HazardIden fica onandRiskAssessment

Workbook

EmergencyManagementOntario
2012

TableofContents

Sec on

PageNumber

Introduc on

TheHIRAProcess

StepOne:HazardIden fica onWorksheet

StepTwo:RiskAssessmentFrequency

FrequencyWorksheet

RiskAssessmentConsequence

ConsequenceVariables

ConsequenceWorksheet

12

TotalConsequence

13

TotalConsequenceWorksheet

14

ChangingRisk

15

ChangingRiskWorksheet

16

StepThree:RiskAnalysis

17

RiskAnalysisWorksheet

18

Priori za onWorksheet

19

StepFour:MonitorandReview

20

NextSteps:VulnerableGroupsand
Mi ga onAc ons

21

VulnerableGroupsWorksheet

22

Poten alMi ga onAc onsWorksheet

23

Introduc on

WhyShouldIHaveaHIRA?

Oneofthecorechallengesfacedbyemer
gency managers is how to prevent, mi
gate, prepare, respond and recover from
dierent types of hazards. Several ques
onsmustbeaskedwhenfacedwiththis
challenge:

Whathazardsexistinornearmycommunity?
Howfrequentlydothesehazardsoccur?
Howmuchdamagecantheycause?
Whichhazardsposethegreatestthreat?

ThisHazardIden fica onandRiskAssessment(HIRA)workbookcanhelpguide

youinansweringtheseques ons.

AHIRAcan:

Helpyoutopreparefortheworstand/ormostlikelyhazards.
Save mebyisola nganyhazardswhichcannotaectyourcommunity.
Allows for the crea on of emergency plans, exercises and training based on
themostlikelyand/orhighestriskscenarios.
Helpsyourprogramtobecomeproac veratherthanjustreac ve.

WhatisaHIRA?

AHIRAisariskassessmenttoolthatcanbeusedtoassesswhichhazardspose
thegreatestriskintermsofhowlikelytheyaretooccurandhowgreattheirpo
ten alimpactmaybe.Itisnotintendedtobeusedasapredic ontooltodeter
minewhichhazardwillcausethenextemergency.
3

TheHIRAProcess
TherearefourstepstocreateandmaintainaHIRA:

1)HazardIden fica onInthisstepthehazardsthatcouldimpactyourcommu

nityareseparatedfromthosethatcannot.Thisrequiresareviewofallhazards
andtheircausestodeterminewhethertheymaybeathreattoyourcommunity.
Thismayrequiretheconsulta onofthescien ficcommunity,historicalrecords
andgovernmentagencies.

2) Risk Assessment In this step the level of risk for each hazard is examined.
Thismayinvolvespeakingwithhazardexperts,researchingpastoccurrencesand
possiblescenarios.Thelikelihoodofthehazardoccurringandthepoten alim
pactsofthehazardonpeople,property,theenvironment,businessandfinance
andcri calinfrastructureshouldbeexamined.

3) Risk Analysis The informa on collected in the risk assessment step will be
analyzedinthisstep.Thedesiredoutcomeoftheriskanalysisistherankingof
thehazards.Thishighlightsthehazardsthatshouldbeconsideredacurrentpri
orityforyouremergencymanagementprogram.

4)MonitorandReview ItisimportanttorememberthataHIRAisanongoing
processandhazardsandtheirassociatedrisksmustbemonitoredandreviewed.
4

StepOne:HazardIden fica onWorksheet

Thelistbelowisastar ngpointiniden fyinghazards.Checkallthatapply.

Table1.HazardIden fica onWorksheet
NaturalHazards
AgriculturalandFoodEmergency
FarmAnimalDisease
FoodEmergency
PlantDiseaseandPestInfesta on
DrinkingWaterEmergency
Drought/LowWater
Earthquake
Erosion
ExtremeTemperatures
HeatWave
ColdWave
Flood
RiverineFlood
Seiche
StormSurge
UrbanFlood
Fog
Forest/WildlandFire
FreezingRain
Geomagne cStorm
Hail
HumanHealthEmergency
Epidemic
Pandemic
Hurricane
LandSubsidence
Landslide
Lightning
NaturalSpaceObjectCrash
Snowstorm/Blizzard
Tornado
Windstorm

TechnologicalHazards

Building/StructuralCollapse

Cri calInfrastructureFailure

DamFailure

EnergyEmergency(Supply)

Explosion/Fire

HazardousMaterialsIncident/Spills

FixedSiteIncident

Transporta onIncident

HumanMadeSpaceObjectCrash

MineEmergency

NuclearFacilityEmergency

Oil/NaturalGasEmergency

RadiologicalEmergency

Transporta onEmergency

AirEmergency

MarineEmergency

RailEmergency

RoadEmergency

HumanCausedHazards

CivilDisorder

CyberA ack

Sabotage

SpecialEvent

Terrorism/CBRNE

WarandInterna onalEmergency
Other:
Other:
Other:
Other:
Other:
Other:
Other:

StepTwo:RiskAssessmentFrequency
Howlikelyisitthatyourcommunitycouldbeimpactedbythehazardsyouiden
fiedinthepreviousstep?

Thesourcesusedforyourhazardiden fica oncanalsobeusedforassessingthe

frequencyandmagnitude.Onceyouhavecollectedinforma ononthefrequency
ofeachofthehazards,theycanbegroupedintothecategoriesbelow:

Table2.Frequency
Frequency
1

Category
Rare

VeryUnlikely

Unlikely

Probable

Likely

AlmostCertain

PercentChance
Lessthana1%chanceofoc
currenceinanyyear.
Betweena12%chanceof
occurrenceinanyyear.

Betweena210%chanceof
occurrenceinanyyear.
Betweena1050%chanceof
occurrenceinanyyear.
Betweena50100%chance
ofoccurrenceinanyyear.
100%chanceofoccurrencein
anyyear.

Descrip on
Hazardswithreturnperiods>100
years.
Occursevery50100yearsand
includeshazardsthathavenot
occurredbutarereportedtobe
morelikelytooccurinthenear
future.
Occursevery2050years
Occursevery520years
Occurs>5years.
Thehazardoccursannually.

Example:
The hazards for the imaginary community of Trillium were iden fied as being
floods, explosions and earthquakes. The Trillium historical record shows that
there have been floods every year. The Fire Chief said that explosions happen
every five years or so. A local professor said that there has not been a strong
earthquake in the history of the area, but one may be possible. The frequency
Hazard
Flood

Category
Almost
Certain

Explosion

Likely

Earthquake

Rare

Frequency
Notes
6
Floodingfromicebreakupinthespringoccursannually.
Urbanfloodingduringheavyrainalsooccursinsomeareas
duringthesummer.
5
Explosionsoccurwithinthecommunityatleastonceevery
fiveyears.
1

Trilliumisinastablegeologicareaandhasnotexperienced
anearthquakein>100years.
6

Table3.FrequencyWorksheet
Usetheworksheetbelowtorecordthefrequencyofthehazardsthatcouldaectyourcom
munity.Printaddi onalsheetsifneeded.
Hazard

Category

Frequency

Notes

RiskAssessmentConsequence
Consequenceisdividedintosixcategoriesbasedonrecommendedprac ces:

Social Impacts The direct nega ve consequences of a hazard on the physical

healthofpeople.

Property Damage The direct nega ve consequences of a hazard on buildings,

structuresandotherformsofproperty,suchascrops.

Cri cal Infrastructure Service Disrup ons/ImpactThenega veconsequences

ofahazardontheinterdependent,interac ve,interconnectednetworksofins
tu ons, services, systems and processes that meet vital human needs, sustain
theeconomy,protectpublicsafetyandsecurity,andmaintaincon nuityofand
confidenceingovernment.

EnvironmentalDamageThenega veconsequencesofahazardontheenviron
ment,includingthesoil,water,airand/orplantsandanimals.

Business/FinancialImpactThenega veeconomicconsequencesofahazard.

Psychosocial Impacts The nega ve response ofcommunity or asubset ofthe

communitytoahazardcausedbytheirpercep onofrisk. Thisincludeshuman
responses such as selfevacua on, mass panic and other poten al undesirable
responses.

Thetotalconsequencevaluecanbeobtainedbyaddingthevaluesobtainedfrom
eachofthesubvariables.Note:Thesocialimpactssubvariableisfurtherdivided
into the fatality rate, injury rate and evacua on rate. Since human impacts are
o en the most jarring result of an emergency and have an unquan fiable im
pactonthecommunity,socialimpactwasinten onallyweightedhigherthanthe
othersubvariables.
TheconsequencecategoriesinthisHIRAmethodologyareascaleofimpact,ra
therthanapriori za on.Thesamevalueintwocategoriesdoesnotmeanthat
theconsequencesofthetwoareequalandinterchangeable.
8

ConsequenceVariables

Table4.SocialImpacts,includingfatali es,injuriesandevacua on.

Fatali es
Consequence

Category

None

Minor

Moderate

Severe

Catastrophic

Descrip on
Notlikelytoresultinfatali eswithinthe
community.
Couldresultinfewerthanfivefatali eswith
inthecommunity.
Couldresultin510fatali eswithinthe
community.
Couldresultin1050fatali eswithinthe
community.
Couldresultin+50fatali eswithinthecom
munity.
Injuries

Consequence

Category

None

Minor

Moderate

Severe

Descrip on
Notlikelytoresultininjurieswithinthecom
munity.
Couldinjurefewerthan25peoplewithin
community.
Couldinjure25100peoplewithinthecom
munity.
Couldinjure+100peoplewithinthecommu
nity.
Evacua on

Consequence

Category

None

Minor

Moderate

Severe

Descrip on
Notlikelytoresultinanevacua onshelterin
placeorders,orpeoplestranded.
Couldresultinfewerthan100peoplebeing
evacuated,shelteredinplaceorstranded.
Couldresultin100500peoplebeingevacu
ated,shelteredinplaceorstranded.
Couldresultinmorethan500peoplebeing
evacuated,shelteredinplaceorstranded.

ConsequenceVariables
Table5.PropertyDamage
PropertyDamage
Consequence
0

Category
None

Minor

Moderate

Severe

Descrip on
Notlikelytoresultinpropertydamagewithinthe
community.
Couldcauseminorandmostlycosme cdamage.
Localizedseveredamage(afewbuildingsde
stroyed).
Widespreadseveredamage(manybuildingsde
stroyed).

Table6.Cri calInfrastructureFailure/ServiceImpact(CI)
Consequence

Cri calInfrastructureServiceImpact(CI)
Category
Descrip on

None

Minor

Notlikelytodisruptcri calinfrastructureser
vices.
Coulddisrupt1cri calinfrastructureservice.

Moderate

Coulddisrupt23cri calinfrastructureservices.

Severe

Coulddisruptmorethan3cri calinfrastructure
services.

Table7.EnvironmentalDamage
Consequence

EnvironmentalDamage
Category

Descrip on

None

Notlikelytoresultinenvironmentaldamage.

Minor

Moderate

Severe

Couldcauselocalizedandreversibledamage.
Quickcleanuppossible.
Couldcausemajorbutreversibledamage.Full
cleanupdicult.
Couldcausesevereandirreversibleenvironmen
taldamage.Fullcleanupnotpossible.

10

ConsequenceVariables
Table8.Business/FinancialImpact
Business/FinancialImpact
Category
Descrip on

Consequence
0

None

Notlikelytodisruptbusiness/financialac vi es.

1
2

Moderate
Severe

Couldresultinlossesforafewbusinesses.
Couldresultinlossesforanindustry.

Table9.PsychosocialImpact
PsychosocialImpact
Consequence

Category

None

Moderate

Severe

Descrip on
Notlikelytoresultinsignificantpsychosocialim
pacts.
Significantpsychosocialimpactsincludinglimited
panic,hoarding,selfevacua onandlongtermpsy
chosocialimpacts.
Widespreadpsychosocialimpacts,e.g.masspanic,
widespreadhoardingandselfevacua onandlong
termpsychologicalimpacts.

Example:
TocalculatetheconsequenceforfloodsinTrillium,theemergencymanagerused
historic accounts, insurance reports and scien fic informa on. This informa on
showed that flooding in Trillium is likely to result in an evacua on of approxi
mately 200 people and that severe property damage was to be expected. The
emergencymanageralsofoundthatduringmanypastfloods,roadswerenotac
cessible,severalbusinesseshadtobeclosedandtherewasisolatedenvironmen
taldamageduetoerosionalongthebankoftheriver.
Therefore,themagnitudeworksheetsec onforfloodswouldlooklike:
Social
Impacts

Property
Damage

Cri cal
Infrastructure
Impact

Environmental
Damage

Business/
Financial
Impact

Psycho
social
Impact

Subvariable
Total

11

Hazard

Fatali es

Injuries

Evacua on
Property
Damage

CIImpact
Environmental
Damage

Business/
Financial
Impact

Psycho
social
Impact

Total

Table10.ConsequenceWorksheet

12

TotalConsequence

Once the consequence values have been

addedup,theyareputintogroupsasshown
inthetablebelow.Thisgivesequalweightto
ConsequenceandFrequency.

Table11.TotalConsequence

SubvariableTotal Consequence

Descrip on

14

Minor

56

Slight

78

Moderate

910

Severe

1112

VerySevere

+13

Catastrophic

Example:
TheemergencymanagerofTrilliumcalculatedatotalof
9forfloods as shown on page 10.According to the ta
ble,thiswouldmeanthatfloodhasaconsequenceof4
whichisdescribedassevere.

13

Table12.TotalConsequenceWorksheet
Hazard

Sub Variable
Total

14

Consequence
Total

Description

ChangingRisk
Thefrequencyandconsequencecanbeinfluencedbyfactorssuchasmi ga on
ac onsandclimatechange.ChangingRiskhelpstoaccountforthesechanges.

ChangingRisk=ChangeinFrequency+ChangeinVulnerability
ChangeinFrequency
1.Isthenumberofnonemergencyoccurrencesofthehazardincreasing?

2.Ishumanac vity(e.g.popula ongrowth,changeofdrainagepa erns)likely

toleadtomoreinterac onwiththehazardoranincreaseinfrequency?

3.Isthereanenvironmentalreason(e.g.climatechange)whythefrequencyof
thishazardmayincrease?

4. Are human factors such as business, financial, interna onal prac ces more
likelytoincreasetherisk?

Iftheanswerisyestotwoormore,thenthechangeinfrequency=2
Iftheanswerisyestooneorfewerthenthechangeinfrequency=1

ChangeinVulnerability
1.Isalargenumberofthepopula onvulnerableoristhenumberofpeoplevul
nerabletothishazardincreasing?

2. Does cri cal infrastructure reliance or a juston me delivery system (e.g.

storesnotkeepingasupplyoffoodandrelyingonfrequentshipments)makethe
popula onmorevulnerable?

3. Are response agencies not aware of, prac ced and prepared to response to
thishazard?

4. Arenopreven on/mi ga onmeasurescurrentlyinuseforthishazard?

Iftheanswerisyestotwoormore,thenthechangeinvulnerability=2
Iftheanswerisyestooneorfewerthenthechangeinvulnerability=1
15

Changein
Frequency

Hazard

Total
Changein
Frequency

Changein TotalChangein
Vulnerability
Vulnerability

ChangingRisk
Total

Table13.ChangingRiskWorksheet

16

StepThree:RiskAnalysis

Once you have completed the Frequency, Magnitude and Changing Risk Work
Sheets,youcannowbegintopriori zeyourhazardsbyusingtheHIRAequa on:

Risk = Frequency * Consequence * Changing Risk

Example:
TheEmergencyManagerofTrilliumfoundafrequencyvalueof6,atotalconse
quencevalueof4andachangingriskvalueof4forfloods.Thesenumberswere
enteredintotheequa onandmul pliedtogether.Theresultwas:

FloodRisk=6*4*4=96

17

Table14.RiskAnalysisWorksheet
Hazard

Frequency

18

Magnitude

Changing Risk

Risk
Total

Table15.Priori za onWorksheet
Onceyouhavecalculatedtheriskforthehazards,youmaywishtogroupthem
basedontheirlevelofriskusingthetablebelow.Thisispar cularlyusefulifyou
haveseveralhazardswiththesameriskvalues.
LevelofRisk
<10

Descrip on
VeryLow

1120

Low

2130

Moderate

3140

High

4150

VeryHigh

>50

Extreme

Enteryourhazardsintotheworksheetbelowaccordingtotheirriskwhichyou
calculatedfromtheRiskAnalysisWorksheet.
Level of
Risk

Description

>50

Extreme

41 - 50

Very High

31 - 40

High

21 - 30

Moderate

11 - 20

Low

<10

Very Low

Hazards

19

StepFour:MonitorandReview

Hazards and risks may change over me so it is important to review your HIRA
annually.

DateofCurrentHIRA:____________________

DateofNextRevision:____________________

Signature:_______________________________

20

NextSteps:VulnerableGroupsandMi ga onAc ons

VulnerableGroups
Some people may be more vulnerable to certain haz
ardsthanothersduetomanydierentreasonssuchas
disabili es,economicstatusandhealthandarethere
foremorelikelytosuerfromthenega veimpactsof
a hazard. These groups may be more vulnerable to a
hazard due to an inability to selfevacuate or to take
the proper safety precau ons, suscep ble to a hazard
dueto their health, or a lack ofaccess to warningsor
otherreasonsthatincreasetheirvulnerabilitytoaspe
cifichazard.Notallpeoplewhoiden fythemselvesas
belongtooneofthesegroupsmaybeatanincreased
risk during the occurrence of a hazard, it will depend
ontheindividualsspecificsitua on.

It is important to consider vulnerable groups

once the hazards have been iden fied. As
sessing vulnerability is a key considera on in
planninganditcanassist in mi ga on ac on
decisionmaking.

Mi ga onAc ons
Mi ga onisdefinedasac onstakentoreducetheadverseimpactsofanemer
gency or disaster (EMO, 2011). A HIRA is only one part of a comprehensive
emergency management program. Once the risk for each of the hazards is
known,itisvitalthata emptsbemadetoreducetheirrisks,beginningwiththe
hazardsiden fiedashavingextremeandveryhighlevelsofrisk.

21

Table15.VulnerableGroupsWorksheet
Hazard

PossibleVulnerableGroups

22

PlanstoReduceVulnerability

Hazard

Ac on

Priority Es mated Es mat

Timeline edCost

Funding
Sources

Notes

Table16.Poten alMi ga onAc onsWorksheet

23

2012

24