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R. E. Evenson, et al.
Science 300, 758 (2003);
DOI: 10.1126/science.1078710
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(this information is current as of January 26, 2010 ):
REVIEW
Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution,
1960 to 2000
We summarize the ndings of a recently completed study of the productivity impacts
of international crop genetic improvement research in developing countries. Over the
period 1960 to 2000, international agricultural research centers, in collaboration with
national research programs, contributed to the development of modern varieties for
many crops. These varieties have contributed to large increases in crop production.
Productivity gains, however, have been uneven across crops and regions. Consumers
generally beneted from declines in food prices. Farmers beneted only where cost
reductions exceeded price reductions.
he development of modern or highyielding crop varieties (MVs) for developing countries began in a concerted
fashion in the late 1950s. In the mid-1960s,
scientists developed MVs of rice and wheat that
were subsequently released to farmers in Latin
America and Asia. The success of these MVs
was characterized as a Green Revolution.
Early rice and wheat MVs were rapidly adopted
in tropical and subtropical regions with good
irrigation systems or reliable rainfall. These
MVs were associated with the first two major
international agricultural research centers
(IARCs): the International Center for Wheat
and Maize Improvement in Mexico (CIMMYT) and the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines (IRRI). There are now
16 such centers that operate under the auspices
of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) (1). These centers
currently support about 8500 scientists and scientific staff, and the annual budget of the
CGIAR is currently around $340 million.
A recent study initiated by the Special
Project on Impact Assessment (SPIA) of the
CGIARs Technical Advisory Committee
(TAC) has compiled the most extensive data
yet assembled on the breeding, release, and
diffusion of MVs (2). The SPIA study allows
for a detailed analysis of the impact of international research for 11 major food crops, by
region and country, for the period 1960 to
2000 (3). Here we summarize and report the
major findings of the SPIA study.
In focusing on the impact of international
research, we do not in any sense disparage the
work of national agricultural research systems
(NARS), which played a crucial role in creating
Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA. Department of Economics, Williams College, Williamstown, MA 01267, USA.
758
Protein Crops
Root Crops
Other Cereals
Maize
Rice
Wheat
Asia
100
Latin America
80
60
40
20
0
1960s
1970s
1980s
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960s
1990s
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960s
1970s
1980s
1970s
1980s
1990s
Sub-Saharan Africa
Percent area planted
to modern varieties
were based on crosses made in IARCs. Fifteen percent of NARS-crossed MVs had an
IARC-crossed parent, and an additional 7%
had another IARC-crossed ancestor (13). Varieties with IARC ancestry were also more
widely planted than other varieties.
2) Low international flows of NARScrossed MVs. For rice, where such data were
available, only 6% of MVs originated when
one national program released a variety that
was crossed by a NARS in another developing country. By contrast, most IARC-crossed
MVs were released in several countries.
3) Negligible developed country contributions. Fewer than 1% of MVs included in
their genealogies any crosses made in public
or private sector plant-breeding programs in
developed countries.
REVIEW
1990s
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
759
Table 1. Growth rates of food production, area, yield, and yield components, by region and period.
Data on food crop production and area harvested are taken from FAOSTAT data, revised 2003
(http://apps.fao.org/page/collections?subsetagriculture), on total cereals, total roots and tubers,
and total pulses. Asia consists of Developing Asia excluding the countries of the Near East in
Asia. Africa consists of Developing Africa excluding the countries of the Near East in Africa and
the countries of North-West Africa. The Middle EastNorth Africa consists of Near East in Africa,
Near East in Asia, and North-West Africa. Latin America includes Latin America and the
Caribbean. Crop production is aggregated for each region using area weights from 1981. Estimates
of production increases due to MVs are from (4). Growth rates of other inputs are taken as a
residual. Growth rates are compound and are computed by regressing log time series data on a
constant and log trend variable. The totals for All Developing Countries are derived by weighting
the regional gures by 1981 area shares.
Early Green
Late Green
Revolution
Revolution
1961 to 1980
1981 to 2000
Latin America
Production
Area
Yield
MV contributions to yield
Other input per hectare
3.083
1.473
1.587
0.463
1.124
1.631
-0.512
2.154
0.772
1.382
3.649
0.513
3.120
0.682
2.439
2.107
0.020
2.087
0.968
1.119
Asia
Production
Area
Yield
MV contributions to yield
Other input per hectare
2.529
0.953
1.561
0.173
1.389
2.121
0.607
1.505
0.783
0.722
Sub-Saharan Africa
Production
Area
Yield
MV contributions to yield
Other input per hectare
1.697
0.524
1.166
0.097
1.069
3.189
2.818
0.361
0.471
0.110
760
3.200
0.683
2.502
0.523
1.979
2.192
0.386
1.805
0.857
0.948
REVIEW
REVIEW
Crop yields
Developed countries
Developing countries
Cropped area
Developed countries
Developing countries
Crop production
Developed countries
Developing countries
Crop prices, all countries
Increase in imports by
developing countries
Percent of children malnourished,
developing countries
Calorie consumption per capita,
developing countries
With no MVs in
developing
countries (NGR)
With no IARC
programs
(NIARC)
2.4 to 4.8
19.5 to 23.5
1.4 to 2.5
8.1 to 8.9
2.8 to 4.9
2.8 to 4.9
1.6 to 1.9
1.6 to 1.9
4.4 to 6.9
15.9 to 18.6
35 to 66
27 to 30
1.0 to 1.7
6.5 to 7.3
18 to 21
6 to 9
6.1 to 7.9
2.0 to 2.2
13.3 to 14.4
4.5 to 5.0
761
762
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13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
REVIEW