average soil moisture during growth period
Species need high soil moisture during growth period
The frequency of the categorised indicator values per habitat, investigation area and biogeographical
region was used in the sensitivity assessment. The proportion of the categories defined the main
direction, therefore also the sensitivity of the habitat against changes in direction of the other
category (Table 6). For instance, freshwater habitats are characterised in their moisture by moist to
wet category and therefore are sensitive to drought periods.
Table 6:
Example sensitivity assessment of the indicator values for three habitat types
Habitat
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
Freshwater habitats
15
58
Moist/Wet
> Dry
Grassland formations
72
196
24
Dry/Moist
> Wet
Forests
14
174
43
Moist
indifferent
2.2. Exposure
In HABIT-CHANGE exposure of a habitat is equivalent to the pressure "climate change". The changes
can be represented as long-term changes in climate conditions, changes in the climate variability or
changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events.

[9]
Figure 4: Framework for the Exposure assessment

The exposure was assessed (Figure 4) by comparing climatic conditions of today with information
from meteorological observations from the past (period between the years 1971-2000) and climate
change projections for the future (period between the years 2036-2065). Various exposure
parameters are available when comparing climatic conditions from the past to the future. This
framework selected the two exposure parameter corresponding most with the two plant indicators
which describe the ecological envelope of a habitat. The mean temperature (C) indicates the
changes in air temperature for each period and therefore can describe the indicator temperature.
The climatic water balance (mm) combines precipitation and evapotranspiration and for that reason
is one of the best parameter to explain the distribution of vegetation (Stephenson 1990). The climatic
water balance indicates the changes in the water storage in the soil and therefore can be used to be
compared with the indicator moisture.
Figure 5: Exposure Plots based on yearly ensemble data. Difference between periods (left), scaled
Values (centre) and final exposure plot showing magnitude categories (right)
The exposure values were calculated as annual ensembles. These values represented the climatic
conditions during the course of the year for the past and projected future date periods from above.
Instead of the usage of the length of the vegetation period, the productive time was divided into
[10]
three time segments, which are further referred to as 1/3, 2/3 and 3/3 of the vegetation period. The
non-productive time segment is referred as dormant period. The exposure values therefore were
calculated separately for each period during the course of the year. First, the difference in the
exposure values between the past and future date period was obtained to get the amount of change
from the past to the future. This led to difference values ranging around zero (e.g. see Figure 5, left
with temperature range between 6 and -6 C). In a second step, the values were scaled by dividing
them by the root mean square. Now, the values of the different exposure parameters (e.g. C or mm)
showed the same range around zero, which means that all values at least range between 1 and -1
(Figure 5, centre). Finally, the scaled values were categorised into three magnitudes of exposure
classes by making use of this fact. The statistical median was calculated for each period per
parameter. Negative values were transformed into positive and afterwards assigned to one of the
three magnitude classes (Table 7, Figure 5, right).
Table 7:
Magnitude of Exposure categories

Scaled Value
> 0.90
0.90 0.30
< 0.30
Category
3
2
1
Magnitude
High
Med
Low
2.3. Potential Impacts

In HABIT-CHANGE the term impact is considered as a change in the state of a system caused by
pressures like climate change or land use. The focus is set on environmental impacts esp. on habitats.
Climate impacts may be positive or negative. They can be the result of extreme events or more
gradual changes in climate variables showing either direct or indirect effect. Examples for direct
impacts are changed abiotic conditions (e.g., soil moisture) for protected habitats. Examples of
indirect impacts are changes of agricultural practices due to increasing drought stress.
Figure 6:
Framework for the Impact assessment


[11]
The framework for the assessment (Fig. 8.5) of climate-induced impacts on habitats results into
overall impact magnitude values partitioned into the four time segment during the course of the
year. The starting points in the impact assessment were the exposure values and the sensitivity
derived from the indicator values. The parameter temperature (tas) and climatic water balance (cwb)
were checked against the sensitivity of the indicators temperature and moisture. Subsequently, this
resulted into the first impact values following the rules defined in Table 8for Temperature and Table
9 for Moisture.
Table 8:
Transformation rules of the Temperature using the temperature Sensitivity

Sensitivity
> high
> low
~
Table 9:
Rule
If habitat is sensitive against raising temperatures, then leave all positive exposure values.
If habitat used to high temperatures and therefore sensitive against lower temperatures, then leave all
negative exposure values.
If habitat is indifferent because the frequency does not show any clear preference in one direction (ether
high or low), then remove all low values (1, -1).
Transformation rules of the Climatic Water Balance using the moisture Sensitivity
Sensitivity
> wet
> dry
~
Rule
If habitat is sensitive against soil wetness, than remove all high positive values (3).
Extreme increase in the Climatic Water Balance;
If habitat is sensitive against droughts, then leave all negative values.
Climatic Water Balance is decreasing, which can cause water shortage;
If habitat is indifferent because the frequency does not show any clear preference in one direction (ether
dry or wet), then remove all low values (1, -1).
In the example shown in Table 10 and Table 11, for the Temperature, the Indicator rules stated that
all negative values should be ignored from further analysis. The Moisture was indifferent and
therefore all low exposure values were removed. The sensitivity values from the regional expert
knowledge assessment were used to weight the first impact values. This was done by summarising
the values from temperature, moisture and regional sensitivity for each of the four time segments
(see Table 11for an example assessment). The sums were again categorised into three classes (Table
12) which resulted into the final impact magnitudes.
Table 10: Example of exposure values and their respective sensitivity derived from the indicator
values of alpine grassland formations
VEG1
VEG2
VEG3
DORM
Temperature
-2
> High
Moisture
-3
Indifferent
[12]
Indicator
Table 11: Example of an impact assessment for alpine grassland formations

VEG1
Temperature
VEG2
VEG3
DORM
Moisture
Regional sensitivity
SUM
Impact category
Table 12: Magnitude of Impact categories

SUM
Values
<4
Impact
Magnitude
Low
4-6
Med
>6
High
3. Results
The following chapter shows the results produced for the outputs 4.3.5, 4.6.1 and 4.6.2 structured
into the main investigation areas. The final sensitivity and potential impact maps are also in a higher
resolution in the appendix of this report.
Table 13: Main Investigation areas assessed in this combined report

Biogeo.
region
Continental
Main Investigation Area
Indicator
Scheme
Polish Ellenberg
Tables
Maps
Appendix
Continental
yes
yes
A-3.1
Ellenberg
yes
no
No
Ellenberg
yes
yes
A-3.3
Alpine
Flusslandschaft Elbe - Brandenburg Biosphere

Reserve, Germany
Vessertal - Thuringian Forest Biosphere Reserve,
Germany
Natural Park Bucegi, Romania
Landolt
yes
yes
A-3.4
Pannonian
Balaton Uplands National Park, Hungary
Borhidi
yes
yes
A-3.5
Mixed
Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania
Ellenberg
yes
yes
A-3.6
Pannonian
Koros-Maros National Park, Hungary
Borhidi
yes
yes
A-3.7
Pannonian
Borhidi
yes
yes
A-3.8
Mixed
Lake Neusiedl / Fert - Hansag National Park,

Austria / Hungary
Seovlje Salina Nature Park ,Slovenia
Ellenberg
yes
no
No
Alpine
Rieserferner - Ahrn Nature Park, Italia
Landolt
yes
yes
A-3.10
Alpine
Triglav National Park, Slovenia
Landolt
yes
yes
A-3.11
Continental

[13]
3.1. Biebrza National Park, Poland
Table 14: Habitat types (Code) assessed in the Investigation Area

Code
Description
2330
Inland dunes with open Corynephorus and Agrostis grasslands
3270
Rivers with muddy banks with Chenopodion rubri p.p. and Bidention p.p. vegetation
6410
Molinia meadows on calcareous, peaty or clayey-silt-laden soils (Molinion caeruleae)
6510
Lowland hay meadows (Alopecurus pratensis, Sanguisorba officinalis)
7110
* Active raised bogs
7140
Transition mires and quaking bogs
7230
Alkaline fens
9160
Sub-Atlantic and medio-European oak or oak-hornbeam forests of the Carpinion betuli
91D0
* Bog woodland
91E0
* Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (Alno-Padion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae)
9170
Galio-Carpinetum oak-hornbeam forests
Figure 7: Map of the habitat types

[14]
3.1.1. Sensitivity
Table 15: Regional expert knowledge assessment (continental region)

Code CONS REGE HORI ALTI WATER COVER NEOP SUM Sensitivity
2330 3
2
2
1
1
3
2
14
2
3270 2
2
2
2
3
2
3
16
2
6410 3
2
1
2
3
3
1
15
2
6510 3
2
1
2
2
3
3
16
2
7110 3
3
2
3
3
3
1
18
3
7140 3
3
1
3
3
3
2
18
3
7230 3
3
1
3
3
3
1
17
3
9160 2
3
1
2
3
2
3
16
2
91D0 3
3
2
3
3
3
1
18
3
91E0 3
3
1
2
3
3
3
18
3
9170 2
3
1
2
1
2
1
12
1
ALTI: Altitudinal distribution; WATER: Dependency on ground- and surface water in water balance; COVER: Decrease of
territorial coverage; NEOP: Influence of neophytes;
Figure 8: Regional sensitivity map


[15]
Table 16: Indicator values for Temperature

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
2330
37
37
1,25
2,25
35
Med
Indifferent
3270
35
35
2,25
34
Med
Indifferent
6410
57
57
1,25
2,25
55
Med
Indifferent
6510
38
38
1,25
2,25
36
Med
Indifferent
7110
20
19
2,5
2,25
19
Med
Indifferent
7140
26
25
2,25
24
Med
Indifferent
7230
20
19
2,5
2,25
19
Med
Indifferent
9160
16
16
2,25
2,25
12
Med
Indifferent
9170
18
18
1,25
2,125
11
Med
Indifferent
91D0
31
31
1,25
2,25
28
Med
Indifferent
91E0
28
28
2,25
26
Med
indifferent
Figure 9: Indicator Map

[16]
Table 17: Indicator values for Moisture

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
2330
37
37
11
22
Moist/Wet
> Dry
3270
35
35
1,75
29
Moist/Wet
> Dry
6410
57
57
41
14
Moist/Wet
> Dry
6510
38
38
31
Moist
Indifferent
7110
20
20
12
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7140
26
26
10
16
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7230
20
20
12
Moist/Wet
> Dry
9160
16
16
1,25
1,5
14
Moist
Indifferent
9170
18
18
1,5
11
Dry/Moist
> Wet
91D0
31
31
1,5
2,5
17
14
Moist/Wet
> Dry
91E0
28
28
1,5
2,5
18
10
Moist/Wet
> Dry


[17]
3.1.2. Exposure
Figure 11: Ensemble plots showing exposure per vegetation periods

Table 18: Exposure values per vegetation periods

CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
25.42
-1.91
-0.31
-1.14
18.28
VEG 2/3
18.2
-0.22
1.37
0.89
26.75
VEG 3/3
19.15
0.63
0.75
0.21
24.56
5.5
-23.37
2.3
1.55
-33.93
-19
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.53
-0.92
-0.21
-0.73
0.37
0.32
VEG 2/3
0.38
-0.11
0.92
0.57
0.54
0.4
VEG 3/3
0.4
0.31
0.5
0.13
0.49
0.44
DORM
[18]
DORM
-0.49
1.11
1.04
0.64
-0.68
-1.54
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-3
-1
-2
VEG 2/3
-1
VEG 3/3
DORM
-2
-2
-3
Abbreviations: CWB Climatic water balance; TAS Temperature mean; TASMIN Temp. min.; TASMAX Temp. max.;
PRSUM Mean precipitation; DRYDAYS No. of consecutive dry days.
Table 19: Impact calculation table

CWB Vegetation Periods
Code
Sensitivity
2330
TAS per Vegetation Periods
Sum
1/3
1/3
2/3
3/3
1/3
2/3
3/3
Ind. TEMP
2/3
3/3
Indifferent
3270
Indifferent
> Dry
6410
Indifferent
> Dry
6510
Indifferent
7110
Indifferent
> Dry
7140
Indifferent
> Dry
7230
Indifferent
> Dry
9160
Indifferent
91D0
Indifferent
> Wet
91E0
Indifferent
> Dry
9170
Indifferent
> Dry
2
2
Ind. MOIST
Table 20: Potential impact magnitudes

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
2330
3270
6410
6510
7110
7140
7230
9160
91D0

[19]
91E0
9170
Figure 12:
Potential Impact Map (Vegetation Period 1/3)

[20]
Figure 13:


[21]
Figure 14:

[22]
Figure 15:
Potential Impact Map (Vegetation Period D)


[23]
3.2. Flusslandschaft Elbe - Brandenburg Biosphere Reserve, Germany

Code
Description
2310
Dry sand heaths with Calluna and Genista
2330
Inland dunes with open Corynephorus and Agrostis grasslands
3130
3260
Oligotrophic to mesotrophic standing waters with vegetation of the Littorelletea uniflorae and/or of the IsotoNanojuncetea
Water courses of plain to montane levels with the Ranunculion fluitantis and Callitricho-Batrachion vegetation
4010
Northern Atlantic wet heaths with Erica tetralix
6210
6410
Semi-natural dry grasslands and scrubland facies on calcareous substrates (Festuco-Brometalia) (* important orchid
sites)
* Species-rich Nardus grasslands, on silicious substrates in mountain areas (and submountain areas in Continental
Europe)
6430
Hydrophilous tall herb fringe communities of plains and of the montane to alpine levels
6440
Alluvial meadows of river valleys of the Cnidion dubii
6510
7140
7210
* Calcareous fens with Cladium mariscus and species of the Caricion davallianae
7230
Alkaline fens
9110
Luzulo-Fagetum beech forests
9130
Asperulo-Fagetum beech forests
9160
Sub-Atlantic and medio-European oak or oak-hornbeam forests of the Carpinion betuli
9190
Old acidophilous oak woods with Quercus robur on sandy plains
91D0
* Bog woodland
91E0
91F0
Riparian mixed forests of Quercus robur, Ulmus laevis and Ulmus minor, Fraxinus excelsior or Fraxinus angustifolia,
along the great rivers (Ulmenion minoris)
6230
3.2.1. Sensitivity

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
2310
13
2330
14
3130
17
3260
17
4010
18
6210
17
[24]
6230
15
6410
15
6430
16
6440
16
6510
16
7140
18
7210
16
7230
17
9110
15
9130
15
9160
16
9190
14
91D0
18
91E0
18
91F0
18

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
2310
1,75
1,5
Low/Med
> High
2330
1,25
1,5
Low/Med
> High
3130
18
17
1,5
Low/Med
> High
3260
1,25
2,5
Low/Med
> High
4010
Low
> High
6210
34
34
1,25
1,75
22
Med/High
> Low
6230
20
19
1,25
1,5
15
Low/Med
> High
6410
25
22
1,625
17
Low/Med
> High
6430
26
24
1,25
1,5
21
Med
Indifferent
6440
1,25
2,5
Med/High
> Low
6510
17
16
1,25
1,875
11
Med/High
> Low
7140
23
16
1,25
2,25
14
Med
Indifferent
7210
1,5
1,5
1,5
Med
Indifferent
7230
27
26
1,25
1,75
19
Low/Med
> High
9110
10
10
1,25
2,5
1,75
Low/Med
> High
9130
2,5
1,375
Low/Med
> High
9160
10
10
1,25
2,5
1,75
Low/Med
> High
9190
10
1,25
2,5
Low/Med
> High
91D0
19
11
1,25
Med/High
> Low

[25]
91E0
28
22
2,5
1,625
17
Low/Med
> High
91F0
21
17
1,25
12
Med/High
> Low

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
2310
1,5
1,5
1,5
Moist
indifferent
2330
Dry
> Wet
3130
18
16
1,75
2,5
Moist/Wet
> Dry
3260
Wet
> Dry
4010
2,5
2,5
2,5
Moist
indifferent
6210
34
34
1,5
1,125
33
Dry
> Wet
6230
20
17
1,25
2,5
1,5
10
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6410
25
20
18
Moist
indifferent
6430
26
25
1,5
23
Moist
indifferent
6440
2,5
2,5
Moist
indifferent
6510
17
14
1,75
1,25
Dry/Moist
> Wet
7140
23
22
1,75
13
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7210
Wet
> Dry
7230
27
26
1,25
2,5
13
12
Moist/Wet
> Dry
9110
10
1,5
1,5
Moist
indifferent
9130
1,5
1,5
1,5
Moist
indifferent
9160
10
1,5
1,75
1,5
Moist
indifferent
9190
10
1,5
2,5
2,25
Moist
indifferent
91D0
19
1,25
2,5
Moist/Wet
> Dry
91E0
28
26
1,5
2,5
22
Moist/Wet
> Dry
91F0
21
15
1,25
13
Moisz
> Dry
[26]
3.2.2. Exposure


CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
58.48
-1.55
-0.63
-1.69
44.99
VEG 2/3
10.72
-0.34
0.92
0.51
32.08
VEG 3/3
29.48
1.04
0.86
0.55
39.03
6.5
-52.35
2.06
1.18
0.9
-66.06
-24
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
1.04
-0.81
-0.43
-1.02
0.77
0.4
VEG 2/3
0.19
-0.18
0.63
0.3
0.55
0.61
VEG 3/3
0.52
0.54
0.59
0.33
0.67
0.44
DORM

[27]
DORM
-0.93
1.07
0.81
0.54
-1.13
-1.62
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-2
-2
-3
VEG 2/3
-1
VEG 3/3
DORM
-3
-3
-3

Sum
Ind. TEMP
1/3
Code
Sensitivity
1/3
2/3
3/3
2310
> High
2330
> High
3130
> High
3260
> High
4010
> High
6210
> Low
6230
> High
6410
> High
6430
Indifferent
6440
> Low
6510
> Low
7140
Indifferent
7210
Indifferent
7230
9110
9130
9160
9190
91D0
91E0
91F0
[28]

3/3
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
indifferent
> Wet
> Dry
> Dry
indifferent
> Wet
> Wet
indifferent
indifferent
indifferent
> Wet
> Dry
> Dry
> High
> Dry
> High
indifferent
> High
indifferent
> High
indifferent
> High
indifferent
> Low
> Dry
> High
> Dry
> Low
> Dry
3
3
2
3
2/3

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
2310
2330
3130
3260
4010
6210
6230
6410
6430
6440
6510
7140
7210
7230
9110
9130
9160
9190
91D0
91E0
91F0

[29]
3.3. Vessertal - Thuringian Forest Biosphere Reserve, Germany

Code
Description
3160
Natural dystrophic lakes and ponds
3260
4030
European dry heaths
6230
6430
Europe)
6510
6520
Mountain hay meadows
7110
7120
Degraded raised bogs still capable of natural regeneration
7140
7230
Alkaline fens
8150
Medio-European upland siliceous screes
8220
Siliceous rocky slopes with chasmophytic vegetation
8230
Siliceous rock with pioneer vegetation of the Sedo-Scleranthion or of the Sedo albi-Veronicion dillenii
9110
9130
Asperulo-Fagetum beech forests
9180
* Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines
91D0
* Bog woodland
91E0
9410
Acidophilous Picea forests of the montane to alpine levels (Vaccinio-Piceetea)
[30]

3.3.1. Sensitivity

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
3160
18
3260
17
4030
15
6230
15
6430
16
6510
16
6520
15
7110
18
7120
18
7140
18
7230
17
8150
14

[31]
8220
16
8230
16
9110
15
9130
15
9180
17
91D0
18
91E0
18
9410
19


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
3160
11
1,25
1,875
Med
indifferent
3260
1,25
2,5
Low/Med
> High
[32]
4030
1,5
Low/Med
> High
6230
20
19
1,25
1,5
14
Low/Med
> High
6430
26
24
1,25
1,5
21
Med
indifferent
6510
17
17
1,25
1,75
12
Med/High
> Low
6520
26
23
1,25
1,75
19
Med
indifferent
7110
24
20
1,25
14
Med
indifferent
7140
23
17
1,25
15
Med
indifferent
7230
26
26
1,25
1,75
19
Low/Med
> High
8150
1,25
1,5
Low/Med
> High
8220
22
22
1,75
11
Low/Med
> High
8230
15
14
1,25
2,5
1,75
10
Low/Med
> High
9110
10
10
1,25
2,5
1,75
Low/Med
> High
9130
2,5
1,375
Low/Med
> High
9180
10
10
1,25
1,75
1,625
Low/Med
> High
91D0
16
14
1,25
11
Med
indifferent
91E0
26
22
2,5
1,5
17
Low/Med
> High
9410
18
16
1,25
1,875
12
Med
indifferent


[33]

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
3160
11
11
1,25
10
Wet
> Dry
3260
Wet
> Dry
4030
1,75
1,5
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6230
20
17
1,25
2,5
1,5
10
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6430
26
25
1,5
23
Moist
indifferent
6510
17
14
1,75
1,25
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6520
26
24
2,5
1,5
20
Dry/Moist
> Wet
7110
24
23
1,75
17
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7140
23
23
1,25
13
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7230
26
26
1,25
2,5
13
12
Moist/Wet
> Dry
8150
1,5
1,25
Dry/Moist
> Wet
8220
22
22
1,75
1,25
17
Dry/Moist
> Wet
8230
15
15
1,5
14
Dry
> Wet
9110
10
1,5
1,5
Moist
indifferent
9130
1,5
1,5
1,5
Moist
indifferent
9180
10
1,5
1,75
1,5
Moist
indifferent
91D0
16
11
1,25
2,5
Moist
indifferent
91E0
26
26
1,5
2,5
22
Moist/Wet
> Dry
9410
18
1,25
1,5
Dry/Moist
> Wet
[34]
Figure 20:
Indicator Map

[35]
3.3.2. Exposure


CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
51.22
-2.07
-0.47
-1.03
38.28
VEG 2/3
8.37
-0.59
0.93
0.91
27.54
9.5
VEG 3/3
42.48
1.08
0.94
0.69
50.35
-40.56
2.28
1.39
0.97
-56.59
-20
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.83
-1.05
-0.32
-0.61
0.59
0.31
VEG 2/3
0.13
-0.29
0.64
0.54
0.42
0.73
DORM
[36]
VEG 3/3
0.68
0.54
0.65
0.41
0.78
0.54
-0.65
1.15
0.96
0.58
-0.87
-1.53
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-3
-2
-2
VEG 2/3
-1
VEG 3/3
DORM
-2
-2
-3
DORM

Code
Sensitivity
1/3
2/3
3160
3260
4030
6230
6430
6510
6520
7110
7140
Sum
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
3/3
Ind. TEMP
1/3
2/3
indifferent
> Dry
> High
> Dry
> High
> Wet
> High
> Wet
indifferent
indifferent
> Low
> Wet
indifferent
> Wet
indifferent
> Dry
indifferent
> Dry
7230
> High
> Dry
8150
> High
> Wet
8220
> High
> Wet
8230
> High
> Wet
9110
> High
indifferent
9130
> High
indifferent
9180
> High
indifferent
91D0
indifferent
indifferent
91E0
> High
> Dry
9410
indifferent
> Wet
2
1
2
2

3/3
[37]

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
3160
3260
4030
6230
6430
6510
6520
7110
7140
7230
8150
8220
8230
9110
9130
9180
91D0
91E0
9410
[38]
Figure 22: Potential Impact Map (Vegetation Period 1/3)


[39]
Figure 23:

[40]
Figure 24:


[41]
Figure 25:

[42]
3.4. Natural Park Bucegi, Romania

Code
Description
4060
Alpine and Boreal heaths
4070
* Bushes with Pinus mugo and Rhododendron hirsutum (Mugo-Rhododendretum hirsuti)
6150
Siliceous alpine and boreal grasslands
6230
6430
Europe)
8120
Calcareous and calcshist screes of the montane to alpine levels (Thlaspietea rotundifolii)
8210
Calcareous rocky slopes with chasmophytic vegetation
9110
91V0
Dacian Beech forests (Symphyto-Fagion)
9410
Acidophilous Picea forests of the montane to alpine levels (Vaccinio-Piceetea)


[43]
3.4.1. Sensitivity
Table 36: Regional expert knowledge assessment (alpine region)

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
4060
14
4070
12
6150
13
6230
13
6430
16
8120
12
8210
15
9110
15
91V0
14
9410
19

[44]

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
4060
80
72
2,5
1,25
44
28
Low/Med
> High
4070
15
14
1,25
1,625
11
Low/Med
> High
6150
130
118
1,5
53
59
Low/Med
> High
6230
78
72
1,5
28
39
Low/Med
> High
6430
30
28
1,5
2,5
28
Med
indifferent
8120
29
26
1,25
20
Low
> High
8210
31
27
1,25
20
Low/Med
> High
9110
68
62
1,5
57
Med
indifferent
91V0
107
99
1,5
86
13
Med
indifferent
9410
234
216
1,25
188
22
Med
indifferent


[45]

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
4060
80
73
1,75
71
Moist
indifferent
4070
15
14
2,5
1,75
15
Moist
indifferent
6150
130
118
1,75
116
10
Moist
indifferent
6230
78
72
2,5
1,75
74
Moist
indifferent
6430
30
28
1,75
26
Moist
indifferent
8120
29
26
1,75
28
Moist
indifferent
8210
31
27
1,75
29
Moist
indifferent
9110
68
62
1,25
64
Moist
indifferent
91V0
107
98
1,25
1,75
99
Moist
indifferent
9410
234
216
1,75
209
24
Moist
indifferent

[46]
3.4.2. Exposure
Figure 30:
Ensemble plots showing exposure per vegetation periods

CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
4.85
-1.53
-0.3
-0.51
-0.16
VEG 2/3
-6.57
0.06
1.73
2.1
15.61
10
VEG 3/3
2.38
1.37
1.18
0.85
12.51
7.5
-62.84
1.92
1.45
1.03
-72.55
-15
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.07
-0.71
-0.18
-0.29
0.58
VEG 2/3
-0.1
0.03
1.07
1.17
0.22
0.83
DORM

[47]
VEG 3/3
0.04
0.63
0.73
0.48
0.18
0.62
-0.93
0.89
0.89
0.57
-1.03
-1.24
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-2
-1
-1
VEG 2/3
-1
VEG 3/3
DORM
-3
-3
-3
DORM

2/3
3/3
Sum
Ind. TEMP
1/3
Code
Sensitivity
1/3
4060
> High
4070
6150
6230
6430
3/3
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
indifferent
> High
indifferent
> High
indifferent
> High
indifferent
indifferent
indifferent
8120
> High
indifferent
8210
> High
indifferent
9110
indifferent
indifferent
91V0
indifferent
indifferent
9410
indifferent
indifferent

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
4060
4070
6150
6230
6430
8120
8210
[48]
2/3
9110
91V0
9410
Figure 31:


[49]
Figure 32:

[50]
Figure 33:


[51]
Figure 34:
[52]

3.5. Balaton Uplands National Park, Hungary

Code
Description
6240
* Sub-Pannonic steppic grasslands
6410
7230
Alkaline fens
6440
7210
6210
91E0
Semi-natural dry grasslands and scrubland facies on calcareous substrates (Festuco-Brometalia) (* important
orchid sites)
3160
6230
* Species-rich Nardus grasslands, on silicious substrates in mountain areas (and submountain areas in
Continental Europe)
Pannonian-Balkanic turkey oak sessile oak forests
91M0
Figure 35:
Map of the habitat types


[53]
3.5.1. Sensitivity
Table 43: Regional expert knowledge assessment (pannonian region)

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
3160
18
6210
10
6230
10
6240
6410
13
6440
13
7210
7230
16
91E0
13
91M0

[54]

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
3160
1,75
2,5
1,875
Med
Indifferent
6210
71
70
1,75
60
10
Med
Indifferent
6230
19
18
1,5
16
Med
Indifferent
6240
86
83
1,75
2,5
42
41
Med/High
> Low
6410
100
97
1,75
91
Med
Indifferent
6440
25
25
1,75
24
Med
Indifferent
7210
2,5
Med
Indifferent
7230
19
18
1,75
15
Med/High
> Low
91E0
34
34
1,75
2,5
34
Med
Indifferent
91M0
19
19
1,75
2,5
15
Med/High
> Low


[55]

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
3160
Wet
> Dry
6210
71
70
2,5
1,25
51
19
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6230
19
18
2,5
1,25
11
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6240
86
83
2,5
76
Dry
> Wet
6410
100
97
11
78
Moist
Indifferent
6440
25
25
1,5
21
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7210
2,5
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7230
19
18
2,5
2,5
10
Moist/Wet
> Dry
91E0
34
34
1,5
15
19
Moist/Wet
> Dry
91M0
19
19
1,5
11
Dry/Moist
> Wet
Figure 38:
Indicator Map
[56]
3.5.2. Exposure


CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
30.19
-0.85
-0.04
-0.77
22.69
VEG 2/3
-5.8
-0.73
1.36
1.26
15.79
VEG 3/3
12.52
1.39
0.69
27.16
-35.18
2.85
1.24
0.99
-44.32
-19
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.67
-0.36
-0.03
-0.43
0.5
0.56
VEG 2/3
-0.13
-0.31
0.88
0.72
0.35
0.63
DORM

[57]
VEG 3/3
0.28
0.59
0.65
0.39
0.6
0.56
-0.78
1.22
0.8
0.56
-0.97
-1.33
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-2
-1
-2
VEG 2/3
-1
-2
VEG 3/3
DORM
-2
-3
-3
DORM

Code
Sensitivity
1/3
3160
6210
2/3
Sum
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
> Dry
Ind. TEMP
1/3
2/3
Indifferent
Indifferent
> Wet
6230
Indifferent
> Wet
6240
> Low
> Wet
6410
Indifferent
Indifferent
6440
Indifferent
> Dry
7210
Indifferent
> Dry
7230
> Low
> Dry
91E0
Indifferent
> Dry
91M0
> Low
> Wet
1
2
1
3/3

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
3160
6210
6230
6240
6410
6440
7210
[58]
3/3
7230
91E0
91M0
Figure 40:


[59]
Figure 41:

[60]
Figure 42:


[61]
Figure 43:

[62]
3.6. Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania

Code
Description
1110
Sandbanks which are slightly covered by sea water all the time
1140
Mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide
1150
* Coastal lagoons
1160
Large shallow inlets and bays
1210
Annual vegetation of drift lines
1310
Salicornia and other annuals colonizing mud and sand
1340
* Inland salt meadows
1410
Mediterranean salt meadows (Juncetalia maritimi)
1530
* Pannonic salt steppes and salt marshes
2110
Embryonic shifting dunes
2130
* Fixed coastal dunes with herbaceous vegetation (grey dunes)
2160
Dunes with Hippopha rhamnoides
2190
Humid dune slacks
2340
* Pannonic inland dunes
3130
3140
Hard oligo-mesotrophic waters with benthic vegetation of Chara spp.
3150
Natural eutrophic lakes with Magnopotamion or Hydrocharition type vegetation
3160
3260
3270
Rivers with muddy banks with Chenopodion rubri p.p. and Bidention p.p. vegetation
40C0
* Ponto-Sarmatic deciduous thickets
6120
* Xeric sand calcareous grasslands
6260
* Pannonic sand steppes
6420
Mediterranean tall humid grasslands of the Molinio-Holoschoenion
6440
6510
91AA
* Eastern white oak woods
91F0
92A0
Salix alba and Populus alba galleries
92D0
Southern riparian galleries and thickets (Nerio-Tamaricetea and Securinegion tinctoriae)

[63]
Figure 44:

3.6.1. Sensitivity
Table 50: Regional expert knowledge assessment (Delta area)

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
1110
1140
11
1150
15
1160
11
1210
11
1310
10
1340
16
1410
15
1530
12
2110
2130
12
2160
10
[64]
2190
2340
3130
3140
3150
14
11
17
18
15
3160
18
3260
17
3270
16
40C0
11
6120
15
6260
18
6420
11
6440
16
6510
16
91AA
11
91F0
18
92A0
17
92D0
11

[65]


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
1110
1,25
1,25
Low/High
Indifferent
1150
2,5
Med/High
> Low
1160
1,75
2,375
Med/High
> Low
1210
1,5
2,25
Med/High
> Low
1310
2,5
2,5
Med/High
> Low
1340
2,5
2,5
2,5
Med
Indifferent
1410
1,5
2,25
Med/High
> Low
1530
2,5
2,75
Med/High
> Low
2110
2,5
2,25
Med
Indifferent
2130
1,5
2,5
Med/High
> Low
2160
2,5
Med
Indifferent
2190
1,75
Med/High
> Low
2340
Med
> Low
3130
1,25
1,625
Low/Med
> High
3150
1,25
1,875
Low/Med
> High
[66]
3160
1,5
Med
Indifferent
3260
1,25
2,5
Low/Med
> High
3270
2,5
Med
Indifferent
6120
1,5
2,5
Med/High
> Low
6260
High
> Low
6420
1,5
1,75
Med
Indifferent
6440
2,5
Med/High
> Low
6510
2,5
2,25
Med
Indifferent
91AA
1,75
1,75
1,75
Med
Indifferent
91F0
2,5
Med/High
> Low
92A0
1,5
2,5
Med/High
> Low
92D0
High
> Low


[67]

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
1110
Wet
> Dry
1150
Wet
> Dry
1160
Wet
> Dry
1210
2,5
1,75
Dry/Moist
> Wet
1310
2,5
2,5
Moist
Indifferent
1340
1,5
1,75
1,625
Moist
Indifferent
1410
2,5
2,25
Moist
Indifferent
1530
Dry
> Wet
2110
1,5
Dry/Moist
> Wet
2130
Dry
> Wet
2160
1,25
Dry/Moist
> Wet
2190
2,5
1,5
Dry/Moist
> Wet
2340
Dry
> Wet
3130
3150
Wet
> Dry
3160
Wet
> Dry
3260
Wet
> Dry
3270
1,5
Moist/Wet
> Dry
6120
Dry
> Wet
6260
Dry
> Wet
6420
2,5
2,75
Moist/Wet
> Dry
6440
2,5
Moist
Indifferent
6510
1,5
1,75
1,5
Moist
Indifferent
91AA
Dry
> Wet
91F0
2,5
2,25
Moist
Indifferent
92A0
1,75
Moist/Wet
> Dry
[68]
> Dry

3.6.2. Exposure

[69]


CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
6.97
0.22
0.29
0.06
4.18
6.5
VEG 2/3
-4.8
-0.05
1.62
1.62
8.06
VEG 3/3
4.65
1.4
2.01
1.71
12.69
-6.89
3.38
1.72
1.65
-17.32
-13
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.17
0.1
0.16
0.04
0.1
0.51
VEG 2/3
-0.11
-0.02
0.9
0.89
0.2
0.63
VEG 3/3
0.11
0.63
1.11
0.94
0.31
0.55
DORM
[70]
DORM
-0.16
1.52
0.96
0.91
-0.43
-1.02
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
VEG 2/3
-1
-1
VEG 3/3
DORM
-1
-2
-3

Code
Sensitivity
1/3
2/3
1110
1150
1160
1210
3/3
Ind. TEMP
Sum
1/3
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
2/3
3/3
Indifferent
> Dry
> Low
> Dry
> Low
> Dry
> Low
> Wet
1310
> Low
Indifferent
1340
Indifferent
Indifferent
1410
> Low
Indifferent
1530
> Low
> Wet
2110
Indifferent
> Wet
2130
> Low
> Wet
2160
Indifferent
> Wet
2190
> Low
> Wet
2340
> Low
> Wet
3130
> High
> Dry
3150
> High
> Dry
3160
Indifferent
> Dry
3260
> High
> Dry
3270
Indifferent
> Dry
6120
> Low
> Wet
6260
> Low
> Wet
6420
Indifferent
> Dry
6440
6510
91AA
> Low
Indifferent
Indifferent
Indifferent
Indifferent
> Wet

[71]
91F0
> Low
92A0
> Low

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
1110
1150
1160
1210
1310
1340
1410
1530
2110
2130
2160
2190
2340
3130
3150
3160
3260
3270
6120
6260
6420
6440
6510
91AA
91F0
92A0
[72]
2
1
Indifferent
> Dry
Figure 49:


[73]
Figure 50:

[74]
Figure 51:


[75]
Figure 52:

[76]
3.7. Koros-Maros National Park, Hungary

Code
Description
1530
3150
6250
* Pannonic loess steppic grasslands
6440
91E0


[77]
3.7.1. Sensitivity

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
1530
12
3150
16
6250
18
6440
16
91E0
13

[78]

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
1530
210
206
1,75
2,5
112
94
Med/High
> Low
3150
35
34
2,5
27
Med/High
> Low
6250
167
167
2,5
107
60
Med/High
> Low
6440
128
127
1,75
2,5
106
21
Med/High
> Low
91E0
58
54
1,5
51
Med
Indifferent


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
1530
210
206
1,75
76
88
42
Dry/Wet
Indifferent
3150
35
34
2,5
32
Wet
> Dry
6250
167
167
143
24
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6440
128
127
2,5
65
55
Moist/Wet
> Dry
91E0
58
54
1,5
2,5
31
23
Moist/Wet
> Dry

[79]

[80]
3.7.2. Exposure


CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
27.03
-0.75
-0.28
-0.67
23.97
VEG 2/3
-10.3
-0.7
1.3
1.19
7.8
9.5
VEG 3/3
13.37
1.67
0.79
0.55
25.22
-26.39
2.8
1.4
1.01
-36.73
-19
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.68
-0.31
-0.17
-0.36
0.61
0.62
VEG 2/3
-0.26
-0.29
0.78
0.64
0.2
0.65
DORM

[81]
VEG 3/3
0.34
0.68
0.48
0.29
0.64
0.48
-0.67
1.14
0.84
0.54
-0.94
-1.3
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-2
-1
-2
VEG 2/3
-1
-1
VEG 3/3
DORM
-2
-3
-3
DORM

Code
Sensitivity
1530
3150
1/3
2/3
Sum
Ind. TEMP
1/3
> Low
> Low
6250
> Low
6440
> Low
91E0
Indifferent
3/3

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
1530
3150
6250
6440
91E0
[82]
2/3
3/3
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
Indifferent
> Dry
> Wet
> Dry
> Dry
Figure 58:


[83]
Figure 59:

[84]
Figure 60:


[85]
Figure 61:

3.8. Lake Neusiedl / Fert - Hansag National Park, Austria / Hungary

Code
Description
1530
3130
3150
3160
3260
40A0
* Subcontinental peri-Pannonic scrub
6110
* Rupicolous calcareous or basophilic grasslands of the Alysso-Sedion albi
6190
Rupicolous pannonic grasslands (Stipo-Festucetalia pallentis)
6210
6240
Semi-natural dry grasslands and scrubland facies on calcareous substrates (Festuco-Brometalia) (* important orchid
sites)
* Sub-Pannonic steppic grasslands
6250
* Pannonic loess steppic grasslands
[86]
6260
* Pannonic sand steppes
6410
6440
6510
7210
7230
Alkaline fens
9170
Galio-Carpinetum oak-hornbeam forests
9180
* Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines
91E0
91F0
91G0
* Pannonic woods with Quercus petraea and Carpinus betulus
91H0
* Pannonian woods with Quercus pubescens
91I0
* Euro-Siberian steppic woods with Quercus spp.
91M0
Pannonian-Balkanic turkey oak sessile oak forests
9260
Castanea sativa woods
Figure 62:

3.8.1. Sensitivity

[87]

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
1530
12
3130
17
3150
15
3160
18
3260
17
6110
14
6190
14
6210
10
6240
6250
18
6260
18
6410
13
6440
13
6510
16
7210
7230
16
9170
12
9180
17
91E0
13
91F0
18
91G0
12
91H0
10
91I0
18
91M0
[88]


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
1530
11
10
Med/High
> Low
3130
18
1,75
2,5
Med/High
> Low
3150
2,5
Med/High
> Low
3160
14
1,75
2,5
1,75
Med
Indifferent
3260
2,5
2,5
Med
Indifferent
6110
2,5
2,75
Med/High
> Low
6190
20
20
1,5
14
Med/High
> Low
6210
34
34
2,5
25
Med/High
> Low
6240
23
23
2,5
18
Med/High
> Low
6250
15
14
2,5
12
Med/High
> Low
6260
12
12
2,5
10
Med/High
> Low
6410
25
19
1,75
2,5
19
Med
Indifferent
6440
2,5
2,75
Med/High
> Low
6510
17
12
2,5
12
Med
Indifferent
7210
2,5
2,5
2,5
Med
Indifferent

[89]
7230
27
15
1,75
14
Med
Indifferent
9170
11
11
2,5
Med/High
> Low
9180
10
2,5
Med
Indifferent
91E0
28
24
1,5
22
Med
Indifferent
91F0
21
14
2,5
Med/High
> Low
91G0
15
15
2,5
12
Med/High
> Low
91H0
21
21
2,5
16
Med/High
> Low
91I0
20
20
2,5
12
Med/High
> Low
91M0
33
31
2,5
17
14
Med/High
> Low


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
1530
11
10
2,5
1,375
Dry/Moist
> Wet
3130
18
Moist/Wet
> Dry
3150
Wet
> Dry
3160
14
Wet
> Dry
[90]
3260
Wet
> Dry
6110
1,25
Dry
> Wet
6190
20
20
20
Dry
> Wet
6210
34
34
1,75
1,125
29
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6240
23
23
23
Dry
> Wet
6250
15
14
1,25
14
Dry
> Wet
6260
12
12
12
Dry
> Wet
6410
25
19
1,25
17
Moist
Indifferent
6440
2,5
2,5
Moist
Indifferent
6510
17
12
1,75
1,5
Dry/Moist
> Wet
7210
Wet
> Dry
7230
27
15
1,75
Moist/Wet
> Dry
9170
11
11
1,25
1,75
1,5
Dry/Moist
> Wet
9180
10
1,5
1,625
Moist
Indifferent
91E0
28
24
1,5
2,25
18
Moist/Wet
> Dry
91F0
21
14
1,25
1,75
11
Dry/Moist
> Wet
91G0
15
15
1,25
1,75
1,5
11
Dry/Moist
> Wet
91H0
21
21
1,5
1,25
16
Dry/Moist
> Wet
91I0
20
20
1,375
10
10
Dry/Moist
> Wet
91M0
33
31
1,5
1,5
12
19
Dry/Moist
> Wet

[91]

[92]
3.8.2. Exposure


CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
37.73
-0.75
-0.44
23.36
VEG 2/3
4.94
-0.75
1.39
1.28
21.02
VEG 3/3
13.57
1.18
0.97
0.39
31.99
7.5
-23.78
2.42
1.12
0.9
-43.74
-23
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.82
-0.33
-0.25
0.5
0.49
VEG 2/3
0.11
-0.33
0.89
0.72
0.45
0.56
DORM

[93]
VEG 3/3
0.3
0.52
0.62
0.22
0.68
0.53
-0.52
1.06
0.72
0.51
-0.93
-1.61
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-2
-1
VEG 2/3
-2
VEG 3/3
DORM
-2
-3
-3
DORM

Code
Sensitivity
1530
3/3
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
> Wet
Ind. TEMP
1/3
2/3
3/3
> Low
3130
> Low
> Dry
3150
> Low
> Dry
3160
Indifferent
> Dry
3260
Indifferent
> Dry
6110
> Low
> Wet
6190
> Low
> Wet
6210
> Low
> Wet
6240
> Low
> Wet
6250
> Low
> Wet
6260
> Low
> Wet
6410
Indifferent
Indifferent
6440
> Low
Indifferent
6510
Indifferent
> Wet
7210
Indifferent
> Dry
7230
Indifferent
> Dry
9170
> Low
> Wet
9180
Indifferent
Indifferent
91E0
Indifferent
> Dry
91F0
> Low
> Wet
91G0
> Low
> Wet
91H0
> Low
> Wet
91I0
> Low
> Wet
91M0
> Low
> Wet
2/3
Sum
[94]
1/3

D

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
1530
3130
3150
3160
3260
6110
6190
6210
6240
6250
6260
6410
6440
6510
7210
7230
9170
9180
91E0
91F0
91G0
91H0
91I0
91M0

[95]
Figure 67:

[96]
Figure 68:


[97]
Figure 69:

[98]
Figure 70:


[99]
3.9. Seovlje Salina Nature Park ,Slovenia

Code
Description
1130
Estuaries
1140
Mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide
1310
Salicornia and other annuals colonizing mud and sand
1410
Mediterranean salt meadows (Juncetalia maritimi)
1420
Mediterranean and thermo-Atlantic halophilous scrubs (Sarcocornetea fruticosi)
3.9.1. Sensitivity
Table 71: Regional expert knowledge assessment (Slovenian coastal area)

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
1130
14
1140
11
1310
10
1410
15
1420
15

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
1130
1,25
1,25
Low/High
Indifferent
1310
2,5
Med/High
> Low
1410
1,5
Med/High
> Low
1420
1,5
Med/High
> Low

Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
1130
Wet
> Dry
1310
1,5
2,5
Moist
Indifferent
[100]
1410
Moist
Indifferent
1420
1,75
2,5
2,25
Moist
Indifferent
3.9.2. Exposure


[101]

CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
27.71
0.77
0.47
0.34
28.86
3.5
VEG 2/3
9.65
-0.42
0.47
0.23
10.57
5.5
VEG 3/3
-13.91
-0.04
1.47
1.65
-2.11
5.5
DORM
-20.57
3.23
2.7
2.94
-18.96
-7
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.4
0.4
0.27
0.19
0.46
0.42
VEG 2/3
0.14
-0.22
0.27
0.12
0.17
0.65
VEG 3/3
-0.2
-0.02
0.85
0.9
-0.03
0.65
DORM
-0.3
1.69
1.55
1.61
-0.3
-0.83
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
VEG 2/3
-1
VEG 3/3
-1
-1
-1
DORM
-1
-1
-2

3/3
Ind. TEMP
Sum
1/3
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
> Dry
Code
Sensitivity
1/3
1130
1310
> Low
Indifferent
1410
> Low
Indifferent
1420
> Low
Indifferent
[102]
2/3

Indifferent
2/3
3/3

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
1130
1310
1410
1420
3.10. Rieserferner - Ahrn Nature Park, Italia

Code
Description
3220
Alpine rivers and the herbaceous vegetation along their banks
4060
6150
Siliceous alpine and boreal grasslands
6170
Alpine and subalpine calcareous grasslands
6230
6430
* Species-rich Nardus grasslands, on silicious substrates in mountain areas (and submountain areas in
Continental Europe)
6520
7140
7240
* Alpine pioneer formations of the Caricion bicoloris-atrofuscae
8110
Siliceous scree of the montane to snow levels (Androsacetalia alpinae and Galeopsietalia ladani)
8120
8210
Calcareous rocky slopes with chasmophytic vegetation
8220
Siliceous rocky slopes with chasmophytic vegetation

[103]

3.10.1.
Sensitivity

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
3220
16
4060
16
6150
14
6170
13
6230
15
6430
16
6520
15
7140
18
7240
15
8110
13
8120
12
8210
16
[104]
8220
16


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
3220
1,375
Low/Med
> High
4060
18
17
1,75
1,25
10
Low/Med
> High
6150
22
22
1,5
1,25
18
Low/Med
> High
6170
14
13
1,25
12
Low
> High
6230
38
36
1,25
1,875
26
Low/Med
> High
6430
Med
Indifferent
6520
36
34
1,25
25
Low/Med
> High
7140
1,5
1,75
Med
Indifferent
7240
1,5
1,75
1,5
Med
Indifferent

[105]
8110
13
13
1,75
10
Low/Med
> High
8120
Low/Med
> High
8210
1,5
1,5
Low/Med
> High
8220
1,5
1,125
Low/Med
> High


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
3220
2,25
Moist/Wet
> Dry
4060
18
18
1,25
2,5
1,75
15
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6150
22
22
2,5
1,5
10
12
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6170
14
14
2,5
1,375
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6230
38
38
2,5
1,75
29
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6430
2,5
2,5
2,5
Moist
Indifferent
6520
36
36
1,625
27
Dry/Moist
> Wet
7140
2,5
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7240
1,25
2,25
Dry/Wet
Indifferent
[106]
8110
13
13
1,75
2,5
13
Moist
Indifferent
8120
Dry/Moist
> Wet
8210
1,25
1,25
Dry
> Wet
8220
1,375
Dry/Moist
> Wet


[107]
3.10.2.
Exposure


CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
85.89
-1.47
0.2
-0.15
88.25
VEG 2/3
1.92
0.18
1.71
1.97
21.92
VEG 3/3
40.8
0.25
0.76
0.69
41.04
5.5
-165.38
1.58
1.41
0.83
-192.77
-9
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.75
-1
0.14
-0.1
0.75
0.5
VEG 2/3
0.02
0.12
1.18
1.28
0.19
0.5
DORM
[108]
VEG 3/3
0.36
0.17
0.52
0.45
0.35
0.69
-1.45
1.08
0.97
0.54
-1.64
-1.13
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-3
-1
VEG 2/3
VEG 3/3
DORM
-3
-3
-3
DORM
3.10.3.
Potential Impacts

Sum
Ind. TEMP
1/3
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
> Dry
Code
Sensitivity
1/3
2/3
3/3
3220
> High
4060
> High
> Wet
6150
> High
> Wet
6170
> High
> Wet
6230
> High
> Wet
6430
Indifferent
Indifferent
6520
> High
> Wet
7140
Indifferent
> Dry
7240
Indifferent
Indifferent
8110
> High
Indifferent
8120
> High
> Wet
8210
> High
> Wet
8220
> High
> Wet
2
1
2/3
3/3
3
1

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
3220
4060
6150
6170

[109]
6230
6430
6520
7140
7240
8110
8120
8210
8220
Figure 77:

[110]
Figure 78:


[111]
Figure 79:

[112]
Figure 80:


[113]
3.11. Triglav National Park, Slovenia

Code
Description
4060
4070
* Bushes with Pinus mugo and Rhododendron hirsutum (Mugo-Rhododendretum hirsuti)
6170
Alpine and subalpine calcareous grasslands
6430
7230
Alkaline fens
8120
3220
Alpine rivers and the herbaceous vegetation along their banks
6230
6510
Europe)
6520
91D0
* Bog woodland
7110
7140
[114]
Figure 81:

3.11.1.
Sensitivity

Code
CONS
REGE
HORI
ALTI
WATER
COVER
NEOP
SUM
Sensitivity
3220
16
4060
16
4070
12
6170
13
6230
15
6430
16
6510
16
6520
15
7110
18
7140
18
7230
17
8120
12

[115]
91D0
18
Figure 82:
Regonal sensitivity map


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
TEMP
Low
Med
High
PRESENT
Sensitivity
3220
31
30
2,5
1,5
11
19
Low/Med
> High
4060
42
41
2,5
1,5
15
26
Low/Med
> High
4070
1,25
1,75
1,5
Low/Med
> High
6170
122
113
2,5
1,5
33
80
Low/Med
> High
6230
56
53
1,25
47
Med
Indifferent
6430
123
113
1,25
102
Med
Indifferent
6510
23
22
1,25
2,5
19
Med
Indifferent
6520
44
43
1,25
38
Med
Indifferent
7110
33
32
1,5
30
Med
Indifferent
7140
23
22
1,75
2,5
22
Med
Indifferent
7230
102
95
1,25
92
Med
Indifferent
[116]
8120
32
29
1,5
10
19
Low/Med
> High
91D0
32
26
1,5
1,875
25
Med
Indifferent


Code
Cnt.Spec
Cnt.Indv
Min
Max
Med
MOIST
Dry
Moist
Wet
PRESENT
Sensitivity
3220
31
31
1,25
2,5
1,75
11
20
Dry/Moist
> Wet
4060
42
42
1,25
2,5
1,75
13
29
Dry/Moist
> Wet
4070
1,25
2,5
1,75
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6170
122
117
2,5
1,5
43
74
Dry/Moist
> Wet
6230
56
54
2,5
1,75
50
Moist
Indifferent
6430
123
113
1,25
86
22
Moist/Wet
> Dry
6510
23
22
1,25
2,5
1,75
20
Moist
Indifferent
6520
44
43
1,25
2,5
1,75
40
Moist
Indifferent
7110
33
32
1,25
2,75
15
16
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7140
23
22
1,5
2,75
11
11
Moist/Wet
> Dry
7230
102
95
1,25
2,5
51
42
Moist/Wet
> Dry

[117]
8120
32
32
2,5
1,75
27
Dry/Moist
> Wet
91D0
32
26
1,25
1,875
20
Moist/Wet
> Dry

[118]
3.11.2.
Exposure


CWB
TAS
TASMIN
TASMAX
PRSUM
DRYDAYS
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
VEG 1/3
35.75
-1.32
-0.38
-0.46
37.78
8.5
VEG 2/3
2.69
-0.24
1.62
1.72
12.72
VEG 3/3
32.53
1.35
1.06
0.81
54
-114.55
2.17
1.37
1.13
-131.48
-17
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
Scaled Median
VEG 1/3
0.33
-0.71
-0.27
-0.32
0.34
0.65
VEG 2/3
0.02
-0.13
1.17
1.19
0.12
0.61
DORM

[119]
VEG 3/3
0.3
0.73
0.77
0.56
0.49
0.61
-1.06
1.17
0.99
0.78
-1.19
-1.3
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
Magnitude
VEG 1/3
-2
-1
-2
VEG 2/3
-1
VEG 3/3
DORM
-3
-3
-3
DORM
3.11.3.
Potential Impacts

Sum
Ind. TEMP
1/3
2/3
3/3
Ind. MOIST
1/3
2/3
3/3
Code
Sensitivity
1/3
2/3
3/3
3220
> High
> Wet
4060
> High
> Wet
4070
> High
> Wet
6170
> High
> Wet
6230
Indifferent
Indifferent
6430
Indifferent
> Dry
6510
Indifferent
Indifferent
6520
Indifferent
Indifferent
7110
Indifferent
> Dry
7140
Indifferent
> Dry
7230
Indifferent
> Dry
8120
> High
> Wet
91D0
Indifferent
> Dry
2
2

Impact
Code
1/3
2/3
3/3
3220
4060
4070
6170
[120]
6230
6430
6510
6520
7110
7140
7230
8120
91D0
Figure 86:


[121]
Figure 87:

[122]
Figure 88:


[123]
Figure 89:

4. Conclusion
In HABIT-CHANGE the assessment of climate-induced impacts on habitats focused on a framework
consisting of the sensitivity and the exposure which defined the potential impacts. The framework
needs at least the following input data for the assessment of climate induced impacts on habitats:
[124]
First of all, a list of all important habitat types per biogeographical region for which the
assessment should be done. In the project the participating regional partners provided such
lists of habitats.
Regional expert-knowledge to evaluate the sensitivity criteria for the regional occurrence of
the habitats. Within the project the evaluation was done by experts for the Alpine,
Continental and Pannonian region covering all habitats occurring within the scope of the
project.
A localised plant species list to evaluate the ecological envelope for each habitat type which
should be assessed. The participating investigation areas provided such species lists for their
habitats.
Climate scenarios to compare the conditions of the past with projected changes in the future
subdivided into the four time segments (1/3, 2/3, 3/3 of the vegetation period and dormant
period).
The framework used categories and rules for the assessment instead of modelling approaches. This
has the advantage of a simple framework that is transferrable to other biogeographical regions and
can be understood and applied by regional partners. Moreover, just a minimum of local data (e.g.
species list per habitat type) is required to yield a result representative to the supplying region or
nature conservation area. Furthermore, studies concentrating on a broader range of habitats are less
widespread. For example Renetzeder et al. (2010) used Ellenbergs indicator scheme to characterise
the ecological envelope of habitats in a landscape and to compare them with climate scenarios using
regression analysis. They concluded that natural habitats are more sensitive than strongly managed
(e.g. agricultural) ones. Another example uses species distribution models to predict the sensitivity of
habitats by using the range occupancy of the characteristic plant species (Normand et al. 2007). The
authors project the highest sensitivity of bogs, mires and fens followed by forests leaving rocky
habitats on the last position also indicated by the results of this chapter. However promising the
results of the framework are, it does not incorporate the adaptive capacity of habitats into its
approach like spatial planning studies try to do (e.g. Holsten and Kropp 2012; Rannow et al. 2010).
Nevertheless, such studies focus on political boundaries in which habitats with high conservation
values are only one part of the assessment. Therefore, it can be concluded that the presented
approach can be a valuable tool by using this simple framework to assess the climate induced
impacts on habitats.
5. References
Bakkenes, M., Eickhout, B., & Alkemade, R. (2006). Impacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios
on
plant
species
in
Europe.
Global
Environmental
Change,
16,
19-28,
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.11.001.
Bergengren, J. C., Waliser, D. E., & Yung, Y. L. (2011). Ecological sensitivity: a biospheric view of
climate change. Climatic Change, 107, 433-457, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0065-1.
Bittner, T., Jaeschke, A., Reineking, B., & Beierkuhnlein, C. (2011). Comparing modelling approaches
at two levels of biological organisation - Climate change impacts on selected Natura 2000 habitats.
Journal of Vegetation Science, 22, 699-710, doi:10.1111/j.1654-1103.2011.01266.x.
Borhidi, A. (1995). Social behaviour types, their naturalness and relative ecological indicator values of
the higher plants of the Hungarian Flora. Act. Bot. Hung., 39(1-2), 97-181.
Dullinger, S., Gattringer, A., Thuiller, W., Moser, D., Zimmermann, N. E., Guisan, A., et al. (2012).
Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change. Nature
Climate Change, 2, 1-4, doi:10.1038/nclimate1514.
Ellenberg, H. (1992). Zeigerwerte von Pflanzen in Mitteleuropa (2. verb. und erw. Aufl. ed., Scripta
geobotanica, Vol. 18). Gttingen: Goltze.
Englisch, T., & Karrer, G. (2001). Zeigerwertsysteme in der Vegetationsanalyse - Anwendbarkeit,
Nutzen und Probleme in sterreich. Ber. d. Reinh.-Txen-Ges., 13, 83-02.
European Environment Agency (2009). Biogeographical regions in Europe.
European Environment Agency (2010). Key past and projected impacts and effects of climate change
for the main biogeographical regions of Europe.
Gottfried, M., Pauli, H., Futschik, A., Akhalkatsi, M., Baranok, P., Benito Alonso, J. L., et al. (2012).
Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2,
111-115, doi:10.1038/nclimate1329.

[125]
Holsten, A., & Kropp, J. P. (2012). An integrated and transferable climate change vulnerability
assessment for regional application. Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0147-z.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. (2001). Climate change 2001:
impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment
report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK ; New York: Cambridge
University Press.
Landolt, E., & Bumler, B. (2010). Flora indicativa - kologische Zeigerwerte und biologische
Kennzeichen zur Flora der Schweiz und der Alpen (2., vllig neu bearb. und erw. Aufl. der
"kologischen Zeigerwerte zur Flora der Schweiz" (1977) ed., Editions des Conservatoire et Jardin
Botaniques de la Ville de Genve, Vol. Elias Landolt. Mitautoren: Beat Bumler ...). Bern ; Wien
[u.a.]: Haupt [u.a.].
Lepetz, V., Massot, M., Schmeller, D. S., & Clobert, J. (2009). Biodiversity monitoring: some proposals
to adequately study species responses to climate change. Biodiversity and Conservation, 18, 31853203, doi:10.1007/s10531-009-9636-0.
Milad, M., Schaich, H., Brgi, M., & Konold, W. (2011). Climate change and nature conservation in
Central European forests: A review of consequences, concepts and challenges. Forest Ecology and
Management, 261, 829-843, doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2010.10.038.
Normand, S., Svenning, J.-C., & Skov, F. (2007). National and European perspectives on climate
change sensitivity of the habitats directive characteristic plant species. Journal for Nature
Conservation, 15, 41-53, doi:10.1016/j.jnc.2006.09.001.
Parmesan, C., & Yohe, G. (2003). A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across
natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42, doi:10.1038/nature01286.
Petermann, J., Balzer, S., Ellwanger, G., Schder, E., & Ssymank, A. (2007). Klimawandel Herausforderung fr das europaweite Schutzgebietssystem Natura 2000. Naturschutz und
Biologische Vielfalt(46), 127148.
Rannow, S., Loibl, W., Greiving, S., Gruehn, D., & Meyer, B. C. (2010). Potential impacts of climate
change in GermanyIdentifying regional priorities for adaptation activities in spatial planning.
Landscape and Urban Planning, 98, 160-171, doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.08.017.
Renetzeder, C., Knoflacher, M., Loibl, W., & Wrbka, T. (2010). Are habitats of Austrian agricultural
landscapes
sensitive
to
climate
change?
Landscape
and
Urban
Planning,
doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.08.022.
Stephenson, N. L. (1990). Climatic Control of Vegetation Distribution: The Role of the Water Balance.
The American Naturalist, 135, 649-670.
[126]

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Sensitivity and Potential Impact Maps

This project is implemented through

4.3.5, 4.6.1 and 4.6.2

Potential Impact Maps

HABIT-CHANGE Adaptive management of climate-induced changes of habitat diversity

Leibniz Institute of Ecological and Regional Development (IOER), Germany

University of Vienna, Austria

2.1.1. Regional expert knowledge

2.1.2. Indicator values

Biebrza National Park, Poland

3.1.3. Potential Impacts

Flusslandschaft Elbe - Brandenburg Biosphere Reserve, Germany

3.2.3. Potential Impacts

Vessertal - Thuringian Forest Biosphere Reserve, Germany

3.3.3. Potential Impacts

Natural Park Bucegi, Romania

3.4.3. Potential Impacts

Balaton Uplands National Park, Hungary

3.5.3. Potential Impacts

Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL

3.6.3. Potential Impacts

Koros-Maros National Park, Hungary

3.7.3. Potential Impacts

Lake Neusiedl / Fert - Hansag National Park, Austria / Hungary

3.8.3. Potential Impacts

Seovlje Salina Nature Park ,Slovenia

3.9.3. Potential Impacts

3.10. Rieserferner - Ahrn Nature Park, Italia

3.10.3. Potential Impacts

3.11. Triglav National Park, Slovenia

3.11.3. Potential Impacts

Figure 1: The biogeographical regions Europe

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL

In HABIT-CHANGE the assessment of climate-induced impacts on habitats makes use of existing

Figure 2: Framework for the assessment

Framework for the Sensitivity assessment

2.1.1. Regional expert knowledge

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL

Sensitivity criteria for the regional expert knowledge assessment

2.1.2. Indicator values

Indicator schemes per biogeographical region

Categories for the indicator temperature

Categories for the indicator moisture

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL

Figure 4: Framework for the Exposure assessment

Magnitude of Exposure categories

2.3. Potential Impacts

Framework for the Impact assessment

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL

Transformation rules of the Temperature using the temperature Sensitivity

Table 11: Example of an impact assessment for alpine grassland formations

Table 12: Magnitude of Impact categories

Table 13: Main Investigation areas assessed in this combined report

Main Investigation Area

Flusslandschaft Elbe - Brandenburg Biosphere

Balaton Uplands National Park, Hungary

Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania

Koros-Maros National Park, Hungary

Lake Neusiedl / Fert - Hansag National Park,

Rieserferner - Ahrn Nature Park, Italia

Triglav National Park, Slovenia