Population Projection model (females)

Table 1: Base population and Components of change

Base year population
(2010)

Fertility

Mortality
Survival ratios or proportion
surviving to next age group

Total births
2001

Age
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+

63,479
47,636
29,935
26,715
58,148
71,595
63,834
47,865
32,198
17,981
10,770
6,677
3,690
2,036
1,151
851
484,561

Total

Table 2 Projected Births

Age
2006

2011

5,439
22,613
28,060
16,509
9,235
1,277
371

ASFRs

Age

0.18016
0.31873
0.39059
0.27698
0.23434
0.05768
0.02987

Population

Births
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70+

0.98155
0.99974
0.99965
0.99941
0.99924
0.99705
0.98763
0.97570
0.96165
0.94630
0.90550
0.84712
0.77214
0.76099
0.68066
0.66090

TFR 7.4418

2016

2021

2026

Births: dependent on information in Table 5 so will contain zero cells until Table 5 is
completed. To calculate projected births to women aged 15-19 in the five years to 2006:
find the average number of women in the age group 15-19 during 2001-2006. Multiply
by the average ASFR.
15-19
27,899
40,829
57,472
130,398
204,098
20-24
77,268
68,646
91,504
120,925
249,844
25-29
141,324
124,010
113,475
141,404
177,352
30-34
104,088
120,825
108,699
101,321
120,881
35-39
70,182
97,227
111,044
101,034
94,943
40-44
11,616
17,283
23,685
26,955
24,586
45-49
3,733
5,921
8,699
11,836
13,438

Total
births

436,109

474,742

514,577

633,872

885,143

Table 4 Net migration: Projected Survivors

Age
Total

2010
70,000

2015
###

2020
70,000

2025
###

2030
70,000

5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+

945
2,523
5,310
12,127
15,157
15,776
9,647
2,327
1,534
1,268
898
817
470
267
204
-

945
2,523
5,310
12,127
15,157
15,776
9,647
2,327
1,534
1,268
898
817
470
267
204

945
2,523
5,310
12,127
15,157
15,776
9,647
2,327
1,534
1,268
898
817
470
267
204

945
2,523
5,310
12,127
15,157
15,776
9,647
2,327
1,534
1,268
898
817
470
267
204

945
2,523
5,310
12,127
15,157
15,776
9,647
2,327
1,534
1,268
898
817
470
267
204

Decide the total net migration for

the figure at the top of ech column
years or 50 000 every year. Here
persons aged five years and over
migrant children born in the interv
natural increase. Table 3 includes
population and to migrant women
distributed across the age groups
migration for the period by the pro
Finally the estimated migrants in e
by the survival ratio of migrants to
at the end of the interval.

Table 5: Base population and Population Projections

Age

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
(70+/)

63,479
47,636
29,935
26,715
58,148
71,595
63,834
47,865
32,198
17,981
10,770
6,677
3,690
2,036
1,151
851
2,002

208,811
64,408
50,143
35,227
38,822
73,133
86,485
71,929
48,356
32,003
17,549
10,021
5,972
3,278
1,653
1,527
3,180

227,309
209,702
66,908
55,423
47,327
53,864
88,004
94,030
71,498
47,294
30,246
15,764
8,554
5,014
2,498
2,306
4,803

246,382
228,195
212,152
72,179
67,508
62,345
68,973
95,513
92,751
69,192
44,092
26,520
12,989
6,979
3,680
3,379
7,058

303,501
247,263
230,638
217,337
84,251
82,466
77,349
76,944
94,177
89,304
63,921
38,249
21,294
10,354
5,017
4,869
9,886

423,811
304,367
249,700
235,812
229,298
99,159
97,221
85,116
76,320
90,653
82,133
55,047
30,350
16,674
7,314
6,738
14,052

Total

484,561

749,318

1,025,742

1,312,828

1,646,934

2,089,714

source: adapted from Don Rowland (2003) Demographic methods and concepts.Oxford: Oxford University Press

hange
Mortality

ival ratios or proportion

viving to next age group
Migrants
0.99987
0.99983
0.99971
0.99962
0.99853
0.99382
0.98785
0.98083
0.97315
0.95275
0.92356
0.88607
0.88050
0.84033
0.83045

Migration
Age
Structure of
Annual net
Net
migration,
Migration
females by
(proportion
age 2001
s)
1,200
3,204
6,743
15,401
19,270
20,152
12,397
3,012
2,001
1,689
1,234
1,170
677
403
312

0.01350
0.03605
0.07588
0.17331
0.21685
0.22677
0.13950
0.03389
0.02252
0.01901
0.01389
0.01317
0.00762
0.00453
0.00351

88,865

1.00000

Table 3 Projected Survivors

Age
2006

2011

5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+

63,462
47,619
29,917
26,695
57,976
70,709
62,283
46,029
30,469
16,282
9,123
5,156
2,808
1,386
1,323
471,239

208,757
64,385
50,113
35,201
38,707
72,229
84,384
69,171
45,760
28,979
14,866
7,738
4,545
2,231
2,102
729,165

2016

227,249
209,628
66,869
55,381
47,188
53,198
85,866
90,424
67,659
42,824
25,622
12,172
6,510
3,413
3,175
997,178

2021

2026

246,318
228,115
212,027
72,124
67,309
61,573
67,297
91,850
87,770
62,654
37,351
20,477
9,884
4,751
4,665
1,274,165

303,422
247,176
230,502
217,171
84,003
81,445
75,470
73,993
89,119
80,865
54,149
29,534
16,204
7,047
6,534
1,596,636

e.g age group 0-4 in 2001 yields surv

aged 70+ yields survivors aged 75+ in
obtained by multiplying the 2001 popu
corresponding survival ratio. And 201

the total net migration for each 5-year time, and type
ure at the top of ech column. E.g 250 000 every five
or 50 000 every year. Here net migration refers to that of
s aged five years and over at the end of th eperiod;
t children born in the interval are treatd here as part of
increase. Table 3 includes births both to the existing
tion and to migrant women. The total net migration is
uted across the age groups by multiplying the total net
on for the period by the proportion in each age group.
the estimated migrants in each age group are multiplied
survival ratio of migrants to obtain the numbers surviving
end of the interval.

d University Press

Derive the female population aged 0-4 in any year

from the total births for that year from Table 2. Eg.
In 2006=1395676. To get which are the female
births (rather than total births), assume a sex ratio
e.g 105and multiply the total births by the ratio
(100/205) to get only the female births. Multiply
this by the survival ratio for births.
Obtain the projected population aged 5-9 in 2006
by adding together the corresponding cells in
Table 2 and Table 4 and copy down formula.

e.g age group 0-4 in 2001 yields survivors aged 5-9 in 2006, while those
aged 70+ yields survivors aged 75+ in 2006. The figures for 2006 are
obtained by multiplying the 2001 population at each age by the
corresponding survival ratio. And 2011 is 2006 population * survival ratio