Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
February 2014
Farhan Beg
farhan.beg@geni.org
Research Associate
Contents:
1. Introduction
10
10
11
13
16
18
20
22
23
24
24
27
3.1.3. VSC Based Multi Terminal HVDC and its application in the Supergrid Deployment
28
3.1.4. VSC HVDC station Modelling
31
32
33
40
41
4. Conclusions
50
5. References
51
List of Figures
Figure 1: Creation of transmission highways from generation to load pockets in India.......7
Figure2: Existing and planned transmission networks expansion in the 12th five year plan(MW).8
Figure 3: Creation of energy corridors connecting the regional grids as well as the grids of the
member countries.....9
Figure 4: India Electricity generation from different sources... 12
Figure 5: All India Installed capacity (as on 30th November 2012).. 12
Figure 6: Power Supply and Shortage position during 2010-11....13
Figure 7: Electricity generation from different sources in Pakistan.,,...14
Figure 8: Location of the Sindh Valley in Southern Pakistan ,,15
Figure 9: Energy imbalances in Pakistan .,....15
Figure 10: Bhutan International and National Borders with transmission levels knowledge ,. 17
Figure 11: Bhutan Electricity Exports ,.17
Figure 12: Evolution of Electricity Generation by Fuel from 1971 to 2005 .19
Figure 13: Electricity Generation from different sources in the year 2006., 19
Figure 14: Variation in Electricity generation distribution from different sources in Sri Lanka from
1973 to 2003 ..,..21
Figure 15: Nepal Energy generation from different sources ,..22
Figure 16: Methodology of Supergrid deployment ..24
Figure 17: Increase in the deployed transmission voltage levels in India 25
Figure 18: Parallel connection of DC terminals ..,30
Figure 19: Modelling of VSC HVDC stations .32
Figure 20: Analysis and Definition of quantities and arrows in a network...34
Figure 21: Draft of DC multi terminal grid ..38
Figure 22: Indian subcontinent Draft grid..39
Figure 23: Risk percentage calculation for Risk Area= Policy..42
Figure 24: Risk percentage calculation for Risk Area= Political..44
Figure 25: Risk percentage calculation for Risk Area= Financial ...45
Figure 26: Risk percentage calculation for Risk Area= Infra-structural...... 46
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
List of Abbreviations
1. VSC: Voltage Source Converter
2. PLF: Plant Load Factor
3. WAPDA: Water and Power Development Authority
4. KESC: Karachi Electric Supply Company
5. IPP: Independent Power Producers
6. SPP: Small Power Producers
7. LCC: Line Commutated Converters
8. GIL: Gas Insulated Cables
9. CSC: Current Source Converter
10: IGBT: Insulated Gas Bipolar Transistor
11: PWM: Pulse Width Modulation
12: PCC: Point of Common connection
13: HVDC: High Voltage Direct Current
Abstract
The Indian subcontinent is facing a massive challenge with regards to energy security
in its member countries, the challenge of providing a reliable source of electricity to facilitate
development across various sectors of the economy and thereby achieve the developmental
targets it has set for itself. A highly precarious situation exists in the subcontinent that is
observed in the series of system failures leading to system collapses-blackouts most of the
times. To mitigate the issues related with energy security as well as to keep in check the
increasing supply demand gap, a possible solution is the deployment of an interconnected
electricity supergrid designed to carry huge quanta of power across the sub-continent as
well as providing the infrastructure for Renewable energy sources (RES) generation. Thus the
supergrid can not only provide energy security but also boost trading and thereby ease the
cross border tensions that impede growth in the subcontinent.
This paper assesses the need and conditions for a supergrid deployment and proposes
a meshed topology based on VSC HVDC converter technology for the supergrid modeling.
The second part of the paper evaluates, ranks and maps the key risk factors facing the
supergrid deployment in the sub-continent. The key risks are then categorized in a risk map
that provides a strong visual narrative for further strategic discussions to make the supergrid
deployment a reality.
Key Words: VSC HVDC, Supergrid, Renewable Energy Integration, HVDC Circuit
Breakers, Dynamic Energy Storage, Load Flow Analysis
1. Introduction:
Climate change activism as well as a limited access of primary conventional fuels is
setting the platform for a subtle shift to a sustainability centric, CO2 neutral energy system. In
this transformation, renewable energies as well as the formation of energy corridors for
transport of the clean energy will play an important role. A great potential of renewable
energy has been estimated in the Indian subcontinent. Large amounts of wind and solar
energy have been estimated in some parts of the subcontinent while as others have a high
potential for biomass and hydro. Procurement and hence integration into the grid of such a
vast potential requires the deployment of an integrated supergrid that spans across
international boundaries into neighbouring countries of the Indian subcontinent. Such an
integration of the huge quantum of energy into a grid that transcends borders is one of the
great challenges of this century. Moreover what sets this challenge apart is bringing the
measures of technical quality and power supply reliability as well as the maintenance of
stability in the same frame with economic and ecological aspects.
Dynamic energy storage will play a pivotal role in the meshed grid energy systems in
order to balance the time imbalances between supply based production and a requirement
based consumption. A huge energy potential has been estimated in areas not in immediate
proximity to future consumption or load centres and hence need high voltage corridors to
connect them to the already existing power focal points. Transport of electrical energy will
require the unbundling of electricity generation and distribution depending on the politically
motivated factors related to electricity deregulation. The established power corridors can
provide a reliable supply of electricity based on the transmission of huge amounts of
controlled conventional power over large distances in times of high demand and low supply
from local focal points which are actually the local energy centres. Advances in the technical,
political and regulatory underpinnings involving power intensive energy transport is
necessary to see a large interconnected South Asian energy market endowed with large
amounts of variable as well as conventional electricity providing reliable, sustainable and a
superior quality of electricity across the Indian subcontinent. Hence on a local scale, large
structural modifications have to be carried out for the imminent changes.
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
Transmission and thus making available this huge quantum of power at the super
nodes (high power buses) requires the development of high voltage energy corridors that
have the capability to transfer this bulk energy in a reliable and most efficient way. These
energy corridors are an interconnected network of extra high voltage transmission lines.
Economics of grid deployment in addition to efficient transmission have to be taken into
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
account while designing and deploying these corridors. Moreover social protocol in addition
to technical orientation has to be respected for specifying the technology used.
Figure2: Existing and planned transmission networks expansion in the 12th five year plan (MW)
Source: India Electricity Grid Interconnection Report
Figure 3: Creation of energy corridors connecting the regional grids as well as the grids of the
member countries.
[Farhan Beg 2014]
1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity
research. This assessment is quantitative based on the data obtained from various electricity
regulatory agencies and hence provides a working platform for the discussion on the
supergrid deployment.
1200
1000
Other Renewable
800
Nuclear
600
Hydroelectric
400
Conventional Thermal
200
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Coal
Diesel
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Non renewables
12%
2%
19%
57%
9%
1%
Ahmad, Gulfaraz, Peace and Prosperity Gas Pipelines, United Nation Development Program, 2003.
World Energy Outlook 2006, International Energy Agency, Paris, France
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
3
from neighbouring countries. The Pakistan grid can be directly connected to the northern and
western grids of the Indian subcontinent via HVDC links leading to a more dynamic and
extensive grid. Electric power can be easily transferred across the border via DC links and
thereby making the Pakistan national grid strong and resilient, providing a reliable power
supply to its populace. Moreover the supergrid can also provide the basic structure required
for the integration of huge amounts of renewable energy into the national grid.
For the purpose of this research, the Sindh Valley that is located in the South of
Pakistan and West of India has been identified as a Wind energy potential source. A potential
of around 150 GW of wind energy has been estimated in Pakistan out of which nearly 40 GW
is estimated in the Sindh valley. This untapped source of energy can be integrated into the
grid only if the grid is dynamic and resilient enough to deal with the issues of instability
because of variability of energy sources and unpredictability. Even though this research paper
does not encompass a power flow analysis/load flow analysis of the energy integration from
the Sindh-Valley into the supergrid, a draft model of the supergrid showing the connections
between the Sindh valley and Pakistan and India has been made. The research for the power
flow analysis is currently underway.
33%
Fossil Fuels
Nuclear Fuels
Hydro power
64%
2%
Renewable
Figure 10: Bhutan International and National Borders with transmission levels knowledge
Source:
Bhutan Energy Grid, www.geni.org
2.1.4
Indian subcontinent. It is located at the apex of the Bay of Bengal, bordered by India
and Burma (Myanmar) on its north, west and east, and separated from Nepal and Bhutan by
India's narrow Siliguri corridor. Together with the neighbouring Indian state of West Bengal,
it makes up the ethno-linguistic region of Bengal.
The total installed capacity was 4005 MW in the financial year 2000-01 which has
increased to 6685 MW in FY 2010-11 with an annual increasing rate of 6.62 percent.
Continuation of this rate indicates that the projected generation would be 4828 MW by 2015
which is far shy from the vision of 11500 MW generations by 2015. Although the
government has taken several initiatives for reducing the deficit of electricity, the crisis
persists. This is mainly due to the problems associated with high gas dependency, improper
privatization policy, lack of satisfactory and timely implementation of allocated money,
political reasons and overpopulation. Bangladesh depends heavily on the availability of gas
for its generation of electricity. The government of Bangladesh has failed to ensure a secure
supply of gas to its generating station thereby leading to low plant load factors (PLF) and
hence very low efficiency. On the other hand, failure to ensure a stable coal policy has also
proved detrimental in the generation sphere. Quick rental and peaking plants were taken on a
fast track basis to address the nagging power crisis. But mostly, second hand equipment and
machineries are used in such plants, which are less efficient and the tariff rises. The unstable
political sphere of the country has negatively affected the countrys generation industry
because of the failure to set up and implement a secure and a dynamic energy policy. The
country faces a significant challenge in revamping its grid network responsible for the
transmission of electricity. Therefore, such policy formulations must be done based on the
results of realistic and practical research regarding the power sector. A credible and realistic
demand forecast is necessary because of its strategic location, import of electricity from
Bhutan and India using high voltage energy corridors can mitigate the energy shortages
present in the country.
Figure 13: Electricity Generation from different sources in the year 2006
Source: www.engj.org
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
in
the
northern Indian
Ocean off
the
southern
coast
of
the Indian
subcontinent in South Asia. Popularly called as Ceylon until 1972, Sri Lanka has maritime
borders with India to the northwest and the Maldives to the southwest.
Electricity needs in Sri Lanka are met mostly by generating electricity using
petroleum based thermal sources and hydro based generation. Most of the hydro potential has
already been harnessed and thus Sri Lanka will need to use the petroleum based thermal
sources for generation until other generation capacity is also introduced. Sri Lanka has total
identified hydro power potential of 2 GW out of which nearly 1.5 GW has already been
harnessed. The government has shown a general interest in pursuing additional and cost
effective sources for the generation of electricity. This comes as a consequence to reduce the
widening supply-demand gap and reliance on hydro power. This output is dependent on the
water levels and sink to very low levels in times of drought. Diesel fired and fuel oil can
provide a fairly useful avenue as a possible short term solution while as coal based power
generation can be the most effective source of power generation in the future. In 2011, the
maximum recorded electricity demand in Sri Lanka was 2163.1MW. In order to achieve that
demand and to cater the electricity requirement in Sri Lanka, 139 Grid connected power
plants with total installed capacity of 3140MW were operating in 2011. Out of those power
plants, 23 were owned and operated by Ceylon Electricity Board including 16 hydro plants, 6
thermal plants and 1 wind power plant.
Figure 14: Variation in Electricity generation distribution from different sources in Sri Lanka
from 1973 to 2003
[Farhan Beg 2014] Data from the Ministry of Power, Sri Lanka
Petroleum
15%
Coal
Commercial Sources
70%
Modeling
Risk Assessment
HZ) with
Overhead lines, cables as well as Gas insulated lines (GIL) are now available as AC
transport conductors with a sophisticated technology as well as lower initial investment costs,
overhead lines provide a standard solution for high transmission voltages. Line conductor
monitoring, high temperature conductors, considerable improvement of towers using less
space and field strength distribution are some of the developments in overhead line
technology.
The main aim of the introduction of HVDC systems technology was to provide an
efficient and a flexible transmission system. Since the supergrid is actually an interconnection
between asynchronous grids of a number of countries, HVDC provides the best mode of
interconnection. Locally the HVDC converter stations can then be connected to the
synchronized AC grids. With the increase in the number and power flow between energy
corridors as well as an increasing need of the integration of renewable energy sources into the
grid the need for the presence of a transmission system that could provide the required
flexibility can be satisfied by the HVDC transmission system. The HVDC system provides
the platform to interconnect two AC power systems that are not synchronized as well as
transfer of electric power between two distant nodal points through overhead transmission or
submarine cables. HVDC systems are more cost effective than AC systems via overhead lines
as the costs of transformer stations are not considerable. Long distance HVDC system
become economical between 800 and 1200 kilometres provide the critical length. At
distances less than this the Ac overhead lines are more economical today. HVDC has definite
advantages with longer cable connections. For the supergrid deployment, the HVDC
transmission system provides superior working conditions, a better power flow control and a
definite platform for future additions on the supply side which can be from other
conventional generation plants or renewable energy parks. The HVDC systems in parallel
with the AC systems provide such a characteristic which can affect the controllability and
flexibility of the bulk power system.
The converter stations form the nodes of the working of an HVDC transmission system.
Currently two kinds of converter technologies, the Line Commutated Current Source
Converters (CSCs) and self-commutated voltage source converters (VSCs) are mostly used
in the HVDC transmission systems.
HVDC systems based on the principle of conventional CSCs require a substantially large
generation source with a very high level of short circuit ratio in order to operate reliably. In
other words there is a need for the transference of reactive power from the AC system at to
the inverter to accomplish the conversion process which is nearly 50 percent of the total
active power through the converter. Based on the CSC technology principle, power flow
direction can be reversed only by reversing the Direct Current DC voltage polarity. This
characteristic employs a switching technique in case the CSC system is used for building a
Multi Terminal Direct Current (MTDC) System.
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
In comparison, VSCs utilizing the (IGBT) Insulated Gate bipolar transistor valves as
well as pulse width modulation techniques can lead to the production of a near sinusoidal AC
voltage which is fully controllable with respect to magnitude and phase of the AC wave.
Unlike the CSC systems, VSCs have no reactive power demand and can exchange the
reactive power with the AC grid.
VSCs can rapidly control the active power exchange by controlling the phase angle of
the produced voltage as well as control the reactive power at each terminal by controlling the
magnitude of VSC voltage independent of the Direct Current power transmission. Due to this
property, VSCs can be installed anywhere in the AC grid irrespective of the short circuit
current capacity. Moreover to change the direction of the power flow in its DC link, VSC
does not need to reverse the voltage polarity. This power reversal is observed by changing the
direction of the current. Many attempts have already been made to conceptualise the
formation of the meshed grids using classic HVDC or CSC technology. However due to the
high amount of complexity involved the studies were thereby limited to a maximum of 3
nodes. Expanding the concept the VSC-HVDC provides the option for a multi terminal
system which is the basis for the deployment of a supergrid as the number of nodes and the
kind of grid topology utilized does not have any limit with regards to VSC-HVDC.
Constant research into upgrading the ratings and the frequency of VSC converters
has led to the use of a modular construction based on the use of multi-level technology. Submodules consisting of half bridges having two valves and a module capacitor are at the heart
of sub-module architectures. Partial voltages of the sub-modules combine to the complete
voltage of the branches and thereby branches can act as controllable voltage sources.
Using Modular circuits VSC technology coupled with a complicated control process
can decrease the operating frequency of the converters and thereby directly affect the losses
at the converter station which can amount to about 1 percent. AC voltages are generated by a
cumulative process consisting of step functions with hundreds of voltage steps. This directly
affects the harmonic components in the voltage sinusoids which are directly reduced and thus
improving the overall Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) of the voltage wave. In HVDC
technology based on VSC converters reversal of power depends on the reversal of current
unlike the LCC HVDC in which reversal of power depends on the reversal of voltage.
Polarity of DC voltage thereby always remains the same and hence makes the use of XLPEDC cables possible.
3.1.3. VSC Based Multi Terminal HVDC and its application in the
Supergrid Deployment.
Multi terminal Direct Current systems (MTDC) were first deployed in practical power
systems until 1987 when the first MTDC system was introduced by installing a third terminal
in Corsica to the already existing link between Sardinia and Italy.
Another landmark achievement was the completion of the first large MTDC system
by ABB in 1992 which was again a three terminal HVDC system. While as before, the
MTDC systems used to be based on the LCC converters, because of huge advances in the
field of VSC converters and their subsequent advantages the shift is gradual towards using
the VSC converters for MTDC system deployment. In India itself POWERGRID corporation
of India (PGCIL) is installing +/-800 kV, 6000 MW HVDC multi-terminal system of approx
length of 1728 km from North Eastern Region to Agra which will consist of one rectifier
station in Biswanath Chariali (in North Eastern Region), second one in Alipurduar (in Eastern
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
Region) and Inverter station at Agra (in Northern Region). This will be the first multi
terminal system in India consisting of VSC converters.
For the deployment of MTDC system two types of configurations are possible - the
parallel connection and the series connection. While the parallel connection allows the DC
terminals to operate around a single rated voltage VDC, the series connection involves a
single converter that controls the current around a common current rating and the rest of the
converters control the power. The series connection is more suited for CSC MTDC systems
as the CSCs on the DC side provide the same functions of a voltage source and thus can be
introduced in series connections without any subsequent need for special switching control.
Among other drawbacks of this configuration, the most significant in the HVDC applications
is its inability to control the losses and the use of complicated insulation. More importantly if
circumstances cause one of the DC lines to be disconnected which may be due to fault
conditions; the power flow in the entire DC grid is affected. Hence only parallel
configuration is recommended by power engineers to be used in the MTDC systems.
Consequently if CSCs are used for the parallel connection of an MTDC system, a
complicated and special switching arrangement has to be made to overcome the precise
voltage balancing between the converters which arise because of the voltage source nature of
the CSCs.
Generator
Transmission Line
Converter Station
This cumulates into a more serious technical issue if the converter stations are far
away which is highly probable in case of supergrid MTDC systems since an inherent need of
fast communication channels is needed. The presence of Smart Grids in each of the
participating countries can to a large extent mitigate this technical problem with the presence
of a very fast and reliable communication highway. Thus formation of more than 5 terminal
MTDC system based of CSC converter stations is highly discouraged. On the contrary, if
VSCs are used to form a parallel configuration, their functioning as an ideal current do not
pose any serious technical difficulties. As already shown, reversal of power in case of VSCs
can occur by reversing the direction of current keeping the polarity of the DC voltage
unchanged. This capability of the VSCs is suited for the construction of an MTDC system.
The construction of a bulk power system such as a supergrid VSC based MTDC system
having parallel connected converters has a great potential. The DC supergrid can connect
many unsynchronized grids and provide a definite medium to integrate the renewable energy
from various distributed resources around the subcontinent. This proposition of a DC
supergrid is a direct consequence of the compatibility of VSC converters with a basic parallel
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
The most common practical analysis methods for power flow consist of the Newton
Raphson method and the method of joints. The method of joints is based on the principle of
current balance and is solved iteratively using the Gaus-Seidel method to obtain the required
parameters. The Newton Raphson method uses the power balance techniques of the nodes.
Certain enhancements are done in order to improve the convergency and increase the speed
of algorithmic calculations.
Calculation algorithms have been adapted for the use in the VSC HVDC system that
is a sub-module of the supergrid.
The conductance matrix is arranged after the formation of the network equations and
replacing the branch currents by the product of conductance and the node voltage difference.
In the complete analysis efforts have always been made to replace the current by its
equivalent quantities depending on the network state. In the conduction matrix, since the
serial voltages are known keeping in mind that the node voltage and the serial voltages occur
in equal measure, a separation is necessary. Thereby the general notation is.
[ ][ ]
][
[ ]
The Gaus Seidel method is the most common iterative method that is used to solve the
system of linear equation as it involves the least complexity. Another possibility consists of
using the Jacobian method based on the node equations. For solving the equations of the grid
based on various bus voltages which are chosen based on the known and unknown values
there is a definite need to choose a slack bus which acts as a reference bus and is often the
bus consisting of the largest generation capacity. The system of equations is thus modified
with the provided slack voltage Usl.
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
Using the iterative solution in every step, node currents are first determined using the
node power and then the new state vector is defined which is calculated for the node voltage.
[ ] ]
[ ]
The power flow, slack power and the power loss can be determined after converging
the voltages or node power with the abort criterion after the required convergency is obtained
which in most cases is reached after a maximum of ten steps.
It is of course an inherent characteristic of applying power flow analysis to DC
systems that the PV nodes that are analogous to the three-phase system dont exist in the DC
systems. This is attributed to the fact that only power or voltage is possible on each node as
only a single degree of freedom exists.
The modification of the Newton Raphson method for application to the DC grids is
also possible. This process involves very high complexity and thus this method can be done
with at most 4 steps to obtain the same accuracy. Newtonian directional null method lies at
the heart of the Newton Raphson method. Using the Taylor series expansion the node power
balance is linearized and thereby resolved in each iteration step which leads to the formation
of a Jacobian matrix [J].
Linearized equation:
[
[
]
]=[
]
]*[
[
[
]
[
]= [J]*[
]
[
] = [N]*[
and
]
]
]
;
[N] =
[
Accordingly,
[ ]
With
[ ] [ ]
[ ]
The state vector of voltages are corrected iteratively until the required convergence is
achieved which occurs after a maximum of 5 iteration loops.
Nodes
Political
Technical
Infrastructural
Social
Financial
Consequently a risk map was formed for the high risk items which also reflects a similar
risk map that was formed for the European supergrid deployment. It constituted of
identification of main risk items in each sub category and a risk identification process to
highlight the key risks facing the development of the supergrid.
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
The rating of the risk components was done on their probability of occurrence or their
current state on a scale of 1 to 10. Weighing factors are then applies on the basis of potential
effects of the risk item on a 1-5 scale. Finally the risk percentage is derived using the
formula:
Risk Consequence
Weightings
Risk Area
Weighting
Percentage Risk
Weighted
Weighted
Factor
value
Score
percentage
Rating
score
A) Policy
A1)
Regulatory Uncertainty
A2)
18
100%
158/180
28
45
22
36
87.8%
electricity market
A3)
Coordination and
22
32
28
45
harmonisation of RE support
A4)
Facilitating growth of
investment policies to boost
increase interconnection of
transmission
B) Political
Even though it is very difficult to assign ranks to the political risk or have a
probabilistic analysis of it, it becomes very crucial to work through the minute details
of such a factor because political instability can have a substantial impact on the
decision making.
The subcontinents current political culture, which is entirely based on fragmented
political tendencies and multi coalition governments, make transforming India
subcontinents energy culture into a functioning dynamic system difficult.
Certain key reforms in the energy sphere that can considerably impact the energy
scenario are pending and waiting for approval due to political impasse. This results in
the build-up of socio-political tensions and thus leads to a negative growth of the
economy.
Politicians have half-heartedly always supported the decarbonisation of the electricity
framework even though they stand up in arms against the debts and economic
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
meltdowns. However the politicians always debate against the developed countries in
terms of clean energy by stating the most of the carbon footprint is produced by the
developed countries and the countries in the Indian subcontinent have to follow the
same process in order to become developed.
Steady tensions between the member countries can hamper the deployment of the
supergrid. The Indian Subcontinent has a history of tense relations with its neighbours
but once deployed the supergrid can create a flexible and interconnected network that
is secure against geopolitical disruption. An integrated grid provides access to a
variety of renewable technologies as well as access to conventional thermal
technologies and significant pumped storage reserves. For these reasons it should
serve to protect the Indian subcontinent against systemic macroeconomic risks,
particularly with regard to fossil fuel price shocks.
A very important rationale of the Supergrid is that it benefits the subcontinent as a
whole and not every member country equally. Thereby there will always be a fair
amount of horse-trading between the member countries. Countries that are rich in
natural resources could observe the wholesale energy prices to rise dramatically. The
reason behind it is that countries with an excess of generation, such as Bhutan and Sri
Lanka with abundant hydro reserves will be able to access higher prices from other
member States for the same amount of electric power. It can affect the socioeconomic
culture as asking the consumer to pay extra because of interconnection doesnt seem
to be a wise thing. Fuel poverty is an increasingly hot topic at a political level.
Countries such as Pakistan and India have an abundance of low cost coal, though they
both need to technologically advance the coal refining processes to increase efficient
production. There is no need to stress their societies and buy electricity from other
member countries to their economic detriment.
Risk Consequence
Weightings
Risk Area
Weighting
Percentage
Risk
Weighted Weighted
Factor
value
Rating
Score
percentage
score
B1)
Political
16
100%
122/160
31
10
50
15
12
market
B2)
Geopolitical risk
76.3%
B3)
25
32
25
28
member states
B4)
Collaborative negotiations
. C) Financial Risk
The private investments in the power sector are far below the expectations and need to
be increased substantially. Considerable concerns remain about the regional
concentration of private investments in a few member countries. In India private
investments have started pouring in and increased steadily after the liberalisation of
oil, gas and power sectors. However in spite of all these investments and the
subsequent positive changes that private investment brought in this sector, the
achievement remains a half success.
Countries in the Indian subcontinent need a considerable amount of private
investment to build a reliable and an adequate energy chain.
A considerable lack of depth in financial investment results in hampering of the
delivery and deployment of such a magnanimous project.
Lack of depth in the financial sector coupled with high interest rates makes accessing
the debt capital very difficult, even more so when long term infra-structure
development projects in many countries are backed by PPAs (power purchase
agreements) inclusive of strong cash flows and balance sheets.
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
Risk Consequence
Weightings
Risk Area
Weighting
Percentage
Risk
Weighing Weighted
Factor
value
Rating
Score
percentage
score
C1)
Financial
18
100%
154/180
Regional Concentration of
28
10
50
28
40
private investments
C2)
85.6%
22
32
22
32
delivery chain
C4)
D) Infrastructural risks:
The supergrid will need effective communication platforms for the easy flow of
information from one part of the subcontinent to another. This can be made possible
only through a dynamic communication protocol made possible only by the presence
of a smart grid in each of the member states. The Smart Grid provides the basic
framework required for the establishing of an interconnected network of grids. Thus a
supergrid is actually an interconnection of many Smart Grids.
Member countries in the subcontinent arent yet to the stage where their traditional
grid can be called Smart. This can be attributed to many reasons but there is a general
perception that the planned interconnection of grids can lead to the establishment of a
large networked grid which can in turn lead to mitigation of the supply demand gap
Copyright (2014) All Rights Reserved
Thereby the member countries in a bid to advance their power transferring capabilities
will go ahead with upgrading the system
The supply chain capacity will have to be flexed in indefinite proportions in the
subcontinent in order to provide the required infra-structure for an inter-connected
grid.
The plan to integrate the RES in the subcontinent and the storage reserves has to be
focussed on market integration. A well planned strategic infrastructure will lower the
risks to stake holders by providing a reliable market for the RES.
Risk Consequence
Weightings
Risk Area
Weighting
Percentage
Risk
Weighin
Weighted
Factor
value
Rating
g Score
percentage
score
Infrastructural
15
100%
96/150
D1)
33
45
D2)
Stranded assets
20
D3)
Common Communication
27
24
20
18
policy establishment
D4)
Development phasing
66%
E) Technical Risk:
Numerous projects involving high voltage transmission, both onshore and subsea are
in operation. Recent examples include the subsea BritNED interconnector between
England and the Netherlands (250km, 1000MW subsea HVDC connection) and the
worlds longest onshore HVDC link, the 2500km Rio Madeira link, from Porto Vehlo
to Sao Paolo. Globally, over 5000km of HVDC subsea cables are in operation.
Electricity demand will continue to rise unabated. In the development of the
Supergrid, technical selection of generation will play a key role in decarbonising
Europe to 2050. Policy and political measures deeply affect this. The nuclear phase
out post Fukushima will result in a steady reduction of nuclear output. If this
continues, a replacement to reduce GHG emissions is required.
ABB and ALSTOM have recently declared that production of HVDC circuit breakers,
a device that has been a hurdle for the deployment of HVDC projects until now. With
these circuit breakers, interconnection of HVDC lines to form the basic infrastructure
for the supergrid is now possible.
The number of renewable systems that will be connected to the supergrid will be
increasing and thus the energy produced can potentially supersede the net demand.
Rather than wasting the excess power, the generated energy is diverted to storage
systems. Pumped hydro storage is a very common storage technique worldwide.
Risk Consequence
Weightings
Technical
Weighting
Percentage
Risk
Weighing Weighted
Factor
value
Rating
Score
percentage
score
E1)
Technical Complexity
17
E2)
33
24
50%
decarbonisation
E3)
Storage
25
18
E4)
Energy management
25
12
Percentage of Risk
Percentage of Risk
Infrastrucutural 66
Financial
85.6
87.8
Policy
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Technical
50
Political
76.8
Figure 28: Risk Map for the supergrid deployment in the Indian subcontinent
[Farhan Beg 2014]
4. Conclusion:
The power grids of the future need to be highly adaptive with regards to satisfying
the needs of the high growth economies of the future as well as dynamic to balance and
effectively transfer the huge quanta of power flow. This flexibility in the grid has been
proposed to be achieved by interconnecting several grids in order to form a one nation
supergrid spanning borders. Interconnection of the grid provides a platform for a need based
power flow backed by generation in areas of high potential and consequent transfer where it
can be used most effectively. This networked system is supplemented with a number of
decentralised structures that play a part in load coverage as well as allocating excessive
energy for power flow.
This paper proposed that a networked topology for supergrid deployment is the most
feasible because of its dynamic characteristics to efficiently deal with power flow. This
structure was then analysed through load flow methods adapted for DC grids. This practice
thereby leads to an interconnection of transmission networks of various participating
countries in the subcontinent and also proposed wind power integration from the Sindh valet
located in the Southern Pakistan. The paper concluded with a risk assessment which
categorically pointed out the various risk factors that can impede the deployment and
development of the supergrid. The risk assessment leads to the formulation of a risk map that
provides a strong narrative description of the various risk factors.
The supergrid in the Indian subcontinent will be challenging to deploy and certainly
require several decades to complete. Yet the benefits accrued by each nation make the
investment worthwhile to a billion people seeking clean, reliable electricity
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Version Report of Steinbeis GmbH & Co. KG fr Technologietransfer, Stuttgart Represented
by PROF. DR. HARALD WEBER Head of Steinbeis Transfer Center FOR APPLIED
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