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International
Peacebuilding:
ATheoretical
andQuantitative
Analysis
MICHAEL W. DOYLE Princeton University
NICHOLAS SAMBANIS The World Bank
Internationalpeacebuilding can improve the prospects that a civil war will be resolved. Although
peacebuildingstrategiesmust be designedto addressparticularconflicts, broadparametersthatfit most
conflicts can be identified.Strategiesshould address the local roots of hostility,the local capacitiesfor
change, and the (net) specific degreeof internationalcommitmentavailableto assist sustainablepeace. One
can conceive of these as the threedimensions of a trianglewhose area is the "politicalspace"-or effective
capacity-for buildingpeace. We test thesepropositions with an extensivedata set of 124 post-World War
II civil wars and find that multilateral, United Nations peace operations make a positive difference.UN
peacekeeping is positively correlated with democratizationprocesses after civil war, and multilateral
enforcementoperationsare usually successful in ending the violence. Our studyprovides broad guidelines
for designing the appropriatepeacebuilding strategy,given the mix of hostility, local capacities, and
internationalcapacities.
PEACEBUILDINGSTRATEGIES
The political strategy of a peacebuilding mandate is the
concept of operations embodied in its design. Just as
civil wars are usually about failures of legitimate state
authority, sustainable civil peace relies on its successful
reconstruction. Peacebuilding is about what needs to
happen in between. Civil wars arise when individuals,
groups, and factions discover that a policeman, judge,
soldier, or politician no longer speaks and acts for
them. The local cop becomes the Croatian, Serb, or
1 For a discussion of the concept, see Cousens, Kumar, and Wermester 2000; Franck 1998; Goulding 1993. The UN's own views can
be found in Annan 1998 and Boutros-Ghali 1992.
2 For a discussion of comprehensive peace, see Boulding 1964 and
Kacowicz 1994, chap. 1. For a valuable collection of articles on
peacebuilding, see Cousens, Kumar, and Wermester 2000; Evans
1993; UN Department for Development Support and Management
Services and UN Industrial Development Organization 1995.
3No peace is perfect. Isaiah (11:6) prophesied that we shall know
peace when we see the lamb lie down with the lion. Comedian
Woody Allen (1976, 28) adds a valuable warning for our world: One
of the two might not get much sleep.
779
Although we can imagine purely cooperative solutions to domestic peace,5 the confusion, "noise," violence, and changing identification that characterize the
onslaught and conduct of civil war do not seem to be
promising circumstances for rational cooperation
among factions. Instead, the establishment of civil
peace seems to require addressing directly both the
defensive and aggressive incentives that motivate faction leaders (and sometimes their followers). Defensive incentives arise in the domestic security dilemma.
As anarchy emerges (due to the collapse of central
authority), each group/faction seeks to arm itself for
protection; as in interstate anarchy, however, each
defensive armament constitutes a threat to other factions (Posen 1993). Offensive incentives arise because
factions and their leaders want to impose their ideology
or culture, reap the spoils of state power, seize the
property of rivals, exploit public resources for private
gain, or all of the above. Peace thus requires the
elimination, management, or control of "spoilers"
(Stedman 1997) or war entrepreneurs (DeFigueiredo
and Weingast 1999).
Conquest by one faction can solve the problem (but
even in this case political and social reconstruction can
be vital for longer term legitimacy and stability). Peace
through agreement can employ the separation of populations and territorial partition to address war-prone
incentives (Kaufmann 1996). Civil wars can be turned
into international conflicts, as between Eritrea and
Ethiopia, or stable and relatively secure international
or intercommunal balances of power, as in Cyprus or
Somalia (Herbst 1996/97). To each spoiler, his or her
separate pile of spoils. But in many civil wars the
contest is over who or what ideology controls a single
polity. Moreover, in some ethnic wars the costs of
"cleansing" will seem too high, or a common basis for
overarching civic citizenship exists or can be created.
Combatants in these circumstances still have continuing disputes over material interests, who or what rules,
and safety. Each has experienced devastating destruction (although in varying degrees), and both leaders
and followers are likely to harbor deep resentment for
losses sustained, particularly to family and friends.
They also experience the costs of war and may come to
a "hurting stalemate," in which no faction sees that it
can win and each perceives the high costs of continuing
strife (Zartman 1985). In these latter circumstances,
sustainable peace needs state authority as a starting
point to overcome security concerns. Hobbes's Levia-
780
December 2000
A PEACEBUILDING TRIANGLE
International peacebuilding strategies-concepts of
operations-should be "strategic"in the ordinary sense
of that term, matching means to ends. Although the
strategy must be designed to address a particular
situation, broad parameters that fit most conflicts can
be identified. All strategies should address the local
sources of hostility, the local capacities for change, and
the (net) specific degree of international commitment
available to assist change. One can conceive of these as
the three dimensions of a triangle whose area is the
"political space," or effective capacity, for building
peace. This suggests that the dimensions substitute for
one another, that is, more of one substitutes for less of
another; less extreme hostilities substitute for weak
local capacity or minor international commitment.
International commitment (or lack thereof) interacts
with local capacities and factional hostility to shape the
triangular space; few peacebuilding plans work unless
regional neighbors and other significant international
actors desist from supporting war and begin supporting
peace.9 The end of Cold War competition was an
important precondition for the bloom of peacebuilding
operations in the early 1990s. Beyond that minimum,
international peacebuilding, from monitoring to enforcement, also makes a difference. We divide international peacebuilding into four types of mandated operations.
First, a monitoring or observermission is an interim
arrangement used in violent conflicts with the consent
of the host government. In these conflicts, there is no
formal determination of aggression. The purpose is to
monitor a truce and help negotiate a peace through the
presence of military and civilian observers.
8
West for the royalist forces. Lacking external support, each faction
found negotiations for peace more attractive.
781
December 2000
Research
Design
We will argue that the probability of successful peacebuilding is a function of a country's capacities, the
available international assistance, and the depth of
war-related hostility. The relations among these are
complicated. The availability and prospect of international assistance and extensive local capacities, for
example, can both raise the gains from victory (spoils of
war and rebuilding assistance) and reduce the costs of
fighting (as the assistance serves to sustain the fighting). So, too, deep war-related hostilities can have dual
effects. We will argue more specifically that (1) the
decision to support peacebuilding (PB) is enhanced by
both local and international capacities for peace; (2)
net local capacities (NLC) are given by the difference
between local capacities (LC) or developmental potential minus war-generated hostility (H); and (3) international capacities (IC) can substitute for deficiencies
in local capacities to compensate for the depth of
hostility. Thus, we theorize that the PB process is
captured by: PB = IC X NLC. That relationship is
10We have observed peace operations in El Salvador, Cambodia,
Eastern Slavonia (Croatia), Brcko (Bosnia), and Cyprus, and it is our
opinion that establishing a unified army or multiethnic police force,
although difficult, is easy compared to agreeing on an elementary
school curriculum.
782
FIGURE 1.
The Peacebuilding
Triangle
InternationalCapacities: Max IC = 1
Local Capacity
max LC= 1
Hostility
H =Oc
max H = 1; LC = 0
The Data
To test our hypotheses, we constructed a new crosssectional data set of all civil wars since 1944. We focus
on those that ended by 1997, so that we can measure
peacebuilding outcomes at least two years after the end
of the conflict. A few cases of ongoing wars are
included if a peace operation has been initiated, since
our interest is in the effectiveness of such operations in
ending war and restoring peace.14Appendix A provides
further discussion of case selection.
We define a civil war as an armed conflict that meets
all the following conditions: causes more than 1,000
deaths overall and in at least a single year; challenges
the sovereignty of an internationally recognized state;
occurs within the recognized boundary of that state;
involves the state as a principal combatant; includes
rebels with the ability to mount organized armed
opposition to the state; and has parties concerned with
the prospect of living together in the same political unit
after the end of the war. This definition allows us to
combine wars from several data sets.
TEN POLICY-RELEVANTHYPOTHESES
To achieve easily interpretable results with straightforward policy implications, we interpret our interactive
model of PB as a set of associations between PB
outcomes and our proxies for hostility, local capacities,
and international capacities. We use these proxies to
make ten policy-relevant hypotheses.
1. ThCprobability of peacebuilding (PB)
success should be lower in identitywars (i.e., ethnic and
religious wars).
HYPOTHESIS
783
December 2000
LenientPB
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Success
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Success
Success
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Success
Strict PB
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Success
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Success
Success
Failure
Failure
Failure
Success
Failure
Success
Note:Asterisksdenote cases thatmay not have caused 1,000 deaths foreveryyearof the warbuthave produced1,000 deaths in at least one yearduring
the war. Intotal, there are 71 failuresand 53 successes of lenientpeacebuildingand 81 failuresand 43 successes of strictpeacebuilding.The sources
for this table are listed in AppendixA.
784
HYPOTHESIS 2.
HYPOTHESIS 3.
HYPOTHESIS 4.
HYPOTHESIS6.
HYPOTHESIS7. A
HYPOTHESIS 8.
HYPOTHESIS 9.
785
HYPOTHESIS 10.
Success
(PBS2S3)
22
786
December 2000
development capacity.25We find that war-related hostility (LOGDEAD) substantially reduces the likelihood
of PB success and that greater international capacities
increase the probability of PB success. Notice that
by signing a treaty and inviting a UN peace operation
the parties are several times more likely to achieve
peace (see the odds ratios for those two variables). We
also find that higher levels of Net CurrentTransfersper
Capita (TRNSFCAP, which includes unilateral transfers, food aid, and so on) substantially increase the
probability of PB success, as do higher levels of Economic Development (DEVELOP), whereas that probability is reduced significantly if the country is heavily
Resource Dependent (EXP), which suggests a low level
of economic development and an undiversified economy. Wars with an ethnic or religious overtone are less
likely to be resolved, as are wars with a large number of
factions (more on the nonmonotonic effect of factions
later). Finally, these relationships become stronger
when our definition of peace is stricter (compare
models A and B to C and D). For strict PB, local
capacities are more significant, and longer wars support the PB process (model D). Our control variable
suggests that strict PB has become less likely over time
(since the coefficient of decade is negative).
Lenient Peacebuilding
Success
(PBS2L)
26
of
Policy Hypotheses
Tests
TABLE 2.
War
Success
December 2000
ModelA
Model B
Model C
Model D
Strict PB,
Strict PB,
Strict PB,
Strict PB,
Model E
Model F
Independent
2-Year Period, 5-Year Period, 2-Year Period, 5-Year Period, LenientPB, LenientPB,
Low Dem.
Low Dem. ModerateDem. ModerateDem. 2-Year Period 5-Year Period
Variables
9.62**
7.24**
7.65**
5.40**
5.48**
10.31**
Constant
(2.42)
(2.46)
(1.91)
(2.27)
(1.72)
(1.81)
- 1.94**
- 1.65**
- 1.77**
-2.19**
-2.14**
WARTYPE
-2.08**
(identity-basedwar?
(.661)
(.704)
(.609)
(.706)
(.471)
(.48)
.111
.116
.191
i.e., ethnic/religious)
.124
.143
.169
LOGDEAD
(naturallog of
deaths and
displacements)
WARDUR#
(durationof the war
in months)
FACTNUM
(numberof major
factions)
- .534**
- .437**
- .465**
- .478**
-.337**
- .263*
(.147)
.585
(.149)
.645
(.146)
.627
(.167)
.619
(.122)
.713
(.129)
.768
.009*
(.005)
1.009
.009*
(.005)
1.009
.012**
(.0056)
1.01
.014**
(.006)
1.01
.0017
(.003)
1.00
.0027
(.003)
1.00
-1.76**
(.685)
.171
-1.88**
(.673)
.151
-1.36
(.739)
.254
-.982
(.576)
.374
-1.10*
(.577)
.331
-1.18
(.649)
.304
FACTNUM2
(square of number
of factions)
.114**
(.056)
1.121
.122*
(.055)
1.13
.0709
(.0579)
1.07
.077
(.067)
1.08
.048
(.053)
1.049
.058
(.054)
1.06
TRNSFCAP
(net currentaccount
transfers per capita,
currentUS$)
.0038*
(.0015)
1.003
.0038*
(.0015)
1.003
.0029*
(.0012)
1.00
.0028*
(.0014)
1.00
.003
(.002)
1.003
.004*
(.002)
1.004
UNMANDATE
(type of UN
operation, by
mandate type)
.706**
(.271)
2.027
.684*
(.282)
1.98
.694**
(.261)
2.00
.742*
(.313)
2.10
.364
(.211)
1.43
.342
(.211)
1.41
TREATY
(partiessigned
treatyto end the
war)
2.08**
(.763)
8.017
1.75*
(.804)
5.76
1.52*
(.783)
4.58
1.60
(.947)
4.97
1.70*
(.710)
5.48
1.32
(.749)
3.76
DEVELOP#
(prewarper-capita
electricity
consumption)
.00057*
(.00036)
1.00
.0006
(.0004)
1.00
.0008**
(.0003)
1.00
.0009**
(.0003)
1.00
.00026
(.0002)
1.00
.0002
(.0002)
1.00
EXP#
(primaryresource
exports as %GDP)
DECADE
(0-6: decade war
started)
- 5.3*
(2.98)
.0048
- 5.85*
(3.33)
.0028
- 5.68*
(3.50)
.0033
- 7.129*
(4.34)
.0008
-.349*
(.174)
.705
-.289
(.166)
.748
-.222
(.186)
.800
-.167
(.206)
.845
COLDWAR
(0 = war started
after 1989;
-5.26*
(2.91)
.005
- 5.38*
(3.07)
.004
1.56**
.995
(.582)
(.553)
4.76
2.70
1 = otherwise)
Observations
l og-likelihood
Pseudo-R2
Correctlyclassified
122
-45.236
0.4286
85.25%
117
- 45.357
0.4062
82.91 %
122
- 45.312
0.3947
86.07%
117
-40.993
0.4187
88.03%
122
- 57.879
0.3069
80.33%
117
- 57.603
0.2833
79.49%
Note: Reportedare coefficients,robustcoefficientstandarderrors,and odds ratiosin that order.*p = .05, **p = .01; two-tailedtests; #
test used for these variablessince we have predicteddirection.
788
one-tailed
l
|
34
789
December 2000
(dead/displaced
(Two-Year Period)
Model A6 ModelA7 ModelA8
.150**
.150**
.175**
(-3.03)
(-3.15)
(-2.86)
.628**
.631**
.641**
(-3.57)
(-3.73)
(-3.54)
(-1.93)
per capita)
WARDUR
(durationin
months)
1.008
(1.68)
FACTNUM
(numberof
factions)
.177*
(-2.49)
FACTNUM2
(square of
FACTNUM)
EH (ethnic
heterogeneity)
TRNSFCAP
(net current
transfers)
UNMANDATE
(type of UN ops.)
1.115*
(1.89)
1.00
(1.23)
1.009
(1.71)
.137**
.171*
(-2.487)
(-3.13)
1.008
(1.57)
.209*
(-2.41)
1.00
(1.48)
1.00
(1.46)
1.00
(1.48)
1.00
(1.13)
.319
(-1.83)
.338
(-1.72)
.351
(-1.69)
.284
(-1.79)
1.145*
(2.48)
1.12*
(1.982)
1.10
(1.84)
1.06
(1.22)
1.05
(1.06)
1.05
(1.03)
1.06
(0.94)
1.00**
(3.09)
1.003*
(2.33)
1.00*
(2.41)
1.00*
(2.24)
1.003*
(2.25)
1.003
(1.79)
1.004**
(2.58)
1.005
(0.79)
1.003*
(2.29)
2.048**
1.72*
2.12**
(2.68)
(2.21)
(2.55)
3.82*
UNINV
(any UN action?)
(2.13)
1.91
UNOP2
(UN observer
mission)
(0.94)
2.148
UNOP5
(0.71)
(UN enforcement)
1.287
UNOP3
(0.188)
(traditionalPKO)
22.99**
UNOP4
(2.87)
(multidimensional
PKO)
TREATY
(treatysigned)
8.09**
(2.75)
5.22*
(2.18)
(militaryvictory)
1.00*
DEVELOP
1.00
(electricitycons.)
(1.64)
(2.16)
EXP
.0037*
.087
(primaryresources) (-2.01)
(-0.74)
.720*
DECADE
.701*
(decade war
(-2.03)
(-1.99)
started)
Log-likelihood
Pseudo-R2
8.94**
(2.91)
14.17**
(3.48)
14.74**
(3.53)
14.45**
(3.57)
1.00
(1.87)
.003
(-1.93)
.677*
(-2.07)
1.00
(1.57)
.001*
(-2.36)
.75
(-1.69)
1.00
(1.55)
.001*
(-2.30)
.750
(-1.68)
1.00
(1.58)
.000*
(-2.34)
.749
(-1.69)
8.367**
(2.58)
2.09
MILOUT
Observations
12.42*
(2.29)
(0.65)
1.00
(1.82)
.006
(-1.65)
.708*
(-1.93)
1.00
(1.84)
.002*
(-1.96)
.741
(-1.77)
122
122
122
122
122
122
122
122
- 44.994
0.4317
- 51 .504
0.3495
- 44.900
0.4329
- 46.473
0.4130
- 48.051
0.3931
- 48.324
0.3896
- 48.424
0.3884
- 45.648
0.4234
Note: Reportedare odds ratios and z-values (based on robust logistic regressionwith clustered same-countryobservations).*p = .05, **p = .01;
two-tailedtests.
790
TABLE 4. Logistic Models of Peacebuilding Success Two Years after the War, Using Indices of
Hostility, Local Capacities, and International Capacities
Strict PB,
LenientPB,
Strict PB,
LenientPB,
2 years
2 years
5 years
5 years
IndependentVariables
1.79**
Constant
1.21**
1.65**
1.32*
(.590)
(.572)
(.624)
(.547)
-6.76**
Hostility(H)index
-7.32**
-6.59**
-7.331**
(1.59)
(1.749)
(1.53)
(1.78)
.0006
.0013
.0006
.001
3.68**
(1.359)
39.865
2.44*
(1.21)
11.580
3.73**
(1.44)
42.019
2.567*
1.289)
13.03
Internationalcapacity (IC)index
5.73**
(2.151)
308.696
4.42*
(1.94)
83.507
5.40**
(2.17)
222.475
4.203**
(1.97)
66.95
Observations
Log-likelihood
Pseudo-RF2
Correctlyclassified
Proportionatereductionin error
119
-63.626
0.1765
73.95%
24.88%
119
-71.096
0.1280
66.39%
21.36%
114
-62.223
0.1644
73.68%
25.41%
114
-68.739
0.1231
67.54%
25.72%
Note: Reported are coefficients (robust coefficient standard errors) and odds ratios in that order. *p = .05, **p = .01; two-tailed tests. The possible range
for the indices is from 0 to 1. Variables are entered in the indices linearly, independently, and without weights. Our results are robust to several different
constructions of all indices. We include treaty in the IC index because it is highly correlated with UN operations, and in many cases treaties were signed
as a result of external involvement. The large difference in the odds ratios of the indices is due to the differences in the actual ranges of each index. Scaling
each index by its variance and reestimating the model would adjust the odds ratios. For example, with the scaled indices as regressors, the two-year strict
peacebuilding model produces odds ratios for the hostility, local capacities, and international capacities indices of .8753, 1.087, and 1.095, respectively.
Notice that UN Mandate (UNMANDATE) is positively and significantly correlated with strict and lenient
PB (Table 2), but the coefficient drops by about half in
the lenient version (models E and F). What does this
suggest? It is not possible to identify the influence of
specific operation types unless we unpack it into its
components. We did this and focused specifically on
ObserverMissions in model A5, enforcement in model
A6, traditional peacekeeping in model A7, and multidimensional PKOs in model A8 of Table 3.
Diplomatic efforts, UN Mediation (UNOP1), alone is
an insufficient strategy. The coefficient is not significant
and is negative (not presented). But an observer mission (UNOP2) sent to monitor a truce or treaty does
make a positive, although not large or significant,
difference. These operations offer additional transparency but no commitment of resources (military and
economic) to influence the incentives of the parties to
resolve a violent conflict.
Model A6 replaces the previous UN variables with a
dummy variable for UN Enforcement (UNOP5). It is
positively associated with strict PB success but is not
significant (the same is true for the five-year version of
the PB variable). Thus, the international community
cannot count on enforcement alone to build lasting
peace,35 but it appears to have a positive role in ending
violent conflict.
Models A7 and A8 reveal perhaps the most interesting results with respect to UN operations. Traditional
If enforcement is followed by more diversified missions, however,
the results may be different. We only have four cases of enforcement
in our data, so these results should be interpreted with caution.
35
Success
791
FIGURE 2.
(1)
4
0
Success
High Hostility
.6-
December 2000
No UN/Treaty
4-
.5
.
L2
'
W~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.
0
CU
o
A.
2000
4000
6000
Electricity consumption per capita
o Low LC
A High
LC
.08 -
.04
A Identity
War
.8 -
.6-
8
.060U)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2000
4000
6000
Electricity consumption per capita
~~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
CU
(6
.41
5
Number of Factions
C.
10
10
Log of Deaths/Displacements
15
Note: Low and high hostility are defined by the proxy variables used in the regression models. "High hostility" implies that we have set the variable log
of deaths and displacements (LOGDEAD)at its 75th percentile (13.83109) and "low hostility" implies setting the variable at the 25th percentile (10.12663).
PKO stands for peacekeeping operation, either traditional or multidimensional (for no UN PKO and no treaty, N = 86; for presence of both, N - 15).
"Low local capacities" implies that we have set electricity consumption per capita at the 25th percentile (48 kwh) and primary commodity exports as
percentage of GDP at the 75th percentile (.1414055). "High local capacities" are defined in exactly the opposite manner (75th percentile of electricity
consumption is 639.0475 kwh and 25th percentile of primary exports as a percentage of GDP is .0680658). Identity wars are ethnic and religious wars
(N = 79). Nonidentity wars are ideology-driven revolutions, loot-driven wars, or other nonethnic, nonreligious wars (N = 45). In Figure 2C, the number
of factions begins with 2 and includes all cases with the relevant numbers of factions.
792
793
December 2000
No PKO/Treaty
4?
:':
(NO
PKO/Treaty
Success
In
00.-
.5
.5
0_
_ _
_-_
_ .I.___
__
___
I_
6000
4000
2000
Electricity Consumption per capita
15
10
Log of Deaths and Displacements
U)
00
.6~
.5
0~
0
10
000
15
Cu
400
60
4000
6000
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a)
10
15
2000
Note:To constructeasy and difficultcases we use the parameterestimatesfrommodelA. Fora difficultcase, we set regressorswitha negativecoefficient
to the valueforthe 75th percentileof theirrangeand the regressorswithpositivecoefficientsat the value definingthe 25th percentileof theirrange.We
do the opposite foran easy case. Ifwe allowlocalcapacityvariablesto vary(e.g., electricityconsumptionpercapita),then we focus on hostilityvariables
to create hypotheticaldifficultcases (Figure3B, where hostilityis high)and easy cases (Figure3D, where hostilityis low).Ifwe allowthe hostilityvariable
to vary(e.g., the log of deaths and displacements),then we focus on capacityvariablesto create hypotheticaldifficultcases (Figure3A, wherecapacity
is low)and easy cases (Figure3C, where capacity is high).(See note to Figure2 for definitionsof high and low, capacity and hostility.)We keep the
following variables at their median: war duration, number of factions, and decade. This setup allows us to study the effect of international
capacities-peacekeeping operationsin conjunctionwitha treaty-on the probabilityof peacebuildingsuccess underdifferentcombinationsof levels of
hostilityand local capacity.
794
CONCLUSION
Our analysis identifies the critical determinants of
peacebuilding success. We find that higher order, or
democratic, peacebuilding is more successful after
nonidentity wars, after long and not very costly wars,
in countries with relatively high development levels,
and when UN peace operations and substantial
financial assistance are available. Lower order peacebuilding-an end to the violence-is more dependent on muscular third-party intervention and on low
hostility levels rather than on the breadth of local
capacities.
Peacemaking aimed at facilitating a peace treaty is
potentially life saving, since we find that treaties are
highly correlated with an end to the violence. Moreover, strategically designed peacekeeping and peace
enforcement do make a difference. International capacities can foster peace by substituting for limited
local capacities and alleviating factors that feed deep
hostility. Such intervention improves the prospects for
peace, but only if the peace operation is appropriately
designed. Enforcement operations can end the violence, but alone they cannot promote durable, democratic peace. By contrast, consent-based peacekeeping
with civilian functions (multidimensional PKOs), which
ordinarily do not have a mandate to end the violence if
parties do not cooperate, usually are not successful in
ending violence. With a peace treaty and the cooperation of the parties, however, PKOs can assist with the
institutional and political reform that helps secure
longer term peace. Truly intractable conflicts, such as
those in Bosnia, Kosovo, and East Timor, probably will
795
December 2000
other data sets into one if the parties and issues were the
same. (3) If less than two years intervened between the first
and second event, then we collapsed observations in other
data sets into a single war event. (4) If the war ended officially
through an agreement but fighting did not subside, then we
considered the war ongoing and coded a single event. Mason
and Fett (1996, n. 8) do the same.
124
0.60
123
58.43
124
0.36
0.48
124
UN operationby mandate:
No operation,
mediation,observer,
PKO,enforcement
Note: PKOsare
aggregated in a single
category (UNMANDATE)
0.83
1.23
Militaryvictory
(MILOUT)
InternationalCapacity
Proxies
Net transfers per capita
(TRNSFCAP)
Any UN involvement
(UNINV)
796
171.1
-112
1,272.5
Licklider1995; Wallensteen
and Sollenberg 1997; Walter
1997; secondary sources
APPENDIX B: (Continued)
Variable
UN operationby mandate:
No operation,
mediation,observer,
traditionalPKO,
multidimensionalPKO,
enforcement(UNOPS)
UN Mediation
(UNOP1)
Mean
S.D.
Min.
Max.
Source
124
0.85
1.45
124
0.07
0.26
124
0.07
0.26
124
0.06
0.25
MultidimensionalPKO
(UNOP4)
124
0.06
0.23
UN enforcement
(UNOP5)
124
0.03
0.18
10
5,387
UN Monitoring/Observer
Missions
(UNOP2)
TraditionalPKO
(UNOP3)
Cold Wardummy
(COLDWAR)
InstrumentalVariables
Europe(EURO)
Real per capita GDP
(GDP)
Third-partypartial
intervention(INTERVEN)
Non-UN peace operation
(NONUNOP)
124 540.8
851.1
124
0.12
0.08
0.01
120
6.017
5.68
20
124
3.45
1.43
124
0.78
0.41
124
0.08
123 697.5
0.27
1,632.8
0
130
1
10,000
124
124
62.9
0.61
48.5
1.31
0.51
WorldBank 2000b
Collierand Hoeffler2000;
WorldBank 2000b
797
798
December 2000
TABLE D-1.
Dependent Variable
and Selection
GURR2(Democracy Constant
Index)
Explanatory
Variables
MultidimensionalPKO(nontraditionalops.)
4.00*
(1.93)
-3.33
(2.35)
Developmentlevel (electricity
consumption)
Five-yearaverage prewardemocracy
index
MultidimensionalPKO(nontraditionalops.)
Selection Equation:
PBS2L (LenientPB)
UN PKOs (traditionaland multidim.)
Developmentlevel (electricity
consumption)
Warduration(measured in months)
Wartype (identitywar?)
Deaths and displacements (log of
dead/displaced)
Number of factions (major factions)
Observations
.0002
(.001)
.0176*
(.007)
.298*
(.125)
1.66*
(.734)
3.03
(1.79)
-3.09
(2.47)
.00032
(.0012)
.0147*
(.007)
.306*
(.125)
Warduration(in months)
Model 2
(alltypes of PKOs
together)
8.255**
(2.05)
1.07
(.658)
.0002
(.0001)
.626
(.404)
1.09
(.660)
.00019
(.0002)
.0004
(.002)
-.9212**
(.258)
.0007
(.0023)
-.977**
(.256)
-.175**
-.1 89**
(.065)
(.065)
-.531
-.487
(.372)
.012
(.038)
.0023*
(.001)
1.01*
(.448)
-3.41*
(1.76)
.794*
(.379)
(.323)
.0243
(.030)
.0017
(.001)
1.107**
(.419)
-3.64*
(1.72)
.887*
(.364)
Athrho:
-.457
(.476)
-.476 (.442)
Lnsigma:
1.63**(.101)
1.651**(.103)
Rho:
-.428 (.389)
-.443 (.355)
Sigma:
Lambda:
Censored/uncensored
Log-likelihood
Goodness of fit
5.12 (.521)
-2.19 (2.137)
5.21 (.540)
-2.31 (2.008)
51/69
-208.7298
Wald (5) = 37.69
x2
51/69
-210.8292
Prob >
(5) = 31.55
x2
Note: Reported are coefficients and robust standard errors (in parentheses). *p .05, **p .01 level; two-tailed tests. Model 1: Wald test of independent
equations (rho = 0); X2(1)= 0.92 and Prob >x2 = 0.3368. Model 2: Wald test of independent equations (rho = 0): X2(1)= 1.16 and Prob > x2 = 0.2816.
799
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