Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Trends
Design to cost
Cost as an independent variable
http://www.acq.osd.mil/pm/newpolicy/wbs/mil_hdbk_881/mil_hdbk_881.htm
FLEX
1.0 MANAGEMENT
2.1 Requirements
2.1.1 Expt Req Document
2.1.2 Subsystem Req. Documents
2.2 Design & Evaluation
2.2.1 3-D 1-g & 0-g Modeling
2.2.2 Feedforward Control Design
2.2.3 Feedback Control Design
2.2.4 Human-in-the-Loop Simulation
2.2.5 Performance Evaluation
2.3 Configuration Control
2.3.1 Design Documents
2.3.2 Processing &Tracking
2.3.3 Equipment List Maintenance
2.3.4 Test Matrix
2.4 Program Reviews
2.4.1 Conceptual Design Review
2.4.2 Requirements Review
2.4.3 Non-Advocate Review
2.4.4 Preliminary Design Review
2.4.5 Critical Design Review
2.4.6 Flight Readiness Review
2.4.7 Post Mission Expt Review
5.0 OPERATIONS
5.1 On-Orbit
5.1.1 Diagnostics & error identi
5.1.2 Human-in-the-Loop
5.1.3 Protocol format
5.2 Ground
5.2.1 KSC
5.2.2 JSC
5.2.3 On-orbit Predictions Document
5.3 Post-Mission Activities
5.3.1 Flight Data Analysis
5.3.2 Reporting and dissemination
Language Factor
Ada
1.00
UNIX-C
1.67
PASCAL
1.25
FORTRAN
0.91
SMAD Table 20-10
Definition
Risk
Std Dev
(%)
High
>25
High
>25
Moderate
20-25
Moderate
15-20
Moderate
10-15
Low
<10
Low
<10
Low
<10
Program Support
Costs activities, systems and hardware development outside the
prime contract
Analyses
Govt test facilities, equipment and personnel
Program office support contractors for technical oversight
Management Reserves
Regression analysis
Complexity factor uncertainty
Cost driver input uncertainty
Time and material cost
Vendor ROMs
Development Status
Reserve
Percent
10%
15%
20%
25%
35%
50%
Production Costs
Inflation
Project description
WBS
Costing References
http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/guidelines.html
http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/models.html
2) Analogous Estimating
Can be applied at any level of design
Inflexible for trade studies
3) Parametric Estimation
Cost Estimation Relationships (CERs)
Best for trade studies during the Conceptual Design Phase
Many program costs are dominated by the labor costs of the standing
army times the duration of the program (e.g., operations)
Labor costs consist of salary times wraps (e.g., overhead and employee benefits)
Overhead includes real estate taxes, facility maintenance, aspects of administration,
etc.
Employee benefits include retirement fund contributions, paid vacation, continuing
education, sometimes health plans
Lifecycle Cost
Launch
Design/Construction
Operations
Should not be underestimated
Multifunctionality,
Modularity
Autonomy
Failure
Compensation
& Replacement
cost
Launch
Operations
Modularity
Decreases design costs at the expense of
Launch costs
Autonomy
Trade between cost of inserting autonomy
during design vs. the actual savings in
operations costs
Few
Large
Small
Heritage
Small Satellites
Examples:
GEO Comm.
Hubble Space Tel.
Cost Model
USAF USCM
(SMAD)
Examples:
Discovery Missions
Explorer Missions
MightySat Missions
Many
Heritage
Examples:
GPS
GOES
Milstar
Cost Model
Aero. Corp. SSCM
(RSMC)
Small Satellites
Cost Model
USAF USCM
(SMAD)
Examples:
OrbComm
Techsat 21
Iridium
Globalstar
Change CERs
Cost Model
Aero. Corp. SSCM
(RSMC)
Distribution
Spacecraft Size
RDT&E Cost
Component
IR Payload
Parameter, X (unit)
Comm Antenna
Wt. (kg)
1-87
Comm Electronics
Wt. (kg)
14-144
Spacecraft Bus
26-897
Structure/Thermal
Wt (kg)
7-428
TT&C
Att Deter
Wt (kg)
Dry Wt. (kg)
4-112
6-97
Prod. Cost
Component
IR Payload
Parameter, X (unit)
Aperture dis. (m)
Comm Antenna
Wt. (kg)
Comm Electronics
Spacecraft Bus
Wt. (kg)
Dry Wt. (kg)
Structure/Thermal
Applicable
Range
0.2-1.2
25-170
104-414,920
CER (FY92$k)
c = 306892x 0.562
Standard
Error
46,061
c = 1015x 0.59
1793
c = 917x 0.7
c = 16253 + 110 x
6466
14,586
4773
3010
5665
1895
5743
Standard
Error
0.2-1.2
c = 122,758 x 0.562
18,425
1-87
c = 20 + 230 x 0.59
c = 179 x
476
13-156
8235
26-1237
c = 185x 0.77
6655
Wt. (kg)
7-777
c = 86x 0.65
1247
TT&C
Wt. (kg)
4-112
c = 93 + 164 x 0.93
1565
Att Deter
6-97
c = 1244x 0.39
1912
9-167
999
Power
183x 0.29
2254
104-414,920
Independent Variable
12
c = 34.84 + 4.66ln(x)
20
14
13
14
9
14
5
16
10
16
17
14
13
12
14
18
c = 0.704+ 0.0235x1.261
c = 6.65+ 0.042x2
c = 2.55+ 0.29x1.35
c = 3.58+1.53x0.702
c = 11.06 + 0.19x2
c = 1.47 + 0.07x ln(x)
c = 46.16 41.86x0.5
c = 1.67 +12.98x0.5
c = 12.94 6.681x ln(x)
c = 22.62 +17.9x0.15
c = 8.23+ 8.14x0.22
c = 0.507+1.55x0.452
c = 814.5 + 825.7x0.0066
c = 1.45+1.91x0.754
c = 143.5 +154.85x0.0079
c = 26.0 21.86x0.23
Applicable
Range
2,000-80,000
20-400
1-25
3-30
7-70
5-12
5-100
1-8
0.25-12
0.1-3
20-480
5-10
5-440
0.3-11
5-32
0.02-100
1-1000
Standard
Error
(FY94$M)
4.27
3.33
5.45
4.50
3.52
5.37
5.40
8.95
7.37
8.79
6.13
5.71
6.20
6.37
6.01
8.46
8.91
Independent Variable(s)
r: EOL power (W)
s: Pointing accuracy (deg)
r: TT&C mass (kg)
s: Payload power (W)
r: Downlink data rate (kbps)
s: Average power (W)
p: Prop system dry mass (kg)
r: Spacecraft dry mass (kg)
s: Pointing accuracy (deg)
r: Solar array area (m2)
s: ACS type (3-axis or other)
r: Power subsys mass (kg)
18
c = 0.702r 0.554s0.0363
21
c = 1.44r 0.0107s0.5091.0096p
26
20
c = 4.291r 0.2551.989s
25
c = 0.602r 0.839
Applicable Range
r: 5-500
s: 0.05-5
r: 3-50
s: 10-120
r: 1-2000
s: 5-410
p:-35
r: 20-400
s: 0.05-5
r: 0.3-11
s: 0=other, 1=3-axis
r: 7-70
Std. Error
(%)
29.55
1
2
35.68
35.66
37.19
38.53
37.07
Learning Curve
0.9
1) B = 1
ln 2
2) L=NB
3) Production Cost = TFU x L
Calculation: ln((100%) / S)
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
where
0.4
<10
95%
10-50
>50
90%
85%
20
30
40
50
N
60
70
80
90
100
90
100
90
80
70
60
No Learning Curve
50
40
30
S=90%
20
10
0
10
100
Cumulative Cost
10
20
30
40
50
N
60
70
80
Team Familiarity
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
(E)
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
(A) Team is totally familiar with the project and has completed several identical projects. Teams technical expertise is
superior.
(B) Team is very familiar with the type of project and has completed similar projects. Teams technical expertise is very good.
(C) Nominal team has related but not identical project experience. Teams technical expertise is average.
(D) Project introduces many new aspects with which team is unfamiliar. Teams technical expertise is below average.
(E) Team is totally unfamiliar with this type of project. Teams technical expertise is poor.
Technology
Readiness
Level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Added Cost
(%)
>25%
>25%
20-25%
15-20%
10-15%
<10%
<10%
<5%
Technology
Formation Flying
Deployable Structures
Interferometry Optics
Tethers
Cryogenic Optics
Deployable Primaries
Autonomy
White Light Nulling
High Speed Controls
TRL
New TRL
Operations Costs
Ground Stations
Facilities (The Operations Control Center)
Equipment (Antenna, Computers, etc.)
Software (Usually the most difficult & most expensive)
Personnel
Maintenance Costs
Contractor Labor (~$140K/Staff Year)
Government Labor (~$95K/Staff Year)
Adapted from:
Applied Systems Analysis - de Neufville
Aerospace Product Design Course Notes - C. Boppe
1) Inflation
Adapted from:
Applied Systems Analysis - de Neufville
Aerospace Product Design Course Notes - C. Boppe
When doing a cash flow analysis for a large, long-term space project, it is
important to compare all revenues and expenditures in constant dollars.
Commercial Space Projects
When does it make sense to invest in a space project?
When the expected return on investment in the project is greater than the return from investing the
same amount of capital at the interest rate.
Determined through a cash flow analysis.
10
11
12
13
14
-1.0E+09
-2.0E+09
-3.0E+09
-4.0E+09
Yrly Net-Cash
Cum-Cashflows
Baseline NPV
15
Costing References
Space Mission Analysis and Design, Larson and Wertz, Ch. 20.
Reducing Space Mission Cost, Wertz and Larson, Entire Book
see reference list in Ch. 8
$ = 222.3645M
0.19652
e
1
0.014638
M
Veffective
$ is in FY02$M
Needing to retract the MER wheels for stowage drove up cost
Literature Search
S = 0.37 D
2.58
[M$] (1980)
DHQ f/5
DHQ f/4.5
D Truss f/5
Obsession f/4.5
Celestron G-f/10
C = 28917D 2.76
x 10
3
Telescope Purchase Cost C [2001$]
2.76
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.9
x 10
3.5
CERs for
Ritchey-Chretien
Ritchey-Chretien
Classical Cassegrain
3
2.5
Classical Cassegrain
1.5
0.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Aperture Diameter D [m]
0.8
0.9
Remarkable Result:
virtually identical
power law across
completely different
product lines.
Kg = 2.49 Nms
0.41
14
12
0.8
$ ACS = co Kg ACS
10
Mass [Kg]
8
6
4
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
Momentum Capacity [Nms]
60
70
Sub-System
Passive Optics Soon-Jo Chung
Janaki Wickrema
Erik Iglesias
David Ngo
Active Optics Soon-Jo Chung
Abran Alaniz
Praxedis Flores III
ACS
Carl Blaurock
Ayanna Samuels
Susan Kim
Paul Wooster
Structures
Marc dos Santos
David LoBosco
PAS
Raymond Sedwick
Soon-Jo Chung
Carolina Tortora
Christopher Rakowski
Dustin Berkovitz
SOC
John Keesee
Eric Coulter
Daniel Kwon/Lisa Girerd
Management Paul Bauer
David Miller
Raymond Sedwick
John Keesee
Total
Yearly
Hours
Rate
Spring Summer Fall
Spring
$70,000
200
200
200
200
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$50,000
260
360
260
130
$50,000
260
360
260
130
$70,000
150
160
150
150
$50,000
260
360
260
130
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$70,000
0
0
78
78
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$70,000
104
96
104
104
$70,000
0
0
0
104
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$50,000
260
360
260
130
$50,000
260
360
260
130
$90,000
104
96
104
104
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$50,000
260
0
260
130
$70,000
104
96
104
104
$90,000
104
48
104
104
$70,000
26
0
26
26
$90,000
26
0
26
26
Total
800
650
1010
1010
610
1010
650
156
650
650
650
650
650
408
104
650
1010
1010
408
650
650
408
360
78
78
ARGOS
Total
Recurring
$61,833
$15,458
$35,885
$7,177
$55,760
$7,177
$55,760
$7,177
$47,148
$11,594
$55,760
$7,177
$35,885
$7,177
$12,058
$6,029
$35,885
$7,177
$35,885
$7,177
$35,885
$7,177
$35,885
$7,177
$35,885
$7,177
$31,535
$8,038
$8,038
$8,038
$35,885
$7,177
$55,760
$7,177
$55,760
$7,177
$40,545
$10,335
$35,885
$7,177
$35,885
$7,177
$31,535
$8,038
$35,775
$10,335
$6,029
$2,010
$7,751
$2,584
$919,903 $190,115
EB/OHD Wrap
2.12
Student
$50,000
Staff
$70,000
Management
$90,000
Sub-System
mult
Passive Optics
Active Optics
ACS
Structures
PAS
SOC
Management
Total
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Sub-System
mult
Passive Optics
Active Optics
ACS
Structures
PAS
SOC
Management
Total
1.5
2
1
2
1
1
1
ARGOS
Total
$209,240
$138,794
$119,714
$71,771
$186,980
$112,316
$81,090
$919,903
Recurring
$36,990
$25,948
$27,560
$14,354
$37,608
$24,689
$22,967
$190,115
mult
Golay-6
Total
$313,859
$277,588
$119,714
$143,542
$186,980
$112,316
$81,090
$1,235,088
Recurring
$55,484
$51,896
$27,560
$28,708
$37,608
$24,689
$22,967
$248,912
mult
0.3
0.3
1
0.6
1
1
1
2
3
1
3
1
1
1
Monolith
Total
$62,772
$41,638
$119,714
$43,063
$186,980
$112,316
$81,090
$647,572
Recurring
$11,096.88
$7,784.38
$27,560.00
$8,612.50
$37,607.92
$24,689.17
$22,966.67
$140,318
mult
Golay-9
Total
$418,479
$416,381
$119,714
$215,313
$186,980
$112,316
$81,090
$1,550,272
Recurring
$73,979
$77,844
$27,560
$43,063
$37,608
$24,689
$22,967
$307,709
mult
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2.5
4
1
4
1
1
1
Golay-3
Total
$209,240
$138,794
$119,714
$71,771
$186,980
$112,316
$81,090
$919,903
Recurring
$36,990
$25,948
$27,560
$14,354
$37,608
$24,689
$22,967
$190,115
Golay-12
Total
$523,099
$555,175
$119,714
$287,083
$186,980
$112,316
$81,090
$1,865,456
Recurring
$92,474
$103,792
$27,560
$57,417
$37,608
$24,689
$22,967
$366,506
EE=83.5%
EE=26.4%
EE=9.3%
EE=3.6%
EE=2.2%