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CONVENCIONES
DATO DE ENTRADA
CALCULO O RESULTADO (el contenido de estas celdas no se debe alterar)
VERIFICACIONES (el contenido de estas celdas no se debe alterar)
INFORMACION GENERAL
NOMBRE DE LA EMPRESA:
FECHA VALORACIN:
PRIMER AO PROYECTADO:
CIFRAS EN:
FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE:
EMPRESA X
Mar-12
2012
MILLONES DE PESOS
SE ASUME EN JULIO DE CADA AO
INDICE
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
BALANCE GENERAL
SUPUESTOS DE PROYECCIN ER Y BALANCE
FLUJO DE TESORERIA
FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE OPERACIONAL
SUPUESTOS DE TASA DE DESCUENTO Y PERPETUIDAD
RESULTADOS DE LA VALORACIN
GRAFICOS
BETAS DESAPALANCADOS DE DIVERSOS SECTORES
"ER"
"BALANCE"
"SUPUESTOS PROYECCION"
"TESORERIA"
"FCLO"
"SUPUESTOS VALORACIN"
"VALORACIN"
"GRAFICOS"
"BETAS"
ADVERTENCIA
Banca de Inversin Bancolombia, como gestora del Simulador de Valoracin, no certifica, ni
garantiza expresa o implcitamente, la exactitud de los resultados arrojados por el uso de dicho
Simulador. Igualmente Banca de Inversin Bancolombia manifiesta que la autorizacin para el
uso del presente Simulador de Valoracin no constituye una asesora de ningn tipo, ni se
entender que se ha contratado a dicha entidad para la prestacin de servicios financieros.
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
EMPRESA X
CIFRAS EN MILLONES DE PESOS
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
1 Ventas Netas
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
108.0
116.6
126.0
136.0
146.9
158.7
171.4
185.1
199.9
215.9
2 Costo de Ventas
Utilidad Bruta
60.0
40.0
60.0
40.0
60.0
40.0
60.0
40.0
60.0
40.0
64.8
43.2
70.0
46.7
75.6
50.4
81.6
54.4
88.2
58.8
95.2
63.5
102.8
68.6
111.1
74.0
119.9
80.0
129.5
86.4
Margen Bruto
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
3 Gastos de Administracin
4 Gastos de Ventas
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.2
4.3
3.3
4.7
3.5
5.0
3.6
5.4
3.8
5.9
4.0
6.3
4.2
6.9
4.4
7.4
4.7
8.0
4.9
8.6
5 Depreciaciones
6 Amortizaciones
Utilidad Operativa (EBIT)
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.0
1.0
30.0
2.1
0.9
32.7
2.2
2.2
34.3
2.4
3.4
36.1
2.5
4.5
38.4
2.6
5.4
41.1
2.8
6.1
44.3
2.9
6.6
48.0
3.0
7.1
52.1
3.1
7.6
56.6
3.3
8.1
61.5
Margen Operacional
EBITDA
0.3
33.0
0.3
33.0
0.3
33.0
0.3
33.0
0.3
33.0
0.3
35.7
0.3
38.7
0.3
41.9
0.3
45.3
0.3
49.1
0.3
53.1
0.3
57.5
0.3
62.2
0.3
67.3
0.3
72.8
Margen EBITDA
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
34%
34%
34%
34%
7 Ingresos Financieros
8 Otros Ingresos no Operacionales
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
0.4
2.2
1.4
2.3
1.5
2.5
1.7
2.7
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.2
4.6
3.4
6.0
3.7
7.7
4.0
9.5
4.3
9 Egresos Financieros
10 Otros Egresos no Operacionales
8.0
3.0
8.0
3.0
8.0
3.0
8.0
3.0
8.0
3.0
5.9
3.2
5.6
3.5
4.8
3.8
4.4
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.8
4.2
5.1
4.2
5.6
4.2
6.0
4.2
6.5
11 Diferencia en Cambio
12 Correccin Monetaria
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
-1.1
-0.9
0.3
-1.4
0.0
-1.9
0.0
-2.5
0.0
-3.0
0.0
-3.6
0.0
-4.4
0.0
-5.3
0.0
-6.2
0.0
-7.3
29.0
29.0
29.0
29.0
29.0
24.1
27.9
29.6
31.7
34.7
38.3
42.3
46.8
51.8
57.3
10.0
19.0
10.0
19.0
10.0
19.0
10.0
19.0
10.0
19.0
7.9
16.1
9.2
18.7
9.8
19.8
10.5
21.3
11.4
23.2
12.6
25.6
14.0
28.3
15.4
31.4
17.1
34.7
18.9
38.4
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
15%
16%
16%
16%
16%
16%
17%
17%
17%
18%
BALANCE
EMPRESA X
CIFRAS EN MILLONES DE PESOS
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
ACTIVOS
1
ACTIVOS CORRIENTES
Disponible
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.3
6.8
7.3
7.9
8.6
9.3
10.0
10.8
2
3
Inversiones Temporales
Cuentas por Cobrar (Deudores)
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
22.1
2.2
23.8
2.3
27.3
2.5
42.8
2.7
61.8
2.9
84.5
3.2
112.1
3.4
143.9
3.7
180.5
4.0
222.1
4.3
4
5
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
6
7
Pagos x Anticipado
Otros Activos Corrientes
Activos Corrientes
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.0
2.0
17.0
2.2
0.0
36.2
2.3
0.0
39.0
2.5
0.0
43.7
2.7
0.0
60.5
2.9
0.0
80.9
3.2
0.0
105.2
3.4
0.0
134.4
3.7
0.0
168.1
4.0
0.0
206.6
4.3
0.0
250.3
25.0
3.0
25.0
3.0
25.0
3.0
25.0
3.0
25.0
3.0
28.1
5.1
31.2
7.3
34.5
9.6
37.9
12.1
41.3
14.8
44.9
17.5
48.6
20.4
52.5
23.4
56.5
26.5
60.6
29.8
10
22.0
4.0
22.0
4.0
22.0
4.0
22.0
4.0
22.0
4.0
23.0
14.0
24.0
24.0
24.9
34.0
25.7
44.0
26.6
54.0
27.4
64.0
28.2
74.0
29.1
84.0
30.0
94.0
30.8
104.0
11
Amortizacin Acumulada
Diferidos e Intangibles, neto
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
0.9
13.1
3.1
20.9
6.5
27.5
11.0
33.0
16.4
37.7
22.4
41.6
29.0
45.0
36.1
47.9
43.6
50.4
51.7
52.3
12
13
Otros Activos
Valorizaciones
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.4
2.0
5.8
2.0
6.3
2.0
6.8
2.0
7.3
2.0
7.9
2.0
8.6
2.0
9.3
2.0
10.0
2.0
10.8
2.0
14
Inversiones
Activo Largo Plazo
4.0
37.0
4.0
37.0
4.0
37.0
4.0
37.0
4.0
37.0
4.0
47.5
4.0
56.7
4.0
64.7
4.0
71.6
4.0
77.6
4.0
82.9
4.0
87.8
4.0
92.3
4.0
96.3
4.0
99.9
Total Activos
54.0
54.0
54.0
54.0
54.0
83.7
95.7
108.4
132.1
158.5
188.1
222.2
260.4
302.9
350.2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
PASIVOS
14
PASIVOS CORRIENTES
Obligaciones Fin. de Corto Plazo
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15
16
Proveedores
Impuestos y Retenciones
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
7.9
1.2
9.2
1.3
9.8
1.4
10.5
1.5
11.4
1.6
12.6
1.7
14.0
1.9
15.4
2.0
17.1
2.2
18.9
17
18
Dividendos x Pagar
Otros Acreedores
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
1.2
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.5
0.0
1.6
0.0
1.7
0.0
1.9
0.0
2.0
0.0
2.2
19
1.0
7.0
1.0
7.0
1.0
7.0
1.0
7.0
1.0
7.0
1.1
11.2
1.2
12.7
1.3
13.5
1.4
14.6
1.5
15.8
1.6
17.4
1.7
19.1
1.9
21.0
2.0
23.1
2.2
25.4
15.0
2.0
17.0
15.0
2.0
17.0
15.0
2.0
17.0
15.0
2.0
17.0
15.0
2.0
17.0
25.4
0.0
25.4
15.9
0.0
15.9
6.0
0.0
6.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
4.0
0.0
4.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
Total Pasivos
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
36.6
28.6
19.5
19.6
19.8
20.4
22.1
24.0
26.1
28.4
PATRIMONIO
22
23
Capital
Reservas
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
5.0
3.9
5.0
5.5
5.0
7.4
5.0
9.4
5.0
11.5
5.0
13.8
5.0
16.4
5.0
19.2
5.0
22.3
5.0
25.8
24
25
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.9
18.1
3.3
32.6
5.2
49.4
7.6
67.3
10.5
86.4
13.9
107.3
18.0
130.4
22.9
155.9
28.6
184.1
35.2
215.4
26
27
19.0
2.0
19.0
2.0
19.0
2.0
19.0
2.0
19.0
2.0
16.1
2.0
18.7
2.0
19.8
2.0
21.3
2.0
23.2
2.0
25.6
2.0
28.3
2.0
31.4
2.0
34.7
2.0
38.4
2.0
Total Patrimonio
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
47.0
67.1
88.9
112.5
138.7
167.7
200.1
236.4
276.8
321.8
Pasivos y Patrimonio
54.0
54.0
54.0
54.0
54.0
83.7
95.7
108.4
132.1
158.5
188.1
222.2
260.4
302.9
350.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Check
SUPUESTOS DE PROYECCION
EMPRESA X
CIFRAS EN MILLONES DE PESOS
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
4.48%
5.69%
7.67%
3.17%
3.73%
3.4%
3.2%
5.55%
6.80%
1.27%
7.52%
9.00%
2.73%
4.37%
4.29%
4.00%
5.49%
3.6%
4.88%
3.4%
4.85%
3.1%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
3.4%
4.63%
3.4%
4.58%
3.4%
4.6%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
3.4%
4.5%
-1.99%
1.63%
-10.01%
-11.86%
11.60%
-5.46%
-6.37%
-12.01%
1.50%
-2.68%
-11.51%
-5.85%
3.55%
3.62%
1.91%
-0.44%
-5.73%
-2.45%
-4.9%
-4.2%
-2.2%
-2.7%
-2.2%
-2.7%
-2.2%
-2.7%
-2.2%
-2.7%
-2.2%
-2.7%
2,239
2,359
2,015
2,078
2,244
1,965
1,914
1,898
1,943
1,847
1,719
1,739
1,780
1,802
1,814
1,794
1,710
1,750
1,626
1,676
1,590
1,630
1,555
1,585
1,520
1,542
1,487
1,499
1,454
1,458
6.82%
6.25%
8.53%
8.01%
10.12%
9.70%
3.50%
3.66%
4.98%
4.13%
4.61%
4.72%
5.43%
5.31%
5.30%
5.35%
4.89%
5.04%
5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
5.0%
4.9%
5.0%
4.9%
5.0%
4.9%
5.0%
4.9%
5.0%
5.25%
1.32
2.60%
4.25%
1.45
4.10%
0.25%
1.40
-0.80%
0,25%
1.34
1.60%
0,25%
1.29
2.80%
0,25%
1.44
2.60%
0,25%
1.41
2.80%
0.75%
1.45
2.40%
1.00%
1.48
2.60%
1.3%
1.53
2.4%
1.8%
1.51
2.5%
1.8%
1.51
2.5%
1.8%
1.51
2.5%
1.8%
1.51
2.5%
1.8%
1.51
2.5%
Control
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
SUPUESTOS MACROECONMICOS
100
100
0%
100
0%
100
0%
100
0%
108
8%
117
8%
126
8%
136
8%
147
8%
159
8%
171
8%
185
8%
200
8%
216
8%
2 Costo de Ventas
Costo de Ventas/Ventas Netas
3 Gastos de Administracin
60
60%
3
60
60%
3
60
60%
3
60
60%
3
60
60%
3
65
60%
3
70
60%
3
76
60%
3
82
60%
4
88
60%
4
95
60%
4
103
60%
4
111
60%
4
120
60%
5
130
60%
5
3
0%
3
0%
3
0%
3
0%
3
5%
3
5%
3
5%
4
5%
4
5%
4
5%
4
5%
4
5%
5
5%
5
5%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
4
4%
0
5
4%
0
5
4%
0
5
4%
0
6
4%
0
6
4%
0
7
4%
0
7
4%
0
8
4%
0
9
4%
5 Depreciaciones
Depreciaciones Activos Histricos
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
3
2
3
2
3
2
3
2
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
3
0
0
4
0
1
5
0
1
6
0
1
7
0
1
7
0
1
8
0
1
8
0
1
0
2
1
3
1
4
2
5
2
6
3
6
5
7
6
7
8
8
10
30
5%
2
34
5%
3
50
5%
3
69
5%
3
92
5%
3
121
5%
3
153
5%
4
190
5%
4
233
5%
4
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
27
5%
2
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
7.0
3.0
8.4%
8.0%
4.0
3.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
4.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
0.0
0.0
8.4%
8.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Amortizacion en MM Pesos
Tasa de interes promedio anual en USD (E.A)
Tasa de Inters (N.A.S.V)
1
6.1%
6.0%
1
6.1%
6.0%
1
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
0
6.1%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
9
1
0
7
2
0
6
1
0
5
1
0
4
1
0
3
1
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
8.2%
5.0%
Spread (E.A)
Intereses Pagados en MM Pesos
Deuda Nueva Largo Plazo en USD
3.0%
0
3.0%
1
3.0%
1
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
3.0%
0
5
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
4
1
4
2
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Amortizacion en MM Pesos
Tasa de interes promedio anual en USD
2
6.1%
4
6.1%
4
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
0
6.1%
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
3.0%
3.0%
0
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
0
9.2%
5.0%
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
4.0%
0
9 Egresos Financieros
15.0
Saldo en MM Pesos
Amortizacin en MM Pesos
Tasa de interes promedio anual (E.A)
Tasa de Inters (T.A)
10.0
Spread (E.A)
Intereses Pagados en MM Pesos
D. LEASING
Intereses Leasing Financiero Actual
Intereses Leasing Financiero Nuevo
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
2
3
3%
-1
3
3%
0
4
3%
0
4
3%
0
4
3%
0
5
3%
0
5
3%
0
6
3%
0
6
3%
0
6
3%
0
12 Correccin Monetaria
AXI Activos
-1
0
-1
0
-2
0
-2
0
-3
0
-4
0
-4
0
-5
0
-6
0
-7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
3
0
4
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
7
AXI
AXI
AXI
AXI
PPE Histrico
PPE Nuevo
Depreciacin Acumulada PPE histrica
Depreciacin Acumulada Inversiones Nuevas
AXI Inventario
AXI Patrimonio
13 Impuesto de Renta
Tarifa Impuesto de Renta
Renta Lquida
Utilidad antes de Impuestos
Deducciones, otros ajustes
Renta Presuntiva
Patrimonio Ajustado por Valorizaciones Ao Anterior
% Aplicado a Patrimonio Ajustado
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
10
10
10
10
10
33.0%
8
33.0%
24
24
9
33.0%
28
28
10
33.0%
30
30
10
33.0%
32
32
11
33.0%
35
35
13
33.0%
38
38
14
33.0%
42
42
15
33.0%
47
47
17
33.0%
52
52
19
33.0%
57
57
0
2
28
6.0%
0
1
45
3.0%
0
2
65
3.0%
0
3
87
3.0%
0
3
111
3.0%
0
4
137
3.0%
0
5
166
3.0%
0
6
198
3.0%
0
7
234
3.0%
0
8
275
3.0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
Disponible
Das de Ventas Netas
5
18
5
18
5
18
5
18
5
18
5
18
6
18
6
18
7
18
7
18
8
18
9
18
9
18
10
18
11
18
3
4
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
2
7
2
3
7
3
3
7
3
3
7
3
3
7
3
3
7
3
4
7
4
4
7
4
4
7
4
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
3
7
4
7
4
7
4
7
4
12
12
12
12
12
12
0
2
12
0
2
12
0
3
12
0
3
12
0
3
12
0
3
12
0
3
12
0
4
12
0
4
12
0
4
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
2
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
25
25
25
25
25
28
31
35
38
41
45
49
52
56
61
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
10
13
16
20
24
27
31
36
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
10
1%
1
10
1%
1
10
1%
1
10
1%
1
10
1%
2
10
1%
2
10
1%
2
10
1%
2
10
1%
2
10
1%
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
50%
2
1
Opcin 2: Inversiones como % de ventas
Depreciacin Acumulada
10
12
15
18
20
23
27
30
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
8%
12%
8%
12%
8%
12%
8%
12%
8%
12%
8%
20%
ok
8%
28%
ok
8%
36%
ok
8%
44%
ok
8%
52%
ok
8%
60%
ok
8%
68%
ok
8%
76%
ok
8%
84%
ok
8%
92%
ok
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
1
3
0
1
3
0
1
4
0
1
6
0
1
7
0
1
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
ok
0
ok
0
ok
0
ok
0
ok
0
ok
0
ok
0
ok
0
ok
0
ok
14
24
34
44
54
64
74
84
94
104
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
10
0
20
0
30
0
40
0
50
0
60
0
70
0
80
0
90
0
100
0
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
10
10
1%
50%
11
16
22
29
36
44
52
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
25%
0%
25%
0%
25%
0%
25%
0%
25%
0%
8%
8%
ok
8%
16%
ok
8%
24%
ok
8%
32%
ok
8%
40%
ok
8%
48%
ok
8%
56%
ok
8%
64%
ok
8%
72%
ok
8%
80%
ok
1
0
2
0
6
0
10
0
15
0
21
0
27
0
34
0
41
0
49
0
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
2
1
ok
11
Otros Activos
12
% Ventas Netas
Valorizaciones
Incremento Valorizaciones
13
Inversiones
Incremento Inversiones
10
11
5%
2
5%
2
5%
2
5%
2
5%
2
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
5%
2
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
PASIVOS
PASIVOS CORRIENTES
15
Proveedores
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
8
6
9
6
10
6
10
6
11
6
13
6
14
6
15
6
17
6
19
Dividendos x Pagar
Dividendos Pagados
Otros Acreedores
18
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
19
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
2
6
2
6
2
6
2
6
2
15
2
15
2
15
2
15
2
15
2
25
0
16
0
6
0
5
0
4
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
0
4
0
6
0
7
0
9
0
11
0
14
0
16
0
19
0
22
0
26
2
10%
2
2
10%
3
2
10%
5
2
10%
8
2
10%
11
2
10%
14
3
10%
18
3
10%
23
3
10%
29
3
10%
35
16
17
22
23
Capitalizaciones
Reservas
24
Incremento de reserva
% de Utilidad Neta Ao Anterior
Revalorizacin del Patrimonio
25
Utilidades Retenidas
Dividendos pagados
18
0
33
0
49
0
67
0
86
0
107
0
130
0
156
0
184
0
215
0
26
19
19
19
19
19
16
19
20
21
23
26
28
31
35
38
TESORERIA
EMPRESA X
CIFRAS EN MILLONES DE PESOS
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
UTILIDAD NETA
16.1
18.7
19.8
21.3
23.2
25.6
28.3
31.4
34.7
38.4
VARIACIN DE ACTIVOS
ACTIVOS CORRIENTES
-0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
1
3
Disponible
Cuentas por Cobrar (Deudores)
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
5
6
Inventarios
Pagos x Anticipado
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-2.0
10.5
3.1
-2.1
10.0
-0.9
0.4
0.0
0.0
9.2
3.2
-2.2
10.0
-2.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
8.0
3.3
-2.4
10.0
-3.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
6.9
3.4
-2.5
10.0
-4.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
6.0
3.5
-2.6
10.0
-5.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
5.3
3.6
-2.8
10.0
-6.1
0.6
0.0
0.0
4.9
3.7
-2.9
10.0
-6.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
4.5
3.9
-3.0
10.0
-7.1
0.7
0.0
0.0
4.0
4.0
-3.1
10.0
-7.6
0.7
0.0
0.0
3.6
4.2
-3.3
10.0
-8.1
0.8
0.0
VARIACIN DE PASIVOS
PASIVOS CORRIENTES
Obligaciones Fin. de Corto Plazo
Proveedores
Impuestos y Retenciones
Dividendos x Pagar
Otros Acreedores
Otros Pasivos Corrientes
PASIVOS LARGO PLAZO
Obligaciones Fin. de Largo Plazo
Otros Pasivos de Largo Plazo
4.2
-2.0
0.1
6.9
-1.0
0.1
0.1
8.4
10.4
-2.0
1.5
0.0
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
-9.6
-9.6
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.1
-9.9
-9.9
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.1
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.1
1.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
0.0
0.1
1.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
0.1
1.6
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
0.0
0.2
1.8
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
PATRIMONIO
Capital
Revalorizacin del Patrimonio
Dividendos
0.9
0.0
0.9
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.9
0.0
1.9
0.0
2.4
0.0
2.4
0.0
2.9
0.0
2.9
0.0
3.4
0.0
3.4
0.0
4.1
0.0
4.1
0.0
4.9
0.0
4.9
0.0
5.7
0.0
5.7
0.0
6.6
0.0
6.6
0.0
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
25
20.1
1.7
3.5
15.5
19.0
22.7
27.6
31.9
36.5
41.6
Caja Inicial
Crdito de Tesorera
2.0
0.0
22.1
0.0
23.8
0.0
27.3
0.0
42.8
0.0
61.8
0.0
84.5
0.0
112.1
0.0
143.9
0.0
180.5
0.0
Caja Final
22.1
23.8
27.3
42.8
61.8
84.5
112.1
143.9
180.5
222.1
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
30.0
32.7
9.9
22.8
34.3
10.8
23.5
36.1
11.3
24.8
38.4
11.9
26.4
41.1
12.7
28.4
44.3
13.6
30.7
48.0
14.6
33.4
52.1
15.8
36.3
56.6
17.2
39.4
61.5
18.7
42.8
3.0
25.8
4.4
27.9
5.8
30.6
7.0
33.4
8.0
36.4
8.8
39.6
9.4
42.9
10.1
46.4
10.7
50.1
11.3
54.2
-6.0
1.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-7.1
-0.1
-6.9
-0.1
-0.3
1.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.4
-0.1
-1.3
-0.1
0.5
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.8
-0.1
-0.6
-0.1
0.4
1.3
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.9
-0.1
-0.7
-0.1
0.2
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.2
-0.1
-1.0
-0.1
0.1
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.4
-0.1
-1.2
-0.1
0.1
1.7
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.6
-0.1
-1.3
-0.1
0.0
1.8
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.8
-0.1
-1.5
-0.1
0.0
1.9
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.9
-0.1
-1.6
-0.1
0.0
2.1
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-2.1
-0.2
-1.8
-0.2
3.1
0.4
3.2
0.4
3.3
0.5
3.4
0.5
3.5
0.5
3.6
0.6
3.7
0.6
3.9
0.7
4.0
0.7
4.2
0.8
28.3
24.6
26.4
29.1
32.2
35.3
38.5
41.8
45.4
49.2
-13.3%
ok
7.3%
ok
10.5%
alto
10.3%
alto
9.7%
alto
9.0%
alto
8.7%
alto
8.6%
alto
8.5%
alto
7.9%
-81.5%
9.6%
81.0%
9.3%
68.2%
9.0%
70.2%
8.7%
74.1%
8.4%
77.2%
8.1%
79.0%
8.1%
82.3%
8.1%
85.6%
2.1
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.0
3.3
12%
4.2
14%
4.3
13%
4.3
12%
4.3
11%
4.4
10%
4.6
10%
4.7
9%
4.9
9%
1
3
4
5
6
15
16
18
INDICADORES
-2.5
-10%
0
41
11
25
5
56%
52%
50%
48%
48%
47%
47%
48%
48%
48%
23
45
12
28
5
24
50
13
31
6
25
55
14
35
6
26
60
15
38
7
28
65
16
41
7
31
70
18
45
8
33
76
19
49
9
36
82
20
52
9
39
89
22
56
10
43
95
24
61
11
SUPUESTOS DE VALORACIN
EMPRESA X
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
0.75
0.54
0.74
0.54
0.63
0.54
0.57
0.54
0.56
0.54
0.56
0.54
0.55
0.54
0.55
0.54
0.55
0.54
0.55
0.54
57%
33%
6.2%
54%
33%
6.2%
24%
33%
6.2%
7%
33%
6.2%
4%
33%
6.2%
3%
33%
6.2%
2%
33%
6.2%
1%
33%
6.2%
1%
33%
6.2%
1%
33%
6.2%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
9.9%
0.7%
9.9%
0.4%
9.9%
0.7%
9.9%
0.3%
9.9%
0.4%
9.9%
0.2%
9.9%
0.2%
9.9%
0.2%
9.9%
0.2%
9.9%
0.2%
10.7%
7.1%
10.4%
6.9%
10.6%
7.3%
10.3%
7.1%
10.3%
7.3%
10.1%
7.2%
10.1%
7.2%
10.1%
7.2%
10.1%
7.2%
10.1%
7.2%
6.8%
4.7%
7.4%
5.3%
7.5%
5.4%
7.1%
5.0%
7.0%
4.9%
7.0%
5.0%
7.0%
5.0%
7.0%
5.0%
7.0%
5.0%
7.0%
5.0%
Spread (EA)
Beneficio Tributario
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
2.0%
33.0%
4.6%
5.0%
5.0%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
6.9%
7.1%
7.3%
7.4%
7.4%
7.4%
7.4%
7.4%
7.4%
7.4%
4.9%
2.0%
5.1%
2.0%
5.3%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
Beneficio Tributario
Costo Promedio Deuda en USD, en Pesos, con Beneficio Tributario (E.A.)
33.0%
4.6%
33.0%
4.7%
33.0%
4.9%
33.0%
4.9%
33.0%
4.9%
33.0%
4.9%
33.0%
4.9%
33.0%
4.9%
33.0%
4.9%
33.0%
4.9%
3. ESTRUCTURA DE CAPITAL
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Patrimonio
Deuda en Pesos
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
70.0%
20.0%
Deuda en USD
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
8.9%
8.7%
8.9%
8.6%
8.7%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
1. COSTO DE PATRIMONIO
(Promedio Mercado)
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
Puntaje
Menor
0-4 Riesgo >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mayor Riesgo
Tamao de la compaa
Acceso a capital patrimonial
1
1
0
Multinacional
Transa en Bolsa
1
Muy grande
Grupo Ec.
2
Grande
S.A.
3
Mediana
Limitada
4
Pequea
Unipersonal
0
1
Muy fcil
Monopolio
Fcil
Oligopolio
Dificil
Lider
Muy Dificil
Medio
Imposible
Pequeo
Nivel de la gerencia
Dependencia de empleados claves
0
2
Muy preparado
Atomizacin
Experiencial
nico gerente
0
2
Disponibilidad ilimitada
Muy flexible
No disponibilidad
Rigidez absoluta
Produccin propia
Concentracin proveedores
Concentracin de clientes
0
2
2
100%
Atomizacin
Atomizacin
0%
Unico proveedor
Unico cliente
1
2
Alta
Cobertura ilimitada
Nula
Dificil cobertura
0
0
SI Integrado
Permanente
Informacin manual
Inexistente
Sistemas de Calidad
Riesgo geogrfico
0
4
Certificado
Zona de alta seguridad
No existente
Zona de baja seguridad
0
4.80%
Certificado
No existente
1.2%
0.0%
2.7%
VALORACIN
EMPRESA X
Fecha Valoracin:
31 de Marzo 2012
2012p
2013p
28
Costo de Capital
Factor de Descuento
Valor Presente Flujo de Caja Libre Anual
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
1.55
23
1.68
23
1.82
23
1.98
23
2.15
23
2012p
19.7
18.2
49
871
1.43
23
21
45
9%
628
6.0
19.8
42
2021p
1.31
22
13.4
38
2020p
9%
11
649
6.5
21.6
35
2019p
1.21
22
20.9
32
2018p
9%
636
2
29
2017p
1.11
22
26
2016p
9%
231
405
MULTIPLOS DE VALORACIN
25
2015p
1.02
28
2014p
9.0%
180.0
8.0%
160.0
7.0%
140.0
6.0%
Crecimiento
Millones de Pesos
VENTAS NETAS
200.0
120.0
5.0%
100.0
4.0%
80.0
3.0%
60.0
2.0%
40.0
1.0%
20.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p 2021p
0.0%
EBITDA
100
20%
90
10%
80
0%
70
-10%
60
-20%
50
-30%
40
-40%
30
-50%
20
-60%
10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012p 2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p 2021p
-70%
Crecimiento
Millones de Pesos
0.0
MARGEN
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012p 2013p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
Margen EB ITDA
15%
180
10%
160
140
5%
120
100
0%
80
-5%
60
40
-10%
20
0
2012p
2013p
2014p
2015p
2016p
2017p
2018p
2019p
2020p
2021p
-15%
Crecimiento
Millones de Pesos
Margen B ruto
2014p
Beta Desapalancado
1 (Promedio Mercado)
0.54
2 Advertising
3 Aerospace/Defense
0.51
0.56
4 Air Transport
5 Apparel
0.37
0.25
0.69
7 Auto Parts
8 Bank
0.73
0.36
9 Banks (Regional)
10 Beverage
0.16
0.47
11 Beverage (Alcoholic)
0.54
12 Biotechnology
13 Broadcasting
0.75
0.73
14
15
16
17
18
0.51
0.47
0.46
0.87
0.54
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Chemical (Diversified)
Chemical (Specialty)
Coal & Related Energy
Computer Services
Computer Software
Computers/Peripherals
Construction
Diversified
0.74
0.66
0.71
0.75
0.84
0.57
0.51
0.48
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
Educational Services
Electrical Equipment
Electronics
Electronics (Consumer & Office)
Engineering
Entertainment
Environmental & Waste Services
Farming/Agriculture
Financial Svcs.
Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insu
Food Processing
Food Wholesalers
Furn/Home Furnishings
Healthcare Services
Heathcare Information and Techn
Heathcare Products & Services
Heathcare Services
Heavy Construction
Homebuilding
Hotel/Gaming
Household Products
Information Services
Insurance (General)
0.48
0.61
0.55
0.58
0.42
0.79
0.73
0.48
0.31
0.44
0.47
0.43
0.59
0.50
0.83
0.65
0.27
0.64
0.48
0.51
0.62
0.86
0.30
Sector
Beta Desapalancado
50 Insurance (Life)
51 Insurance (Prop/Cas.)
0.36
0.43
0.66
0.35
54 Machinery
0.60
0.74
0.53
57 Oil/Gas (Integrated)
58 Oil/Gas (Production and Explorati
0.71
0.86
59 Oil/Gas Distribution
0.48
60 Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
61 Packaging & Container
0.62
0.47
62 Paper/Forest Products
63 Pharma & Drugs
0.47
0.61
64 Power
0.34
65 Precious Metals
66 Publshing & Newspapers
1.01
0.52
67
68
69
70
71
R.E.I.T.
Railroad
Real Estate
Real Estate (Development)
Real Estate (Operations & Service
0.26
0.49
0.49
0.50
0.37
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Recreation
Reinsurance
Restaurant
Retail (Automotive)
Retail (Building Supply)
Retail (Distributors)
Retail (General)
Retail (Grocery and Food)
0.53
0.70
0.47
0.42
0.43
0.46
0.56
0.54
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
Retail (Internet)
Retail (Special Lines)
Rubber& Tires
Semiconductor
Semiconductor Equip
Shipbuilding & Marine
Shoe
Steel
Telecom (Wireless)
Telecom. Equipment
Telecom. Services
Thrift
Tobacco
Tranportation
Trucking
Utility (General)
Utility (Water)
0.55
0.67
0.47
0.73
0.77
0.43
0.59
0.53
0.56
0.77
0.47
0.62
0.33
0.52
0.43
0.19
0.44