Vietnam: New Order for Su30MKs Carlyle A. Thayer February 10, 2010
[client name deleted] We’re consulting you concerning the new arms deal between Russia and Vietnam. Today Russian newswire service Interfax announced that Vietnam will purchase 12 more Su‐30MK2 long‐rage strike fighters, according its sources in the industry. This will be the third major arms contract between two countries after signing the deals of purchasing 8 Su‐30MK2 fighters and 6 Kilo‐class submarines. QUESTION: How can you provide an assessment of the reasons for Vietnamese rearmament and what Russian interests might be? ANSWER: In answer to your questions the primary reason Vietnam is purchasing the SuMK2 multirole fighters is to modernize its airforce. The second reason is to acquire a capability to protect sovereignty over its features in the South China Sea. There are other reasons but they are secondary, the Su‐27 has been replaced by the Su‐30 and Vietnam would like to understand the technology of the same jet fighter as China is manufacturing under license. Vietnam's arms purchases are linked to economic growth and the Vietnamese economy is recovering from the global financial crisis. Finally, Vietnam's weapons rely on the legacy of the former Soviet Union, and Vietnam would like to retain technological compatibility for maintenance and training purposes. Modern western jet aircraft are too expensive and would cause many technical problems integrating them in Vietnam's force structure. What is Russia's interest? Vietnam is now one of the major countries purchasing Russian military equipment. Russia thus has a material interest in weapons sales. Russia has also sold other military equipment and jets to Southeast Asia. Success in Vietnam ‐ with both the Sukhoi 30s and the Kilo‐class submarines would set a good example to regional states that Russia is a reliable and capable partner in defence equipment sales. There is also a political dimension, Russia has been relatively absent since the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia's withdrawal from Cam Ranh Bay. Arms sales to Vietnam offer the possibility of increasing Russian influence in Vietnam and possibly the region.