Revision dated April 25, 2005

Course 02431, Risk Management, Lecture plan

Lecturer: Frank H Hedlund (PhD. MSc. MBA)
Textbook: Royal Society (1992) Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management. Report of a Royal Society Study Group, The Royal Society, London
Course language: English. The may be an occasional slide in Danish. However, only material in English will enter the pool of exam relevant subject matter.
Evaluation:
1.

2 hour multiple choice exam (no aid)

Subject matter: all readings specified below, plus lectured presentations available on Campusnet.

2.

Evaluation of written assignments (by group), assignment length: max 15 pages.

Students will be requested to form groups of about 6 people. The groups will organise short student presentations and prepare a written assignment
Key dates:
8 Feb 2005 Groups formed and participants named
5 Apr 2005 Groups present list of one or more topics for their written assignment
19 April 2005 Groups present short abstract (half a page) on their selected topic for written assignment
13 May 2005 Written assignments handed in no later than 13:00
30 May 2005 Multiple choice exam

lectureplan05full.doc

Revision dated April 25, 2005

Date
1-Feb
2005

Contents

Introduction
Overview of course, terminology, some key issues in risk management
Readings:
1.

Textbook: Chapter 1: Introduction

Classroom activity: formation of groups

Student presentations: none

8-Feb
2005

Technical (objective) risks

Readings:
1.

Textbook: - Chapter 2: Estimating engineering risk

2.

Nasa (1992) Asteroid and comet impact hazards - The spaceguard survey report

3.

AIAA (2004) Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting the Earth from Asteroids (summary). American Institute of Aeronautics and
Astronautics (AIAA)

Student presentations (10 min):

lectureplan05full.doc

1.

based on 2) what is the hazard ?

2.

based on 2) what is the risk ?

3.

based on 3) what can be done about it ?

Revision dated April 25, 2005

15-Feb
2005

Effectiveness and efficiency

Poul
Thyregod

1.

Chapter 1: Confronting risk tradeoffs

2.

Chapter 7: Seeking safe drinking water

3.

Chapter 5: Saving gasoline and lives

4.

Tengs et al. (1995) 500 Life-saving Interventions and Their Cost-Effectiveness, Risk Analysis, Vol. 15, No. 3: 369-390

Readings: Graham JD, Wiener JB (1995) Risk vs. risk. Tradeoffs in protecting health and the environment. Harvard University Press

Student presentations (10 min):

22-Feb
2005

1.

based on 2) what is the tradeoff ?

2.

based on 3) what is the tradeoff (try also to identify an element of system dynamics) ?

3.

based on 4) what is the point ? / are there discrepancies in the tables ? / any caveats regarding use of cost-benefit analysis ?

Technical risk analysis and assessment HAZOP exercise: paper mill with chlorine rail car unloading
Readings:
1.

The HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) Method. AcuTech Process Risk Management.
Read from: http://www.acusafe.com/Hazard_Analysis/HAZOP_Technique.pdf

2.

Hessian RT, Rubin JN. Chapter 3. Checklist reviews. (in particular read pp30-33, pp34-47 are optional)
In: Greenberg HR, Cramer JJ Risk Assessment and Risk Management for the Chemical Process Industry, Wiley pp30-47

3.

Sherrod RM, Early WF (1991) Chapter 8 Hazard and operability studies.

In: Greenberg HR, Cramer JJ Risk Assessment and Risk Management for the Chemical Process Industry, Wiley pp101-126

4.

Case description available on Campusnet

Student presentations: none

lectureplan05full.doc

Revision dated April 25, 2005

1-Mar
2005

Cases which cannot be explained using standard rational models

Readings: Perrow C (1984) Normal accidents. Living with high-risk technologies. Reprint by Princeton University Press (1999)
1.

Chapter 6: Marine accidents

2.

Chapter 7: Earthbound systems: Dams, quakes, mines and lakes

Student presentations (10 min):

8-Mar
2005

1.

based on 1): intro of radar, what was the effect on ship collisions (identify an element of system dynamics) ?

2.

based on 1): ship collisions, what explanation does Perrow offer (as a sociologist) ?

3.

based on 2): the Grand Teton dam failure was this a technical failure? explain.

When redundancy backfires case example: US nuclear weapons command and control system
Readings:
1.

Sagan SD (1993) The limits of safety. Organizations, accidents and nuclear weapons. Princeton University Press
Chapter 6: Redundancy and reliability: The Thule 1968 bomber accident

2.

A false nuclear attack alarm in Russia 1983:

After the cold war. Shattered shield: 'I had a funny feeling in my gut' The Washington Post Wednesday, February 10, 1999; Page A19

3.

(Optional) Shattered Shield Russia's Myopic Missile Defense. The Washington Post. Wednesday, February 10, 1999; Page A1

Student presentations (10 min):

lectureplan05full.doc

1.

based on 1): Describe the "High Reliability School" theory

2.

based on 1): Describe the "Normal Accident School" theory

3.

based on 2): From an organisational point of view, identify factors that led to the incident

Revision dated April 25, 2005

15-Mar
2005

Risk perception
Readings:
1.

Textbook: - Chapter 5: Risk perception

Discussion on written assignments

1.

Presentation: How to write a good assignment

2.

Discussion on possible topics for assignments

Student presentations (10 min):

22-Mar
2005

lectureplan05full.doc

1.

What is the difference between acceptable and tolerable risk, which is claimed to be superior, and why

2.

Explain figure 2, p104

3.

Identify at least two approaches to risk communication

Easter

Revision dated April 25, 2005

29-Mar
2005

Risk perception cultural theory, examples

Readings:
1.

Douglas M, Wildavsky A (1982) Risk and culture. An essay on the selection of technological and environmental dangers. University of
California Press, Berkeley
Chapter 2: Risks are selected

2.

(Ibid) Conclusion: Risk is a collective construct. (in particular pp. 195-198)

3.

Schrling (2004) REACH The only planet guide to the secrets of chemicals policy in the EU. What happened and why? Greens/European Free
Alliance in the European Parliament. Brussels, April 2004
Read: European Chemicals Policy pp 49-57

4.

BW 2000605 3M's Big Cleanup. Why it decided to pull the plug on its best-selling stain repellant Business Week 3684:96-98 (June 5, 2000)

5.

Whelan EM (2000) Editorial: Companies That Would Rather Switch Than Fight : 3M's Retreat from Scotchgard . American Council on Science
and Health

Student presentations (10 min):

5-Apr
2005
Guest
lecturer

1.

based on 1) Describe the term "Pollution beliefs", characteristics, implications

2.

based on 2) Explain the resilience-anticipation dimension, identify key arguments for resilience

3.

based on 3) What is the problem (hazard) ?

Risk management
Readings:
1.

Textbook: - Chapter 6: Risk management

8:00-9:00 - Guest lecturer: Bente Villumsen from COWI:

Drinking water, chemical pollutants, threshold limit values, technical options for purification and politics.
Student presentations (10 min):

lectureplan05full.doc

1.

Describe the "liability - blame" dimension of risk management, identify pros and cons of both views

2.

Describe the "quantitative - qualitative" dimension of risk management, identify pros and cons of both views

3.

Describe the "cost of risk reduction" dimension of risk management, identify pros and cons of both views

Revision dated April 25, 2005

10

12-Apr
2005

Risk management system dynamics

Readings:
1.

Wilde GJS (1994) Target risk. PDE Publications. Chapter 4: The theory of risk homeostasis.
Read from http://pavlov.psyc.queensu.ca/target/

2.

Assum et al. (1999) Risk compensation: the case of road lighting. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 31(5):545-553

3.

Klen (1997) Personal protectors and working behaviour of loggers. Safety Science 25(1-3):89-103

4.

Farmer et a. (1997) Fatal crashes of passenger vehicles before and after adding antilock braking systems. Accident Analysis and Prevention 29
(6):745-757

5.

Study backs systems to aid auto stability. New York Times. Published: October 28, 2004

Student presentations (5-10 min):

11

19-Apr
2005

1.

based on 1) What is "risk homeostasis" ?

2.

based on 2) Did road lighting increase road safety? Identify pro and con.

3.

based on 3) Did personal protective equipment (PPE) improve occupational safety? Identify pro and con.

4.

based on 5) and 6) What can be done to increase road safety ? Discuss.

Risk management accountability

Readings:
1.

Feature in New York Times 2003: When workers die (awarded The Pulitzer Prize for journalism)
When workers die (1). A trench caves in; a young worker is dead. Is it a crime? New York Times. Published: December 21, 2003

2.

Feature in New York Times 2003: When workers die (awarded The Pulitzer Prize for journalism)
When workers die (3). California leads in making employer pay for job deaths. New York Times. Published: December 23, 2003

3.

Feature in New York Times 2004: Death on the tracks (awarded The Pulitzer Prize for journalism)
Amtrak pays millions for others' fatal errors. New York Times. Published: October 15, 2004

Student presentations

lectureplan05full.doc

1.

based on 1) What is the claim of regulatory failure?, explain.

2.

based on 2) Relate case story to the "accountability" dimension in risk management

3.

based on 3) Relate case story to the "accountability" dimension in risk management and to organisational behaviour

Revision dated April 25, 2005

12

26-Apr
2005

Risk management anticipation versus resilience

8:10 Overview of course contents - questions from students
9:00 - 9:45
Guest lecturer: Risk manager, Cand. jur. Jens Vinther Nielsen, Skanska
Risk management examples from the construction industry
10:00 - 11:30
Guest lecturer: Mr. Claus Rose Andresen, Fire chief, emergency services, Kolding (county in Jylland)
Emergency response to the pyrotechnics disaster in Kolding, November 2004
Readings: none
Student presentations: none

13

3-May
2005

Exam briefing and guest lecture

Briefing on multiple choice exam, examples of types of questions
Guest lecturer: Risk consultant, Cand. jur. Anders Markvardt, March consulting. (CANCELLED)
Some comments on the issue of the "failure to warn" obligation in risk management - examples from stock emissions abroad.
10:00 - 11:30
Guest lecturer: Dr. Jrgen Peder Steffensen (glaciologist), The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen
Global warming: Uncertainty of nature - nature of uncertainty - scale and magnitude of hazard - what is the risk
Evaluation

Work on written assignment

Readings: none
Student presentations: none

10-May
2005

lectureplan05full.doc

no lecture

Revision dated April 25, 2005

lectureplan05full.doc