Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
A Scenario Study
Project Presentation
Background:
Continue Series of Thought Leadership Publications
Delphi Study
2009
Towards Sustainable
Logistics
2010
Objective:
"It is impossible to
predict the future but also
dangerous not to try."
Henri Deterding, Founder of Royal Dutch Shell
1970
Today
Megaefficiency in Megacities
Customized Lifestyles
Paralyzing Protectionism
5
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Nobodys
back yard:
The rise of
Latin
America
Logistics
Implications
Unsustainable
economic development
Massively increased
global logistics market
World driven by
materialism
Manufacturers outsource
their logistics needs
Uncontrolled
exploitation of natural
resources
Destruction of natural
environments
resource extraction
Szenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse
leads to destruction
of ecosystems
Arctic routes have
become navigable
Former developing
countries have
turned into high-tech
locations
Center of economic
power has shifted to
Asia
Extreme events
have increased
noticeably
Megaefficiency in Megacities
Customized Lifestyles
Paralyzing Protectionism
5
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Fuente: Malkin y Spiegel, Is China Due for a Slowdown?, Reserva Federal de San Francisco.
Nation-states have
become second-tier
players
Logistics Implications
Manufacturing in robotized
plants
Huge unmanned
cargo planes
Majority of
population resides in
urban areas by 2050
Widening gap
between urban and
rural areas
New types of
transportation in
cities
Megacities are well
connected to the
other megacities
worldwide
Megaefficiency in Megacities
Customized Lifestyles
Paralyzing Protectionism
5
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Logistics Implications
Consumers empowered to
design their own products
Technological progress:
Home Fabbing
Local FabShops
Industrial Fabbing
Mobile 3D printing
Megaefficiency in Megacities
Customized Lifestyles
Paralyzing Protectionism
5
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Exportaciones RRNN
>10% PIB
Exportaciones RRNN
<10% PIB
Economic Diversification
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Singapore Diversification
1975 Exports
Papelera
Eq. Transporte
Maquinaria
Pulpa
Madera
Ropa
Maq. Elctrica
Manuf. Madera
Metales no ferrosos
Hierro y acero
Otros
2010 Exports
Electrnica
Reactores, calderas
Papelera
Aceite mineral, petrleo
Hierro y acero
Vehculos
Madera
Barcos
Plsticos
Art. pticos
Otros
Ireland-Diversification
1975 Exports
2009 Exports
Carne
Prod. Farmacuticos
Lacteos
Prod. Qumicos
Animales vivos
Maquinaria no elec
Maquinaria no elec
Textiles
Manuf. Miscellaneos
Transaccione especiales
Maquinaria elctrica
Otros
Otros
FUENTE: UNCTAD
Logistics Implications
Devaluation of logistics:
Few customized solutions
very commoditized business
Productivity decline
Switch to locally
available energy
sources
Resource extraction
has increased
Threat of small
conflicts connected
with resource
deposits
Clearing customs
can take several
weeks.
Protectionism is
common practice
International
express and
forwarding segment
shrinking
Megaefficiency in Megacities
Customized Lifestyles
Paralyzing Protectionism
5
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
(ndice 2000T1=100)
Emerging
countries are
taking wealth
from rich
countries
Commodities as %
Exports as of GDP
of Exp
Argentina
18%
66%
Brasil
11%
64%
Chile
34%
89%
Per
27%
86%
Colombia
18%
77%
Ecuador
36%
90%
Venezuela
30%
98%
Mxico
31%
24%
Amrica Latina
19%
56%
Fuels
What If ??
Logistics Implications
SUMMARY
In a volatile environment only one thing is certain: the certainty
of
continuous change.
This type of environment presents a challenge for a company strategy and
opportunities.
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Thank You
Project Presentation
Credits:
Foro Multilatinas America Economia
Delivering Tomorrow
Friends and Family