TODAY: programa das festas:

Deterministic trend
Stochastic trend
TSP: trend stationary process
DSP: difference stationary process
---ACF: autocorrelation function
PACF: partial autocorrelation function
---ADF test
KPSS test
Page 24 handouts
Stationary: everything ok
Problem: when series is non-stationary and specify what kind of trend we have in the series.
The non-stationarity is due to what?
1. Deterministic: we are able to find one and only one equation to represent it
2. Stochastic aka random: it can have different trends
When the trend is unique I can find an equation to define it.

Spurious regression: regression without sense.

Before estimating a regression I need to check stationarity and the kind of trend that I have in
my data.
Data file excel: TRENDS

deterministic trend

deterministic trend
I can regress one in terms of the other.

EVIEWS
In general when we have non stat, before looking for a regression I need to transform the
series in a stationary one. How to detrend the series? Depends from the type of trend we
have: stochastic or deterministic. Two different processes: TSP or DSP.

TSP: trend stationary process

Process to remove a trend when series has deterministic trend. How can I remove the trend
(detrend the series)? Regressing the series as a function of time (adjusting to the type of data:
linear, quadratic, etc.). Yt=f(t)

linear deterministic trend

*If quadratic trend: y1t c t t^2

intercept Slope

stationary series

DSP: difference stationary process

Excel file: sheet stochastic trend

Adj Close
800
600
400
Adj Close

200
1
573
1145
1717
2289
2861
3433
4005
4577
5149
5721
6293
6865

I can fit here a quadratic trend

but this is not the most correct process. I cannot find just one type of trend in this series
stochastic trend. Regressing by computing the differences between two consecutive
observations get a new series: stationary one.
Do I have DSP? Yes, if the trend is stochastic. How can I detrend the series (or remove the
trend)? By taking the difference! Yt: original series. I can compute the : Delta yt=yt-yt(-1)
named as 1st differences

Object>generate series> d_apple=d(adj_close)

mean constant and variance non constant. Take differences again to make the variance less
variable. I dont have a de-trended series yet because the variance is not constant yet.
1. Take the log to stabilize the variance and the differences of the log of the prices to
stabilize the mean: get a rate of change
Rt=ln(pt)-ln(pt-1)

The variance in thesecond case remaisn more constant than oin the 1st case.
Compute both: log-difference
transformations!
Diflog_apple=dlog(adj_close)

The variance became even more constant! (despite of the pikes)

If yt is DSP there is a stochastic trend and the series is non-stationary! We say that the
series has a unit root.

ADF (augmented Dickey-Fooler test) TEST

Null: the series has a unit root: non stationary
Reject the null to have a stationary series
Open variable>view>unit root test:

reject null

non stat because stochastic trend

KPSS
H0: no unit root stationary
H1:unit root: non stationary
.

see if todays price is related with

yesterdays one

non stat process

RW: is a non stationary process: yt=???yt-1+error_t, with ???=1