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THRE4T ASSESSMENT
LIBYA:
Objective

Assessment note
-

This ITAQassessment is infotmed by a body of opn

reporting.

ITAC I CIET
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SECRET.

Targets and Tactics

3. Since the 2011 fall of Muammar Gadhafis regime, extremists have conducted near daily
assassinations bombings and kidnappings Libyan government interests as well as foreign
diplomatic staff, have been the main targets. In 2012,
attacked the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, killing theUS. Ambassador and three other
Americans. That same year, a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) struck a convoy in Benghazi
carrying the British Ambassador to Libya. In 2013, the French and United Arab Emirates
(UAE) embassies in Tripoli were attacked,

4.

In December 2013, a suspected AAS extremist conducted a


suicide attack against Libyan security personnel near Benghazi, in the first known suicide
bombing since the fall of Gadhafi. In April 2014, another suicide attack was conducted at a
checkpoint outside Benghazi.

SECRET

ITAC / CIET
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5. Since January 2014, extremists have kidnapped a number of foreign diplomats, including five
Egyptians, two South Koreans, two Tunisians, and the Ambassador of Jordan to Libya.
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Khalifa Ilaftars operations against Islamist militias


7. In late May 2014, militias
aligned with former Libyan
L.
Army General
Khalifa Haftar, attacked Islamist
strongholds in Benghazi and
Tripoli, as well as the Libyan
General
National
Congress
(GNC). The operations are
allegedly aimed at rooting out
1
islamist extremism in Libya.,
AAS declared Haftars assault a
war on Islam and said it was
prepared to defend the city of
Benghazi.

8. In late May 2014,


would hold parliamentary elections on 2014 06 25.

the GNC announced that Libya

).

i)

,.

9. In a 2014 05 27 online statement, AAS accused Haftar of being an agent of U.S. intelligence,
and that the U.S. and Western allies were seeking to install him as a new dictator. AAS
further threatened that shouldthe US. try to intervene, they would face the most severe of
what it experienced in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia. On 2014 05 26, a Libyan extremist
group calling itself Ajnad aIKhilafah claimed responsibility for a car bombing in Tobruk

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(Eastern Libya) and threatened to conduct war upon those supporting Haftar.

10. On 20140531, AQIM issued a statement calling Haftars operations inLibyaa crusader
scheme, backed by the U.S. and conspirators from the Gulf countries, and urged Muslims to
support Islamist fighters.

Embassy evacuations
12. In May 2014, several countries, including Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) evacuated their diplomatic staff from Libya due to deteriorating security
conditions. On 2014 05 28, the U.S. warned its citizens to leave the country,
As of 2014 05 29, the Canadian Embassy in Tripoli remains open
On 2014 06 01, the Department of
Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD), raised its warning level for Libya to its
highest level, advising Canadians against all travel to the country.

Canadian presence in Libya


13
According to DFATDs Registration of
Canadians registered in Libya;
Canadians Abroad (ROCA), as of 2014 05 29, there are
however, the actual number may be higher.

ITAC I CET
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HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS

This document is the property of the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre (ITAC). Preparcd by ITAC, it is
derived from various sources with information effective as of the date of publication. It is provided to your
agency/department in confidenceand may be further disseminated by your agency/department to those with
appropriate security clearances and appropriate security systems to retain the information. It must not be reclassified
otreused in any way, in whole or in part, without the consent of the originator. Any feedback should be directed
via Mandrake emailto:
Internal Users:
4andrake
External Users:
This document constitutes a record which may be subject to mandatory exemption under the Access to hmfonno.iion
Ad or the Privacy Act. The information or intelligence may also be protected by the provisions of the Canada
Evidence ACt. The information or intelligence must not be disclosed or used as evidence without prior consultation
with ITAC.

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EVALUATION DE LA MENACE
LIII YE

Objectif

Notad.

La prsente evaluation sappuie sur de nombreux renseignements de sources ouvertes

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Cibles et mthodes
3.

Depuis Ia chute du rgime de Mouammar Kadhafi en 2011, des extrmistes se sont livrs
presque tous les jours a des assassinats, des attentats a Ia bombe et des enlvements dont les
principales cibles ont t les intrts du gouvernement libyen ainsi que les membres du
personnel diplomatique etranger. En 2012,
sen sont pris au consulat des Etats-Unis a Benghazi, tuant ainsi
lambassadeur des Etats-Unis et trois autres Amricains. La mme anne a Benghazi, une
grenade propulse par fuse a t lance sur un convoi qui transportait Iambassadeur du
Royaume-Uni en Libye. Puis, a Tripoli en 2013, les ambassades de la France et des Emirats
arabes unis ont t la cible dattentats,

4.

En effet, le premier attentat suicide depuis la chute de

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Kadhafi a t commis en dcembre 2013 prs de Benghazi par un extrmiste souponn


dappartenir a AAC contre des responsables libyens de Ia scurit. Puis, en avril 2014, un
autre attentat suicide a t perptr a un poste de contrle de Ia circulation a. proximit de
r
Benghazi.
.

F),

5.

1
S
..

Depuis janvier 2014, des extrmistes ont enlev plusieurs diplomates trangers, dont cinq
Egyptiens, deux Sud-Corens et deux Tunisiens, ainsi que larnbassadeur de Ia Jordanie en
Libye.

Operations de Khalifa Haftar contre Its milices islamistes

7.

_LL

Ia fin de mai 2014, des


sur
milices
alignes
Khalifa Haftar,
ancien 7
un
general de larme lihyennei,.
lance des attaques contre des
bastions islarnistes a. Benghazi
et a. Tripoli ainsi que contre le
Congrs
gndral
national
(CGN) de Ia Libye. Le but des
operations serait deradiquer
lextrmisrne
en
islamiste
Libye. AAC a qualifi lassaut
de Haftar de <guerre>> contre
lislam et a dclar tre prt a
dfendre Ia yule de Benghazi.

8.

le CGN a annonc a Ia fin de mai 2014 que des elections


parlementaires auraient lieu en Libye le 2014 06 25.

CIET/ ITAC
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9.

SECRET

Dans une declaration publie en ligne le 201405 27, AAC a accuse Haftar dtre un agent
de lappareil de renseignement amricain et a indiqu que les Et.ats-Unis et ses allies
occidentaux tentaient de le hisser au rang de nouveau dictateur. AAC a aussi mentionn que
si les Etats-Unis tentaient dintervenir, us allaient faire face au <<plus grave>> de ce quils
ont vcu en Afghanistan, en Irak et en Somalie. Le 2014 05 26, un groupe extrmiste libyen
se faisant appeler << Ajnad al-Khiiafah >> a revendiqu Iattentat a Ia voiture pige survenu a
Tobrouk (dans lest de Ia Libye) et a menace de Iivrer une <<guerre>> aux partisans de
Haftar.

10. Le 2014 05 31, AQMI a dclar que les operations de Haftar en Libye taient un complot de
<<croiss>> soutenu par les Etat&Unis et les < conspirateurs >> des pays du Golfe et a pri les
musulmans dappuyer les cmbattants islamistes.

Evacuations dambassade
12. En mai 2014, plusieurs pays, dont lAlgrie, IArabie saoudite et les Emirats arabes unis, ont
fait sortir de la Libye les membres de leur personnel diplomatique en raison de Ia
dtrioration de Ia situation scuritaire. Le 2014 05 28, les Etats-Unis ont demand a leurs
En date
citoyens de quitter Ia Libye,
du 2014 05 29, Iambassade du Canada a Tripoli dtait toujours ouverte et pour linstant,
Le 2014 06 01, le ministr des Affaires trangres, Commerce et Dveloppement Canada

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MANIPULATION DE RENSEIGNEMENTS
I.e present documentest Is prnprilC du Centre integre devaluation du terrorisme (CIET) Cf a etC prepare par celui-ci. II sappule
sur des informations qui proviennent de diverses sources CL qui sont valables i Is date de publication. II esi fourni a votre
organicrne ou ministCre C titre confidenhel et peut Ctre communiqu directcrnent par votre organisrue on ministCre aux perconnes
qui possdent Ia cote de sCcuritC nCcessaire CL Ins systCrnes de sdcuritC appropriCs pour conserver ens informatioiss. II ne doit Ctre
ni reclassifiC ni r6utilisC, de quelque maniCre que cc soil, en tout ou en partie, sans Ic consentement de lexpCditeur. Les
observations doivent Cire aeheininCes par courriel (Mandrake) sax adresses suivantes
Destiiiataires a Iinternc
Oestinataires a Iexterne
Mandrake
Ce preaent document pent faire lobjet dune exception aux tensies de Ia Lot cur iaccC,s a linformat ion et de a i,oi cur la
protection &s renseigne?nents personnels. On pourra Cgalement sopposer a a communication des inforrnauons ou des
renscignements quil contient en vertu de Ia Lol stir Ia preuve an Canada. Ces informations on renscignements ne doivent CIre ni
communiqus ni utilisCs comnie precive sans consultation pralable du CIET.